India vs China - War Gaming Scenarios : Related News , Updates , Discussions & Analysis .

Can you elaborate more?

DRDO started doing really well once Modi came in. It's not related to Modi, it was a plan that was put in place back in 2010, 11, 12 etc, built on the back of work carried out in the 90s and 2000s. It's been even better in the private sector, although they don't conduct research at the same level as DRDO, they are compensating by saving time and delivering quality, largely due to the Modi govt's support.

A lot of stuff is still not out in the open, but you will start seeing it soon, over the next few years, like armoured vehicles, materials research, hypersonics etc. I think the more passive Western analysts will only place us on the global map once AMCA and IUSAV start flying for example. And then, a lot of people outside the country do not know that we have progressed a lot when it comes to SSNs and SSBNs, enough to compete globally. Defence electronics takes the crown, with the IAF announcing we have become largely self-reliant in this segment. Some companies in the private sector are claiming that they can deliver even better products than what DRDO's made. We have achieved self-reliance in missile tech as well.

Most of this has stayed invisible to journos and other analysts with access to old information, whereas active analysts are staying up-to-date with our advancements, 'cause they probably have more recent information working for their govts and companies. So people who know about it are still silent due to the nature of their work, whereas analysts outside the system have given India very little attention, so very few articles about them.

It's not their fault anyway, we may have caught up with the West in the lab, but we are yet to show real world results.

2010:
More than 70% of India’s defence purchases are from firms in Russia, Israel, Europe and the US.

2023:
India will spend 75 per cent of its defence capital in 2023-24 on procurement from the domestic industry, up from 68 per cent in 2022-23, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Wednesday.

This massive change is yet to be witnessed internationally. Naturally, companies and countries already know about this.
 
@Domobran7

Kindly present your Rafale vs J-20 fight scenario in this thread:)
Rafale vs F-35 would also suffice. We'd like a neutral perspective . Except that Croatia like India uses the Rafales so we're a concerned party here too .
Picard has done numerous Rafale vs F-35 fight analysis. Rafale vs J-20, don't think he has ever done that. This is most perfect thread to do so, IMO.
That would require quite some time. To do a comparison, I would first need to redo my F-35 analysis (they managed to fix some of the issues I noted in the original analysis, I believe) and also do the J-20 analysis, which I haven't done at all.

So I can't do it right now. It is a project for the future.
 
That would require quite some time. To do a comparison, I would first need to redo my F-35 analysis (they managed to fix some of the issues I noted in the original analysis, I believe) and also do the J-20 analysis, which I haven't done at all.

So I can't do it right now. It is a project for the future.
Kindly take up this project quickly. With US vs China war for Taiwan and India vs China war looming over border disputes, Rafale vs J-20 and F-35 vs J-20 makes lots of sense.

Eagerly waiting:)
 
The number of patents granted worldwide still sees China on top. IBM is a poor example because they don't have the funds to commercialise what they patent. Do you think China has money problems?
IBM didn't have funds?? :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:... Dude, I would seriously recommend you to stop smoking whatever shit it is.

On a serious note, if you do not have a logical answer, please take your time and do some reading. That will help improving the quality of conversation.
The best way you can judge a paper is how many times it was cited by others, and it's pretty high there as well. You should read the report.

Granted the majority of what they release is crap, but the stuff that's not crap is very competitive with the West.
That's not the best way, that's one of the laziest way. A better way is to consult multiple experts in each domain and take their opinion. But this is extremely hard and time consuming process. I have done this during my college days and initial years of my professional life. More than 99% of the papers published even in IEEE transactions are purely theoretical and never saw the light of the day. Based on my personal experience I can confidently extrapolate 99.99% of Chinese publications are pure crap.
Me and many other China watchers who actually understand the threat they pose.

They are functioning at a level they shouldn't be at their economic level. We are looking ahead, not just going by what have demonstrated to date.

Recall the time when you were completely against starting semiconductor production in India, until the Americans sanctioned both China and Russia? You needed to experience the loss before you could change your mind. There are many people who can anticipate a loss before it happens.
China is a threat and in multiple ways. But I don't think they are the 10 feet people you are claiming. That's the difference.

They did function at a level they shouldn't be and that's coming straight out of their ego and not by logic. When you function out of your ego, you are bound to crash.

Regarding, semiconductor production in India, now I strongly suggest to start production in India. But we still can't be independent in next 15-20 years to nullify the impact of sanctions. Unless we create replacement of ASML we are doomed. So we need to keep our head down and operate till we are completely independent. China is paying the price for punching above it's weight.
Anyway, you are hung up on semiconductors, where even the paper says the Chinese are behind. So we are already on the same page here. There's 37 other sectors where they are ahead and are headed towards dominating or having a monopoly in many of those. So, while the West has a lead in Si-based semiconductors, the Chinese are ahead in nanomagnets research. So, some company in China could just show up one day with a namomagnets based computer that can blow silicon out of the water. So you need to figure out if today's semiconductor industry will survive against future disruptive technologies, 'cause, just like ChatGPT or Sputnik, when it happens, it will happen overnight.
I'm not hung up on semiconductors, it's a critical domain without which the world seizes to function. Regarding new technologies, let me give an example. I have been reading about quantum computing since 2000. After 20 years and tens of billions of dollars spent in research, have you seen any mainstream products so far?
Forget about any new technologies. Even in Silicon, any significant change takes more than 10 years from proven concept ( not research paper) to commercialization.

The claim "China is ahead in 37 sectors" based on number of "CHINESE PATENTS" and " CHINESE RESEARCH PAPERS" is deeply flawed and needs more substance.
 
IMG_20230307_213355.jpg


Apparently the rankings in the Aero Engine Technology domain including hypersonics is ( don't hold your breath ) as follows :

1.) China
2.) US
3.) India
4.) UK
5.) Iran


There's a perfectly logical explanation for this . It was done based on the number of - yes , you've guessed it right , the papers & patents generated the previous year .

So , pls remember to ask "Expert China Watcher " whether he actually plans on drafting posts like these or he makes it up on the go .

Besides this post was made 3 pm in the afternoon . No 8 pm excuse can be offered , as well .

Jajajajajajajajajajajaajajajajajajaja....
 
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IBM didn't have funds?? :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:... Dude, I would seriously recommend you to stop smoking whatever shit it is.

On a serious note, if you do not have a logical answer, please take your time and do some reading. That will help improving the quality of conversation.

There's a limit to how much IP can be used if you limit yourself to just a few fields, while conducting research even outside your market.

Apple keeps buying patents via acquisitions, but how much do you think they use?

Companies create or buy patents to keep competition out, even if they don't intend to enter those markets, either due to lack of interest, lack of competence or lack of money (relative to the RoI). I thought you would know this already.

That's not the best way, that's one of the laziest way. A better way is to consult multiple experts in each domain and take their opinion. But this is extremely hard and time consuming process. I have done this during my college days and initial years of my professional life. More than 99% of the papers published even in IEEE transactions are purely theoretical and never saw the light of the day. Based on my personal experience I can confidently extrapolate 99.99% of Chinese publications are pure crap.

An expert put it at 90%. Because 10% are marketable as per him.

China is a threat and in multiple ways. But I don't think they are the 10 feet people you are claiming. That's the difference.

They did function at a level they shouldn't be and that's coming straight out of their ego and not by logic. When you function out of your ego, you are bound to crash.

They are being underestimated in every field. Reason: Lack of people to people contact.

Even their military is opague, and even military analysts admit their predictions about China have consistently been wrong. Even Doval admitted the same back in 2017 alongside I believe Chief of Staff Mullen (?), when he said the Chinese achieved in 2012 what the US had assumed would be achieved only by 2017.

For example, as per me, they will match USN in the Western Pacific before 2027, all of the Pacific before 2032, all of the USN by 2037 and by 2050, they will be twice as big. But as per most experts, they will match the USN only by 2050. Absolutely ridiculous, one only has to look at their production capacity to get a clue.

Regarding, semiconductor production in India, now I strongly suggest to start production in India. But we still can't be independent in next 15-20 years to nullify the impact of sanctions. Unless we create replacement of ASML we are doomed. So we need to keep our head down and operate till we are completely independent. China is paying the price for punching above it's weight.

We don't need independence at the top end, at least in Si. The Si race has been lost before we even began. The next step is gallium, boron, graphene, nanomagnets, quantum etc. Our need for Si is only in the other 70% of industrial applications that will use 14, 22, and 28nm processes over the next 15 years.

I'm not hung up on semiconductors, it's a critical domain without which the world seizes to function. Regarding new technologies, let me give an example. I have been reading about quantum computing since 2000. After 20 years and tens of billions of dollars spent in research, have you seen any mainstream products so far?
Forget about any new technologies. Even in Silicon, any significant change takes more than 10 years from proven concept ( not research paper) to commercialization.

You are hung up on semiconductors of today. The paper talks of the future.

The claim "China is ahead in 37 sectors" based on number of "CHINESE PATENTS" and " CHINESE RESEARCH PAPERS" is deeply flawed and needs more substance.

The paper is using current information to predict future events. If we actually wait for more substance, ie, wait for the Chinese to actually take real world lead, then that basically means the Chinese have taken a lead and we are too late.

The point of the paper was to bring to notice the seriousness of the issue. There are students and researchers in China who are publishing papers, it means they are already competing at a pretty high level within their system. As competition intensifies, the quality will increase too.

However:
In 2022, Chinese papers outnumbered US papers by a 2-to-1 ratio in the top 1% most cited artificial intelligence research. Similar patterns can be seen with China leading in the top 1% most cited papers in nanoscience, chemistry and transportation.

So there you go, it's actually a real problem.

One of the dumb requirements some Chinese universities had was their PhD candidates needed to get published in an international journal to graduate. They changed the rule in 2020.
 
Ignorants living up to his name.

Patents and research papers are exactly what's being discussed here, not products. Patents and research papers is what will give us "products" in the future. And the report is saying the Chinese will end up making all these "products" that don't exist yet.

Someone's definitely made the wrong "product" a friend:
858bbb941b0fe3c15abcae9bdff9aaa5.jpg
 
Please check for who occupies 30th spot in this list compiled in 2020 & also check for the entry in the number of such papers produced. The list has been culled from journals classified by SCOPUS whose credentials can be verified on the same site. Please note that the occupant at 30 is ahead of developed countries like Norway , Austria , Israel etc. While you're at it please check for who occupies the spot for 15 , 24 & 26 as well.

 
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Absolutely true . For whatever comes out now , post 8 pm is the gospel truth .

The wise know it as In Vino Veritas .

Not sure about the Chinese but I'm dead sure Iran will be one of the world's leading players in aero engine tech particularly the ACE class of turbofans & hypersonic development .

And China is already there as far as such tech goes barely 6 -7 yrs after importing the Su-35 which many speculated was for studying & copying it's engine . I'm sure the WS-10 which'd be going into the J-20 is of the ACE class of engines . No question about that .

The second tranche of an equivalent amount of FAs to be purchased from Russia never materialized thus confirming those suspicions as to the real reason why those FAs were purchased.

As an analogy , I'm guessing Resident Story Teller is unacquainted with the film making process . Not all good film scripts make good films & vice versa. In fact in Hollywood , the ratio is something like 1-5 : 200 .

Finally , a parting shot . Very apt for the situation we're discussing I think .

images (16).jpeg
 
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Su-35 was to study "supermaneuverability", i.e., how TVC is incorporated with the FCS. That's why Chinese imported 24 and then stopped. Earlier they were looking for 48 jets.

Reportedly, they have now put TVC in J-10C and are going to put TVC in WS-15 engine when it goes into operation with J-20B/C.
 
Su -27 , Su-30 MKK , MiG -29 all have TVC with the Su-27 & MKK having FBW too. Except for the MiG-29 they had the other 2 FAs with them since ages . Besides procuring TVC by paying the Russians would've been much more easier than buying the entire FA.

While Russians would've been amenable towards sale of ToT for the TVC they wouldn't even consider it for the engines .

 
Su -27 , Su-30 MKK , MiG -29 all have TVC with the Su-27 & MKK having FBW too.
In the entire Flanker family only two jets have operational TVC. First is our MKI and its derivatives MKM/MKA/SM/SME etc. And the other is Su-35S.

Rest don't have TVC at all.
Except for the MiG-29 they had the other 2 FAs with them since ages . Besides procuring TVC by paying the Russians would've been much more easier than buying the entire FA.

While Russians would've been amenable towards sale of ToT for the TVC they wouldn't even consider it for the engines .

[URL
Actually the Russians were ready to sell 117-S. It is still up for export. But Chinese wanted to learn how TVC nozzles work with advance FBW in order to integrate the learnings in J-20 et all.

Su-30MKK, vanilla Su-27 never had TVC ever. Su-57/Su-30MKI(and derivatives)/Su-35S/F-22 these are only operational planes to have TVC(not counting VTOL planes like F-35B/Harrier etc.).
 
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@randomradio

Since we're discussing Rafale/MKI vs J-20, this thread is perfect place for this debate.

It all depends on how we are going to find those passive J-20s at a decent enough range while being able to hide ourselves.

Years ago, Dr. Carlo Kopp of 'Air Power Australia' wrote an analysis regarding F-35 vs Su-30MKI/Su-35, and pointed out how advance Flanker is going to vanquish VLO. The analysis is also quite valid for Rafale vs J-20.

This picture completely tells us how a non-stealthy jet can engage VLO(through advance ESM/IRST):

Screenshot_20230308-163944_Chrome.jpg


As you can see, years ago he predicted that if we put a good RWR/ESM and QWIP based IRST(both are about to happen), then Su-30MKI's chances of detecting VLO like F-35 and J-20 increases multiple times. Rafale already has got an awesome ESM and now an advance IRST too.
So the above picture is true for both Rafale vs J-20, 1 vs 1.

Now if we come to your other scenario of one J-20 emitting and rest following back as shooters. Well thanks to new B-Net, our Rafale and Su-30MKI can exchange real live data very quickly.

Lets look at these images first:

Screenshot_20230308-163858_Chrome.jpg



Screenshot_20230308-163845_Chrome.jpg



Source of all images: Air Power Australia Sukhoi Flankers - The Shifting Balance of Regional Air Power


In the first image, a group of Flankers are completely passive and are using triangulation technique with their IRST. Second group is doing the same but using radar this time around. The B-Net will allow us to do all of this.

These techniques and much more advance one could be employed by our Rafale/MKI team too. Don't you think so? If yes, then IAF will give proper reply to PLAAF over the Himalayas.
 
@randomradio

Since we're discussing Rafale/MKI vs J-20, this thread is perfect place for this debate.



Years ago, Dr. Carlo Kopp of 'Air Power Australia' wrote an analysis regarding F-35 vs Su-30MKI/Su-35, and pointed out how advance Flanker is going to vanquish VLO. The analysis is also quite valid for Rafale vs J-20.

This picture completely tells us how a non-stealthy jet can engage VLO(through advance ESM/IRST):

View attachment 26856

As you can see, years ago he predicted that if we put a good RWR/ESM and QWIP based IRST(both are about to happen), then Su-30MKI's chances of detecting VLO like F-35 and J-20 increases multiple times. Rafale already has got an awesome ESM and now an advance IRST too.
So the above picture is true for both Rafale vs J-20, 1 vs 1.

Now if we come to your other scenario of one J-20 emitting and rest following back as shooters. Well thanks to new B-Net, our Rafale and Su-30MKI can exchange real live data very quickly.

Lets look at these images first:

View attachment 26857


View attachment 26858


Source of all images: Air Power Australia Sukhoi Flankers - The Shifting Balance of Regional Air Power


In the first image, a group of Flankers are completely passive and are using triangulation technique with their IRST. Second group is doing the same but using radar this time around. The B-Net will allow us to do all of this.

These techniques and much more advance one could be employed by our Rafale/MKI team too. Don't you think so? If yes, then IAF will give proper reply to PLAAF over the Himalayas.

If the J-20 is in the same class as the F-22, while most definitely carrying better hardware, then the Rafale can't defeat it, especially so with the numbers the Chinese already have. IRST, ESM, none of that will help, all secondary sensors. EA doesn't help either because you become an EM source for a passive J-20. In fact a radar can be used to force the enemy to give away its position by making them use EA.

I doubt airborne multistatic capabilities are a thing yet.
 
If the J-20 is in the same class as the F-22, while most definitely carrying better hardware, then the Rafale can't defeat it, especially so with the numbers the Chinese already have. IRST, ESM, none of that will help, all secondary sensors. EA doesn't help either because you become an EM source for a passive J-20. In fact a radar can be used to force the enemy to give away its position by making them use EA.

I doubt airborne multistatic capabilities are a thing yet.
What if we have dedicated EA jets like some MKI Growlersky which stay back and put full on barrage jamming(while other fighters move forward under this jamming cover)? This should take away the Chinese AWACS and J-20s' radar advantage and allow our fighters to close in. Also it allows Rafale/upgraded MKI to use their long range IRST and blow J-20 out using Meteor/MICA-IR/Derby-ER/ASRAAM?

Even US uses E/A-18G despite having VLO jets. We can't say that EA is useless. It must have its advantages.
 
What if we have dedicated EA jets like some MKI Growlersky which stay back and put full on barrage jamming(while other fighters move forward under this jamming cover)? This should take away the Chinese AWACS and J-20s' radar advantage and allow our fighters to close in. Also it allows Rafale/upgraded MKI to use their long range IRST and blow J-20 out using Meteor/MICA-IR/Derby-ER/ASRAAM?

Growler-class jamming cannot defeat stealth.

There's no such thing as long range IRST against a radar. Against the J-20's radar range of 200-400Km, the only thing the IRST will pick up is the boost stage plume of the missile fired at the Rafale. Another problem with IRST is it's not all-weather.

So forget about IRST, it's a red herring. People like to push it, but radar detection is paramount if we are to fight the J-20. The same with ESM, it's largely useless when dealing with a stealth jet with a reliable radar. A fully loaded Rafale without ACT will be detected from hundreds of Kms away. If Rafale turns on its EA, it will still get a missile up its tailpipe due to passive tracking. In either case, it's screwed. IRST will tell the Rafale how badly it's screwed. In fact, the J-20's IRST is of greater threat to the Rafale than vice versa, 'cause both active and passive means give the J-20 first detection.

The best that the Rafale can do is survive an attack. But that doesn't win us the air. The Rafale will have to be utilised against ground threats, while avoiding the J-20.

MKI is screwed by default. It needs to be teamed up with a passive stealth jet if it's to be useful. Rafale was that jet, but only if it's got as good or better hardware than the J-20. If it does, great. If not, the answer is evident.

MKI MLU and F-22 MLU are both aimed for 2026. Both Taiwan war and Ladakh war could happen in 2025. We have to fight with what we have, both of us.

Even US uses E/A-18G despite having VLO jets. We can't say that EA is useless. It must have its advantages.

As per Gen Hostage, the Growler is not a first day of war aircraft.

Barrage jamming will only invite an attack, it's becoming useless. It's not suitable for air combat anyway.
 
Growler-class jamming cannot defeat stealth.

There's no such thing as long range IRST against a radar. Against the J-20's radar range of 200-400Km, the only thing the IRST will pick up is the boost stage plume of the missile fired at the Rafale. Another problem with IRST is it's not all-weather.

So forget about IRST, it's a red herring. People like to push it, but radar detection is paramount if we are to fight the J-20. The same with ESM, it's largely useless when dealing with a stealth jet with a reliable radar. A fully loaded Rafale without ACT will be detected from hundreds of Kms away. If Rafale turns on its EA, it will still get a missile up its tailpipe due to passive tracking. In either case, it's screwed. IRST will tell the Rafale how badly it's screwed. In fact, the J-20's IRST is of greater threat to the Rafale than vice versa, 'cause both active and passive means give the J-20 first detection.

The best that the Rafale can do is survive an attack. But that doesn't win us the air. The Rafale will have to be utilised against ground threats, while avoiding the J-20.

MKI is screwed by default. It needs to be teamed up with a passive stealth jet if it's to be useful. Rafale was that jet, but only if it's got as good or better hardware than the J-20. If it does, great. If not, the answer is evident.

MKI MLU and F-22 MLU are both aimed for 2026. Both Taiwan war and Ladakh war could happen in 2025. We have to fight with what we have, both of us.



As per Gen Hostage, the Growler is not a first day of war aircraft.

Barrage jamming will only invite an attack, it's becoming useless. It's not suitable for air combat anyway.
Chinese have developed their own Growler aka J-16D. It's a dedicated EA plane. Why develop such a fighter if not to be used in first day to jam enemy comm. and help VLO planes to break the door? Maybe because you want to remain silent while trying to break IADS protected by advance fighters that can exchange data. Ok.


But in the same article which mentioned about General Hostage's comments regarding not sending E/A-18G along with F-35 during the first day had this too:

Screenshot_20230309-040322_Chrome.jpg


Source: Gen. Mike Hostage On The F-35; No Growlers Needed When War Starts - Breaking Defense

I think Rafale/Su-30 working with S-400/MRSAM and our other IADS are good enough to thwart Chinese attack even spear-headed by J-20.

The real problem is how Rafale/MKI combo does inside China vs J-20 and co. With what you've written, the scenario doesn't look too good for us.
 



Worth considering from the PoV of this thread. All we've is Baba Kalyani & the OFBs of whom the less said the better.

Yet we see no paper on National Security as Gen Narawane pointed out till now , neither are we seeing any risk mitigation strategies being reported to cater to situations like these nor are we seeing the modernization or privatization plans for the OFBs or a tie up with the pvt sector to cater to such emergencies.

And God Forbid if we're to face upto China before they take on Taiwan , then we get to bear the brunt of Chinese force , where Chinese production capacities dwarf Russia's by miles what to speak of us.

While mountainous warfare will be of a very different nature as compared to the plains & India's no Ukraine but then neither is China, Russia.

I sincerely hope our security planners are alive to this dilemma & act instead of reacting later by which time it'd be too late.
 
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