I will not put down my money on it sir, it seems like Asians and Africans have infinite tolerance to poverty, wont be surprised if Pakistanis can remain like this for the eternity.
That creates opportunities for others too, that tendency to exist in poverty.
I have mentioned it earlier. We mobilized in bits and pieces to validate our so called 'Cold Start' in 2015 too, but did not execute. The reason was that Mr. Obama still had a soft spot for Pakistan (read Pakistan was still very important for US and India was still not willing to 'embrace' US) and the diplomatic backing was still not there.
The equation today is much more different, a Mr. Trump clearly not amused by Pakistani antics is in power and he is willing. Also, Mr. Modi has taken definitive steps to address own security with respect to an assertive China by collaborating with like minded countries. Note the Chabahar exemption in the scheme of things as a small example. Similarly, if you were to read the situation in isolation as mentioned above, you would be quite right. But rarely is life so simple. The situation has to be read with the overall political situation prevailing within the region.
Iran-GCC games will continue. Reiterating the point I have been making of members actually pushing forward the Pakistani line of 'Indian support to Baluchi rebels' by claiming Indian support where nothing of significance exists; India does not play any significant part in any unrest in Baluchistan. On the other hand, there is a lot of undercurrent of a stronger variety that exists in terms of the games being played by regional and extra-regional countries who are Pakistan's other neighbour and those who have been bailing it out.
It is this particular game between Iran-GCC that has the potential to pump in tremendous amounts of money as each side tries to use the average Pakistanis. Imagine the amount of cannon fodder one can have if there exists an oversupply of people willing to earn money to feed the proverbial 'empty stomach' by fighting ideological enemies!
Yeah thats why I was saying they wont be completely paralyzed, they will sell off their land like they did in POK to China for some gain, sell Gwadar or lease it out for long or may even create multiple Chinatowns (some already exists) and provide autonomy to them. Plenty of option to utilize the real estate they are sitting on and Baloch are not very motivated or trained to run over PA, their immediate requirement is food which is surplus in Punjab so they are ready to be slave of anyone who can feed them.
Bold: situation can drastically change. You are talking about a population that is already alienated but can not do much as there is hardly any external support to their cause. If the above were to happen, how long do you think, will it take for things to change?
Are we going to keep the pressure for 2-3 years? It will take a toll on us too and after a few months, the results will start coming in requiring recalibration of approach and move towards "peace", the first sign of it will be weekly hotline contact established and working again to implement ceasefire agreement. This long duration military strategy will have plenty of vulnerabilities to fail.
We can keep up the pressure for years, we c an maintain the tempo of operations at the present rate forever; we are hardly spending any amount right now. You are forgetting the monetary and the
Opportunity Costs, I think.. The latter is quite debilitating for the Pakistanis here.
If we are going to screw them economically we must do it by tightening trade routes, declaring them terrorist state allowing us for mandatory inspection of ships and delaying to hurt the trade, sanctioning companies working with them but nothing of that sort is even under discussion inside GoI. Half-hearted attempts may not help us in achieving the objective.
Or you can apply financial pressure on them, whereby they keep returning to IMF and the like minded countries, who are keen that Pakistan dismantles the terror infrastructure in their country, can keep imposing costs and conditions. Works either ways. In the latter, it is more comprehensive. Oh, that brings me to a side note.
Random Thoughts On Terror
Historically, terror has been an established instrument of state policy. One could call it an insurrection or a rebellion for the protagonists, but the means, that is violence, remain the same. The nature of violence has not changed.
What has changed are the rules under which the Nation States have acted throughout history along with a dynamism in the objectives of their enemies. The metamorphosis of 'conflict' has been steady, commensurate with the change in the prevalent environment. Two and a half centuries back, when nation states were at a disagreement, the same was settled with mass mobilization of forces, acting alone to militarily overcome the weaker nation and impose it's will. The role of diplomacy and economic strangulation was still there, but was subordinate to employment of forces. If a smaller nation offended a bigger one (not necessarily in terms of geographical sizes) conflict was straightforward, the bigger nation would send troops and/or ships and the matter would be settled. With 'Revolution in Military Affairs' and advent of modern weaponry, no longer can a nation afford such punitive expeditions without significant, and at times debilitating, costs to its own society, that has evolved to a point where 'lives matter' has become the thrust in the discourse.
No more could a regiment settle matters like the British did in Bombay, and moving whole armies is no longer a simple thing. Knowing this, the smaller country can inflict wounds on the lager country safely and what better way than to sponsor others to do it 'deniably', and therefore, force the larger country to 'move' in the 'desired direction'. With minimal expenditure of resources, such a 'conflict' (Low Intensity Conflict, LIC) can be executed over years, safely.
What has become new, then, is not the violence, but the safety of the nation that either executes or sponsors such conflicts (LIC) - it is virtually guaranteed as new international norms force the nation to calibrate its response and formulate its strategy to deal with violence against its self by means other than war. So, terror essentially evolved into a form of war that did not affect any diplomatic relation between the two states.
The dilemma that the affected State finds itself in is very unique.
The terrorists use a nation's system against the nation. They use the very characteristics of the society that make the society as it is, as a weapon against the society. And the dilemma is very real and confounding. If you treat them as politically motivated, you end up giving them a political legitimacy (as happened in J&K) and honour that they do not deserve to have. If you treat them as soldiers of an enemy nation, you give them legitimacy of a fighting force and in the process violate your own laws. And if you try to leave them as Terrorists, they remain stateless and are claimed as 'non-state actors'. All the time, the terrorists use the rules and regulations of the society, the power of "Habeas corpus", to get away with increasingly dastardly act of violence, as no terrorists proclaims the intent or stays to fight when engaged. Perhaps, one can argue, the only weakness a terrorist has, is the premise of his/her action - that the society he/she is acting against is unjust, without being able to provide a viable and comprehensive insight into an alternative that he/she offers. So long as the people in the society felt otherwise, it is the terrorist who is isolated. The paradox comes to fore - the very democratic process of India which allows them to operate is also their worst enemy. Therefore, in a democratic state, the aim of the terrorist is to eliminate the democratic process and cause suspension of "Habeas corpus", in the process, converting justice into injustice at the hands of the very society itself, thereby arousing passions within the society that align slowly with the aims of the terrorists. (hence, the need to quickly convert a counter insurgency/terror operation from military to political arena to reach a resolution)
Until and unless that safety of the sponsor state is not affected in a significant manner, the killings will never stop. The concept of terrorism has simple elegance to it. Terrorists could fight a war and be protected by the democratic processes of the enemy. If these processes were obviated, the terrorists would win, being able to align the society to their cause, thereby getting both political and moral ascendancy. But if these processes were neither obviated nor suspended, it is also very difficult for them to lose.
Therefore, the only strategy that works is International Cooperation. The Terrorists have to be cut off from their base. Removal of their support base - be it financial, resource or political, renders them to a group that is little more than a group of organized crime. So the strategy has to be two fold:
1. Isolate them from their base. To isolate them, the sponsor nation has to be given 'incentives' - can be positive or negative reinforcements. But this is the most important step, one that needs groups of nations to work together cohesively, especially those who proclaim to value and cherish democracy.
2. Eliminate the terrorists by judicious use of extra-judicial processes. A risky strategy which requires a strict oversight and moral uprightness by the executing authority to check for misuse of the power. But the due processes that are extended to the citizens, need to be denied to the terrorists and their supporter, which checking for any collateral damage. It has been wisely said, kill a guilty, one may feel aggrieved, kill an innocent, hundreds will be outraged.
Sorry for a tangential rant, but I hope members may be able to appreciate what is being done right now.