India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

[Hellfire]

They apparently did go off, but they missed. Obviously the forces have not revealed the location of the target.

I doubt they missed.

I have my theory which seems quite plausible.

IAF hit the targets. Message sent and received.

PAF released the weapons at the points they wanted, message sent (to the larger audience in their home) and received.


Now both sides are grandstanding to the public while giving PM IK Niazi time to walk the talk. And the present situation will continue to ensure Pakistan does undertake the steps it has promised to. Otherwise, escalation is with India now.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

I doubt they missed.

I have my theory which seems quite plausible.

IAF hit the targets. Message sent and received.

PAF released the weapons at the points they wanted, message sent (to the larger audience in their home) and received.


Now both sides are grandstanding to the public while giving PM IK Niazi time to walk the talk. And the present situation will continue to ensure Pakistan does undertake the steps it has promised to. Otherwise, escalation is with India now.

Pakistan was adressing its own domestic
Constituency

We were adressing the Whole world
That look Nuclear Blackmail will not work
For ever

 

[randomradio]

I doubt they missed.

I have my theory which seems quite plausible.

IAF hit the targets. Message sent and received.

PAF released the weapons at the points they wanted, message sent (to the larger audience in their home) and received.

Hmm, so they hit a figurative target. This is what they have claimed anyway.

Now both sides are grandstanding to the public while giving PM IK Niazi time to walk the talk. And the present situation will continue to ensure Pakistan does undertake the steps it has promised to. Otherwise, escalation is with India now.

So it's all up to Pakistan whether India escalates or not? They can delay a lot now anyway.

I hope this continues on through elections as well. Other countries shouldn't perceive India to be weak during election time.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Pakistan must be wondering that if India
Can hit Balakot , what prevents USA from.
Bombing Peshawar and Quetta

Gen Vottel of US Centcom
Was saying that Pakistan is Now
Cooperating with USA in Afghanistan

That is because Pakistan is now facing a two Front situation

 

[Sathya]

Are you serious???? The cap was worn in solidarity of pulwama martyrs.....There was prior approval taken from ICC....Why does Pakistan have a problem with that

Because there will be pressure for their cricket team wear more than army cap..

 

[Parul]

Because there will be pressure for their cricket team wear more than army cap..

Suicide Vests! Kaboom

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

@vstol Jockey

Some firing incident happened in Sri Ganga Nagar border yesterday

This is in addition to the Drones being shot down

Doval Uncle planning something

 

[Gautam]

Yes its all from fundamental problem of misallocation of resources.

India case 1991, it was basically finally too much difference from what we wanted/needed to buy from the outside and what we could earn from providing them with stuff we could do. This was exacerbated by too much control on what could be produced and how inside India (by Indian govt).

It was overcome (to some degree, its still ongoing) by allowing higher diversity of the control+ownership of means of production (i.e not just govt and a few oligarchs...but more types of private owners - both local and foreign). This allowed greater access to efficiency (and its cousin productivity) given more producers had to compete to get the same supplier demand as before (and thus an economy hedges and responds a lot better and is also able to organically re-invest into itself rather than having everything going through same set of people in govt)

When you have more efficiency like that, your economies of scale are realised without too much extra cost (and requisite insulation to protect it from competitors)....thus you do not create a "diabetic" problem in the long run of grand inefficient scale (like say with license raj model)...and both your internal supply/demand (measured by things like inflation and real GDP per capita) and external supply/demand (measured by balance of payments) is lot more sustainable and healthy and less susceptible to collapse from large enough shocks.

Pakistan case is one where the economy is still run mainly by a few oligarchs (and one happens to be the military too)...and as the world competes more and more in globalisation, they get left behind more and more too (because simply they produce less and less of what the world wants....yet expect to keep up the same or more consumption of what they buy from the world). This gets exacerbated by some degree by rest of the world growing better, because rest of the world can offer more for same set of resources that Pakistan needs to keep functioning at some level (stuff like energy and crucial imports)...i.e a further cost increase imposed on your current account (and forex etc). Less Pakistan can offer to counter for this in physical goods and services of relevance (and in demand from everyone else)....the more they have to go for loans (backed on their own economy) instead of FDI (backed at investors risk). This is why for example long term there is more and more ill-effect on Pakistan now that Asian tigers + China have grown immensely, India + Indonesia is growing fast and now even Bangladesh is putting foot on the pedal (and quietly but surely building up its niche and supplier + consumer base + integration)....so what usually worked for Pakistan status quo in the cold war, worked less for it in the 90s and 2000s and even less so now (as it gets "crowded" out more and more by others offering the same + better + more and willing to compete more for the basic resources on world market).

The answer for Pakistan lies (like everyone else) in loosening of the oligarch control to introduce reform (to have more competition which will create wealth buffer to invest into institutions that can further create competition and transparency)....but this will be the erosion of those oligarchs power...and given one involves the military....it would rather keep status quo and perpetuate whats going on. The oligarchs were and are not fundamentally held accountable to the Pakistani people.

This is the major difference with the situation in India in 1991 where the govt would face political suicide if it allowed the looming BoP crisis to progress to the next level (i.e loan defaults etc).....i.e it has some level of accountability/performance (as bad as it messed it up for 40 odd years or so) to its people/voters. India basically managed to invest in itself (even during the stagnant cold war years) enough institutional capability to do this and pull itself out of the trouble it got itself into....and of course India's bulk helps to some degree too. Pakistan was not so fortunate and the longer it goes, the larger the hole it digs itself into....because the serious reform would need serious change in how it goes about running its basic economic structure (and who owns/controls all of that).

I have always believed that economic problems are always laced with political undertones, just never realized how much. Thank you sir for the excellent write up. I am so sorry putting you through the trouble of typing all that, regrettably I will bug you a bit more. The true oligarchs in Pakistan is the military as you rightfully wrote. Most of their produce is commodity goods like cement. So, technically speaking ramping up cement production in India should cut our import(however little) from them and also make us more competitive in global markets, further hurting their exports prospects. Pakistan is largely speaking an agricultural economy, their economy is not as diversified as ours. Their agriculture much like ours depends heavily on the elements. A lack of water for example can have devastating impact on their agriculture, reason for all the Indus Water Treaty rumblings. It seems to me that there is a lot we can do to hurt them economically, yet very little action is seen on the ground. Why is that ? Are their any legal barriers preventing us from taking punitive economic action ? Or is it something else ?

 

[Gautam]

Does writing the citation of an Ashok Chakra (Pothumous) count?

Why of course. Thanks.

 

[Enquencher]

prof

Pakistan must be wondering that if India
Can hit Balakot , what prevents USA from.
Bombing Peshawar and Quetta

Gen Vottel of US Centcom
Was saying that Pakistan is Now
Cooperating with USA in Afghanistan

That is because Pakistan is now facing a two Front situation

Yes a two front situation..third front the iranians provved to be pussies..
Iranians jus look as barking ones they dnt bite

 

[Golden_Rule]

Economies tank by simply one thing happening enough: Continued production of goods and services no one wants to buy....and lack of goods and services people actually want to buy.

Basically when govt gets involved in creating massive supply/demand mismatch....you get things like runaway inflation and massive currency depreciation etc.....but the underlying symptoms are always the same.

How do you explain the "till now insulated" economy of China with over 600 million apartments lying unoccupied in Ghost Cities, all of this happening with massive funding from Central Banks of China. Still the CNY is appreciating.

 

[Shajida Khan]

Sir.

The concerned unit undertook a retaliation. The usual stuff. I like the Ninja Turtle .... good one.

Before "Surgical Strike" become a PR thing and a bollywood movie, from what I know, this was a permanent fixture of military engagement from both the sides on LoC.

That said air strike is a new development.

 

[Shajida Khan]

How do you explain the "till now insulated" economy of China with over 600 million apartments lying unoccupied in Ghost Cities, all of this happening with massive funding from Central Banks of China. Still the CNY is appreciating.

Do you believe that economic markers are "rational" and "immediate"?
Hint : Watch that movie called "The Big Short". Though it is a movie, it shows for how long an irrational position can self sustain without blowing up. People like to believe that everything is fine and dandy till it blows in their face.

I have been living in Vancouver for sometimes now. I spent a long time in Seattle. The cities are twin sisters separated at birth. Seattle has a very vibrant tech economy and house-hold names having HQs and offices. Vancouver? Almost None! That said there are too many multi-million dollar homes and apartments in Vancouver but Seattle though expensive, still has some half way decent apartments that are not over 1 million dollar (Canada or US).

Employment opportunities in Vancouver is nothing compared to Seattle. So where does money come from? It seems banks are pushing cheap loans and chinese are 'investing' to make a windfall. It has been ongoing for 20 years with no correction. There are entire ghost colonies in western parts of the city.

A bubble is only visible after it corrects itself, till then everyone says "Oh! there is a demand", "Oh! but we are different and living in different times" and thousand excuses.

 

[RATHORE]

Before "Surgical Strike" become a PR thing and a bollywood movie, from what I know, this was a permanent fixture of military engagement from both the sides on LoC.

That said air strike is a new development.

@Falcon is obviously the authority on this compared to me; and he'll correct me if I'm wrong. But the permanent fixture was quick, smaller tactical reprisal raids on "guilty" posts to restore a unit's honor after it had been hit/lost a couple guys or heads. The planning was usually at the "lowest"/on ground level, and there was almost never any recognition or ownership higher up (especially by politicians).

This was a set of multiple, coordinated raids on terror launchpads (including taking out anyone else there/supporting them) as an open response to a terror attack, with political recognition and ownership; and a crucial exercise to begin removing the nuclear umbrella from behind which Pakistan kept supporting terrorism and threatening us - a job that was furthered by the Air Strikes on Balakot.

The death toll of the Surgical Strikes was also apparently significantly bigger than what we claimed. Earlier raids that the Opposition tried to erroneously label as Surgical Strikes usually had small death tolls (i.e. 6 guys for 3 guys - you get the idea).

 

[Shajida Khan]

prof
Yes a two front situation..third front the iranians provved to be pussies..
Iranians jus look as barking ones they dnt bite

They are not as much hurt by Pakistan's actions as we are.

 

[Shajida Khan]

I doubt they missed.

I have my theory which seems quite plausible.

IAF hit the targets. Message sent and received.

PAF released the weapons at the points they wanted, message sent (to the larger audience in their home) and received.


Now both sides are grandstanding to the public while giving PM IK Niazi time to walk the talk. And the present situation will continue to ensure Pakistan does undertake the steps it has promised to. Otherwise, escalation is with India now.

I wonder if our base air-defences are worth even a dime... How much coverage do we get with those? Shouldn't we have taken the aircrafts out? And why didn't we close the airspace just after the strike? At least in 300-400 KM radius of Kashmir?


The only thing I could gather is that it would have strangled Pakistan's opportunity for a counter attack, forcing them to take offensive at a place outside of LoC, climbing the escalation ladder. I believe that was something our esteemed civilian leadership totally against to. They didn;t want escalation after their strike. A weird and irrational position surely.

Sushree Sushma Swaraj (SS) was still yelping about "Peace" and "Diplomacy" and "We dont want escalation" in China... of all places.

 

[Shajida Khan]

Doval Uncle planning something

None... Doval uncle is busy supporting BJP's election effort.

 

[vstol Jockey]

First time after 1971, We have exchanged fire with Pak Army on Rajasthan border last night.

 

[RATHORE]

First time after 1971, We have exchanged fire with Pak Army on Rajasthan border last night.

Sri Ganganagar, I heard.

 

[sid4587]

Some questions for the Indian community, from my personal perspective, on the whole episode:

1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? If yes, does it raise doubts on the effectiveness of SPICE? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the DSMAC feed of the SPICE seekers?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?

We did not miss the target instead to make sure we first released the first set of bombs and when dust cloud got settled second set of bombs were released.