Chinese Wuhan Virus Thread

STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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Another dickraa who's bitten off more than he can chew. I'm betting Modi & tem were sitting pretty conjuring up dreams of getting India completely vaccinated by Nov Dec 2021 till the crisis in March unravelled & they discovered Poonawallah the dickraa was talking thru his hat.

Hello Sir , Welcome Back

You were away for more than a month
 

_Anonymous_

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lcafanboy

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Dec 22, 2017
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Amiet R. Kashyap (@Amitraaz) Tweeted:
DCGI approves anti-COVID drug(2-DG) developed by @DRDO_India for emergency use
Clinical trial results have shown that this molecule helps in faster recovery of hospitalised patients and reduces supplemental oxygen dependence.

The drug comes in powder form in sachet, which is https://t.co/oAz09Wszuc
Good News. DRDO developed covid19 medicine...
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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Are our documented numbers believable? By even our population? By now majority of people have seen the devastation and under reporting, lack of testings intentionally all acorss the statues ruled by all political parties.

Active cases? No. It's impossible for any country to get an accurate number for this.

Deaths? Not very accurate but should be quite close to the actual number. It's because the cause of death will be quite evident and easily identifiable in the case of COVID. Plus most of these deaths will have family and acquaintances identifying the cause straightaway to the authorities in case the person was not hospitalised.

Even with the worst case of under-reporting, it's unlikely to be more than 2x the official numbers. At best, there could be 5-10% of under-reporting.

But it will definitely take time for all the reports to be statistically completed. Most death reports are likely from hospitals right now.
 

randomradio

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Oh dear! Ever the optimist. :) Thats not a bad thing given the current time.

My only gripe is we won't easily know if the situation has peaked. We are not tracking deaths properly, we are in high positivity region. We need to test 4-8 times more but we are no where close to that. We are basically flying with half closed eyes right now. We will know it only when the number of cases fall dramatically and our positivity rate falls due to rate.
[/QUOTE]

I'm not the one saying it. Experts are.

 
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Saaho

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I'm not the one saying it. Experts are.


From the very article you are quoting :

A mathematical model prepared by advisers to Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggests India’s coronavirus outbreak could peak in the coming days, but the group’s projections have been changing and were wrong last month.

Read more at: India’s Modeling Has Covid Outbreak Peaking in Coming Days
Copyright © BloombergQuint

And
In April, Vidyasagar’s team wrongly predicted that the wave would peak by the middle of last month. That was due to incorrect parameters as “the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago,” he wrote on Twitter at the time. More recently, he told Reuters that the peak would be between May 3-5, and then the India Today publication that it would come on May 7.

The truth is, data about extent of present situation is pandemic is highly unreliable. Only thing we know is that it is bad, really bad. What is the extent? No one knows. We are neither testing enough or capturing enough data about death and hospitalization or development of severe symptoms to comment on the disease.

Lastly, never compare predictions with past. Prediction are well unreliable for obvious reasons. Hence compare them to europe once it is done.

Remember, last year the same experts were saying the pandemic will peak in may then june then july. It went all the way upto october.
 
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Saaho

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You know very well why I felt disgusted not only as an Indian but also as a fellow human being.

Go to Post 4210 and read the last line. That you had wished for pendemic to spread in Pakistan and how much fun that would be for you. No matter what the enmity we might have with them, that's not what any sane person including Indians will wish for. Utterly disgusted.
You know this moral high ground is stupidity. Its like turning your face away from reality. The reality is that deaths and suffering in India are always celebrated in Pakistan and are always used for propaganda in China. In west it is used to feel good about their "western" self. Its about time we recognize it and hate the *censored*s in Pakistan back with equal force.
When ever and where ever we get chance, we should drive the dagger and twist it while we are at it. Because remember, they wont miss it.
 

Saaho

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Active cases? No. It's impossible for any country to get an accurate number for this.
Its the problem of order of magnitude.
For UK, it could be twice.
For India it is atleast 5 times if not 10 times.

How do I know?
Well, Positivity rate of UK at the last peak of their pandemic was 12.80%

India?
Its 24% now.


Deaths? Not very accurate but should be quite close to the actual number.
Its not passing the smell test (pardon my morbid language). 4000 to 5000 extra deaths cannot cause over flow of crematoriums all over India.
 
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randomradio

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From the very article you are quoting :



And


The truth is, data about extent of present situation is pandemic is highly unreliable. Only thing we know is that it is bad, really bad. What is the extent? No one knows. We are neither testing enough or capturing enough data about death and hospitalization or development of severe symptoms to comment on the disease.

Lastly, never compare predictions with past. Prediction are well unreliable for obvious reasons. Hence compare them to europe once it is done.

Remember, last year the same experts were saying the pandemic will peak in may then june then july. It went all the way upto october.

They were wrong then because everybody was wrong at that point, when they assumed it was the UK variant going around, not the double mutant.

Last year, they said it will peak in September and it did.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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Its not passing the smell test (pardon my morbid language). 4000 to 5000 extra deaths cannot cause over flow of crematoriums all over India.

Yes, it can. Our crematoriums have not been designed for mass cremations. And cremations itself take a long time.
 

Saaho

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They were wrong then because everybody was wrong at that point, when they assumed it was the UK variant going around, not the double mutant.

Last year, they said it will peak in September and it did.

Its not too hard to test your hypothesis. Here is the google search:

query: cases will peak in india
time limited: results seen TILL 30th April 2020



See the results for yourself.

Yes, it can. Our crematoriums have not been designed for mass cremations.
Well when districts say there are only 10-12 deaths a day and there are 30-40 pyres lit while equal number waiting for cremation, I don't see what else to conclude but that we are massively underreporting the deaths.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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Its not too hard to test. Here is the google search:
query: cases will peak in india
time limited: results seen TILL 30th April 2020



See the results for yourself.


Are you trolling?

Don't just stop at the headline, look at who is doing the study first.
Well when districts say there are only 10-12 deaths a day and there are 30-40 pyres lit while equal number waiting for cremation, I don't see what else to conclude but that we are massively underreporting the deaths.

How do you under-report death?

Are people so stupid that they won't know the the reason for the death of their kin?
 

Saaho

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Are you trolling?

Don't just stop at the headline, look at who is doing the study first.
The coronavirus epidemic could peak in India by the middle of May and gradually peter out after that, a modelling exercise by Times Network in partnership with global consulting firm Protiviti, has predicted.

Most experts -- based on speculations around what'll happen after May 3 and the government's preventive strategy -- agree the COVID-19 cases will start peaking May-end or June.

ARCHANA SHUKLA
@archanajsr
Share
Afair share of Indian population can acquire herd immunity probably by winter this year or early next year, said Professor K Srinath Reddy of the Public Health Foundation of India.
...
Reddy expects COVID-19 cases in the country to peak out by early May in an event of a successful lockdown.

...
Reddy, also a member of the National Task Force on COVID-19 management, says testing is a useful tool, but not a panacea to control infection.
The US-based Centre for Disease, Dynamics and Economic Policy (CDDEP), has in its report dated April 20 said India’s total SARS-COV-2 infections up to September could be as high as 111 crore, even with “hard lockdown, continued social distancing and isolation of cases”

The Indian Chest Society (ICS) has evaluated that India is likely to experience its peak in terms positive Covid-19 cases by the end of April.

The coronavirus epidemic could peak in India by the middle of May and gradually peter out after that

A report based on modelling exercise by international experts has predicted three different possibilities



About time you start doing the same.
 
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Saaho

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How do you under-report death?

Are people so stupid that they won't know the the reason for the death of their kin?
Will those people be able to update the number of deaths reported by Ministry of Health each day? I doubt that.
Thats under-reporting. Official data is under-reproting deaths.

Word on street is usually qualitative only.