None of them have actual data. Only the govt sponsored institutes have them.
Oh, and how do you know that's not happening?
None of them have actual data. Only the govt sponsored institutes have them.
Oh, and how do you know that's not happening?
How do you know even government has actual data? The underreporting is essentially this : They are not even able to collect the data. A lot of deaths are happening outside hospitals and in this pandemic no one has time to register death with municipal corporation. Besides, data from municipal corporations take a long time flowing into any researchable records.
Lastly, if any govt funded institute makes prediction, they will have to quote their sources of data and methodology \ if they want their research publishable. Hence, all will have access to data. Data parity won't last long.
Also, a certain Prof Reddy was a member of National Task Force on COVID-19 management. He also massively under-estimated COVID last year. His opinion was May 2020 we will reach the peak of cases and by winter we will have herd immunity. We know how it turned out, don't we?
As I said, word on street is qualitative. I don't know the extend of under reporting but then 30-40 pyres are seen lit in a district that has reported 10-12 deaths of covid, you know something is a miss.
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Coronavirus | Cases may peak in India as early as mid-September, says expert
India may see COVID-19 cases peaking as early as in two months if there are strong public health measures and people take all precautions
may peak in India as early as mid-September provided strong public health measures are in place and people behave in a responsible manner to contain the virus, president of Public Health Foundation of India, K. Srinath Reddy, said on Saturday.
Kolkata Corona Update: Covid-19 to stay till at least September; IIT Kharagpur stat study | Kolkata News - Times of India
India is unlikely to get rid of Covid-19 before September, a statistical model created by by IIT Kharagpur predicts.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
India is unlikely to get rid of Covid-19 before September, a statistical model created by by IIT Kharagpur predicts.
These guys know what they are talking about. Some of them being part of the Indian govt, they have the data needed for such analysis. Private studies and international experts don't have all the data needed.
If a study does not have IIT, IISC or "India" in it, then chuck it out.
How dumb. I've already pointed out that active cases are being under-reported, it's all because people are not getting themselves tested. But if you are dead, then the reason for death will obviously go on record. You are basically saying people dying of COVID are being reported as death under other causes, like a train wreck, no one is stupid enough to allow that to happen to their kin. Even if they are, the percentage will be miniscule. Especially so if you consider most deaths are happening in urban areas, where people are educated enough. Plus it's hospitals that decide whether a person is dead or not along with the cause of death before the body is allowed to be cremated or buried. You can't do either without a hospital certificate.
At best you can claim that the death count is being updated slower than necessary. Even then the difference won't be ridiculously large enough to make an actual dent in the current figures. The final figures will be reached once an audit is completed a few months later, and even those could only be as wide as 20-30%, not 2x or 3x or 5x or whatever number is being thrown around right now.
No, I am saying that a lot of deaths are not registered ANYWHERE! Because they died in their homes or worse outside on the hospital pavement waiting for oxygen. Rest of your argument becomes useless.
How do you know that? How are you confident that only 20% or 30% is the error?
What if no one is going to municipal corporation to register deaths right now because ... duh... pandemic!? What if private hospitals are not sending any data anywhere because no one is bothered about it right now ... because they are already bogged down by pandemic?
Your entire point is based on this assumption : Most of the deaths are confined to hospitals who are reporting deaths. It is very likely this assumption is wrong. A lot of deaths are happening in homes. A lot of private hospitals are simply unable to report because of pandemic.
The same Dr Reddy was saying the Peak will happen in Mid May in April 2020. Which of his statement should be taken as correct? And how do you know when it is correct BEFORE the fact?
If I keep on saying every month that the panemic will peak month or the month after that, well sooner or later I will be correct.
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Cool!
How about this then :
Covid-19 cases to peak in India in June-July: AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria
Speaking to India Today TV, Dr Randeep Guleria said that the number of cases is likely to go down after the peak.
Covid-19 cases to peak in India in June-July: AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria
"Going as per the trend, the peak [of coronavirus outbreak in India] is expected to be in June," Dr Guleria said, adding that the lockdown did help the country keeping the number of cases low as compared to the global trend.
"All India" Checked!
Or How about this ?
R0 at 1.27 but experts say India yet to hit Covid peak, lockdown alone can't end pandemic
Covid-19 cases in India continue to grow despite 44 days of lockdown, though the rate of growth is significantly lower than in the early days of its spread.
theprint.in
IISER Kolkata model
"Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research""India" Checked
Or This one:
IIT Guwahati researchers predicts Maharashtra, Gujarat will have maximum COVID cases by May 31. Here's why
IIT Guwahati researchers predicts Maharashtra, Gujarat will have maximum COVID cases by May 31. Here's why
The assessment takes into account the Daily Infection Rate in each state and helps to get a better understanding of how the pandemic is spreading and is an indicator of how fast it is moving
In a bid to help central and state government policymakers deal better with the COVID-19 situation, researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati and the Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, have come up with a state-wise assessment of the current situation. They have also used data science models to analyse and predict the total number of infected people for different states in India over the the course of May. According to their prediction, Gujarat and Maharashtra are the two states that stand to have the major infection spurt by May 31.
"IIT" Checked
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Thats your belief or you have evidence or reasoning for that? Or is it that "eventual consistency" model? All deaths eventually get registered? Let me be specific, a large number of deaths happen in homes during this pandemic and they are unlikely to get registered in timeframe of months because... well.. pandemic.
BTW, I am still waiting to see how did you come up with 20% 30% figure.
Well, thats not an argument. It seems more like an admission that you have none left.
Opinion of an expert employed at All India Institute of Medical Sciences.
Weren't you also quoting just opinion of a certain Dr. Reddy?
Or are we shifting goal post again? Or may be different standards?
The fact that you have to resort to personal attacks tells us extent of your knowledge.
Here is what IISER Model and its author said (The guy is a Prof at IISER Kolkata, you known "India" )
He was considering lockdown and its effects. And yet lets see what was happening during month of May (when lockdown was still in force).
The daily cases were not just increasing, they were increasing daily at a faster pace. No dip in daily cases happened in May AT ALL. His assumption (which his model was based on) that enforcement of lockdown will get better with time was either wrong or was not significant AT ALL in predicting daily cases.
I can go on and show how little you understand the models and their assumptions which these experts use in EACH case. The upshot is simple: You cann't rely on these models.
The question was not "when situation deteriorated" BUT "inability of models to know WHEN the peak will happen" Jeez such a strawman argument!
In a nutshell, these models experts and predictions fell flat on their face in predicting peak even during lockdown (Lasting in one form or other till June/July). Their prediction of Peak kept on failing again and again. The covid cases daily kept on going up and up even with lockdown in place during this time with no peak in sight.
Last, I myself studied at IIT-Delhi so I do know what I am talking about and how much reliable these models tend to be. The first thing you learn in modelling and simulation is this : All models are wrong. Some can be useful.
LOL! Says the guy who believes all covid deaths are getting registered. Need I say more?
What do you think they will do with the body after that?
That's how the rule of thumb works. It's not even 2x.
*yawn* Didn't even read all the nonsense after "Opinion of an expert".
Family will cremate the body or burry it. I lost 5 family members. 1 in hospital and 4 in their homes.
Only hospital case we got death certificate and registration in municipal corporation. Remaining ones we have nothing. There is no registration nothing. We only have a SMS confirming the Covid positive from local health bodies and nothing else. No follow up, nothing. I highly doubt records know anything about such deaths. There is no one in municipal corporation to register death.
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LOL! No wonder!
In bhopal 1000 bodies were cremated. Government records show just 50 covid deaths.
In kanpur, a bigger city, about 500 cremation were held in one day (up from 100) and government records show only 3 covid deaths.
Its hard to believe that there is 20-30% under counting. Its most likely more than that.
The young in these 2 Varanasi villages started to die. That's when Covid became 'real'
In villages near Varanasi they were not even testing for covid! All the deaths occurred there could not have been attributed to covid.
In WB, officially accepted error in cause of death was of order of 50% in registered cases.
BTW, this was last year, when body count was lesser and cases were lesser : Covid-19 deaths in Bengal double in 5 days as govt junks casualty audit panel
As I said, this does not pass the smell test. We do not know how much death can be attributed to covid other than its large and massively under reported.
Well you only insist on experts, don't you? Now why are you running away from "opinions of experts"? Or are you selective about opinion that help you keep your believes intact?
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Sorry to hear that.
You can't cremate or bury a body without a doctor confirming the person is dead. Or you could very well be burying or burning someone alive. You can't just pick up a person lying on the road, go to a crematorium, burn him and then walk out. That's not how it works. There's a pretty long paper trail for the entire process. Also you don't have to do anything, the hospital and crematorium will take care of everything after you initiate the process.
In Bangalore, upon the death of a loved one at home, you first need to fill Form 2 from the local corporation office. After which you go to a local hospital and bring a doctor home. Then the local hospital gives you a Cause of Death Certificate under the doctor's name. The hospital also sends the same to the local registrar. Following which, the registrar conducts their own enquiry with the hospital and issues a death certificate after last rites. The last rites cannot be conducted without the Cause of Death Certificate. After cremation as well, you get a Cremation Certificate, which is needed in order to get the Death Certificate.
You get both birth and death certificates from the govt, not the hospital.
So what you're basically saying is everybody from the local doctor, local hospital to the crematorium are involved in hiding the cause of deaths, and that private hospitals are running around issuing fake Cause of Death Certificates. Do you see how stupid that is? Do you even understand the scale of coruption needed for this to happen, especially when most local hospitals are privately owned? So yeah, dude, a hospital will happily risk shutting down and all involved doctors arrested in order to protect the govt in doing something the govt is not interested in doing in the first place. Stop reading conspiracy theories being peddled by the critics of the govt. You can fake active cases, but you can't fake deaths.
Again, I'm sorry for your loss.
Lots of fake news and conspiracy theories. It's not gonna be 2x or 5x or 10x or 100x simply 'cause it's impossible.
Even the 20-30% error is just clerical error at best because the system is currently overwhelmed. Once proper investigations are conducted by the local registrars and the cause of death is properly confirmed and audited, the correct number will be revealed. It will definitely be higher than what has been currently disclosed, but it's not going to be some insane number. Even for the local doctor, discovering the cause of death is easy if it's Covid since there's a few days of history behind the illness. A doctor's not going to make up a cause of death when there are positive clues to the actual cause of death. The generic cause when it's unknown is the basic "Cardio-respiratory" failure, which won't fly with Covid.
Google the meanings of "opinions" and "studies".
In our case, for one person, Dr asked for the person to be brought to clinic compound, looked at the person, confirmed death and walked away. Thats all! No paper trail is being maintained anywhere in our case and this was a major city. Most likely he will write paperwork for us later. Registration for that with municipality will take quite sometime because there is practically no one in municipal corporation.
We needed to register death at corporation office because we needed to release the bank accounts too to nominees. Nothing of that sort is happening. Staff is simply missing in corporation offices. People doing cremation are not waiting for paper work to be complete because there is a big queue behind them. There is a massive backlog of deaths which may or may not get reconciled. Devil knows when it will happen.
Actually to be truthful, even before pandemic, in 2017, I did last rites of my father-in-law in Punjab, in a village. The villagers helped and no one asked for any paper work. Dr. wrote death certificated about 3 days later. It took us a week to get that registered. I doubt in Pandemic it will be any faster if at all it is happening.
Well, I have linked you to studies too. That too done by institutes with "India" in title.
I don't know when and how the data will be reconciled. But the number currently coming out of government sources are massively under reported. I know for 4 of my family members, there is still no registration and we are rather well to do folks. I can only wonder what is happening elsewhere especially among urban poors of second and third tier cities.
No, I am not saying "hiding" deaths. I am not implying conspiracy. All I am saying is that the current system is missing deaths because they are not getting registered right now due to overload and staff shortage in pandemic. In municipal corporation, only a little staff is available. Ditto in private hospitals.
It may or may not get registered in future. No one is paying attention to cause of death right now on paper. May be in future someone will do a meta analysis and we will know how many causes were correct. But whatever numbers are getting reported from states, they are very likely to be currently severely underreported.
The disparity between funerals and numbers being reported are clear sign and evidence of it.
All that's done at the back end, you won't be privy to it.
That doctor knew it was Covid, so all he had to do was register it as a Covid death. He won't give you anything for it. The procedures are slightly different during such situations, but it doesn't deviate too much from the norm. You have to personally go to collect all the certificates, they won't send it to you.
Villages have a different system, I'm not privy to it. It should in fact be easier in villages as long as there's a doctor or the local leadership maintaining records.
Those studies you posted are based on lockdown situation. The studies I posted are from the post-lockdown period. There is a huge difference between the two.
Regardless, post lockdown, they accurately predicted when the cases will peak back in July.
Even now, case loads have nearly peaked. It's no longer growing as it did before. Daily deaths have already started peaking.
In Bangalore, they had predicted it to peak in the first week of May and it seems to have happened although more days need to pass in order to confirm it.
When it comes to undiagnosed Covid deaths, the situation is different and needs to be calculated over a long period of time.
India’s Covid-19 death numbers are still relatively low. But why?
The country is finally beginning to understand why.
scroll.in
You will have to approach the local corporation office on your own with the Cremation Certificate.
I don't know how it happens in south India, but here in north India (UP,MP,Bihar etc), Dr / hospital usually gives a death certificate that you need to register in municipal office. I know for sure because when we had a birth in family, just 10 months back, we had to do all the things ourselves and we got birth certificate from the municipal corporation AFTER we gave them clinic's note. It was not connected at all. And same section does registration for birth and death.
The studies failed to predict in lockdown period, why should we trust they will work in post lock down period? I can search and find you studies done in post lockdown period which again failed to predict peak correctly, all done but "Indian" institutes. You are confident of one study AFTER the fact.
You do know that for someone to say that cases have peaked, positivity rate should be in control (around 5%) with increased testing while cases plateau or go down. Otherwise we are not testing enough.
4 days back positivity rate in B'lore was 55%!
WHO says you need to keep it at 5% to know if you are doing enough testing. Basically in B;lore you were running out of tests to find more covid tests.
Bangalore covid cases: Bengaluru positivity rate hits 55%, active cases cross 3L mark | Bengaluru News - Times of India
The Covid-19 situation in the city is getting grimmer by the day. Every other Bengalurean undergoing Covid-19 test is turning positive: the city's pos
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Covid: Share of those on Oxygen support comes down - Times of India
The share of active cases on oxygen support and ICU has dropped in last one month, though the active caseload has increased exponentially during this period, indicating that the proportion of severe cases might have come down while cases remain high. Currently, 3.7% of total active cases are on...
m.timesofindia.com