India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

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Gautam said:
Thank you sir. Will definitely try to read some more on the subject including the one you suggested.
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Economies tank by simply one thing happening enough: Continued production of goods and services no one wants to buy....and lack of goods and services people actually want to buy.

Basically when govt gets involved in creating massive supply/demand mismatch....you get things like runaway inflation and massive currency depreciation etc.....but the underlying symptoms are always the same.
 
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Golden_Rule said:
Yesterday HM Rajnath said that we have done 3 strikes, but he wont disclose the 3rd one. Anyone has any idea about this 3rd strike that he is talking about?

@Falcon @Nilgiri
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HM himself said he won't give details about the 3rd one....but it occured. If I had to assume, there was one during the BAT flareups, after pathankot or maybe the more recent sniper escalation (along lines of the surgical strike, but just not disclosed officially)....but no idea.

"3 Strikes, Won't Talk About Third": Rajnath Singh At Karnataka Rally

Also it seems I didn't get your tag (maybe you added it afterwards in post edit). Falcon can maybe confirm that didn't work and maybe mods/admins can fix that issue.
 
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Nilgiri said:
Economies tank by simply one thing happening enough: Continued production of goods and services no one wants to buy....and lack of goods and services people actually want to buy.

Basically when govt gets involved in creating massive supply/demand mismatch....you get things like runaway inflation and massive currency depreciation etc.....but the underlying symptoms are always the same.
Click to expand...

Interesting sir, so the 1991 balance of payment crisis in India was also likely a result of over govt. intervention ? If yes then, how did we overcome it ? Can Pakistan take similar steps to overcome the current economic mess they are in ? Also, are there more examples of such tanking around the world that I can read up on ?
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Frankly, that boat sailed a long time ago. Kasuri during his book launch a few years ago in India claimed that Musharraf & Manmohan Singh agreed to a four point formula as a solution to the Kashmir issue in 2006 and then Musharraf lost office. 26/11 put paid to any such efforts fructifying. Besides, there was no confirmation of such a deal by the Indian side then or since. Post that book launch, Hussain Haqqani has gone on record last year in an interview to Shekhar Gupta of The Print quoting Kayani as asking Haqqani not to lay much stress on the Musharraf Manmohan pact dismissing it as something of a Musharraf only plan.

I don't think the Pakistani establishment or the armed forces have actually understood or estimated the anger among the ordinary Indian citizens of the toll the past 40 years of Pakistan sponsored terrorism has taken of the Indian state & it's people.

It's that anger which is driving the politicians to act and not a personal sense of grievance or outrage. Left to their own devices, our ordinary politician will do what he does best - mouth platitudes, make false promises, patronise his audience and make money.

Then there are certain politicians more specifically those belonging to a particular spectrum, who've tapped into this anger to fulfill other aims. It's also an article of faith with them - namely the destruction of the Pakistani state .

While Modi himself is too shrewd to fall into this trap, circumstances like Pulwama binds his hands. As we see more such Pakistan sponsored outrages, the space not to respond and to make such claims of extracting a heavy toll with such responses with credible evidence, shrinks. As does public tolerance for both the conditions in Kashmir and that of the state of Pakistan.

I personally think the time for talks has gone. Besides, what do we talk about? We aren't going to give up Kashmir & you aren't going to settle for anything less. Beginning now or for sometime since URI there's now a belief fast gaining traction within the establishment of re conquering PoJ&K ( so called Azad Kashmir & Northern Areas) . Two things come immediately to ones mind. First is the dire economic state of Pakistan. The second being the belief that we can't let China encircle us which is what the CPEC is seen as through the port in Gwadar and the base coming up at Ormara. I don't think either the US, their European allies, the Russians or even the Japanese and the South koreans will like this as this means energy security for the Chinese and freedom to prosecute it's claims in East Asia beginning with SCS followed by Taiwan and the rest.

The Afghanistan question looms in the background with the Americans poised to leave. The Taliban backed up as they are by the ISI, the PA and tanzeems like the LeT, JeM will do the heavy lifting as last time. This doesn't augur well for us in Kashmir. Then there's Iran and its concerns with similar tanzeems operating out of Pakistan on their soil apart from their concerns about the UAE - KSA - Pakistan nexus and the situation in Afghanistan.

We live in interesting times.
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It does seem like that boat has sailed. No matter how hard Imran Khan (or a future government) tries now to prove that he's serious about settling these issues for the greater good, the present and upcoming generation in charge of things in India will probably never believe the Pakistani government.

However I still believe that India has more to gain from a strong Pakistan, than a weak one. Indians massively underestimate how hostile their western border will get if Pakistan goes down. If the 'supervised' organizations make you feel like this, you don't wanna witness the times when all of them will be unleashed on India, potentially armed with WMDs. No matter how angry or frustrated the GoI and Indian public is, for them Pakistan is the literal manifestation of that small release switch on an explosive. If you let it go, the results will make Pulwama or Mumbai look like a walk in a park.

Interesting times ahead indeed.

Guynextdoor said:
The penetration warheads of this system used not only for hardened bunkers. A penetration of A soft roof top to place the warhead right in the midst of the people you’re targeting is highly desirable since it ensures a high kill ratio. Spice does not depend on incineraton or structural damage for killing targets as much as setting off a high pressure blast wave that erases all soft targets. This is best achieved when the warhead is pushed through the roof into the midst of the people you want to kill. Lighter warhead, more killed even if structural damage is lesser.

I also thought India had done only a symbolic attack until I heard the audio in this news report

Jaish-e-Mohammed admits Indian attack on Balakot, urges Pakistanis to join Kashmir jihad
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I asked a very clear question. Is there a 2000lbs anti-personnel munition that is operational with the IAF? If yes, can we all have some credible information on that? Is there a Russian/US/Israeli munition with similar characteristics i.e. 2000lbs of total ordinance with the capability to kill inhabitants of a soft structure without bringing it down?
Don't spin theories without backing them up with rational reasoning/evidence. I understand that Indian media is quite the aerial munitions expert these days, but this is not expected of long term members of defense forums.

The very beginning of that audio denies any fatalities. Of course, they will still consider bombs going off 100-200m away an attempt of a strike on them. This doesn't proves anything.


randomradio said:
There should be no doubt about the nature of the intended targets. What ACM Dhanoa also said is the number of casualties can only be given by the govt. He wouldn't be referring to casualties if there weren't any.

Personally, I do not see any need for the Indian govt to do strikes that deliberately miss their targets. Otherwise we would never have called it "pre-emptive strikes".

IAF takes on detractors, submits proof of Balakot air strike
The IAF, in fact, submitted a dossier to the government yesterday as proof that 80% of the bombs deployed during the airstrike hit their intended targets. The dossier contained 12 pages of high-resolution satellite images and SAR imagery collected from an intelligence aircraft platform flying in Indian airspace, sources told India Today TV.

Apparently, it is not enough to hear Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa clearly state that " We [IAF] don't count human casualties, we count what targets we have hit or not". At the press conference on Monday he had added, "If we plan to hit the target, we hit the target, otherwise why would he [Pakistan PM] have responded, if we dropped bombs in the jungles why would h
e respond?"
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You are entitled to your opinion regarding the intended targets.

Regarding ACM BS Dhanoa's statement, I just ask a simple question: Wouldn't India retaliate if its worst adversary bombed a hill side on its soil with 8000lbs of ordinance?
An interesting conversation from almost 8 years ago. The guy, Najam Sethi, is quite well informed and was hated by almost everyone because of the information he used to leak in his show, about everyone. Watch from 27:56 (the context is the aftermath of OBL raid, keep in mind that some of the information at that time was coming straight through his sources, and the US had not elaborated how exactly things went on the ground):



randomradio said:
Likely thermobaric bombs.

Thermobaric bombs require penetration if targets are inside a building. Any building.
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Do you understand the functional principle of a thermobaric weapon? Or even what the word means? If yes, can you comprehend what 4x 2000lbs of FAE munitions would do to a 30x30m closed, non-hardened structure? Even if FAEs themselves comprised half the total weight of the munitions?

Again, don't spin theories without backing them up with rational reasoning/evidence. I understand that people on Indian media are quite the aerial munitions experts these days, but this is not expected of long term members of defense forums.
 
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The Deterrent said:
You are entitled to your opinion regarding the intended targets.

Regarding ACM BS Dhanoa's statement, I just ask a simple question: Would India not retaliate if its worst adversary bombed a barren field on its soil with 8000lbs of ordinance?
An interesting conversation from almost 8 years ago. The guy, Najam Sethi, is quite well informed and was hated by almost everyone because of the information he used to leak in his show, about everyone. Watch from 27:56 (the context is the aftermath of OBL raid):

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This is going into the claim and counterclaim realm again.

ACM Dhanoa said the targets were hit. AVM Kapoor said revealing casualties now will be "premature". Pakistan claimed no targets were hit.

Pak claimed the PAF strike package's targets were empty fields. India claimed the target was the Brigade HQ, and the PAF jets missed their targets.

I'm gonna believe what my forces say, you will believe yours. We will just go around in circles from here on.

Also, no, one wouldn't target a Brigade HQ in exchange for some trees. But of course, you will say the Brigade HQ wasn't the target. Circle.

Do you understand the functional principle of a thermobaric weapon? Or even what the word means? If yes, can you comprehend what 4x 2000lbs of FAE munitions would do to a 30x30m closed, non-hardened structure? Even if FAEs themselves comprised half the total weight of the munitions?

Again, don't spin theories without backing them up with rational reasoning/evidence. I understand that people on Indian media are quite the aerial munitions experts these days, but this is not expected of long term members of defense forums.
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter what it is, it's all conjecture right now after all.

Btw, thermobaric bombs come in all sizes, from tank and artillery shells to MOAB, FOAB and everything in between.

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1104088066312925184
 
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The Deterrent said:
It does seem like that boat has sailed. No matter how hard Imran Khan (or a future government) tries now to prove that he's serious about settling these issues for the greater good, the present and upcoming generation in charge of things in India will probably never believe the Pakistani government.

However I still believe that India has more to gain from a strong Pakistan, than a weak one. Indians massively underestimate how hostile their western border will get if Pakistan goes down. If the 'supervised' organizations make you feel like this, you don't wanna witness the times when all of them will be unleashed on India, potentially armed with WMDs. No matter how angry or frustrated the GoI and Indian public is, for them Pakistan is the literal manifestation of that small release switch on an explosive. If you let it go, the results will make Pulwama or Mumbai look like a walk in a park.

Interesting times ahead indeed.


I asked a very clear question. Is there a 2000lbs anti-personnel munition that is operational with the IAF? If yes, can we all have some credible information on that? Is there a Russian/US/Israeli munition with similar characteristics i.e. 2000lbs of total ordinance with the capability to kill inhabitants of a soft structure without bringing it down?
Don't spin theories without backing them up with rational reasoning/evidence. I understand that Indian media is quite the aerial munitions expert these days, but this is not expected of long term members of defense forums.

The very beginning of that audio denies any fatalities. Of course, they will still consider bombs going off 100-200m away an attempt of a strike on them. This doesn't proves anything.



You are entitled to your opinion regarding the intended targets.

Regarding ACM BS Dhanoa's statement, I just ask a simple question: Wouldn't India retaliate if its worst adversary bombed a hill side on its soil with 8000lbs of ordinance?
An interesting conversation from almost 8 years ago. The guy, Najam Sethi, is quite well informed and was hated by almost everyone because of the information he used to leak in his show, about everyone. Watch from 27:56 (the context is the aftermath of OBL raid, keep in mind that some of the information at that time was coming straight through his sources, and the US had not elaborated how exactly things went on the ground):




Do you understand the functional principle of a thermobaric weapon? Or even what the word means? If yes, can you comprehend what 4x 2000lbs of FAE munitions would do to a 30x30m closed, non-hardened structure? Even if FAEs themselves comprised half the total weight of the munitions?

Again, don't spin theories without backing them up with rational reasoning/evidence. I understand that people on Indian media are quite the aerial munitions experts these days, but this is not expected of long term members of defense forums.
Click to expand...

Why is the 2000 pound number so that important? Once you have a penetration warhead you can get the job at a fraction of that size. Besides I don’t see why an armed force with a 50 billlion usd budget won’t have 2000 pound munition in service. The question you have asked is strange, the question should be did they use it or not.
 
randomradio said:
This is going into the claim and counterclaim realm again.

ACM Dhanoa said the targets were hit. AVM Kapoor said revealing casualties now will be "premature". Pakistan claimed no targets were hit.

Pak claimed the PAF strike package's targets were empty fields. India claimed the target was the Brigade HQ, and the PAF jets missed their targets.

I'm gonna believe what my forces say, you will believe yours. We will just go around in circles from here on.

Also, no, one wouldn't target a Brigade HQ in exchange for some trees. But of course, you will say the Brigade HQ wasn't the target. Circle.



It doesn't matter what it is, it's all conjecture right now after all.

Btw, thermobaric bombs come in all sizes, from tank and artillery shells to MOAB, FOAB and everything in between.

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1104088066312925184
Click to expand...

If the paf weapons didn’t go off then it’s likely because they had their fuses removed.
 
Tea addict said:
Same here but I am reading defence forums from past 5-6 years so I came to know about many non military ways of engagement too.
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You and Gautam or anyone else intrested in Indian economy should watch Mrunal videos on economy on YouTube. Its more for UPSC CSE prepration but if you just watch them he explained everything very lucidly. Members here are recommending core economy books I don't know how much you will read them but his videos are interesting and you won't have to burden yourself with more books ;)
 
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BlackOpsIndia said:
You and Gautam or anyone else intrested in Indian economy should watch Mrunal videos on economy on YouTube. Its more for UPSC CSE prepration but if you just watch them he explained everything very lucidly. Members here are recommending core economy books I don't know how much you will read them but his videos are interesting and you won't have to burden yourself with more books ;)
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Thanks, I did apply for UPSC/NDA. Passed the written exam. Went for interview in 4 AFSB,Varanasi Wanted to join the Airforce/Navy but they wouldn't take me:cry:. Ended up as "Not Recommended". Sadly, I came to know of the NDA much too late and my first time was also my last time. Not a lot of awareness about these things in my part of the country. I told people I was going for NDA, they thought I was joining politics:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:. Screwed up my JEE MAINS while preparing for UPSC/NDA. I guess I wasn't good enough. No worries, at least now I know what it takes to be a soldier. So my respect for them has only grown.
 
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Gautam said:
Interesting sir, so the 1991 balance of payment crisis in India was also likely a result of over govt. intervention ? If yes then, how did we overcome it ? Can Pakistan take similar steps to overcome the current economic mess they are in ? Also, are there more examples of such tanking around the world that I can read up on ?
Click to expand...

Yes its all from fundamental problem of misallocation of resources.

India case 1991, it was basically finally too much difference from what we wanted/needed to buy from the outside and what we could earn from providing them with stuff we could do. This was exacerbated by too much control on what could be produced and how inside India (by Indian govt).

It was overcome (to some degree, its still ongoing) by allowing higher diversity of the control+ownership of means of production (i.e not just govt and a few oligarchs...but more types of private owners - both local and foreign). This allowed greater access to efficiency (and its cousin productivity) given more producers had to compete to get the same supplier demand as before (and thus an economy hedges and responds a lot better and is also able to organically re-invest into itself rather than having everything going through same set of people in govt)

When you have more efficiency like that, your economies of scale are realised without too much extra cost (and requisite insulation to protect it from competitors)....thus you do not create a "diabetic" problem in the long run of grand inefficient scale (like say with license raj model)...and both your internal supply/demand (measured by things like inflation and real GDP per capita) and external supply/demand (measured by balance of payments) is lot more sustainable and healthy and less susceptible to collapse from large enough shocks.

Pakistan case is one where the economy is still run mainly by a few oligarchs (and one happens to be the military too)...and as the world competes more and more in globalisation, they get left behind more and more too (because simply they produce less and less of what the world wants....yet expect to keep up the same or more consumption of what they buy from the world). This gets exacerbated by some degree by rest of the world growing better, because rest of the world can offer more for same set of resources that Pakistan needs to keep functioning at some level (stuff like energy and crucial imports)...i.e a further cost increase imposed on your current account (and forex etc). Less Pakistan can offer to counter for this in physical goods and services of relevance (and in demand from everyone else)....the more they have to go for loans (backed on their own economy) instead of FDI (backed at investors risk). This is why for example long term there is more and more ill-effect on Pakistan now that Asian tigers + China have grown immensely, India + Indonesia is growing fast and now even Bangladesh is putting foot on the pedal (and quietly but surely building up its niche and supplier + consumer base + integration)....so what usually worked for Pakistan status quo in the cold war, worked less for it in the 90s and 2000s and even less so now (as it gets "crowded" out more and more by others offering the same + better + more and willing to compete more for the basic resources on world market).

The answer for Pakistan lies (like everyone else) in loosening of the oligarch control to introduce reform (to have more competition which will create wealth buffer to invest into institutions that can further create competition and transparency)....but this will be the erosion of those oligarchs power...and given one involves the military....it would rather keep status quo and perpetuate whats going on. The oligarchs were and are not fundamentally held accountable to the Pakistani people.

This is the major difference with the situation in India in 1991 where the govt would face political suicide if it allowed the looming BoP crisis to progress to the next level (i.e loan defaults etc).....i.e it has some level of accountability/performance (as bad as it messed it up for 40 odd years or so) to its people/voters. India basically managed to invest in itself (even during the stagnant cold war years) enough institutional capability to do this and pull itself out of the trouble it got itself into....and of course India's bulk helps to some degree too. Pakistan was not so fortunate and the longer it goes, the larger the hole it digs itself into....because the serious reform would need serious change in how it goes about running its basic economic structure (and who owns/controls all of that).
 
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Angel Eyes said:
Sir, i didn't even asked you to answer in first place, you shouldn't have bothered to reply, as a serving millatry official, your time is too precious to waste on such silly questions. IMO, you shouldn't be even on the internet forums wasting time on silly arguements, you should be on the border making strategies on how to defeat and dismember Pakistan....
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Sir.

I would be grateful is the Sir can be dispensed with.

Also, I am not serving right now. :)
 
vstol Jockey said:
@Falcon, Ninda Turtle is claiming that IAF did a surgical strike inside Pakistan after Pathankot terror strike. Which was this? I do know that they did a massive strike after the BSF jawans and officers got killed last year. Govt never made that public.
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Sir.

The concerned unit undertook a retaliation. The usual stuff. I like the Ninja Turtle .... good one.
 
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