Taiwan Gives Up On F-35, Turns to F-16V Option - Their M-2000s are up for sale

[Amarante]

Taiwan has 'absolute air superiority' over China: Deputy defense chief - Focus Taiwan

Taiwan has "absolute air superiority" over China in its own airspace, Taiwan's deputy defense chief said Monday amid concern over whether Taipei could defend itself against a military incursion by Beijing.

focustaiwan.tw

 

[randomradio]

Taiwan has 'absolute air superiority' over China: Deputy defense chief - Focus Taiwan

Taiwan has "absolute air superiority" over China in its own airspace, Taiwan's deputy defense chief said Monday amid concern over whether Taipei could defend itself against a military incursion by Beijing.

focustaiwan.tw

It's possible for the first day or two, but after that it's unlikely. PLAAF significantly outnumbers ROCAF, and the distance between the two countries is too small, making long range MLRS with Fire Dragon 480 a big problem for air defenses.

 

[Innominate]

It's possible for the first day or two, but after that it's unlikely. PLAAF significantly outnumbers ROCAF, and the distance between the two countries is too small, making long range MLRS with Fire Dragon 480 a big problem for air defenses.

PLAAF has a huge problem themselves and that is all their airbases they will use to attack Taiwan is well within range of their cruise missiles and unlike Ukraine Taiwan won't need Brits or French. Chicom naval ships will also have to stay out of line of sight of Taiwan or Taiwan's land base antiship missiles, which also come in supersonic, will devastate the chicom fleet. Taiwan coast is very high giving horizon look advantaged.

Their Hsiung Feng III is a beast and it's carried by all their naval ships including their small modern corvettes.

 

[randomradio]

PLAAF has a huge problem themselves and that is all their airbases they will use to attack Taiwan is well within range of their cruise missiles and unlike Ukraine Taiwan won't need Brits or French. Chicom naval ships will also have to stay out of line of sight of Taiwan or Taiwan's land base antiship missiles, which also come in supersonic, will devastate the chicom fleet. Taiwan coast is very high giving horizon look advantaged.

Their Hsiung Feng III is a beast and it's carried by all their naval ships including their small modern corvettes.

View attachment 32374

View attachment 32375

The Chinese have defenses against the HF-III. But the main issue is numbers. Too bad the air-launched version is still in development. They have a lot of short-range missiles, but the impact will be quite limited outside of the ETC.

Chinese presence on the mainland is in such great numbers that even the combined might of the US, Japan and Taiwan are not enough if you're thinking of using only missiles. Recall that the USAF believes both NGAD and B-21 are necessary to merely ensure parity with the PLAAF. And the Chinese have more missiles than anybody else. Hell, their missile unit is so big, it's a separate service wing.

Ukraine claims Russia's fired 8000 missiles at them. The Chinese have way more than that.

 

[jetray]

PLAAF has a huge problem themselves and that is all their airbases they will use to attack Taiwan is well within range of their cruise missiles and unlike Ukraine Taiwan won't need Brits or French. Chicom naval ships will also have to stay out of line of sight of Taiwan or Taiwan's land base antiship missiles, which also come in supersonic, will devastate the chicom fleet. Taiwan coast is very high giving horizon look advantaged.

Their Hsiung Feng III is a beast and it's carried by all their naval ships including their small modern corvettes.

View attachment 32374

View attachment 32375

Assumption : Taiwanese are idiots they will retaliate against china strongly instead of having talks.
Very less chances of a long military fight as both of them will be in a lose lose situation.
Unless US finds a usefull idiot like zelensky taiwan will go the hong kong way sooner or later, its fait accompli.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Assumption : Taiwanese are idiots they will retaliate against china strongly instead of having talks.
Very less chances of a long military fight as both of them will be in a lose lose situation.
Unless US finds a usefull idiot like zelensky taiwan will go the hong kong way sooner or later, its fait accompli.

Taiwan is an existential issue/threat for Communist Party of China. War is inevitable!

Not a matter of if but when.......

 

[Ginvincible]

Taiwan is an existential issue/threat for Communist Party of China. War is inevitable!

Not a matter of if but when.......

I don't know if war is necessarily inevitable but it is increasingly likely. I definitely don't see a future where Taiwan comes out without being bombed to a large extent. Either through Chinese conquest or the US destroying strategic assets in the event of Taiwanese peaceful acquiesce to China.

 

[Innominate]

The Chinese have defenses against the HF-III. But the main issue is numbers. Too bad the air-launched version is still in development. They have a lot of short-range missiles, but the impact will be quite limited outside of the ETC.

Hmm. Russia said they had defenses for incoming HiMARS and cruise missiles too yet that is not the case. Also a no navy nation has sunk/destroyed more naval ships since WW2. Taiwan's quantity of cruise missiles is classified but they do have a sht load in range of airbases and naval ports that will be used to attack Taiwan.

Chinese presence on the mainland is in such great numbers that even the combined might of the US, Japan and Taiwan are not enough if you're thinking of using only missiles.

Who cares about great numbers when you can't swim across the strait. Chicoms are going to mass attack and fighter aircraft in at least 7-10 airbases all in range of Taiwan cruise missiles. It's going to be carnage at those airbases.

Recall that the USAF believes both NGAD and B-21 are necessary to merely ensure parity with the PLAAF. And the Chinese have more missiles than anybody else. Hell, their missile unit is so big, it's a separate service wing.

Lol. US MIC always needs advanced weapon systems to take on potential enemies so much so US generals will testify to congress how dire their situation is.... and they are being "truthful."

Ukraine claims Russia's fired 8000 missiles at them. The Chinese have way more than that.

Lol. Taiwan is not Ukraine Taiwan can actually defend itself. Chicom military is just like the Russian military before the war... great on paper, parades and military exercises but then they had to fight.

 

[Bon Plan]

Ukraine claims Russia's fired 8000 missiles at them.

But they are not defeated. At least yet.

 

[A Person]

Taiwan is an existential issue/threat for Communist Party of China.

How so?

Just by showing that Chinese people can live and prosper under a different political system than a corrupt totalitarian dictatorship? Perhaps, but the Communist Party of China has a very, very efficient censorship system, and they're very experienced at hiding from their people what they don't want them to see.

I'd argue that the only real existential threat to the Communist Party of China is the Communist Party of China. Or rather, the way they mismanage their country. China is a hellhole of pollution and tofu dregs, hidden behind a thin veneer of fancy modernity. The Chinese people themselves react by generalized indifference, resulting in phenomenons like the "lie flat" or "let it rot" movements -- if we can call nihilistic apathy a movement.

 

[randomradio]

Hmm. Russia said they had defenses for incoming HiMARS and cruise missiles too yet that is not the case. Also a no navy nation has sunk/destroyed more naval ships since WW2. Taiwan's quantity of cruise missiles is classified but they do have a sht load in range of airbases and naval ports that will be used to attack Taiwan.

HiMARS is no longer a factor in the war, Russian defenses have succeeded against it. And sinking Russia's crappy navy is no big deal, they are still stuck with Cold War era junk. The Russians started their modernization process only a few years ago with the Gorshkov class frigates. China's a different cup of tea.

Who cares about great numbers when you can't swim across the strait. Chicoms are going to mass attack and fighter aircraft in at least 7-10 airbases all in range of Taiwan cruise missiles. It's going to be carnage at those airbases.

I'm not sure how effective missiles are going to be. An Indian Air Marshal once pointed out that in order to effectively close one air base for 24 hours, the enemy needs 300 missiles. So 7-10 bases would need 2100-3000 missiles per day. But we know the Chinese have more than 7-10, and their bases are bigger. And this does not constitute all the other high priority targets that will actually get hit, like command and logistics nodes, assembly areas and ports.

Lol. US MIC always needs advanced weapon systems to take on potential enemies so much so US generals will testify to congress how dire their situation is.... and they are being "truthful."

You are basically calling your own military liars. So, no, that's not how it works. They have always provided an accurate assessment of what they need. They don't lack integrity. What you are confused about is what they say in the media for domestic consumption, where they stretch the truth in their favor for the "'Merica No. 1!!!" narrative. The generals lie to the people, not to the Congress.

Lol. Taiwan is not Ukraine Taiwan can actually defend itself. Chicom military is just like the Russian military before the war... great on paper, parades and military exercises but then they had to fight.

That supports my argument. That China will attack with the appropriate amount of resources.

Other than that, the modern US Army is untested in a near-peer/peer war too. Recruitment is in poor shape, so the draft will have to be brought back. And have you even considered the Chinese will tie the US up in the Middle East and even SoKo before they invade Taiwan?

 

[randomradio]

But they are not defeated. At least yet.

The Russians are fighting at a ridiculously slow pace. I guess instead of finishing off the UAF, they would prefer Trump putting a stop to the war next year. In the meantime, they would try taking back as much land as possible.

 

[randomradio]

How so?

Just by showing that Chinese people can live and prosper under a different political system than a corrupt totalitarian dictatorship? Perhaps, but the Communist Party of China has a very, very efficient censorship system, and they're very experienced at hiding from their people what they don't want them to see.

I'd argue that the only real existential threat to the Communist Party of China is the Communist Party of China. Or rather, the way they mismanage their country. China is a hellhole of pollution and tofu dregs, hidden behind a thin veneer of fancy modernity. The Chinese people themselves react by generalized indifference, resulting in phenomenons like the "lie flat" or "let it rot" movements -- if we can call nihilistic apathy a movement.

The people to people contact between Taiwan and China is very strong, it surpasses the govt's ability to censor. The only way is to isolate themselves, which is not possible.

Anyway, Taiwan's possession is critical for the PLAN to maneuver, or they will forever remain boxed in. Taiwan will give PLAN almost unhindered access to the Pacific.

 

[Hari Sud]

There is too much “Made in China” propaganda on this thread. Each of the post person thinks that Chinese missiles and aircraft would conquer Taiwan in matter of hours. But this has not happened. First, Chinese know that their military hardware is mostly copy or reverse engineered hence may work or may not work. Wherever it has been exported, it has resulted in bad name for the supplier, although cheap. ….Second, the economic impact of fire fight over Taiwan will jeopardize if not all but big portion of trade on which China depends. This loss may be as big as a trillion dollar loss. That much losses China is not prepared to suffer……. Hence Chinese favourite game and that is intimidate but don’t get into war.

Hence, all you guys, do not fall into the Chinese trap of lies and propaganda. They are first rate liars in statistics and telling the real thing.

 

[Rajput Lion]

There is too much “Made in China” propaganda on this thread. Each of the post person thinks that Chinese missiles and aircraft would conquer Taiwan in matter of hours. But this has not happened. First, Chinese know that their military hardware is mostly copy or reverse engineered hence may work or may not work. Wherever it has been exported, it has resulted in bad name for the supplier, although cheap. ….Second, the economic impact of fire fight over Taiwan will jeopardize if not all but big portion of trade on which China depends. This loss may be as big as a trillion dollar loss. That much losses China is not prepared to suffer……. Hence Chinese favourite game and that is intimidate but don’t get into war.

Hence, all you guys, do not fall into the Chinese trap of lies and propaganda. They are first rate liars in statistics and telling the real thing.

It's never advised to underestimate your enemy. Better to overestimate them and prepare accordingly to be positively surprised in the war than otherwise.

 

[jetray]

There is too much “Made in China” propaganda on this thread. Each of the post person thinks that Chinese missiles and aircraft would conquer Taiwan in matter of hours. But this has not happened. First, Chinese know that their military hardware is mostly copy or reverse engineered hence may work or may not work. Wherever it has been exported, it has resulted in bad name for the supplier, although cheap. ….Second, the economic impact of fire fight over Taiwan will jeopardize if not all but big portion of trade on which China depends. This loss may be as big as a trillion dollar loss. That much losses China is not prepared to suffer……. Hence Chinese favourite game and that is intimidate but don’t get into war.

Hence, all you guys, do not fall into the Chinese trap of lies and propaganda. They are first rate liars in statistics and telling the real thing.

what they dont have in quality they will make up in quantity. As you have correctly said chinese are more concerned at economic impact than military loss. We can say the same thing about the wonder weapons of the west which have been relegated to just another weapon system after initial hype. If there is a war & long war of attrition chinese will certainly prevail, taking over taiwan is not a big deal for them rt now.

 

[jetray]

The Russians are fighting at a ridiculously slow pace. I guess instead of finishing off the UAF, they would prefer Trump putting a stop to the war next year. In the meantime, they would try taking back as much land as possible.

They are looking not just for land but also for regime change. Taking over land and fending off guerilla attacks will stretch them thin. Instead they can install a puppet govt and then it can take all the brunt of attacks, while they constantly undermine the ukraine state.

 

[Innominate]

What's so funny jetray? Please articulate if you can.

 

[Bon Plan]

The Russians are fighting at a ridiculously slow pace. I guess instead of finishing off the UAF, they would prefer Trump putting a stop to the war next year. In the meantime, they would try taking back as much land as possible.

Indeed.
I'm quite sure that there would have been no war under a Trump administration.

 

[Bon Plan]

Taiwan's possession is critical for the PLAN to maneuver, or they will forever remain boxed in. Taiwan will give PLAN almost unhindered access to the Pacific.

And this is why USA will remains behind Taiwan. My bet is that we will see a short and fierce aerobattle in the next 10 years, probably before, between China and Taiwan + USA (+ Japan ?).