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IAF advantages over PLAAF analysis by Group Captain TP Srivastava(former Mig-21 & Mig-29 pilot):

China ‘Zooming Ahead’ As World’s Mightiest & Meanest Air Force; But Why Has PLAAF Shied Away From Aerial Battle With India?​


Scars of the 1962 debacle against China remain in our thought, and most Indians believe that ‘The Dragon’ might swallow India if it decides to do so. This template remains fixated in Indian minds courtesy of our strategists, who project China as a superpower vis-à-vis India.

One of the most critical and pertinent questions that these strategists do not address is the fact as to why the Chinese Army withdrew after having reached strategically important Tezpur in North-East India.

The answer is elementary – non-existent logistics infrastructure.

China illegally occupies 37,185 sq km, called Aksai Chin. In addition, Pakistan ceded 5187 sq km to China for building the Karakoram highway. China claims the entire Arunachal as well as territory in and around Tawang.

But these remain as claims only. Yet another essential aspect is the non-participation of the Chinese military during the 1965 and 1971 wars with Pakistan. Likewise, China maintained a clear distance during the 1999 Kargil conflict.

If China is as powerful as is projected/deemed by numerous strategists, including from the military, why is it that China avoids escalation of hostilities? Be it the Sum Darang Cho incident nearly four decades ago or the Galwan clash recently, China does not allow further escalation

The verbal war continues. The Indo-China border issue is complex and unlikely to be resolved soon. Hence, the instability in relations and uneasy peace will continue.

Chinese Limitations

China is severely handicapped by its inability to bring its Air Power to neutralize the highly offensive posture of the IAF. Due to distance, the Chinese Air Force (PLAAF) cannot access the Indo-China border from its airfields in mainland China.

PLAAF has tried to build nearly a dozen airfields in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). PLAAF capability from these airfields will remain extremely limited due to the elevation of airfields in TAR, which is at least three kilometers or more.

Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)

Chinese Theater Command concept has placed Chinese Air Power elements under the command of the Army, hence the nomenclature. China has five Theater Commands. China’s Western Theater Command controls operations in Xinjiang, TAR, and the border with India.

Regarding the number of aircraft, the Chinese Air Force is our neighborhood’s largest Air Power segment. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is the third largest in the world. When we look at PLAAF capability in India, we examine PLAAF operational capability ex Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR).


To evaluate PLAAF capability ex TAR, understanding regional geography and terrain is essential. Out of seven military Regions (MR) of the Chinese military, two are opposite India.

LANZHOU (MR) is opposite the Ladakh sector, and CHENGDU (MR) is opposite the northeastern region. The MRs are further subdivided into Military Districts (MDs). MDs facing us are:

  • Chengdu MR. Two MDs in this region are YUNAN (opposite Myanmar) and Xizang (opposite Assam, Sikkim, and Arunachal).
  • Lanzhou MR. South Xinjiang MD (opposite UP, HP, and Ladakh). East Xinjiang faces us, adjoining Ladakh.

PLAAF Airfields

There are 15 operational bases in these two regions from where PLAAF can launch air operations. If the airfields located in probable Tactical Battle Areas (TBA) are considered, the number reduces to five. These airfields are:-

  • Khotan (Lanzhou MR)
  • Hoping
  • Kongka Dzong (Chengdu MR)
  • Donshoon
  • Pangta
Except for Khotan, the other four airfields are at an average location of around 4000 meters. Khotan, at 1400 meters, is nearly at the same elevation as Srinagar. Pilots who have operated from Srinagar would understand the problems better.

Simply stated, an airplane and human being is identically affected by altitude. Both start puffing and panting with an increase in altitude. The load-carrying capacity drops markedly.

Due to high actual air speed at an altitude corresponding to the same indicated airspeed, landing and take-off runs are excessively long.


The remaining ten airfields in the region are Kashgar, Kunming, Paoshan, Jekundo, Chengdu, Petun, Mangshi, Nagchuka I & II, and Kantse.

PLAAF continues to depend upon obsolete/obsolescent aeroplanes viz Q-5, IL- 28, J-8, Tu-16 etc. The modern fleet comprises a mix of Su-27/30, JF-17, and J-20. Even a Su-30 will reach the TBA with minimal load due to the distances involved.

Q-5, IL-28, and J-8 are ineffective regarding action and load-carrying capacity radii. Tu-16 can be used with a sufficient load, but its employment in hilly terrain is highly doubtful.

Radar cover at medium and high levels is satisfactory despite vintage radars being operated. However, the low-level cover is virtually non-existent/ineffective due to terrain and fewer radars.

Most of the airfields have dedicated radar located at the base. The first-generation air defense weapons are the only protection available. The deployment of low-level SAMs is limited.

Airlift Capability

The Airlift capability of PLAAF is extremely limited due to the exponential reduction in load-carrying capacity at high altitudes. For instance, an IL 76 of the IAF can carry 40 tons from Chandigarh to Leh.

But on the return trip Leh-Chandigarh, it will barely carry less than half the load, may be lesser. Likewise, heli-lift capability reduces exponentially.

Even as a concept using helicopters for large-scale troop/equipment transfer within TAR is well nigh impossible; for instance, a Mi-17, which can lift around 2000kg at sea level, will carry a mere few hundred kg at PLAAF airfields. The capability to airdrop a fully equipped battalion-size force is unachievable.


Enhancement Of Capability With Force Multipliers

Force multipliers viz mid-air refuellers, airborne warning, and control systems, if used by PLAAF, will enhance their capability by a few notches but will remain well below the force levels required to cause any substantive attrition.

Weather

For eight months in a year (September to April), operations will be severely affected due to extremely low temperatures, icy strong surface winds, and extensive ice accumulation over the runway.

Few airfields, particularly in Chengdu MR, are affected by extensive fog. Sustained day/night operations are virtually impossible.

PLAAF Capability Ex TAR At A Glance

  • The only effective strike element is Su-27/30, JF-17s, and yet-to-be-operationally proven J-20.
  • Airfield infrastructure cannot support large-scale and sustained operations.
  • Extremely limited night operations are possible.
  • Tactical Battle Areas can be approached from very few directions due to terrain.
  • The nearest Indian airfields viz Bareilly, Gorakhpur, Bagdogra, Hashimara, Jorhat, Gauhati, Tezpur, Chabua, Mohanbari, and nearly a dozen Advance Landing Grounds will be around 4-500 km in most cases.
  • Strike elements of IAF will lift off with maximum load as all of these are at Sea Level, unlike PLAAF airfields.
  • Air Defense infrastructure is minimal and is in pockets. The chances of successful interception of the IAF strike element in TBA is virtually NIL. However, strike elements targeting PLAAF airfields will/may face air defense aircraft.
  • The Airlift capability of the PLAAF is grossly inadequate for any large-scale transfer of troops/equipment by air.
PLAAF capability ex TAR is severely limited and would remain so, irrespective of acquiring and employing more modern aircraft, which might be in their inventory by 2030. PLAAF elements based in mainland China will have no substantive effect on overall PLAAF performance ex TAR.

PLAAF operating out of TAR poses no worthwhile threat to our land forces, provided the IAF is free to use. Chinese land forces can/will be decimated in the TBA, and nuclear China is beyond the scope of this paper. The conventional tipped SSMs will also have little or no effect, even if used by PLAAF.

Chinese Options

China appreciates that the balance of conventional power due to terrain considerations and the inability of PLAAF to support Chinese Army operations and neutralize IAF capability, the Indian military will have the edge.

To ensure that ‘Galwan’ is not repeated, the Indian military must occupy the highest cold desert in strength around the year.

Indeed if our diplomacy fails and PLAAF operates out of bases in Myanmar and Bangladesh, our problems will increase exponentially.

China is an intelligent adversary. Facts are:

  • China understands that it cannot win a conventional war with India due to the inability of the PLAAF to support PLA operations by neutralizing IAF.
  • There are no winners in a nuclear exchange.
  • China has never supported Pakistan during any skirmish/war with India militarily.
  • China is aiming to attain superpower status ahead of the USA. Involvement in regional conflict is not China’s primary objective.
  • Border/territorial dispute claims and counter-claims by China and India will remain part of our diplomatic maneuvers.
  • If we change our policy from NFU to NBFU, unstable peace with China will be guaranteed.

Source: China 'Zooming Ahead' As World's Mightiest & Meanest Air Force; But Why Has PLAAF Shied Away From Aerial Battle With India?
 

Most of what's mentioned here will change overnight when the Chinese actually decide to attack.

For example, they are still building new infra. And SAMs are largely mobile so can be brought in quickly. They have low level SAMs too, the PLAGF have an old Tor copy called HQ-17A and the PLAAF have a Spyder-equivalent called HQ-64. Chinese low and medium level SAMs are significantly inferior to what we operate, so that's a saving grace. They have more long range SAMs than we do, but are similar in capability, and with 3 operational S-400 regiments we have enough for now, although a 4th one in Assam will definitely help. Sadly, the IA's low level SAMs are outdated.

But what we can say is the IAF will be able to support the IA's operations, so that's good.

Operations at altitude will be a problem, but the J-20B with WS-15 should kill that problem. It should be able to take off with 75% fuel and internal load with equivalent TWR as the MKI taking off from sea level. The rest of the terrain advantages he's mentioned will be to our benefit.

I don't think historical limitations in operations and logistics should be conflated with this era's problems. The Chinese are not gonna attack us without a proper plan in place.

I agree with him when he says a Sino-India war is unlikely at this time. But a war over Taiwan could change equations quickly.
 
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J-20B with WS-15 is still sometime away from full scale production and deployment. So, this article would remain valid for quite some time, I think.
 
People had laughed this off back in 2013:
On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose — the reclaiming of what Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42.

The 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025)
The 2nd War: “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030)
The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040)
The 4th War: “Reconquest” of Diaoyu Island [Senkaku] and Ryukyu Islands (Year 2040 to 2045)
The 5th War: Unification of Outer Mongolia (Year 2045 to 2050)
The 6th War: Taking back of lands lost to Russia (Year 2055 to 2060)


Would recommend reading the article in full.

The first 2 wars are with the US, followed by India, then the US again and then 2 wars involving Russia.

The dates may have slipped by a few years, but, if they take Taiwan, it's also possible to combine the 2nd and the 4th wars into one single big war, fought in a sequence over many years, a proper long war.

So a war with India could take place well after 2035. It makes sense if the IA and IAF are preparing for that date instead of around 2025.

It makes sense for the Chinese to focus on Taiwan and the SCS for now, both regions are existential threats to them. Taking the SCS may involve conquering some of their neighbours, like Philippines and Vietnam.
J-20B with WS-15 is still sometime away from full scale production and deployment. So, this article would remain valid for quite some time, I think.

The right question they need to ask the IAF is whether they can defeat the F-22. If they can, then things will be fine even if the Chinese have a better jet.
 
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China watchers can be divided into roughly two groups - the first one who looks on everything China does with suspicion & who deride or underplay everything coming out of China as far as achievements go only to amplify their inimical value & the second group who hold that China is already a super power with the west especially the US in a State of permanent & irrevocable decline who look upon every move of China as a master stroke likening these to strategems out of their ancient masters's treatises particularly ones like Zhuge Liang & everyone's favourite Sun Tzu or Sun Tzu(tiapa ) - as certain Indian twitterati like to term it , of which the above article is a good example .

I mean which country with such a rich tradition of political thought & philosophy particularly one which has a script more than 2000 yrs old which in turn has changed little in the said time period such that nearly everything written then can be read even today by commoners being intelligible.

This is precisely why when China under Mao decided to teach Nehru & India a lesson for his forward policy referred to the 2.5 times China's led a successful campaign against India against all odds given the topography & climate ( for those interested the 2.5 times China invaded India before the 1962 war refers to the Han Dynasty sucessfully defeating Kanishka of the Kushan dynasty in what's the Tarim Basin of today's Xinjiang , China's successful invasion of India following Harsha Vardhan's death & deposition of his successor by his usurper minister restoring Harsh Vardhan's son to the throne & the half referring to Timur i Lang's invasion of India with Timur being a Turco Mongol , hence Central Asian , hence due to his ethnicity considered by Mao to be more close to the Han than to the Indians. Wonder if Mao was aware Timur died planning an invasion of China which was in a fairly advanced stage. ) which was immediately understood by his colleagues having read & being well acquainted with their history , military strategies & tactics besides philosophy .

From there we go to a stage where right since Mao the CCP has fought & antagonised nearly every neighbour & instead of building bridges or even disguising their intent go all out to declare it on the borders & seas thru their actions backed up by articles like these . Then they feign hurt anger disappointment etc when their neighbours come together to form an alliance like the Quad .

And if you think this is the reaction from the major neighbors in the neighborhood , consider Philippines which has been paying respects to China mouthing platitudes but has gone ahead & deepened defence co operation with the Quad buying strategic weapons from India & inviting the US back to base in Philippines after their acrimonious exit nearly 3 decades ago .

Their intent was well known to everyone in their neighborhood , it's just they never expected the Chinese to initiate hostilities so soon or one after the other without tackling the previous ones comprehensively. Frankly I don't know which book of political strategy did they borrow this from , this idea of opening so many fronts simultaneously .

It's been my considered opinion that they got away during Mao's time due to sheer luck given his antagonising both the super powers of the day along with practically all their neighbours & Mao playing the original mad man open to nuclear confrontation which sort of unnerved both Krushchev , Brezhnev , etc among the Soviets & Truman , Eisenhower , Kennedy , Johnson etc among the US presidents just like the Kims of DPRK have been doing for the last 2 decades borrowing a leaf from Mao's playbook & Pakistan doing so in our neighborhood against us .

Since Mao , the CCP leadership , particularly in the last 2 decades but especially ever since Xi took power - he thinks be can get away like Mao did too .

Well all the best to him .

The right question to ask is definitely if India can defeat the J-20 , we perhaps can face down the F-22.

The 36 th Chamber of Shaolin always succeeds the 35th Chamber of Shaolin . It never precedes it.

Sun Tzu(tiapa)
 
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The reality always lies somewhere between two extremes. Neither we need to underestimate nor overestimate China. We need to have a balanced approach regarding facing China.

Trust me when I say this. Their last window of defeating India was in 2020, where they could have surprised us. Since 2020, our army/forces are actively pursuing capabilities to defeat not only China but China and Pakistan together.

Any attack on India will lead to decline of China as a super-power. Technology can only take you so far. In the end you'll have to make your hands dirty and spill your blood to ensure your objectives are met.

Regarding IAF vs F-22 and J-20. It's going to be difficult. But yes I think they can do it.
 
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F-22 has better kinematics, while J-20 has better sensors. For example, F-22 doesn't even have an IRST sensor. J-20, in comparison, has EOTS like integrated chin mounted IRST.

With proper integration of sensors and Networking, which are both the gist of modern air combat, IAF can counter any VLO threat.

All our future fighters with GaN based EW would defeat any radar guided missiles and penetrate the enemy deep inside. With digital RWR they will have full idea of what's tracking them. With AI enabled IRST that is sensor fused with GaN based AESA radar, even VLO is going to be detected. With the above even MKI will defeat both F-22 and J-20.

Defeating J-20 and its advance derivatives is the prime objective of MKI upgrade. That's why we're putting all high-tech features in the first batch itself.
 
...Continuing my previous post regarding killing Stealth Fighters. Well nothing is impossible. F-22 is the king of kinematics while Growler based on F/A-18E/F is a pig. But in a training exercise way back in 2009, E/A-18G killed an F-22 in a training exercise that too with AIM-120.

Ultimate proof with a kill mark:

Screenshot_20230303-201913_Chrome.jpg


Source of above image: https://theaviationgeekclub.com/ea-...m-against-f-22-and-f-35-stealth-fighters/amp/

Now, of course just one sample means nothing. But still if any plane has a good EW system and passive sensors, then Stealth fighters are not as invincible as they are often portrayed.

We need to order more Rafales and expedite MKI UPG. as soon as possible.
 
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So the Chinese domestic version of PL-15 has better motor/propellant grain cause the outer dimension wise it is the same as the export version. Maybe, the export version PL-15E also has less capable seeker than the Chinese domestic version as China would be wary of US intelligence active in Pakistan.

Our fighters need very advance EW along with fiber-optic towed decoy to defeat PL-15. As of now, only Rafale would be able to defeat it. Others not too sure.
 
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So the Chinese domestic version of PL-15 has better motor/propellant grain cause the outer dimension wise it is the same as the export version. Maybe, the export version PL-15E also has less capable seeker than the Chinese domestic version as China would be wary of US intelligence active in Pakistan.

Our fighters need very advance EW along with fiber-optic towed decoy to defeat PL-15. As of now, only Rafale would be able to defeat it. Others not too sure.

PL-15's range is nearly 300Km. The export version is naturally half to a third that. But it will still do about 200Km in reality.

The Chinese also have other missiles with AWACS-killer functions with a range of well over 500Km. Naturally, their ramjet versions could exceed the PL-15. They may also be developing scramjet AAMs.
 
@Bali78

You were of the belief that the Chinese are behind the Americans in civilian tech?

China leads in 37 of 44 technologies tracked in a year-long project by thinktank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The fields include electric batteries, hypersonics and advanced radio-frequency communications such as 5G and 6G.

The report, published on Thursday, said the US was the leader in just the remaining seven technologies such as vaccines, quantum computing and space launch systems.



The tracker:

India's rankings are pretty impressive. We have 4 fields where we ranked 2.
 
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Pls focus on the column with the heading aircraft engines & hypersonic capabilities in that list for China's position vis a vis the US in order to test for the credibility of the list.

I haven't even brought up SMC development & mfg. However this isn't to downplay the spectacular achievements of China in various fields made in such a short span of time. However one must place the entire issue in proper perspective.

@Bali78
 
Everything there relates to civilian tech, hypersonic tech like ISRO's RLV.

Only someone ignorant can be ignorant enough to apply hypersonics to military only. Oh, wait.
 
Yup aircraft engines is definitely civilian. After all the Chinese who've just started equipping their civilian airliners with high bypass engines have an almost 50% market share in it already , thereby bankrupting P&W, RR & GE in the bargain. Stay tuned in for more stories.
 
PL-15's range is nearly 300Km. The export version is naturally half to a third that. But it will still do about 200Km in reality.

The Chinese also have other missiles with AWACS-killer functions with a range of well over 500Km. Naturally, their ramjet versions could exceed the PL-15. They may also be developing scramjet AAMs.
Haven't seen a single Ramjet powered BVR from China till date. Apparently, they are finding it much hard to design/develop/produce Meteor like SFDR missile.

That's why we did a joint-venture with the Russians to develop our SFDR. Once matured, it will give us serious advantage over PLAAF.

That long range AWACS/Tanker killer missile is named PL-21 and it is not a ramjet but solid rocket motor missile(maybe having twin-pulse or more).
 
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Haven't seen a single Ramjet powered BVR from China till date. Apparently, they are finding it much hard to design/develop/produce Meteor like SFDR missile.

That's why we did a joint-venture with the Russians to develop our SFDR. Once matured, it will give us serious advantage over PLAAF.

That long range AWACS/Tanker killer missile is named PL-21 and it is not a ramjet but solid rocket motor missile(maybe having twin-pulse or more).
Check out the F-35 thread where Paddy has linked a video on futuristic US missile development. We were discussing why the US was lagging in this area some time ago.
 
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China is the birthplace of COVID-19 and yet their vaccine had the worst efficacy amongst all other known. While our Indian vaccine was rated much highly(I have taken Covaxin too).

Doesn't matter whether civilian or military, China's entire industry is based more on espionage than indigenous research like ours.

With a person like Modi at helm, we are soon going to leap-frog China in every which way. Just wait and watch.