We saw how in Ukraine, MKI's bomber brother(Su-34) got spanked multiple times by MANPADS when trying this low and fast technique. Rafale can fly very low and very fast, thus makes this technique far more suited to it than massive Flankers.
The Rafale and what you know about it.
- Thread starter Picdelamirand-oil
- Start date
You have a lot of misconceptions about the RBE2 XG: the end result will be a radar with a new architecture, GaN technology, a multi-channel receiver, multiple antennas (including side antennas) all around the aircraft that will be used for radar and SPECTRA and communications. But that doesn't mean that nothing will happen between now and the final result. As usual, we'll get there in steps, punctuated by the F4.1, F4.2, F4.3 and F5 standards.
For F4.1 we know that there are improvements to the radar, we don't know everything, but we do know that there are GMTI and GMTT capabilities, and radar imagery, which was already high resolution, is now ultra high resolution. The next step is to have a multi-channel receiver.
I was told why the introduction of GaN technology had been abandoned in favour of this receiver, and I was told that in fact the AESA range was satisfactory for the moment except in a very jammed environment, and that the multi-channel receiver improved this characteristic more than GaN technology.
Then we'll have GaN technology on the front antenna only, and finally all the multi-function antennas. What's more, this final result can be achieved with upgrades if we have a pre-wired aircraft like the Rafales delivered to France in 2023.
MLU is post 2045. GaN was available by then, all it means is the Hornet wasn't the first jet to get GaN.
It's all about money power.
We may only have parity, 'cause the Chinese are advancing faster than the French. And we aren't just talking about the J-20, we could see 6th gen low and high components by 2030. And we will get 200 Rafales only by 2040. We will be lucky to have just 36 more by 2030, and at least around 100 by 2035.
The Su-34 lacks sufficient defenses in some regimes. And we actually do not have enough information about it. 'Cause if Su-34s are losing and the Russians are still using it the same way, then they are obviously experiencing more successes than failures.
Both jets can fly as low and as fast as the Rafale. What's special about Rafale is the other jets need 2 pilots, Rafale doesn't.
Yes, I know what the XG entails. It's been somewhat known since the late 2000s that Rafale will get conformal arrays. We even assumed this will be part of F4 half a decade ago, a huge overestimation. But the MRFA will not see the XG at this rate.
My guess is, apart from being expensive, making it impossible for the export market, GaN was not pursued because the Russians are still behind, and there's no reason to get around to it this decade. Even if the new antenna is digital, it's still GaAs, and won't have the same fractional bandwidth as GaN. And we have to go by the logic that the Chinese are already using superior hardware with their bigger budget, a threat the French are not planning on facing anytime soon. Not to mention 6th gen.
Anyway, even if there are incremental upgrades to the Rafale, it still won't be the RBE2 XG. So, in order to keep up with other competitors, France may at best offer an RBE2 AESA with GaN, no different from what we are getting with Uttam Mk2 and Mk3 with LCA and MKI resply. Once that happens, the IAF is not gonna replace it with XG anytime soon. There will only be options for new FFBNW technologies to be added, or some upgrades during overhaul, but not a full system replacement for at least 25 years.
So let's look at how it's gonna play out. MRFA is complete, we get 114 F4s, and when the opportunity to look at F5 comes along, the Indian industry is gonna make a fuss because both TEDBF and AMCA Mk1 will be available. Frankly, at the rate it's going, AMCA Mk2 will be a reality only in 2045. But Mk1 is possible by 2035. So, to bridge the gap, there's definitely going to be a play for an Mk1A with a modified F414 with stealth augmentors and 110KN thrust. The Americans will be more than happy to oblige 'cause it means less Rafales, or at least kill the chances of F5 entering India, even if some more F4s are bought.
An alternative is block purchases of 38 each every 5 years so at least the last block is F5, but 2035+ still makes it difficult.
So F3R/F4 induction, F6/F7 MLUs.
Our Photonics airborne radar research is in full swing. By the time Rafale gets RBE-XG our AMCA MK2 maybe also be ready for Photonics based FCR!
It's still too far away for us to guess what Mk2 will carry. It's just disappointing that F5 is no longer realistic for the IAF.
I would like to point out that all these Indian plans on the comet are on the part of manufacturers who still do not have an operational system to propose and that even if Dassault announces fairly long lead times for its systems, this does not prevent it from being the first to arrive with a fully developed system. The best example of this is the competition with the Typhoon for the deployment of an AESA.
I am unable to understand it what do you mean by comet? Do you mean Uttam on Hawker 800/Virupsksha flying test bed? FYI, Uttam already completed 210 hours on Tejas LSP2 & LPS3 by 2021. And it’s most likely, it be touching 500 hours on Tejas.
Our GaN EW pod is almost ready along with Tejas MK1A. Later batches will have Uttam AESA radar that is supposed to be better than EL/M-2052.
We have caught up in many areas, and now we are in the process of operationalization of these technologies. So even if we are behind the F5, we will have caught up with the F4 long before 2035.
What mattered was for the F5 to be 10-15 years ahead of Indian R&D. But if the difference is just a few years, it ends up being counterproductive for France.
We had that 10-15 years difference with Rafale F3+ compared to what the LCA Mk1 and MKI were. But 10-15 years after 2012, the Rafale has more or less stayed the same, and that has allowed India to catch up. And when you consider that India had absolutely nothing 5 years ago, but have everything necessary today, what do you think India will have 5 or 10 years from now? Otoh, Rafale is planning on being more or less the same for the next 10 years, with just minor incremental technologies planned, so the road ahead is already known. 2035 is too much.
It doesn't change the fact that we still need 6 squadrons of proven capability like the Rafale. But with every passing year, the opportunity to go beyond that is diminishing. A Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence has recommended going for a next gen aircraft if MRFA fails to take off in time, and that was last year.
“The government should consider buying state-of-the-art fifth-generation fighter aircraft over the counter without losing time to keep the force in a comfortable position,” the committee said.
The govt is now officially speaking of an option I had brought up years ago.
The issue with F4 is while it will be good until 2040, beyond that it will get pushed down to second rung since we are now competing with a superpower. The F5 would have given us a 20+ year advantage instead, especially 200 of them. So, instead of being the lynchpin of the IAF until the MKI's replacement comes along in 2050, it will just become another jet that needs to be upgraded to remain relevant.
When MMRCA1 was announced in 2003 the Rafale F3 was not even concpetualized. Now in 2024 we are disappointed that F5 will not be available for IAF in future. Bloody hell, conclude MMRCA first before dreaming for a jet on drawing board.
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Stop this nonesense like "in 2040 F4 will be second class aircraft ". You are still flying Mig21,Jaguar, Mirage in the year 2024. Your spearhead is still the SU30 MKI fron 2003 technology.
MMRCA began after F3 was introduced in service.
Now, if we begin MRFA, it's after F4 has been introduced.
India would sign MoU to get F4R before the end of next term. That's it.
Maybe if French JV chosen for engines ,
Orders will be increased .
I think we are yet to sign for 26 Rafale M yet.
Which will happen after elections .
Maybe if French JV chosen for engines ,
Orders will be increased .
I think we are yet to sign for 26 Rafale M yet.
Which will happen after elections .
Naturally, it will be 15 years old by then, that's the natural end of a configuration that was more or less derived from one developed in 2012.
For the French it's fine, basic capabilities in the early 2000s were upgraded in 2012 and then now in 2023. The next upgrade is meant for 2035. And their main enemy is still developing. But India is not in the same boat. We have an enemy that's advancing really fast. We have multiple aircraft programs, and many of our programs will bear fruit within the next 7 years.
To us, the Rafale is supposed to be the tip of the spear, not a stopgap. It's supposed to have technologies we do not have at all. But at the rate it's going, the only advantage the Rafale will have is maturity, which is the primary purpose of stopgap. If by 2035 we end up relying on the Indian industry for technology, then it will definitely make the Rafale second-rung by 2040 'cause Indian jets will end up carrying more advanced technologies by then, perhaps the Indian equivalent of the RBE2 XG. At that point, we will have to start talking about MLU'ing the first 36 Rafales in order to keep up, something like Rafale F5.5 or F6.
As for the other examples you gave, that's merely the product of our wealth. We will have enough wealth by 2030, never mind 2040.
The only way out of this quagmire is to junk MRFA, go for 38 Rafale F4s over the next 2-3 years followed by 76 F5s by 2033, before the Indian industry hijacks the program. That will give the IAF 150 Rafales, the same as what's been planned for AMCA.
Production can start with some 64 F4s combined with the navy, and a second order for 14 naval jets will push the next production tranche to 90 jets. That's 190 jets in total.
You may laugh or what but we've caught up in avionics to the world leaders is not a fallacy. How many countries have GaN AESA radars and GaN EW pods operational? Just within two years from now MKI shall have both. A plane of MKI's size carrying ~2000 TRM GaN AESA radar has numerous possibilities. Let IAF test GaN AESA equipped MKI against GaAs AESA equipped Rafale F3/4 in the coming few years and then you'll know.
LRDE is working on GaN based multichannel and UBW TSA, I think since 2017. And that go inside MKI UPG.
They are also trying to make MMIC, and I expect it be ready by AMCA. This level of R&D is only happening in US and Israel. People get shell shocked, that how quickly we catched up in airbourne radars , but that is all thanks to Netra Mk1.
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