Chinese Wuhan Virus Thread

randomradio said:
All that was a problem early on, when the 2nd wave just started. You automatically don't get 2 or 3 million dead just because a few thousand didn't get hospital beds in the first 2 weeks. Now the system's largely caught up, with only sporadic cases of bed or oxygen shortages.
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What is the evidence of this? I see signs to contrary in private communication, whats app family / society groups. I daily see requests and cries for oxygen and beds followed by death on whats app group of my family/friend circle, one society in which I used to live and even in my old college circle.\

How do you know that its ONLY few thousands who did not get beds?
How do you know that System's largely caught up?
How do you know that only sporadic cases of bed or oxygen shortages?

What evidence do you have to support all of the these claims? I doubt they are true.
TARGET said:
Who has money they can pay and take the vaccine nothing wrong with it ...many middle-class people can afford it and this will also help in vaccine coverage in the total population. For the below income people they will have free vaccine same as the ration card system and in 945 ..5% GST is 50 rs. people who are ready to pay 945rs won't have any issue paying extra 50 Rs.
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Not saying vaccine is wrong. Any vaccine is welcome right now but adding GST at this moment is a bit stupid and insensitive. Weird way government works in India.
 
Saaho said:
What is the evidence of this? I see signs to contrary in private communication, whats app family / society groups. I daily see requests and cries for oxygen and beds followed by death on whats app group of my family/friend circle, one society in which I used to live and even in my old college circle.\

How do you know that its ONLY few thousands who did not get beds?
How do you know that System's largely caught up?
How do you know that only sporadic cases of bed or oxygen shortages?

What evidence do you have to support all of the these claims? I doubt they are true.
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Nah, dude, screw logic.

Let's go with your story. Millions are dead. Govt is fake. And I need to prove your BS.
 
randomradio said:
Nah, dude, screw logic.

Let's go with your story. Millions are dead. Govt is fake. And I need to prove your BS.
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What logic? You merely stated that "a few thousand didn't get hospital beds in the first 2 weeks.". There is no logic etc etc behind this. This is merely an assertion. An assertion without a source. You also said this "Now the system's largely caught up". Again a stupid assertion without any source.

Dare tell me where are you getting these "facts" from?
 
ICMR limits RT-PCR tests to specific situations on May 4th
https://twitter.com/x/status/1389598943776940041

zeenews.india.com

Don't go for RT-PCR test: ICMR issues new guidelines amid second wave of COVID-19

The ICMR stated that at present, India's 2506 molecular testing laboratories are facing challenges to meet the expected testing target due to 'extraordinary case load'.
zeenews.india.com zeenews.india.com

1. RT-PCR test must not be repeated in any individual who has tested positive once either by RAT or RT-PCR.

2. No testing is required for COVID-19 recovered individuals at the time of hospital discharge in accordance with the discharge policy of MOH&FW.

3. The need for RT-PCR test in healthy individuals undertaking inter-state domestic travel may be completely removed to reduce the load on laboratories.

4. Non-essential travel and interstate travel of symptomatic individuals (COVID-19 or flu-like symptoms) should be essentially avoided to reduce the risk of infection.

etc...

Basically, it means in India we have now a situation in which we are approaching limits of how much tests can be done. It shows our medical system is having difficulty in keeping up with cases coming for diagnosis daily. @randomradio : This is what is called as logic. What you do is a dumb assertion with no reasoning.
 
Saaho said:
What logic? You merely stated that "a few thousand didn't get hospital beds in the first 2 weeks.". There is no logic etc etc behind this. This is merely an assertion. An assertion without a source. You also said this "Now the system's largely caught up". Again a stupid assertion without any source.

Dare tell me where are you getting these "facts" from?
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India's mortality rate is 1%. So for the entire adult population, about 900 million people, the total deaths will not go beyond 9 million. But you've decided to kill off 1/3rd of that number, maybe even 2/3rds, within two weeks. So yeah, screw logic. Hell, this number doesn't even consider herd immunity. Technically it should be 30% less, so you've already killed off half the potential maximum number of deaths.

Simply read the news, you will get these facts. Of course, where you're getting it from, that has a different meaning.
 
randomradio said:
India's mortality rate is 1%.
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Ugh! You got it the wrong way. Mortality rate is given by dividing those who died by those who were diagnosed with the disease. Its not the other way round! Its not that IF 100 people are infected than only 1 will die, NO MATTER WHAT. IF your health infra gets broken and overloaded, this 1% shoots up. If you are only testing severe or late cases by RT PCR (as ICMR guidelines is making it happen), more of your confirmed cases will be severe and die and your mortality rate will go up.

What you are doing is called confusing cause and effect. You are confusing mortality rate as a metric to a unchangeable fact in a country. Mortality rate CAN change, it CAN go up if the health infra gets overloaded! Its your health infra that decides mortality rate and NOT the other way round, idiot!
 
randomradio said:
the total deaths will not go beyond 9 million.
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This is only true with assumption of SAME availability of health facility (ie no overload) AND no more virulent variants. With variants replacing original strain and health infrastructure creeking under load, mortality rate will change and so will your number of deaths. Sure, I now can see why your "logic" is so much messed up.
 
Saaho said:
Ugh! You got it the wrong way. Mortality rate is given by dividing those who died by those who were diagnosed with the disease. Its not the other way round! Its not that IF 100 people are infected than only 1 will die, NO MATTER WHAT. IF your health infra gets broken and overloaded, this 1% shoots up. If you are only testing severe or late cases by RT PCR (as ICMR guidelines is making it happen), more of your confirmed cases will be severe and die and your mortality rate will go up.

What you are doing is called confusing cause and effect. You are confusing mortality rate as a metric to a unchangeable fact. Mortality rate CAN change!
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Out of 900 million people, if all get infected, then we get 9 million deaths. But we will achieve herd immunity at say 70%. Which means if our entire population is affected, then 70% get infected, then 6.3 million people will die.

If health infra fails, which has not, it's only been overwhelmed, then the deaths will shoot up, but that's not happened yet. If the disease is left as is, then the hospitalisation rate is 5% in India, the people who need oxygen, which means 31.5 million will die. This is the maximum if our health infra completely fails. So you've basically assumed our infra has completely failed, and we are already approaching this magic figure of 31.5 million.

So you decide how stupid you sound. I'm out.
 
randomradio said:
Hell, this number doesn't even consider herd immunity.
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Hell, there is no evidence of ANY herd immunity occuring naturally ( lots of people are getting re-infected) And I dont see any vaccine induced immunity arriving with a mere 3-4% full vaccination. EVEN IF you claim there is an immunity from covid AFTER infection, we don't know how long it lasts.

randomradio said:
But we will achieve herd immunity at say 70%.
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Assuming there is this mythical natural immunity even possible. In case of covid that has been shown wrong time and again. And assuming no new varitants arriving. Again seen wrong quite a few times. Ask South Africa. Ask UK.
 
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randomradio said:
If health infra fails, which has not
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Its not IF, it has.

When people are having trouble finding ( actually thats an understatement) beds, health infra has failed.
When people have to line up to fill oxygen cylinders, health infra has failed.
When hospitals are running out of oxygen, health infra has failed.

www.ndtv.com

75 Deaths At Goa's Biggest Covid Hospital Fighting Oxygen Crisis

Coronavirus, Goa Medical College and Hospital deaths: 75 patients died over four days at the state's biggest Covid facility, with Health Minister Vishwajit Rane appearing to contradict Chief Minister Pramod Sawant by admitting to an oxygen crisis
www.ndtv.com www.ndtv.com

See the above, this is as new as today.

Now tell me, does your model for mortality rate takes into account these kinds of failures too? I highly doubt it.
 
randomradio said:
then the deaths will shoot up, but that's not happened yet.
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Right... This has not happened :
www.ndtv.com

75 Deaths At Goa's Biggest Covid Hospital Fighting Oxygen Crisis

Coronavirus, Goa Medical College and Hospital deaths: 75 patients died over four days at the state's biggest Covid facility, with Health Minister Vishwajit Rane appearing to contradict Chief Minister Pramod Sawant by admitting to an oxygen crisis
www.ndtv.com www.ndtv.com

And I have a bridge to sell you.
randomradio said:
So you decide how stupid you sound. I'm out.
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I know you are absolutely clueless and idiot. I always knew. The guy who believes that Chinese engineers always tell truth cann't be really smart, anyways.
 
Saaho said:
Right... This has not happened :
www.ndtv.com

75 Deaths At Goa's Biggest Covid Hospital Fighting Oxygen Crisis

Coronavirus, Goa Medical College and Hospital deaths: 75 patients died over four days at the state's biggest Covid facility, with Health Minister Vishwajit Rane appearing to contradict Chief Minister Pramod Sawant by admitting to an oxygen crisis
www.ndtv.com www.ndtv.com

And I have a bridge to sell you.

I know you are absolutely clueless and idiot. I always knew. The guy who believes that Chinese engineers always tell truth cann't be really smart, anyways.
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75, must have brought us very close to 31.5 million.

Probably by tomorrow, there will be another hospital with 150 dead and we can say we will be around 20 million. The day after we should achieve 31 million at the very least. Followed by herd immunity in another day.

Your mind must be a very magical place.
 
randomradio said:
75, must have brought us very close to 31.5 million.

Probably by tomorrow, there will be another hospital with 150 dead and we can say we will be around 20 million. The day after we should achieve 31 million at the very least. Followed by herd immunity in another day.

Your mind must be a very magical place.
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Thats just one day and in one hospital. That too in a much richer state of Goa. Wonder what is happening else where. Especially in numerous small hospitals that are so stable of Indian cities.

BTW, the upshot is this : Does that mortality rate of yours takes into account for these kind of disruptions? I doubt it.
 
BTW, 1% fatality rate of India is hard to swallow. A comparable country like Brazil (with median age of 33, India is 28) has mortality rate of 3% or so. India's 1% fatality rate sure looks odd man out.
 
randomradio said:
Probably by tomorrow, there will be another hospital with 150 dead and we can say we will be around 20 million. The day after we should achieve 31 million at the very least. Followed by herd immunity in another day.

Your mind must be a very magical place.
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Its not just one hospital necessarily. Its one that has been reported. Not to mention in the richest state in India.

My mind is rational enough not to believe Chinese engineers on whatever they claim in their posters. I don't know about you.
 
Capture.PNG

Capture1.PNG

Norway has one half the population of Sweden. Norway implemented strict lockdown conditions as the earliest infesctions were detected. Norway has vaccinated 2/5 of its population with at least one vaccine dosage and 10 percent is full vaccinated (I for instance have had both doses of the Pfizer shot). Sweden experimented covid prevention methods, but early on was lax with testing, contact tracing and lockdown measures. Sweden has vaccinated 2/5 of its population with at least one vaccine dosage as well, but only 8 percent of its population is full vaccinated.

...

I have for the last year been assisting with national and international infectious disease prevention and mitigation operations including inoculations, education, improving access to sanitation and critical care.
 
www.google.com

1.23 Lakh Deaths In 71 Days: Gujarat Government Claims Only 4,218 Died Of COVID-19

The state issued 65,085 more death certificates during the 71-day period this year than in 2020.
www.google.com www.google.com

Gujarat population is 7 crores

So Annual Deaths will be more than 6 Lakhs per annum , 10 per 1000 is the normal death Rate all over the world

www.opindia.com

Gujarat HM Pradipsinh Jadeja refutes allegations of undercounting Covid deaths

Gujarat Home Minister Pradipsinh Jadeja has refuted allegations that the state is undercounting Covid-19 deaths. | OpIndia News
www.opindia.com www.opindia.com
 
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