Status
Not open for further replies.

Gautam

Team StratFront
Feb 16, 2019
12,492
9,281
Tripura, NE, India
BE ( Mech) here with an embarrassingly low knowledge and interest in economics. It's not known as a dismal science for nothing. Off late, I realised that my low knowledge quotient on this subject was too low for my own good. Got around to buying a few books to improve my knowledge. That was a year ago. I guess time to start reading them now. Here's one of those purchases.


A Beginner's Guide to the World Economy: Eighty-one Basic Economic Concepts That Will Change the Way You See the World (Vintage) https://www.amazon.in/dp/0375725792/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_0W8GCb93XG70C
Thank you sir. Will definitely try to read some more on the subject including the one you suggested.
 

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Dec 4, 2017
14,520
10,495
Mumbai
Pakistan was never as leaning towards peace as prior to Pulwama. There is a civilian government (selected, but still) and an Army that is on the same page after ages. Both want to resolve the conflict issues so that the focus can be economic development, but it seems that the mindset of 'strategic assets' still exists somewhere deep down. Regardless, reduction of elements causing terror will definitely be seen inside Pakistan in the coming days.

Frankly, that boat sailed a long time ago. Kasuri during his book launch a few years ago in India claimed that Musharraf & Manmohan Singh agreed to a four point formula as a solution to the Kashmir issue in 2006 and then Musharraf lost office. 26/11 put paid to any such efforts fructifying. Besides, there was no confirmation of such a deal by the Indian side then or since. Post that book launch, Hussain Haqqani has gone on record last year in an interview to Shekhar Gupta of The Print quoting Kayani as asking Haqqani not to lay much stress on the Musharraf Manmohan pact dismissing it as something of a Musharraf only plan.

I don't think the Pakistani establishment or the armed forces have actually understood or estimated the anger among the ordinary Indian citizens of the toll the past 40 years of Pakistan sponsored terrorism has taken of the Indian state & it's people.

It's that anger which is driving the politicians to act and not a personal sense of grievance or outrage. Left to their own devices, our ordinary politician will do what he does best - mouth platitudes, make false promises, patronise his audience and make money.

Then there are certain politicians more specifically those belonging to a particular spectrum, who've tapped into this anger to fulfill other aims. It's also an article of faith with them - namely the destruction of the Pakistani state .

While Modi himself is too shrewd to fall into this trap, circumstances like Pulwama binds his hands. As we see more such Pakistan sponsored outrages, the space not to respond and to make such claims of extracting a heavy toll with such responses with credible evidence, shrinks. As does public tolerance for both the conditions in Kashmir and that of the state of Pakistan.

I personally think the time for talks has gone. Besides, what do we talk about? We aren't going to give up Kashmir & you aren't going to settle for anything less. Beginning now or for sometime since URI there's now a belief fast gaining traction within the establishment of re conquering PoJ&K ( so called Azad Kashmir & Northern Areas) . Two things come immediately to ones mind. First is the dire economic state of Pakistan. The second being the belief that we can't let China encircle us which is what the CPEC is seen as through the port in Gwadar and the base coming up at Ormara. I don't think either the US, their European allies, the Russians or even the Japanese and the South koreans will like this as this means energy security for the Chinese and freedom to prosecute it's claims in East Asia beginning with SCS followed by Taiwan and the rest.

The Afghanistan question looms in the background with the Americans poised to leave. The Taliban backed up as they are by the ISI, the PA and tanzeems like the LeT, JeM will do the heavy lifting as last time. This doesn't augur well for us in Kashmir. Then there's Iran and its concerns with similar tanzeems operating out of Pakistan on their soil apart from their concerns about the UAE - KSA - Pakistan nexus and the situation in Afghanistan.

We live in interesting times.
 

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Dec 4, 2017
14,520
10,495
Mumbai
Thank you sir. Will definitely try to read some more on the subject including the one you suggested.
Sir is how you address veterans like Falcon & vstol Jockey. They've earned it. Apart from @Guynextdoor who's older than your oldest uncle. Hence you use terms like uncle to address him. He doesn't deserve such honorifics but it's a reflection of your upbringing. I've no such accomplishments to my credit nor am I old enough to deserve honorifics.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gautam

Guynextdoor

Senior member
Dec 19, 2017
3,867
1,035
India
Stop Trolling in every Thread...
Sir is how you address veterans like Falcon & vstol Jockey. They've earned it. Apart from @Guynextdoor who's older than your oldest uncle. Hence you use terms like uncle to address him. He doesn't deserve such honorifics but it's a reflection of your upbringing. I've no such accomplishments to my credit nor am I old enough to deserve honorifics.
How is basanti bro? You taking her out pubbing this weekend? 😂🤣🤣😊😊
 

vstol Jockey

Professional
Dec 1, 2017
5,939
11,559
New Delhi
In case we do have a full blown war with Pakistan resulting in its dismemberment, I will want the Indian leadership to merge Sindh with India instead of making it an Independent nation. Hind is known Hind because of Sindh. We even have Sindh in our national anthem. If this happens, it will probably be the first ever instance wherein a Province will acquire a Nation and that too with third largest economy in terms of PPP and sixth largest in terms of USD. I am also of the opinion that creating an Independent Balochistan may not be good idea considering the threats from Iran and residual Punjabis of Pakistan. They should be given an opportunity to think and decide and if possible, made to agree to the original Accesion Agreement which was signed by Nawab of Kalat in 1947. This will ensure stability in This part of the world and also ensure a bright future for the Balochis.
I also want India to openly declare that it no more recognises the Durandline and the borders of Afghanistan should be redefined to an era before Durandline. This is the only way to ensure a very prosperous and stable South Asia and also create a very healthy cooperation between the member states of SAARC. India needs land borders with Central Asia. Dissolving Durandline and having a swap deal with Afghanistan for Wakhan corridor will give us that direct access to Central Asia and also completely cut out China from South Asia and Middle east which they are trying to do thru CPEC. Dissolving Durandline also will have an added benefit. The Punjabis of Pakistan will never be able to raise their head and will be forced to behave with all their neighbours in the best traditions of neighbours. This will ensure prosperity even for Pakistan Punjab. This will allow us to put to rest all disputes about river waters as India will need water down Indus for Sindh and will be required to maintain sufficient flow to feed the needs of Sindh.
 

vstol Jockey

Professional
Dec 1, 2017
5,939
11,559
New Delhi
I think we should give refugee status to Pakistani drones. The rate at which they are crossing over. Anyway what do you think they are doing, probing AD ?
Do you know why so many drones in that area? They are shit scared of our formations in that area. But what they have forgotten is that CSD has already been operationalised. We can go into offensive within six hours and cross the border and dismember them. The nuke bluff and the hoax of Nasr has been completely demolished by a indian called Ajit Doval. Let me see how Pakistan will now deal with an India which will strike Pakistan at will at a place of its choosing and at a time of its choosing? The threat is now on Pakistan. This is what we call taking battle to the heart of the enemy. For them Kashmir was their Jugular vein. we have created many such veins for them now.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Guynextdoor

Senior member
Dec 19, 2017
3,867
1,035
India
Instead of quoting individual replies, I'll address the main points raised, individually.


On the confirmation of employment of 4x SPICE-2000 SOWs: Some members seem to have the notion that SPICE-250 SOWs (250lbs SDB type weapon system with ~50lbs of explosives) might have been used instead of SPICE-2000 SOWs. I would like to point them to the evidence:
Surgical Strike in Pakistan a Botched Operation?

@Guynextdoor, I agree, given the redundant guidance aboard SPICE kits, and the standing-out nature of the target...my personal assessment is that the SPICE-2000s did not fail. I personally believe they were aimed precisely 100-200m off target, with the intentions of sending a message to Pakistan. That's why I think that in the press release given by the tri-services, the IAF representative avoided placing a number on the casualties and said that "the weapons hit the intended target, and they caused the intended damage. Whatever we intended to destroy, we have got the effect that we desired. Hamaray paas evidence hai, jo ham karna chahtay thay, ham target ko jitna destroy karna chahtay thay, jo effect ham ko chahiye tha wo effect ham ko mil gaya hai". I know this statement can be taken both ways, but it is still food for thought.

On the employment of 'soft' bombs: I'm not sure what exactly some members mean by that. Is there a 2000lbs anti-personnel munition that is operational with the IAF? If yes, can we all have some credible information on that? Is there a Russian/US/Israeli munition with similar characteristics?
P.S. Israel used SDBs or SPICE-250s in the Syrian Tyas T4 strike.

On the employment of penetrating munitions: It is evident from the ground and satellite imagery that the structure in question is non-hardened. Why would IAF employ penetrating (aka bunker-busting) munitions here? General purpose guided munitions with delayed fuses are enough for these type of structures. However it should be kept in mind that even 4x 2000lbs penetrating munitions amount up to 8000lbs of total ordinance (of which up to 2000lbs can be explosive). This much amount of explosive ordinance would have blew the said 30x30m structure to smithereens.

On the FAEs/Freshly dug ground/Mass grave theories: I'm not sure how members arrive at this conclusion, given the only thing that's discernible is the darker hue of the soil, which might as well have come from ill-drained rain water. Take a look at the image from GE, dated 28/09/2017. Maybe JeM was developing and testing FAEs, or digging mass graves on a regular basis.

On the hole in the tail of the Mi-17: It is absolutely possible that a cylindrical component inside the tail caused the punched out hole. It is equally possible that the helicopter fell on a cylindrical object. However, regarding the missile theory, members seem to have the notion that holes like that have to be punched IN from the side for a projectile hit to have taken place, which is true...but I'd like to point out that such a projectile would also cause a punched OUT hole on the other side, which I believe is the one visible here. After all, such projectiles don't just punch in from one side, and stop right there. However it is apparent that if it was a missile, it didn't detonate on contact.

On the Indian demonstration of will to strike back: Agreeably, India has demonstrated its will to cross the self-imposed red lines. For a long time India had been held back by the belief, imposed on it by Pakistan, that any sort of military aggression will result in inevitable nuclear exchange. The 26th February strike of IAF disproved that belief and the concept of cultivated irrationality of Pakistan.
However in the higher echelons of the Pakistani establishment, a well planned and thoroughly war-gamed escalation ladder exists, which comprises of proportional tit-for-tat responses going up the ladder until an all-out nuclear exchange. Behind the veil of cultivated irrationality, there are sane(-ish) minds who believe in the possibility of deescalation at every step of the ladder. Regardless of what the gullible public has been led to believe on both sides of the border, a nuclear exchange will never be instant, and will give enough time for the international community to intervene (unless someone decides to execute a pre-emptive CF strike). It will always begin with mobilization of nukes, missile launch exercises, live 'demonstrations' for the international community, CF strikes on friendly territory, CF strikes on enemy territory...and lastly ending with CV strikes on enemy territory. If someone has listened a lot to retd. Lt. Gen. Kidwai (ex-DG SPD), the 'designer' of Pakistan's entire nuclear posture, he/she will know what I'm referring to.


Seems like I struck some nerves with my rhetorical questions. Gentlemen, learn to debate with rational arguments. I'm not sure if its the frustration (understandably so) post-Pulwama, or the hatred of Pakistan, or the absolute faith in the Indian Armed Forces...that is causing educated Indian members to ignore the evidence in the face and come up with absurd explanations to justify their claims. Our heroes fail us some times, given that its not a fair or an ideal world. Mine have certainly failed me a long time ago. The correct thing to do is analyze everything objectively, and accept your own mistakes, even if they make you extremely uncomfortable. Only then you'd be able to rectify them and make yourselves better.
I don't support terrorism in any form against anyone. Personally, I believe that a few elements of the Pakistani establishment want to keep the Kashmir issue alive, and this is their way of doing so. It is a flawed strategy, and expecting to establish peace with India at the same time is plainly stupid. But there are a lot more elements who want to have peace in the region, to save the sinking ship. Musharraf took years to realize the inevitability of peace...to no avail in the end. Pakistan was never as leaning towards peace as prior to Pulwama. There is a civilian government (selected, but still) and an Army that is on the same page after ages. Both want to resolve the conflict issues so that the focus can be economic development, but it seems that the mindset of 'strategic assets' still exists somewhere deep down. Regardless, reduction of elements causing terror will definitely be seen inside Pakistan in the coming days.

The penetration warheads of this system used not only for hardened bunkers. A penetration of A soft roof top to place the warhead right in the midst of the people you’re targeting is highly desirable since it ensures a high kill ratio. Spice does not depend on incineraton or structural damage for killing targets as much as setting off a high pressure blast wave that erases all soft targets. This is best achieved when the warhead is pushed through the roof into the midst of the people you want to kill. Lighter warhead, more killed even if structural damage is lesser.

I also thought India had done only a symbolic attack until I heard the audio in this news report

Jaish-e-Mohammed admits Indian attack on Balakot, urges Pakistanis to join Kashmir jihad
 
  • Like
Reactions: Star Wars

Shaktimaan

Well-Known member
Dec 1, 2017
708
372
INDIA
Do you know why so many drones in that area? They are shit scared of our formations in that area. But what they have forgotten is that CSD has already been operationalised. We can go into offensive within six hours and cross the border and dismember them. The nuke bluff and the hoax of Nasr has been completely demolished by a Brahmin called Ajit Doval. Let me see how Pakistan will now deal with an India which will strike Pakistan at will at a place of its choosing and at a time of its choosing? The threat is now on Pakistan. This is what we call taking battle to the heart of the enemy. For them Kashmir was their Jugular vein. we have created many such veins for them now.
They should calm down... We are not going to attack them.. They should read falcon posts 😋
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hellfire

BlackOpsIndia

Team StratFront
Dec 1, 2017
3,056
3,777
127.0.0.1
Imran is asking help from every tom dik and harry, drones falling from sky. There is definitely more tension between both countries then we are aware.

Iranian President, PM Khan agree on closer cooperation in combatting terrorism - World - DAWN.COM

Screenshot_2019-03-10-00-24-17-0648338932.png
 

vstol Jockey

Professional
Dec 1, 2017
5,939
11,559
New Delhi
They should calm down... We are not going to attack them.. They should read falcon posts 😋
Yes they must read @Falcon post which says that Strike formations have not moved as we don't need to move them. Pivot corps with IBGs are enough to do the job. The area south of Multan can only be defended by either the Karachi corp or the support of Quetta Corp or the Army reserve South. They have moved Quatta corps already. We now want them to commit Army reserve South. If they do its fine and if they do not, Its even better for us. CSD gives no options to Pakistan. We only have all the options.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
11,671
8,918
India
Today's rate:
PKR : XE: Convert USD/PKR. United States Dollar to Pakistan Rupee
INR : XE: Convert USD/INR. United States Dollar to India Rupee
Nearly half the value of INR. If it is to become useless as you say, what exactly are the rates we are looking at ?

Pakistan is seeing significant inflationary pressures even with cheap oil and very low GDP growth while their population growth is booming. So their economy is slowly tanking and we should do our best to help it along.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
11,671
8,918
India
@Guynextdoor, I agree, given the redundant guidance aboard SPICE kits, and the standing-out nature of the target...my personal assessment is that the SPICE-2000s did not fail. I personally believe they were aimed precisely 100-200m off target, with the intentions of sending a message to Pakistan. That's why I think that in the press release given by the tri-services, the IAF representative avoided placing a number on the casualties and said that "the weapons hit the intended target, and they caused the intended damage. Whatever we intended to destroy, we have got the effect that we desired. Hamaray paas evidence hai, jo ham karna chahtay thay, ham target ko jitna destroy karna chahtay thay, jo effect ham ko chahiye tha wo effect ham ko mil gaya hai". I know this statement can be taken both ways, but it is still food for thought.

There should be no doubt about the nature of the intended targets. What ACM Dhanoa also said is the number of casualties can only be given by the govt. He wouldn't be referring to casualties if there weren't any.

Personally, I do not see any need for the Indian govt to do strikes that deliberately miss their targets. Otherwise we would never have called it "pre-emptive strikes".

IAF takes on detractors, submits proof of Balakot air strike
The IAF, in fact, submitted a dossier to the government yesterday as proof that 80% of the bombs deployed during the airstrike hit their intended targets. The dossier contained 12 pages of high-resolution satellite images and SAR imagery collected from an intelligence aircraft platform flying in Indian airspace, sources told India Today TV.

Apparently, it is not enough to hear Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa clearly state that " We [IAF] don't count human casualties, we count what targets we have hit or not". At the press conference on Monday he had added, "If we plan to hit the target, we hit the target, otherwise why would he [Pakistan PM] have responded, if we dropped bombs in the jungles why would he respond?"


On the employment of 'soft' bombs:
I'm not sure what exactly some members mean by that. Is there a 2000lbs anti-personnel munition that is operational with the IAF? If yes, can we all have some credible information on that? Is there a Russian/US/Israeli munition with similar characteristics?
P.S. Israel used SDBs or SPICE-250s in the Syrian Tyas T4 strike.

Likely thermobaric bombs.

On the employment of penetrating munitions:
It is evident from the ground and satellite imagery that the structure in question is non-hardened. Why would IAF employ penetrating (aka bunker-busting) munitions here? General purpose guided munitions with delayed fuses are enough for these type of structures. However it should be kept in mind that even 4x 2000lbs penetrating munitions amount up to 8000lbs of total ordinance (of which up to 2000lbs can be explosive). This much amount of explosive ordinance would have blew the said 30x30m structure to smithereens.

Thermobaric bombs require penetration if targets are inside a building. Any building.

Regardless, reduction of elements causing terror will definitely be seen inside Pakistan in the coming days.

Hopefully this happens. And I don't think India is going to accept anything less than 100% reduction. A future attack will simply see a repeat of the current situation.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.