Chinese Wuhan Virus Thread

The studies failed to predict in lockdown period, why should we trust they will work in post lock down period? I can search and find you studies done in post lockdown period which again failed to predict peak correctly, all done but "Indian" institutes. You are confident of one study AFTER the fact.

Yeah, getting dumber and dumber.

Studies are conducted based on prevalent data. Data during lockdown will obviously be different from data post lockdown.

You do know that for someone to say that cases have peaked, positivity rate should be in control (around 5%) with increased testing while cases plateau or go down. Otherwise we are not testing enough.

4 days back positivity rate in B'lore was 55%!
WHO says you need to keep it at 5% to know if you are doing enough testing. Basically in B;lore you were running out of tests to find more covid tests.


Dumber and dumber, this is probably my 4th time saying data for active cases will be under-reported.
 
Its not impossible. Its rare but it happens too.

I am hearing All kinds of cases amongst my friends and amongst a large number of near and distant relatives

It is exactly similar to news reports
That are coming in

Critical people becoming All Right

Young people suddenly dying
The youngest I knew personally was 28 , My cousin' s Manager in his office

2 people in 40s have also died

However Most are Asymptomatic and mild

Kids and youngsters are bringing Corona in the household

Elderly are dying quickly in just 2 or 3
Days

My neighbors , A family of 3 are infected , However the lady has just
Recovered from Cancer , I hope she is able to recover soon
 
That Old Concept of " Survival of the Fittest " by Charles Darwin has become True today in this Corona pandemic
It also true that Indians will never evolve and they will be as incompetent as they were 1000 years before. But they also survive (exist...).... Somewhat darwins theory is not applicable to Indians.

I hereby propose damodar's theory , some thing which rots & reaches a large critical mass will stay in that state for a unreasonable long period of time defying time & resource crunch. Large critical mass will sustain itself by feeding of itself but will undergo no change whatsoever.
 
Dumber and dumber, this is probably my 4th time saying data for active cases will be under-reported.
Dear, the dumb one here is you. Absolutely dumb. Here is why. The cases you are concerened with are NEW cases idiot, NOT just active cases. If your positivity rate is 20-55% then how the hell you know that you are peaking OR if you are not testing enough. Sorry mate, you dun-goof.

Yeah, getting dumber and dumber.

Studies are conducted based on prevalent data. Data during lockdown will obviously be different from data post lockdown.
LOL! Yeah. Since it does not fit your believes so lockdown data bad! non lockdown data good!

Actually lets take a look at it. Lets take a look at the model you are so much enamoured with : IIT-KGP model/prediction (http://cse.iitkgp.ac.in/~abhij/COVID19/report.pdf). It uses basic logistic function to make predictions (Logistic function - Wikipedia). It turns out it is NOT what you think it is.

Here are the results what he predicted :
1620585979290.png

How to read this? Simple. The blue curve is the model prediction. The red lines are real data.

1. It uses data mainly from lockdown period ie April end to early June (LOL!, dumb, right? According to you isn't it?) as best estimator for predicting! The same data you are saying "dumber and dumber". And guess what? Horrors! The author use it to predict what will happen AFTER lockdown. I guess we know who is dumb now. Its YOU who don't know a damn thing about the actual underlying work and honking your horn all over. Infact in conclusion here is what he says :

Despite several attempts to improve the performance of the model, the results produced by the predictor are unreliable. It appears that this is because of considerable changes in the spread pattern of the disease in India over time. This may be attributed to various causes, like different mobility patterns of Indian people in different phases of lockdown, large-scale migration of laborers, change in diagnostic facilities, evolution of the coronavirus, and so on. These causes are well beyond the control of the logistic model (or any other prediction model for that matter).

2. The model WRONGLY predicts Maharashtra to have already peaked in June. Actual peak in Maharashtra last year happened in Mid September.
1620586244330.png

3. Model predicts West Bengal to peak near 1st July. It was not even close!
1620586421175.png

4. For all India, the model predicts Peak in MID JUNE actually. Which we know is WRONG. When author said Pandemic won't END till september, he meant Zero or very few new cases and NOT peak new cases.

5. This study, like ALL other studies did not use ANY non-public data. The entire idea that IITs etc have some special data available to them is bogus.

Those who really study the discipline of statistics, modelling and simulation know the limitations of their work. Dumb people like you toot without even understanding what the hell they are dealing with. As I said, all models are wrong, some are useful.
That Old Concept of " Survival of the Fittest " by Charles Darwin has become True today in this Corona pandemic
Be careful in using that sentence. "Fit" in Charles Darwinian sense is the one who successfully reproduces before dying. So the 40 year old guy who died due to covid is fit if he had a son or a daughter. "Fit" does not mean to stay alive but just to stay alive long enough to reproduce.
 
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I am hearing All kinds of cases amongst my friends and amongst a large number of near and distant relatives

It is exactly similar to news reports
That are coming in

Critical people becoming All Right

Young people suddenly dying
The youngest I knew personally was 28 , My cousin' s Manager in his office

2 people in 40s have also died

However Most are Asymptomatic and mild

Kids and youngsters are bringing Corona in the household

Elderly are dying quickly in just 2 or 3
Days

My neighbors , A family of 3 are infected , However the lady has just
Recovered from Cancer , I hope she is able to recover soon
Yeah. Its happening here in Canada too. Deaths are now showing more in younger population. The prevalent explanation is the age based vaccination. The older folks (50+ OR 60+) have more vaccination than younger ones.
 

Link - Zycov D market release in Jun


ZyCoV-D, the made-in-India Covid vaccine by Zydus Cadila, likely to hit markets in June

The Ahmedabad-based pharmaceutical firm plans to begin with manufacturing one crore doses a month. The vaccine is also being tested on adolescents.​

HIMANI CHANDNA 13 May, 2021 8:00 am IST

A woman being vaccinated against Covid in Uttar Pradesh on Saturday | For representation only | ThePrintA woman being vaccinated against Covid in Uttar Pradesh on Saturday | For representation only | ThePrint
Text Size: A- A+
New Delhi: Ahmedabad-based pharmaceutical firm Zydus Cadila is likely to begin supplying ZyCoV-D, a Covid-19 vaccine manufactured by it, from June.
ZyCoV-D will be the country’s second indigenously-developed vaccine against the novel coronavirus, after Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin.
With plans to manufacture 240 million (24 crore) doses of ZyCoV-D in a year, the drug maker is expecting to submit the efficacy data to the regulator, Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI), by the end of this month.
“Our vaccine trial for ZyCoV-D, which is a plasmid DNA vaccine, is progressing well. We are looking to submit the data by the end of May and eventually look for approval in June,” Dr. Sharvil Patel, managing director, Zydus Group told ThePrint.
ZyCoV-D is a three-dose vaccine.

“We hope to see our efficacy data this month. As soon as we see strong efficacy, which correlates to the strong immunogenicity in Phase II [of the clinical trials], we will look to file for an Emergency User Authorisation.”

Also read: Increase vaccine manufacturing, share tech with poor nations to fight Covid: global panel

Aim to produce 24 crore doses a year

The vaccine is likely to hit the market soon after the approvals are received — which is June according to Zydus Cadila’s expectations.
“We will start supplies in the month of June. We plan to manufacture 240 million doses of ZyCoV-D in a year,” said Patel.
The company plans to begin with manufacturing one crore doses a month and eventually double the production, and may collaborate with other manufacturers to boost the capacity.
“Initially we will start off with producing 10 million (1 crore) doses a month, and subsequently we are looking at how to double the capacity to 20 million (2 crore) doses a month,” he said.
The vaccine is also being tested on adolescents, which will of help should the country decide to open vaccination for those in this age category.
“We have included the elderly, those with co-morbidities, and also children in the age group of 12-17 years in the trials,” said Patel.

Also read: Growing plasma, remdesivir use will help Covid virus mutate, become stronger: Ex-ICMR scientist

How it works

ZyCoV-D is a ‘DNA vaccine’ that works against the major viral membrane protein, responsible for the novel coronavirus’ entry into body cells.
It is based on plasmid DNA, a small, circular and extrachromosomal bacterial DNA, used in genetic engineering.
The plasmid DNA has the unique property of self-replication, owing to which it can be used in different kinds of molecular genetic research, such as gene therapy, gene transfer and recombinant DNA technology.
Zydus Cadila has recruited over 28,000 volunteers for the trials for ZyCoV-D and claims it to be “by far the largest trial [for Covid vaccine] being done in the country right now.”
“The Phase III trials of our vaccine will be truly representative of the efficacy of the vaccine against many of the known variants [of the virus], as different variants have surfaced in this wave [of the pandemic]. So the trial outcomes will have more representative efficacy data than any other vaccine,” said Patel.
As India struggles to fight the deadly second Covid wave, with daily infections crossing four lakh in the beginning of April according to official data, the company has already begun discussions with other vaccine and drug manufacturers that can help boost the production of ZyCoV-D.
“We are in the process of agreement with one or two Indian manufacturers to boost the capacity. However, technology transfer is challenging and a time-taking process,” said Patel, without disclosing the name of the companies they are in talks with.
(Edited by Poulomi Banerjee)
 
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TN will see spike in deaths in real.
Beds are full in medical college s.
Severe cases were returned and were asked to be treated at taluk level GH.
 
TN will see spike in deaths in real.
Beds are full in medical college s.
Severe cases were returned and were asked to be treated at taluk level GH.

The dysfunctionality of the TN govt is finally becoming clear. TN people shouldn't have voted these morons into power.
 
The dysfunctionality of the TN govt is finally becoming clear. TN people shouldn't have voted these morons into power.

Situation will be the same with any party.

For example a taluk Hq GH had 6 ventilator before covid 19 first wave.

Guess what s number now.

Same 6.

One could have ordered xxx numbers of ventilator s when other countries were facing second wave.

We have to watch out for third wave in other countries and prepare for it.

On the bright side, number of private hospital taking in moderate cases are increasing..
Except remdesvir availability is limited to GH because of short supply.

Our only hope is on private sector to gear up for the next wave..
 
Situation will be the same with any party.

For example a taluk Hq GH had 6 ventilator before covid 19 first wave.

Guess what s number now.

Same 6.

One could have ordered xxx numbers of ventilator s when other countries were facing second wave.

We have to watch out for third wave in other countries and prepare for it.

On the bright side, number of private hospital taking in moderate cases are increasing..
Except remdesvir availability is limited to GH because of short supply.

Our only hope is on private sector to gear up for the next wave..

Lack of development in TN would have been long addressed by BJP and base infra would have been built up decades ago like we did in Maha, MP, goa etc.
 
Situation will be the same with any party.

For example a taluk Hq GH had 6 ventilator before covid 19 first wave.

Guess what s number now.

Same 6.

One could have ordered xxx numbers of ventilator s when other countries were facing second wave.

We have to watch out for third wave in other countries and prepare for it.

On the bright side, number of private hospital taking in moderate cases are increasing..
Except remdesvir availability is limited to GH because of short supply.

Our only hope is on private sector to gear up for the next wave..

This is politics all over India. Politicians know they win elections based on freebies rather than building hospitals. Why would they invest in ventilators when free liquor, bus rides, electricity, water etc is what it takes to win.

But this time coronavirus has done deep damage to psyche of people. I guess there will be a transition in mindset of people who will vote for different development parameters next time, just like how vehicle market moved from fuel average to safety features.
 
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Are you trolling?

Don't just stop at the headline, look at who is doing the study first.


How do you under-report death?

Are people so stupid that they won't know the the reason for the death of their kin?
Families know but as most of patients were not admitted by hospital, hence their deaths were not recorded in system. Bodies were cremated in Manikarnika ghat (Ghat specially for burning bodies on the bank of Ganga river in Varanasi). Saying this for my village and next one only in Varanasi. 31 deaths happened in next village.
 
Sorry to hear that.

You can't cremate or bury a body without a doctor confirming the person is dead. Or you could very well be burying or burning someone alive. You can't just pick up a person lying on the road, go to a crematorium, burn him and then walk out. That's not how it works. There's a pretty long paper trail for the entire process. Also you don't have to do anything, the hospital and crematorium will take care of everything after you initiate the process.

In Bangalore, upon the death of a loved one at home, you first need to fill Form 2 from the local corporation office. After which you go to a local hospital and bring a doctor home. Then the local hospital gives you a Cause of Death Certificate under the doctor's name. The hospital also sends the same to the local registrar. Following which, the registrar conducts their own enquiry with the hospital and issues a death certificate after last rites. The last rites cannot be conducted without the Cause of Death Certificate. After cremation as well, you get a Cremation Certificate, which is needed in order to get the Death Certificate.

You get both birth and death certificates from the govt, not the hospital.

So what you're basically saying is everybody from the local doctor, local hospital to the crematorium are involved in hiding the cause of deaths, and that private hospitals are running around issuing fake Cause of Death Certificates. Do you see how stupid that is? Do you even understand the scale of coruption needed for this to happen, especially when most local hospitals are privately owned? So yeah, dude, a hospital will happily risk shutting down and all involved doctors arrested in order to protect the govt in doing something the govt is not interested in doing in the first place. Stop reading conspiracy theories being peddled by the critics of the govt. You can fake active cases, but you can't fake deaths.

Again, I'm sorry for your loss.
This doesn't happen in villages, I have experienced this myself. Doctors (mostly retired doctor practice in villages as there is lack of government doctors there.) just check the veins (called naadi in Hindi) and heartbeat. If no pulse found, they inform family members that person is expired already. Family take them for cremation or burial. It is as simple as that. As we live next to Varanasi airport and railway station, it is considered well devloped by village standards. For name we have regional block development centre in our village itself but that is all limited on papers. Not much exists except dilapidated structures where one vet doctor resides. This is the condition of our village, I am not even talking about remote villages and their distance to government hospital & doctor access.

The picture that you are trying to paint, it seems to me mate you haven't lived in villages.
 
My neighbor land lady's brother had expired few days back. Today her mother expired as well.
 
This doesn't happen in villages, I have experienced this myself. Doctors (mostly retired doctor practice in villages as there is lack of government doctors there.) just check the veins (called naadi in Hindi) and heartbeat. If no pulse found, they inform family members that person is expired already. Family take them for cremation or burial. It is as simple as that. As we live next to Varanasi airport and railway station, it is considered well devloped by village standards. For name we have regional block development centre in our village itself but that is all limited on papers. Not much exists except dilapidated structures where one vet doctor resides. This is the condition of our village, I am not even talking about remote villages and their distance to government hospital & doctor access.

The picture that you are trying to paint, it seems to me mate you haven't lived in villages.

I have lived in villages, I am from a farming family myself. But my village is a bit more developed than the typical village, kinda like yours, and connected to a town that's smaller than Varanasi.

Anyway, Covid has not hit rural areas as much as cities, so Covid related deaths reported in villages are unlikely to push the figures to 2x or 3x or such large numbers for all of India. So most of the rural areas suffering from Covid are those that are sort of like satellite towns, with close proximity and consistent people to people contacts.

Also this is the case even in developed countries, since dead bodies are not tested for Covid or a postmortem is not done for every case. So a lot of undiagnosed Covid deaths are happening the world over.

The mortality rate in India is extremely low, and it's likely that village mortality rates are even lower.

Also, when it comes to cities, where we have the most infections and deaths, most people are dying within the hospital's ability to record such deaths. Only extremely few people are dying before receiving care in cities, minus the few thousand people who died early on due to lack of beds or oxygen. Regardless most who are showing moderate symptoms are getting tested, and those who die amongst them will be in the system after that.

Those exaggerating the number of deaths are actually suggesting that at least 4 or 5 or 10 people are dying without access to a hospital compared to that 1 person who is being registered. It's like people are assuming all those Covid patients who are struggling to breathe are somehow trying to walk if off and not even attempting to reach a hospital or contact a doctor. You see how impossible that really is. It's common sense to assume that Covid patients with breathing problems are doing their best to reach a hospital in time. And the warning signs for such patients last at least a few days before they need oxygen or a hospital bed.