India vs China - War Gaming Scenarios : Related News , Updates , Discussions & Analysis .

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@Rajput Lion

For some strange reason AM Chopra considers the Rafales good enough for the J-10 , J-11 & Su-27 but doesn't make any mention of the J-20 , J-16 , Su-MKK & the forthcoming J-31 .

While the latter two aren't that important as of now with the MKK being a slightly inferior derivative of our own MKI & the latter yet to come into service , it's rather intriguing he hasn't mentioned the other 2 FAs especially J-16 though overall he seems rather confident we'd meet the threat till you read between the lines . After all AM Chopra here heads a government sponsored TT .
 
Request all members to use this thread for any such scenarios & avoid the LAC thread.


@Rajput Lion

For some strange reason AM Chopra considers the Rafales good enough for the J-10 , J-11 & Su-27 but doesn't make any mention of the J-20 , J-16 , Su-MKK & the forthcoming J-31 .
Su-30MKK was procured by China as a strike fighter against US Carrier fleets. It's no match to our Su-30MKI or Rafale.
While the latter two aren't that important as of now with the MKK being a slightly inferior derivative of our own MKI & the latter yet to come into service , it's rather intriguing he hasn't mentioned the other 2 FAs especially J-16 though overall he seems rather confident we'd meet the threat till you read between the lines . After all AM Chopra here heads a government sponsored TT .
Whilst MKI and MKK both are Su-30 variants, both are totally different aircrafts. Our Su-30MKI is literally 2-seat version of Su-37 Terminator. In fact, it's even more advance than what Su-37 was supposed to be in terms of both Radar and TVC. It is an air-dominance fighter while Chinese MKK is just a striker with limited AtA capability.

Now, Rafale vs J-16 and J-20(since J-31 is still not operational). Hmm.. that's really interesting.

The following analysis is solely my own and others may disagree if they deem perfect.

I think while our Rafale-I outclasses J-11, Su-27, Su-30MKK and other Chinese fighters. China is looking to establish air supremacy with the help of J-10C/J-16/J-20 combo. These are three most dangerous PLAAF fighters till date because of their AESA radar + PL-15 combo. Now time for 1 vs 1 analysis(hypothetical since air warfare is much complicated than that).

Rafale-I vs J-10C:

While Rafale has better kinematics due to 2-engines, J-10C is also a Delta-Canard like Rafale. So, it's RCS is also quite less(DSI intake helps here) and thanks to AESA radar and PL-15 combo it packs a massive punch. But thanks to Meteor, even if both detect and shoot at each other at the same time, Meteor would reach J-10C quicker and neutralize it.

Winner: Rafale-I.


Rafale vs J-16:

While Rafale was developed to kill Su-27 Flanker, J-16 is just no ordinary Flanker. Till date, it's most advance derivative. China has replaced entire Metallic skin with CFC, thereby reducing Flanker's biggest weakness, i.e., RCS. Because of extensive use of carbon composites, it's also much lighter than normal Su-30. China claims sub 16 tonne empty weight vs 17.7 tonne of Su-30.

It's WS-10 engines produce more dry/wet power than AL-31F, which combined with its lighter weight, enhances its kinematic performance. It has most power AESA radar of any Chinese fighter. Its IRST is also QWIP based that is supposed to detect B-2 from 150 and F-22 from 110kms away. With all the above and with PL-15 along with AWACS killer PL-21(500kms range), this fighter poses one of the gravest threats to our fighters.

Now vs Rafale:

While China has reduced J-16's RCS, thanks to base Flanker design with podded engines, it's still somewhat more than J-10C. But to compensate that, it has most powerful AESA radar in Chinese service. So both Rafale and J-16 would detect each other at the same time using AESA radar or IRST.

But once again the advantage of Meteor comes in. PL-21 is not effective against Rafale being too big and heavy. And before PL-15 could reach Rafale, Meteor would swat J-16 away.

Winner: Rafale-I.
 
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What about J-20 vs Rafale ? If the J-16 is such a formidable opponent according to you how do you think the Rafale would survive an encounter with the J-20 ?


Do remember you're up against this piece of outstanding logic 👇:

Su-57 > J-20 > F-35

F-35 > Rafale

But ..Rafale > J-20 .

@Rajput Lion
 
Now the big fight, Rafale vs J-20:

While our ex-IAF chief BS Dhanoa sir claimed that Su-30MKI detected J-20 over Tibet, we know that Chinese are no fools to design a stealth fighter that can be tracked from 100s of kms away by any X-band FCR. So, may be it was flying with Luneburg Lens at that time.

So, even if Rafale has an AESA radar, there is no way it is detecting J-20 using it before it's too late. So, how does Rafale fight?

Well, our Rafale has next gen OSF that also features supposedly long range(maybe QWIP based) IRST. While SPECTRA will keep Rafale safe from J-20's radar, both Rafale and J-20 will detect each other using their IRST in dense jamming environment. But the detection would be much close. Now Mica-IR comes into the fray. PL-10 is also IIR all-aspect WVR missile. But MICA-IR is designed with OSF's range in mind. Rafale will shoot MICA-IR earlier and maybe score hit earlier too.

Winner: Can't say but Rafale-I has a very good chance.
 
Now the problems for us:

1. With 36 Rafale we're seriously outgunned against J-20 and J-16. We should immediately order 2/3 more Rafale squadrons ASAP.

2. The real battle won't be one on one. AWACS, Jammers, Drones and multiple fighter combos would work together. It's much tougher to beat J-20/J-16 combo than any one type.

Our primary Air Superiority fighter is completely outclassed against both J-20 and J-16 in terms of Radar/IRST/BVR.

Su-30UPG with cutting edge GaN based EW(upcoming next year) QWIP IRST and AESA radar(coming in next 2-3 years), Astra2/3(operational in next few years) is a must to take on China.
 
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May be we should also order Su-57M. AMCA will only become operational post 2035. The gap is too big and F-35 is not good enough for J-20. At best, just like Rafale it can draw level. But we need something to dominate J-20 and PLAAF like how MKI dominated PLAAF from 2002 to 2017.

Su-57M and its future derivatives are the only fighter that would be able to do it for us.
 
May be we should also order Su-57M. AMCA will only become operational post 2035.


The gap is too big and F-35 is not good enough for J-20.
On the contrary as of now I think it's only the US which has a clear edge over the Chinese J-20. The Russians have a joker in the pack with the Su-57. It can go either way going into the immediate future say by 2030 .

Stealth itself won't be VLO but varying degrees of LO which is why I suspect the Russians didn't try matching the Americans in this aspect as the US has two things going for it - a clear lead in stealth FAs & all aspects of it from design, understanding of stealth, it's advantages disadvantages etc & more to the point unlimited budgets for both CAPEX & OPEX. Don't forget the bigger the size of 5th Gen in your inventory which boasts of being VLO the more the maintenance.

They'd rather spend their limited resources in detecting stealth. Frankly I'd be very surprised if the US itself hasn't yet cracked the detection tracking & targeting part of enemy stealth FAs by now & if it's not they should be very close. Every other nation with an MIC worth it's salt would already be expending resources on this aspect.

At best, just like Rafale it can draw level. But we need something to dominate J-20 and PLAAF like how MKI dominated PLAAF from 2002 to 2017.

Let's hope the Rafale maintains parity with the J-20 going ahead. Today it may yet enjoy an edge however slim.

Su-57M and its future derivatives are the only fighter that would be able to do it for us.
Yup. Since the F-35 A is ruled out, we might as well focus on what's within reach plus we've an IOU worth 250 m USD from Russia which we have to encash.
 
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On the contrary as of now I think it's only the US which has a clear edge over the Chinese J-20. The Russians have a joker in the pack with the Su-57. It can go either way going into the immediate future say by 2030 .
At the moment, no air force has any edge over the Chinese. J-20 is evolving at a much faster pace than everyone expected.

J-20's stealth is not as good as that of F-22 or F-35, but in a dense environment it is good enough to get close. Chinese have developed J-16D, a dedicated EW aircraft like F-18G. So radar performance of both sides would degrade quite a lot.

That means both side would use their IRST. And as I said elsewhere, one area where Chinese have made a breakthrough is IRST. F-35's EOTS is more ground focussed and EODAS is more about self defense. According to the Chinese, their IRST can track F-22 from over 100kms. Another worrying point for USAF is that they still don't have PL-15 or PL-21 equivalent. In a shooting match, thanks to dual-pulse and AESA seeker, PL-15 may wreck havoc on US fighters. While PL-21 may take out E-3s and tankers, making USAF fighters run out of fuel and drop.

So USAF vs PLAAF, all bets are off. Who comes out on top. I am still not sure.
Stealth itself won't be VLO but varying degrees of LO which is why I suspect the Russians didn't try matching the Americans in this aspect as the US has two things going for it - a clear lead in stealth FAs & all aspects of it from design, understanding of stealth, it's advantages disadvantages etc & more to the point unlimited budgets for both CAPEX & OPEX. Don't forget the bigger the size of 5th Gen in your inventory which boasts of being VLO the more the maintenance.
Su-57 being not as stealthy is Western propaganda. Sukhoi has categorically said that they would almost match F-22's RCS(at least from front). That's perfect for an air superiority fighter.
They'd rather spend their limited resources in detecting stealth. Frankly I'd be very surprised if the US itself hasn't yet cracked the detection tracking & targeting part of enemy stealth FAs by now & if it's not they should be very close. Every other nation with an MIC worth it's salt would already be expending resources on this aspect.
F-15 fighter Pako said that there are ways to defeat F-22, but because they are classified, he didn't delve deep into the topic.
Let's hope the Rafale maintains parity with the J-20 going ahead. Today it may yet enjoy an edge however slim.
J-20 is very soon coming online with WS-15 engines with TVC. The new engine is supposed to make it supercruise between 1.5 to 1.8 Mach. We need Su-57M, period.
Yup. Since the F-35 A is ruled out, we might as well focus on what's within reach plus we've an IOU worth 250 m USD from Russia which we have to encash.
+1.
 
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At the moment, no air force has any edge over the Chinese. J-20 is evolving at a much faster pace than everyone expected.

There seems to be a lot of unanimity of the J-20 being ahead of the American FAs which is fine by me but in what aspects is it ahead is something no one is answering . It cannot be stealth , then what exactly is it ahead of the F-22 or F-35 in ? Kinematics ? Sensors ? Avionics ? Pls list your details & try backing them up with references from credible sources .

RST is of the opinion that given India's achieved so much in the field of aerospace bringing us almost on par with the west , over the past 10-12 yrs it automatically follows that China would definitely be ahead given the headstart they enjoy over us .

I'm fine with this observation too . Now let me share a little anecdote with you . Back in the day when Tatas were launching their Indica they got the car designed by an Italian design house & used an engine that they used for their mini truck in it .

Result while it was aesthetically appealing & roomy - a feature which stil continues with them , lack of adequate testing meant a fairly noisy car , prone to breakdowns which their dealers couldn't address as most of them were truck dealers turned car dealers who lacked the finesse to handle such customers leading to more pain besides a regular shortfall in spares supply. They lost their market share & goodwill rapidly & took more than 2 decades to come back to the top 3-4 in the economy car segment.

Along the way both the group underwent changes as did their perception of the market which in the initial days was headed by their trucking executives .

Now while this has no bearing on the Fighter Aircraft scenario playing out across the world , since we're discussing quality are you suggesting that 50-60 yrs of the US working on stealth platforms & the various subsystems which go into it which has seen a similar developmental cycle is now matched by the likes of China in terms of quality because of their deep pockets ?

Some 5-6 yrs ago the same Chinese did 2 things - they ordered 2 squadrons of the Su-35 which everyone speculated was to study & what else reverse engineer their engines & placed an order for 5 regiments of S-400 .

And we're expected to believe they've surpassed Russia & are now challenging the US in 5th Generation FA technology.


J-20's stealth is not as good as that of F-22 or F-35, but in a dense environment it is good enough to get close. Chinese have developed J-16D, a dedicated EW aircraft like F-18G. So radar performance of both sides would degrade quite a lot.

Given our advances in Radars , EW & other sensors & avionics we can duplicate this too . Wasn't there talk of building an EW only Tejas not more than a yr ago ? Wonder what happened to that ? We can do that for the MKI too .

That means both side would use their IRST. And as I said elsewhere, one area where Chinese have made a breakthrough is IRST. USAF still doesn't have PL-15 or PL-21 equivalent.

I don't think whatever notional advantage you perceive them as having is insurmountable . It's just that the US followed a different doctrine w.r.t IRST & TVC. They're making amends as far as the former goes not the latter for which they haven't yet revised their doctrine.

So USAF vs PLAAF, all bets are off. Who comes out on top. I am still not sure.

Undoubtedly the USAF but it's going to be one bruising encounter or as I put it somewhere else a Pyrrhic Victory .

Su-57 being not as stealthy is Western propaganda. Sukhoi has categorically said that they would almost match F-22. That's perfect for an air superiority fighter.

It's certainly not in the F-22 class as far as RCS goes . Whether it uses ECMs to "successfully camouflage" it's presence or minimise it a la Rafale is another matter .

F-15 fighter Pako said that there are ways to defeat F-22, but because they are classified, he didn't delve deep into the topic.

Tactics are & can always be developed to tackle such FAs which rival AFs do all the time .
J-20 is very soon coming online with WS-15 engines with TVC. The new engine is supposed to make it supercruise between 1.5 to 1.8 Mach.

I'd be more sceptical about these claims for reasons given above.

We need Su-57M, period.

Undoubtedly . Plus we don't have a choice . Let's add Rafales & MKIs with upgrades to it too.

 
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Ok, on your demand lets do J-20 vs F-35, shall we:)

J-20 is a bigger plane with twin-engines, which means it can fly higher and faster than F-35. Its bigger airframe also allows space for bigger sensors and internal fuel. Its canards improve its instantaneous and sustained turn rates over the F-35. Its IRST is also at par or even better than F-35.

It's primary BVR missile, i.e., PL-15 is better in range/speed/kinematics/seeker than AIM-120D3.

1 vs 1, J-20A looks better than F-35 on paper. Only advantage of F-35 may be that it's slightly more stealthy and that it's part of US war-fighting mechanism. But China already has over 150 and some say even 200 J-20s in service. China can throw lot more J-20 towards Taiwan/US than USAF can towards China over South China Sea.

NGAD is specifically developed to fight in the Pacific, that's why it will have insane range, endurance, stealth and supercruise to fight J-20 and Chinese 6th gen J-XX at their backyard.
 
Ok, on your demand lets do J-20 vs F-35, shall we:)

J-20 is a bigger plane with twin-engines, which means it can fly higher and faster than F-35. Its bigger airframe also allows space for bigger sensors and internal fuel. Its canards improve its instantaneous and sustained turn rates over the F-35. Its IRST is also at par or even better than F-35.

It's primary BVR missile, i.e., PL-15 is better in range/speed/kinematics/seeker than AIM-120D3.

1 vs 1, J-20A looks better than F-35 on paper. Plus, China already has over 150 and some say even 200 J-20s in service. China can throw lot more J-20 towards Taiwan/US than USAF can towards China over South China Sea.

NGAD is specifically developed to fight in the Pacific, that's why it will have insane range, endurance, stealth and supercruise to fight J-20 and Chinese 6th gen J-XX at their backyard.

Where are the citations FROM CREDIBLE SOURCES for the J-20 engines , avionics , sensors , weapons like PL-15 , etc ? You have these at the tip of your fingers as far as the F-35 goes don't you .

Let's leave the NGAD & 6th Gen Chinese FA out of the equation. Both won't arrive & if they do not in substantial numbers to make a difference to war by 2030 .
 
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Where are the citations FROM CREDIBLE SOURCES for the J-20 engines , avionics , sensors , weapons like PL-15 , etc ? You have these at the tip of your fingers as far as the F-35 goes don't you .

Let's leave the NGAD & 6th Gen Chinese FA out of the equation. Both won't arrive & if they do not in substantial numbers to make a difference to war by 2030 .
Your OP, i.e., article by AM Chopra mentions AESA seeker for PL-15 and dual-pulse. Both are lacking in AIM-120D, that's why USAF is developing AIM-260.

J-20 being bigger, twin-engined with its inherent advantages, canards and its advantages vs single engine F-35 doesn't need any expert quotation. It's obvious.

I have already conceded that F-35 is more stealthy than J-20. But in a radar denied/heavy clutttered/dense EM environment, how much that extra stealth is advantageous is anybody's guess, IMO.
 
Your OP article by AM Chopra mentions AESA seeker for PL-15 and dual-pulse. Both are lacking in AIM-120D, that's why USAF is developing AIM-260.

That's been my point all along that if the US lacks anything as of today I don't foresee a problem with them getting it ASAP. They have the technological & industrial base , human & material resources for it .

J-20 being bigger, twin-engines and its advantages, canards and its advantages vs single engine F-35 doesn't need any expert quotation. It's obvious.

The counterpart to the J-20 is the F-22 but fair enough if you choose to compare it to the F-35 . Hence all observations about Chinese assets are thru inference only. Which was precisely my point earlier. Besides this takes care only of the endurance part . To what extent does it actually outrange the Raptors & Lightnings is all in the realms of speculation.

Nothing on its sensors , avionics , radars , EA , ECM etc as we really don't know which can be both an asset or liability .

I have already conceded that F-35 is more stealthy than J-20. But in a radar denied/heavy clutttered/dense EM environment, how much that extra stealth is advantageous is anybody's guess, IMO.

Whatever incremental advantage one has however minimal in war time I'd still an advantage .
 
That's been my point all along that if the US lacks anything as of today I don't foresee a problem with them getting it ASAP. They have the technological & industrial base , human & material resources for it .
PL-15 has been operational for quite some years, still so far there is no US equivalent. That ain't quick, is it?
The counterpart to the J-20 is the F-22 but fair enough if you choose to compare it to the F-35 . Hence all observations about Chinese assets are thru inference only. Which was precisely my point earlier. Besides this takes care only of the endurance part . To what extent does it actually outrange the Raptors & Lightnings is all in the realms of speculation.
I compared J-20 with F-35 because both being latest and most numerous sealth fighters on their side. Plus, J-20 vs F-35 is also relevant in the Indian context as US is pushing India to buy their F-21 in MRCA 2.0 and then later buy F-35 and B1B.

F-22 vs J-20: F-22 needs an MLU as its sensors are too old. Whilst J-20s sensors are latest. Kinematics wise Raptor is still the king. I posted screenshot of its flight envelope in F-22 thread. No fighter still touches it.
Nothing on its sensors , avionics , radars , EA , ECM etc as we really don't know which can be both an asset or liability .
Exact specs will be classified. We can only speculate. Always remember, those who don't know talk but those who do remain silent.
Whatever incremental advantage one has however minimal in war time I'd still an advantage .
But then J-20 also has all the advantages of being a twin-engined plane over Lightning 2. That's why outcome between US vs China is so hard to guess, both being superpowers.
 
PL-15 has been operational for quite some years, still so far there is no US equivalent. That ain't quick, is it?

Fair enough . But they're developing stuff .

I compared J-20 with F-35 because both being latest and most numerous sealth fighters on their side. Plus, J-20 vs F-35 is also relevant in the Indian context as US is pushing India to buy their F-21 in MRCA 2.0 and then later buy F-35 and B1B.

We're being offered the F-35 only coz the F-22 aren't up for sale. Besides either of the 2 fifth gen ones if they come will be severely downgraded versions & will come with all strings attached. We both know that

F-22 vs J-20: F-22 needs an MLU as its sensors are too old. Whilst J-20s sensors are latest. Kinematics wise Raptor is still the king. I posted screenshot of its flight envelope in F-22 thread. No fighter still touches it.

Upgrades are delayed . Should be accomplished before this decade is out .

Exact specs will be classified. We can only speculate.

True of all FAs including F-35 but at least we have a good idea about them . We also have some idea of the Su-57 . We've absolutely nothing to go by as far as the J-20 goes .

Always remember, those who don't know talk but those who do remain silent.


But then J-20 also has all the advantages of being a twin-engined plane over Lightning 2. That's why outcome between US vs China is so hard to guess, both being superpowers.

That's coz they have home advantage & numbers . Which is why this is going to be one hell of a war .
 
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Fair enough . But they're developing stuff .
Question is, why are they waking up so late? Why they didn't start the development of AIM-260 earlier? With the kind of defense budget US has got, China operating a twin-pulse BVR missile with AESA seeker before US is inexplicably lousy planning on behalf of the US.

Like it or not, China has pulled lead over US in some critical area like BVR missiles for example.
We're being offered the F-35 only coz the F-22 aren't up for sale. Besides either of the 2 fifth gen ones if they come will be severely downgraded versions & will come with all strings attached. We both know that
IAF doesn't want a single-engine flagship plane, that fact is well documented. And IN has a doctrine which doesn't allow them to procure single-engine deck based fighters.

Don't think F-35 suits our war doctrine, no matter how much US is pushing for it.
Upgrades are delayed . Should be accomplished before this decade is out .
Actually, F-22 is constantly getting software upgrades. Very soon, they are putting a stealthy IRST pod in it.
True of all FAs including F-35 but at least we have a good idea about them . We also have some idea of the Su-57 . We've absolutely nothing to go by as far as the J-20 goes .
There are many Chinese insiders and you may like to spend some time in Sino Defence Forum to know more about J-20.
That's coz they have home advantage & numbers . Which is why this is going to be one hell of a war .
This war will be more high-tech than bloody, of what we're witnessing in Ukraine. That's why Air Power is going to be the decisive element.

While India vs China war will primarily be fought on land and mountains. Chinese chances of surprising US is much more than us. For the last two years and more, we've seriously prepared to defeat China. And the next war will prove it.

PS: Why don't you invite your friend @randomradio on this thread, because no one can opine on war scenario like him:)
 
Question is, why are they waking up so late? Why they didn't start the development of AIM-260 earlier? With the kind of defense budget US has got, China operating a twin-pulse BVR missile with AESA seeker before US is inexplicably lousy planning on behalf of the US.

For all their talk , I don't think they ever planned on taking on China . Truth be told I've my doubts even today whether they'd actually get down to defending Taiwan. What does this lead to ? It impacts your strategy & your defence planning.

It's all very well for defence papers emanating from the services & DoD as well as TTs which are a dime a dozen in the US to go parroting the line that China's the main threat & that we ought to prepare ourselves for it accordingly even declaring the same in interviews on TV channels in the media , hell , even in Congress but it's what you do on the ground that finally let's people who're depending on you & your foes get an inkling about how serious are you in walking the talk . What you've done is merely highlight what I'm summarised.

Like it or not, China has pulled lead over US in some critical area like BVR missiles for example.

Agreed. Having said that this lead isn't insurmountable is my larger point.

IAF doesn't want a single-engine flagship plane, that fact is well documented. And IN has a doctrine which doesn't allow them to procure single-engine deck based fighters.

Frankly you're preaching to the converted . I'm as a matter of principle opposed to all such offensive platforms offered to us by the US for obvious reasons . This extends to all versions of the Lightnings as well .

Don't think F-35 suits our war doctrine, no matter how much US is pushing for it.

It's a good piece to have but it's not what we'd get in the shape we want it to with the autonomy we want so it's pointless .

Actually, F-22 is constantly getting software upgrades. Very soon, they are putting a stealthy IRST pod in it.

If they're putting in a pod how stealthy will it be . They're also attaching external pylons to it . Including the F-35s. What does that tell you about how does the US look at stealth ?

There are many Chinese insiders and you may like to spend some time in Sino Defence Forum to know more about J-20.

Frankly they're more jingoistic than our guys & those to our west - P D F which I hold as the most jingoistic forum. Having said that I can't recall when was the last time I visited SDF. Will drop in there soon just to check it out .

This war will be more high-tech than bloody, of what we're witnessing in Ukraine. That's why Air Power is going to be the decisive element.

While India vs China war will primarily be fought on land and mountains. Chinese chances of surprising US is much more than us.

Depends entirely on how the US is preparing for the upcoming war assuming they want to fight it .

For the last two years and more, we've seriously prepared to defeat China. And the next war will prove it.

Amen to the thought.

PS: Why don't you invite your friend @randomradio on this thread, because no one can opine on war scenario like him:)
 
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J-20 is way more stealthy than Mig 1.44. In fact whole planform of J-20 is different from Mig 1.44. Chinese have stolen plenty of US stealth fighter data and the inspiration from US stealth jets in J-20 design is clear. J-20 is also a whole size bigger than Mig 1.44.

Screenshot_20230220-171340_Chrome.jpg


Source of image: Google/Quora

Look at the intakes from the front view, totally different. J-20 is Raptor like with side mounted intakes. Only area where Mig 1.44 and J-20 are similar is that both are Delta-Canards. The comparison ends there.