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Frankly, that boat sailed a long time ago. Kasuri during his book launch a few years ago in India claimed that Musharraf & Manmohan Singh agreed to a four point formula as a solution to the Kashmir issue in 2006 and then Musharraf lost office. 26/11 put paid to any such efforts fructifying. Besides, there was no confirmation of such a deal by the Indian side then or since. Post that book launch, Hussain Haqqani has gone on record last year in an interview to Shekhar Gupta of The Print quoting Kayani as asking Haqqani not to lay much stress on the Musharraf Manmohan pact dismissing it as something of a Musharraf only plan.

I don't think the Pakistani establishment or the armed forces have actually understood or estimated the anger among the ordinary Indian citizens of the toll the past 40 years of Pakistan sponsored terrorism has taken of the Indian state & it's people.

It's that anger which is driving the politicians to act and not a personal sense of grievance or outrage. Left to their own devices, our ordinary politician will do what he does best - mouth platitudes, make false promises, patronise his audience and make money.

Then there are certain politicians more specifically those belonging to a particular spectrum, who've tapped into this anger to fulfill other aims. It's also an article of faith with them - namely the destruction of the Pakistani state .

While Modi himself is too shrewd to fall into this trap, circumstances like Pulwama binds his hands. As we see more such Pakistan sponsored outrages, the space not to respond and to make such claims of extracting a heavy toll with such responses with credible evidence, shrinks. As does public tolerance for both the conditions in Kashmir and that of the state of Pakistan.

I personally think the time for talks has gone. Besides, what do we talk about? We aren't going to give up Kashmir & you aren't going to settle for anything less. Beginning now or for sometime since URI there's now a belief fast gaining traction within the establishment of re conquering PoJ&K ( so called Azad Kashmir & Northern Areas) . Two things come immediately to ones mind. First is the dire economic state of Pakistan. The second being the belief that we can't let China encircle us which is what the CPEC is seen as through the port in Gwadar and the base coming up at Ormara. I don't think either the US, their European allies, the Russians or even the Japanese and the South koreans will like this as this means energy security for the Chinese and freedom to prosecute it's claims in East Asia beginning with SCS followed by Taiwan and the rest.

The Afghanistan question looms in the background with the Americans poised to leave. The Taliban backed up as they are by the ISI, the PA and tanzeems like the LeT, JeM will do the heavy lifting as last time. This doesn't augur well for us in Kashmir. Then there's Iran and its concerns with similar tanzeems operating out of Pakistan on their soil apart from their concerns about the UAE - KSA - Pakistan nexus and the situation in Afghanistan.

We live in interesting times.

Loved this post. Thank you.
 
I don't think the Kalashnikov culture was the result of the Afghan refugee influx following the Afghan civil war. It's more the doing of the Zia regime where training camps were established, guns freely distributed, local copy cat gunsmiths who set up shop were encouraged and opium dealing by the Mujahideen earlier and the Taliban later began to find patrons in the deep state of Pakistan.
True that it was aided by the Zia regime, but the Afghans and Pukhtoons were the major proponent of personal AKs. The firearms industry of Darra Adam Khel is more than a century old.

I don't think anybody's attempting a full scale invasion of Pakistan. That's not on the cards. What's on the cards is possibly the defanging of Pakistan vis a vis it's NWP and breaking the umbilical cord between Pakistan & China namely the seizure of PoK. If this results in a prolonged civil war followed by the dismemberment of Pakistan, I don't see any one shedding tears except for Pakistani Punjabis. So, these doomsday scenarios that you're concocting will hardly hold true.
I know, that's why I mentioned dismemberment of PA. As far as defanging is concerned, Pakistan knows that increasingly lucrative options are becoming available for the Indian Military, the kind which can encourage it to take (mis-)calculated risks. There's exactly where the doomsday (not literally) scenarios will come into play.

The ones left alive in the region shed the most tears, irrespective of race or boundaries.

There's a section of the establishment here which believes that the business interests of the Pakistan armed forces and the fact that they own a country is precisely what will prevent them from going nuclear come what may or at least if their power is guaranteed to remain unrivaled in a new dispensation whatever shape that new dispensation in a post bellum Pakistan takes.
I cannot emphasize hard enough how flawed belief that is. Despite the corruption in Pakistani Armed Forces, the will to actually fight a nuclear war has been there from the very beginning. You can observe that by certain events: establishment of SPD & NCA for robust C&C as soon as Pakistan had a considerable amount of devices, the early 2000s exercises conducted by SFCs in various terrains/weathers/time of day, rapid mobilization and launch exercises in the late aftermath of Mumbai, declaration of weapon systems beyond a certain diameter to be all-warhead-types capable, deployment of SCCSS (equivalent of US NCC) in the recent years...there are enough indicators for people who can perceive them. In retrospective, I'll point out to 2 things:
- Pakistani Military has considered nuclear war a likely possibility since the 1990s and has prepared for it beyond the need of deterrence.
- Pakistani Military has designed its strategic assets to be survivable since 2001 against a probable US/NATO extraction.

Frankly, We very much doubt that Indian espionage agencies are in contact with the TTP or the Baloch Independence movement. In case of the former, it's quite likely that the establishment here has sub contracted the dirty work to the NDS. In case of the latter, it's Iran who's be fighting a dirty war. There's a good reason why I state this. A few years ago the Jamaat in Bangladesh apprached the Indian foreign office hoping to seek a dialogue and reach some kind of truce given the pummeling they were receiving along with the BNP from the AL .They were turned down. India will have no truck whatsoever with any Islamic revivalist organization. That explains our extreme reluctance to engage the Taliban.

Whether this position will continue indefinitely in the light of the kind of battering the Government in Afghanistan is facing, with not many expecting them to survive US withdrawal, is something time will tell. I personally believe, we should establish some sort of contact with all the malcontents within the state of Pakistan. That way we can build up our own narrative and control it else we'd be at the whims and fancies of other governments which isn't a good situation to be in.
Exactly, sub-contraction and being the man behind the man behind the man, is the way India does it now. Most Indians believe that India never takes below-the-belt shots, but they shouldn't forget the history of Mukti Bahni and LTTE. Its just that India got better at doing it, probably by some lessons learned from the Middle East. It is very peculiar that TTP chose to take out 2x Saab-2000 AEWs instead of the jets parked nearby that bombed them day and night.

Sure, it helps to have some 'strategic' assets beyond enemy lines. Only time will tell if it will be wise move or not, considering the history.

I don’t understand what you’re saying. So iaf deployed 2000 lb spice munitions that did a penetration attack.nwhat is the inconsistency you are referring to?
Perhaps my words are getting lost in translation. Maybe someone from your own kin will help you understand:
This contention that 70-80 kg of explosive would spare the building is debunked by Major General Manik Sabherwal (Retired), the army explosives expert who was called in to reconstruct the explosive devices that killed former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 and Punjab chief minister Beant Singh in 1995.
“A bomb with 70-80 kg of military grade high explosive would destroy a two-storey or three-storey building. Its roof would be blown off, and most of its walls blown out,” Sabherwal told Business Standard.
Broadsword: Did air force use a secret bomb to strike Jaish camp at Balakot?

What is also interesting that the same Pakistani Army which supposedly re-painted the structure, didn't bother to cover the "holes" for 6 days. The planetlabs imagery was taken on 4th March.

movie was released on 27th feb by director ToI, no need to pre-order tickets i will give you give as a gift...... IAF air strike in Pakistan: Mirages took off from Gwalior, not forward base, to retain surprise - Times of India ►
But that's just the script! :(
 
True that it was aided by the Zia regime, but the Afghans and Pukhtoons were the major proponent of personal AKs. The firearms industry of Darra Adam Khel is more than a century old.


I know, that's why I mentioned dismemberment of PA. As far as defanging is concerned, Pakistan knows that increasingly lucrative options are becoming available for the Indian Military, the kind which can encourage it to take (mis-)calculated risks. There's exactly where the doomsday (not literally) scenarios will come into play.

The ones left alive in the region shed the most tears, irrespective of race or boundaries.


I cannot emphasize hard enough how flawed belief that is. Despite the corruption in Pakistani Armed Forces, the will to actually fight a nuclear war has been there from the very beginning. You can observe that by certain events: establishment of SPD & NCA for robust C&C as soon as Pakistan had a considerable amount of devices, the early 2000s exercises conducted by SFCs in various terrains/weathers/time of day, rapid mobilization and launch exercises in the late aftermath of Mumbai, declaration of weapon systems beyond a certain diameter to be all-warhead-types capable, deployment of SCCSS (equivalent of US NCC) in the recent years...there are enough indicators for people who can perceive them. In retrospective, I'll point out to 2 things:
- Pakistani Military has considered nuclear war a likely possibility since the 1990s and has prepared for it beyond the need of deterrence.
- Pakistani Military has designed its strategic assets to be survivable since 2001 against a probable US/NATO extraction.


Exactly, sub-contraction and being the man behind the man behind the man, is the way India does it now. Most Indians believe that India never takes below-the-belt shots, but they shouldn't forget the history of Mukti Bahni and LTTE. Its just that India got better at doing it, probably by some lessons learned from the Middle East. It is very peculiar that TTP chose to take out 2x Saab-2000 AEWs instead of the jets parked nearby that bombed them day and night.

Sure, it helps to have some 'strategic' assets beyond enemy lines. Only time will tell if it will be wise move or not, considering the history.


Perhaps my words are getting lost in translation. Maybe someone from your own kin will help you understand:

Broadsword: Did air force use a secret bomb to strike Jaish camp at Balakot?

What is also interesting that the same Pakistani Army which supposedly re-painted the structure, didn't bother to cover the "holes" for 6 days. The planetlabs imagery was taken on 4th March.


But that's just the script! :(

Ridiculous reference. He was referring to the specific type of explosives device used
 
I will follow you to hell and haunt you there if you die without finishing a writeup on the Chinese front.:devilish: I'm waiting for 19 months. :unsure:


I got down to writing it about a month and a half back, and for the life of me, could not figure out what was the idea behind at the time. Still waiting for it to come back. There was certain thought process, but personal events overtook it and I got busy and missing in action from here.

Was to write something for Western Front too, but the present situation did us in. Had started the work on it.
 
True that it was aided by the Zia regime, but the Afghans and Pukhtoons were the major proponent of personal AKs. The firearms industry of Darra Adam Khel is more than a century old.

But who bears the responsibility for letting these Afghans bearing arms go unchallenged within Pakistan. You do. Nobody else does. The first gun battles between the Pashtuns & the MQM in Karachi started just around the time the Afghan civil war was gaining traction - in the mid 80's. Whom do you blame for it?

The Mukti Bahini & the various Tiger groups in SL were armed by India. That didn't spill over into the local populace now were there clashes between armed groups local or foreign in India on a/c of arming such groups.

While the local arms industry in Darra Adam Khel and other parts of KPK ( including FATA) as well as other parts of Pakistan maybe a century old, these were cottage industries catering to local demand . It's when the authorities turned a blind eye to their booming trade during the initial Afghan civil war, that others saw the lucre, moved in and before you realized it - Voila! You had a small cottage industry transform itself into a medium sized multi million dollar trade in which every ethnicity partook of depending on their political outlook and pie of the Pakistani state. It's purely your negligence and short sighted ness that you have a thriving illicit arms industry still on.

I know, that's why I mentioned dismemberment of PA. As far as defanging is concerned, Pakistan knows that increasingly lucrative options are becoming available for the Indian Military, the kind which can encourage it to take (mis-)calculated risks. There's exactly where the doomsday (not literally) scenarios will come into play.

Dismemberment of the state of Pakistan and the PA are two different things unless this a Freudian slip from your end. Frankly, the ones taking (mis-) calculated risks is the PA. If Pulwama didn't occur, we may still be having this discussion minus the irony. I really don't know why you guys think that the IA would be the ones miscalculatimg here where they have always been in a defensive / reactive role straining at the leash much to their chagrin and utter disgust of most of the members here.

The ones left alive in the region shed the most tears, irrespective of race or boundaries.

The only ones left in & around ground Zero would be truly the unfortunate ones as the fortunate ones would have gone to their reward.

I cannot emphasize hard enough how flawed belief that is. Despite the corruption in Pakistani Armed Forces, the will to actually fight a nuclear war has been there from the very beginning. You can observe that by certain events: establishment of SPD & NCA for robust C&C as soon as Pakistan had a considerable amount of devices, the early 2000s exercises conducted by SFCs in various terrains/weathers/time of day, rapid mobilization and launch exercises in the late aftermath of Mumbai, declaration of weapon systems beyond a certain diameter to be all-warhead-types capable, deployment of SCCSS (equivalent of US NCC) in the recent years...there are enough indicators for people who can perceive them. In retrospective, I'll point out to 2 things:
- Pakistani Military has considered nuclear war a likely possibility since the 1990s and has prepared for it beyond the need of deterrence.
- Pakistani Military has designed its strategic assets to be survivable since 2001 against a probable US/NATO extraction.

I hope a lot of members here are reading this with keen interest. Especially the veterans & the professionals. I've myself argued that if our end goals is seizing PoJ&K, it ought to commence with a total de fanging of Pakistan NWP, along with its FM, vectors, reactors, N weapons storage sites, etc either in tandem with the west or alone if we have real capabilities to mount such an attack.

As of now we know the N threshold of Pakistan isn't as low as they claim it is. We can only wonder how flexible / high is it.

However, there's a lot of doubt on the yield of your warheads. There's still strong doubts about whether its progressed in any manner beyond what the Chinese designs of the early 80's were. Ditto for the CM / BM vectors which most view as outdated Chinese technology. There's good reason to harbour such beliefs among a section of our establishment.

To come to your point about Pakistan preparing itself to fight a N war beyond the need of deterrence and having prepared for N extraction by the West, I'd conclude by writing that I don't doubt the former ( the same would hold true from our end) & you will definitely not survive the latter. It's just a question of the will to be exercised by India in sustaining the fallout of a few such devices going off across our land and the intent of the west in making it happen come what may. The day the resolve between these two entities manifests itself, Pakistan will have no place to hide. We seem to be approaching such a situation sooner rather than later.

Exactly, sub-contraction and being the man behind the man behind the man, is the way India does it now. Most Indians believe that India never takes below-the-belt shots, but they shouldn't forget the history of Mukti Bahni and LTTE. Its just that India got better at doing it, probably by some lessons learned from the Middle East. It is very peculiar that TTP chose to take out 2x Saab-2000 AEWs instead of the jets parked nearby that bombed them day and night.


There's a difference here. The NDS is an interested party. They aren't useful idiots or mercenaries for hire. They have much more of a vested interest in striking Pakistan given the havoc you've wrought in Afghanistan. In scale it's much much more compared to what you've been subjecting us to.Hence this isn't about us giving them money and painting a target. It's much more deeper than that and much more personal for the NDS. Finally, you've also provoked Iran by your recent shenanigans. The US is still hovering around with their drones intact. The next time there's a massive strike, I really don't know whom are you going to blame.


Sure, it helps to have some 'strategic' assets beyond enemy lines. Only time will tell if it will be wise move or not, considering the history.

it's never a wise move but then a wise enemy is better than a foolish friend as the Chinese will soon find out and as we have found such wisdom displayed by the Chinese on our Eastern borders. To end with Afghanistan is to us what you are to the Chinese. While I'm not claiming Iron Brother status here, it's quite close. And by the looks of it, Iran isn't too far behind either.
 
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I got down to writing it about a month and a half back, and for the life of me, could not figure out what was the idea behind at the time. Still waiting for it to come back. There was certain thought process, but personal events overtook it and I got busy and missing in action from here.

Was to write something for Western Front too, but the present situation did us in. Had started the work on it.
Thanks, No issues. Take your time.
 
Ridiculous reference. He was referring to the specific type of explosives device used
I challenged him for a debate - he ran away.
for him everything ISPR is "substantiated, evidenced" claims
everything MEA India says is "unsubstantiated"
its not a rational debate if he doesnt want to even look at other claims and see it is possible that ISPR could be lying.
 
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