Status
Not open for further replies.

Jaymax

Well-Known member
Apr 1, 2019
683
651
3rd Rock from the Sun
Another sad part of the coin is which hardly anyone talks is, that Pak took delivery of additional 3 AEW&C on 6th April.
http://defenseblog-njs.blogspot.com/2019/04/pakistan-air-force-takes-delivery-of-3.html
Taking there total number to 6 Erieye and 4 ZDK-3, of which 5 Erieye are operational, after 2 were repaired recently. Or in Short they have 9 eyes in the sky birds.
What the effect of prolonged faceoff be, is anyone guess in 24x7, this hole, which our political masters have dug us into, needs to be plugged & plugged soon.
Their planes are smaller have lesser endurance. They need more of them to keep up the coverage.

The Phalcon is a more potent platform with 360 degree coverage. The giant IL-76 allows extended endurance. They are different platforms, with different thought processes behind their purchase. The bulk of our Airborne Radars will have to be indigenous though.
 

LoneWolfSandeep

Well-Known member
Dec 25, 2017
523
464
India
Their planes are smaller have lesser endurance. They need more of them to keep up the coverage.
The Phalcon is a more potent platform with 360 degree coverage. The giant IL-76 allows extended endurance. They are different platforms, with different thought processes behind their purchase. The bulk of our Airborne Radars will have to be indigenous though.
Pls I hate it when people try to brush weakness under the table, something Pakistan does regularly by making lame excuses. Lets not indulge in same
Maintenance is based on hrs in service & so is parts life calculated in hrs. By having a bigger plane doesn't change basic physics. If after sustained operations 2 planes are out of service for each, then we fall from 4 to just 2. While they (hate to admit) will fall from 9 to 7 for 24x7 operations.
Besides it means there air staff operating these machines will be less over worked, in quicker rotation.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Paro

LoneWolfSandeep

Well-Known member
Dec 25, 2017
523
464
India
I too heard such whispers at 1:30am in night, I though I hear what's it about in morning, better sleep.. But surprisingly haven't heard anything yet. I am with you on this one @RATHORE, what did happen, or routine CAP

Or was it just Pak shivering with arrival of dreaded 15th April - that it got paranoia stuck, I have a feeling it was indeed Pak fear speaking, the kind, where someone jump at its own shadow.
I don't know why this post of BabaJi, its time of post & message speaks to me in mysterious ways or atleast someone responds to my wondering prayers with answers.
 
Last edited:

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Dec 4, 2017
11,747
7,343
Mumbai
Looks like because ISI has penetrated into Indian media, Indian politicia and other insititutions now Modi will be assisted by FSB of Russia to prevent the political sabotage of current elections by the Pakistanis. Because now Pakistan seem to have began manipulate our electoral and political system. This is nothing but a part of ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan.
I marvel at your sources & insights, Sir. Were you in R&AW or any of our intelligence services, by any chance ? Such analysis is impossible for a lay person. I understand if you choose to be reticent , though.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Shekhar Singh

screambowl

Senior member
Dec 19, 2017
2,285
1,054
switzerland
I marvel at your sources & insights, Sir. Were you in R&AW or any of our intelligence services, by any chance ? Such analysis is impossible for a lay person. I understand if you choose to be reticent , though.
No sir, hope that was not a sarcasm, I have nothing to do with govt but three things which you can notice yourself which happened recently.

1. Pakistan suddenly making statements related to Indian elections openly. Their intentions are clear. They would try to manipulate Indian elections.
2. Modi being honored in Russia with the highest civilian award
3. Leftists suddenly going low profile on Modi .

Message has been given to the intellectuals and very bad days are coming for all those who sabotage Indian interest from within India especially foreign policy of India , defence deals and line of action with respect to US Russia China and Pakistan.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: _Anonymous_

Shajida Khan

Senior member
Dec 27, 2017
1,524
1,579
Seattle
@RATHORE

The air force remains weapons free with even the transport aircrafts being on ORPs. The availability of the aircrafts is surprisingly high. Meanwhile, if you have noticed, F-16s sortie rates have begun to fall. I wonder why!

Also, one needs to search for news from the Western Half of their country. Not all is quiet on the western front. The economics come into play over prolonged deployment. And we have yet to move infantry component of our I Strike Corps. It is only the armoured and mechanized which has moved yet. The infantry shall be moving soon, for their annual training. Imagine what a hammering their economy is taking.

One can only do so much militarily. Once economic aspects start biting, things change drastically. Meanwhile, Indian economy is still chugging along ... and should stay the course in all probability as RaGa may not be coming in.

People are scared of not voting - the fear of RaGa coming in by default is so high.

Overheard in a Service Officer's Mess:

"I am going to apply for 1 day casual leave on 25th to go and vote. Main kya muh dikhaunga agar RaGa aa gaya aur mujhe usey saulte marna padega!!!!"

This is the refrain common now ...
Problem with RaGa is not that of corruption merely. It is that of EXTREME incapability coupled with EXTREME corruption.

My only worry is that of Indian masses. They are poor and short sighted. Its very hard to sleep without food. Even empty promises can be extremely enticing. There is a reason why Congress ruled over us for so many decades.

(OFF topic @nair sir, I leave it up to your better judgement to let this post be here or move elsewhere or delete it )
 
Last edited:

Shajida Khan

Senior member
Dec 27, 2017
1,524
1,579
Seattle
Looks like because ISI has penetrated into Indian media, Indian politicia and other insititutions now Modi will be assisted by FSB of Russia to prevent the political sabotage of current elections by the Pakistanis. Because now Pakistan seem to have began manipulate our electoral and political system. This is nothing but a part of ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan.
I doubt Pakistan is even remotely capable of doing anything like this. Manipulating indian political situation is an exercise of scale. A massive scale. It is not in capacity of even US let alone Pakistan. India is a massive and diverse behemoth and even now likes of Amazon, Uber find it too difficult to motivate Indians at scale on matters of money and consumption, let alone a pathetic small fry like Pakistan trying to change our political outcomes.

Remember folks, our country is more like EU and less like China. Good luck manipulating EU as a whole. It is a question of scale and complication of diversity.

I foresee a very different game from Pakistan. It is that of finding new assets inside India via more visits of Indians to Pakistan. They are enticing people of very specific backgrounds to Pakistan. Sikhs and Hindus via religious tourism. You will find weeks long festivals with marks been enticed by specific propaganda, honey trap incase of government workers etc and money. Ofcourse Muslims will be targeted in Business As Usual manner. This may be their new modus-operandi. Not the scale of politics but specific targets capable of causing specific damage or giving specific control over specific information. Things like troop movements. Things like motivating Sikhs for organising specific protest at a specific time. Possible attacked by compromised police or LE people to cause havoc. Politics? nope.

Also folks, remember, these operations take very very long time to prepare. The current escalation is too short of a time for Pakistan to do anything. It cann't be done on demand.
 
Last edited:

CountryFirst

Banned
Dec 11, 2017
578
176
Bharat
I doubt Pakistan is even remotely capable of doing anything like this. Manipulating indian political situation is an exercise of scale. A massive scale. It is not in capacity of even US let alone Pakistan. India is a massive and diverse behemoth and even now likes of Amazon, Uber find it too difficult to motivate Indians at scale on matters of money and consumption, let alone a pathetic small fry like Pakistan trying to change our political outcomes.

Remember folks, our country is more like EU and less like China. Good luck manipulating EU as a whole. It is a question of scale and complication of diversity.

I foresee a very different game from Pakistan. It is that of finding new assets inside India via more visits of Indians to Pakistan. They are enticing people of very specific backgrounds to Pakistan. Sikhs and Hindus via religious tourism. You will find weeks long festivals with marks been enticed by specific propaganda, honey trap incase of government workers etc and money. Ofcourse Muslims will be targeted in Business As Usual manner. This may be their new modus-operandi. Not the scale of politics but specific targets capable of causing specific damage or giving specific control over specific information. Things like troop movements. Things like motivating Sikhs for organising specific protest at a specific time. Possible attacked by compromised police or LE people to cause havoc. Politics? nope.

Also folks, remember, these operations take very very long time to prepare. The current escalation is too short of a time for Pakistan to do anything. It cann't be done on demand.
The whole rise of right wing in EU was caused by manipulation by Russia and US to prevent a EU superpower from rising. Russia because they wanted to bring EU out of US control, US because they wanted to prevent EU from being stronger than them. The manipulation was done by bombing the middle east (I'm not saying they bombed middle east with sole this purpose, there are multiple interest always) and directing the refugees to EU which results in rise of Ultra-Right Wing Factions which calls for dismantling the EU and more soverignity for state.

Anything can be accomplished. It just takes time and planning.
 

Falcon

The Falcon
Professional
Nov 30, 2017
1,737
5,292
I will not put down my money on it sir, it seems like Asians and Africans have infinite tolerance to poverty, wont be surprised if Pakistanis can remain like this for the eternity.
That creates opportunities for others too, that tendency to exist in poverty.

I have mentioned it earlier. We mobilized in bits and pieces to validate our so called 'Cold Start' in 2015 too, but did not execute. The reason was that Mr. Obama still had a soft spot for Pakistan (read Pakistan was still very important for US and India was still not willing to 'embrace' US) and the diplomatic backing was still not there.

The equation today is much more different, a Mr. Trump clearly not amused by Pakistani antics is in power and he is willing. Also, Mr. Modi has taken definitive steps to address own security with respect to an assertive China by collaborating with like minded countries. Note the Chabahar exemption in the scheme of things as a small example. Similarly, if you were to read the situation in isolation as mentioned above, you would be quite right. But rarely is life so simple. The situation has to be read with the overall political situation prevailing within the region.

Iran-GCC games will continue. Reiterating the point I have been making of members actually pushing forward the Pakistani line of 'Indian support to Baluchi rebels' by claiming Indian support where nothing of significance exists; India does not play any significant part in any unrest in Baluchistan. On the other hand, there is a lot of undercurrent of a stronger variety that exists in terms of the games being played by regional and extra-regional countries who are Pakistan's other neighbour and those who have been bailing it out.

It is this particular game between Iran-GCC that has the potential to pump in tremendous amounts of money as each side tries to use the average Pakistanis. Imagine the amount of cannon fodder one can have if there exists an oversupply of people willing to earn money to feed the proverbial 'empty stomach' by fighting ideological enemies!


Yeah thats why I was saying they wont be completely paralyzed, they will sell off their land like they did in POK to China for some gain, sell Gwadar or lease it out for long or may even create multiple Chinatowns (some already exists) and provide autonomy to them. Plenty of option to utilize the real estate they are sitting on and Baloch are not very motivated or trained to run over PA, their immediate requirement is food which is surplus in Punjab so they are ready to be slave of anyone who can feed them.
Bold: situation can drastically change. You are talking about a population that is already alienated but can not do much as there is hardly any external support to their cause. If the above were to happen, how long do you think, will it take for things to change?


Are we going to keep the pressure for 2-3 years? It will take a toll on us too and after a few months, the results will start coming in requiring recalibration of approach and move towards "peace", the first sign of it will be weekly hotline contact established and working again to implement ceasefire agreement. This long duration military strategy will have plenty of vulnerabilities to fail.
We can keep up the pressure for years, we c an maintain the tempo of operations at the present rate forever; we are hardly spending any amount right now. You are forgetting the monetary and the Opportunity Costs, I think.. The latter is quite debilitating for the Pakistanis here.

If we are going to screw them economically we must do it by tightening trade routes, declaring them terrorist state allowing us for mandatory inspection of ships and delaying to hurt the trade, sanctioning companies working with them but nothing of that sort is even under discussion inside GoI. Half-hearted attempts may not help us in achieving the objective.
Or you can apply financial pressure on them, whereby they keep returning to IMF and the like minded countries, who are keen that Pakistan dismantles the terror infrastructure in their country, can keep imposing costs and conditions. Works either ways. In the latter, it is more comprehensive. Oh, that brings me to a side note.


Random Thoughts On Terror

Historically, terror has been an established instrument of state policy. One could call it an insurrection or a rebellion for the protagonists, but the means, that is violence, remain the same. The nature of violence has not changed.

What has changed are the rules under which the Nation States have acted throughout history along with a dynamism in the objectives of their enemies. The metamorphosis of 'conflict' has been steady, commensurate with the change in the prevalent environment. Two and a half centuries back, when nation states were at a disagreement, the same was settled with mass mobilization of forces, acting alone to militarily overcome the weaker nation and impose it's will. The role of diplomacy and economic strangulation was still there, but was subordinate to employment of forces. If a smaller nation offended a bigger one (not necessarily in terms of geographical sizes) conflict was straightforward, the bigger nation would send troops and/or ships and the matter would be settled. With 'Revolution in Military Affairs' and advent of modern weaponry, no longer can a nation afford such punitive expeditions without significant, and at times debilitating, costs to its own society, that has evolved to a point where 'lives matter' has become the thrust in the discourse.

No more could a regiment settle matters like the British did in Bombay, and moving whole armies is no longer a simple thing. Knowing this, the smaller country can inflict wounds on the lager country safely and what better way than to sponsor others to do it 'deniably', and therefore, force the larger country to 'move' in the 'desired direction'. With minimal expenditure of resources, such a 'conflict' (Low Intensity Conflict, LIC) can be executed over years, safely.

What has become new, then, is not the violence, but the safety of the nation that either executes or sponsors such conflicts (LIC) - it is virtually guaranteed as new international norms force the nation to calibrate its response and formulate its strategy to deal with violence against its self by means other than war. So, terror essentially evolved into a form of war that did not affect any diplomatic relation between the two states.

The dilemma that the affected State finds itself in is very unique. The terrorists use a nation's system against the nation. They use the very characteristics of the society that make the society as it is, as a weapon against the society. And the dilemma is very real and confounding. If you treat them as politically motivated, you end up giving them a political legitimacy (as happened in J&K) and honour that they do not deserve to have. If you treat them as soldiers of an enemy nation, you give them legitimacy of a fighting force and in the process violate your own laws. And if you try to leave them as Terrorists, they remain stateless and are claimed as 'non-state actors'. All the time, the terrorists use the rules and regulations of the society, the power of "Habeas corpus", to get away with increasingly dastardly act of violence, as no terrorists proclaims the intent or stays to fight when engaged. Perhaps, one can argue, the only weakness a terrorist has, is the premise of his/her action - that the society he/she is acting against is unjust, without being able to provide a viable and comprehensive insight into an alternative that he/she offers. So long as the people in the society felt otherwise, it is the terrorist who is isolated. The paradox comes to fore - the very democratic process of India which allows them to operate is also their worst enemy. Therefore, in a democratic state, the aim of the terrorist is to eliminate the democratic process and cause suspension of "Habeas corpus", in the process, converting justice into injustice at the hands of the very society itself, thereby arousing passions within the society that align slowly with the aims of the terrorists. (hence, the need to quickly convert a counter insurgency/terror operation from military to political arena to reach a resolution)

Until and unless that safety of the sponsor state is not affected in a significant manner, the killings will never stop. The concept of terrorism has simple elegance to it. Terrorists could fight a war and be protected by the democratic processes of the enemy. If these processes were obviated, the terrorists would win, being able to align the society to their cause, thereby getting both political and moral ascendancy. But if these processes were neither obviated nor suspended, it is also very difficult for them to lose.

Therefore, the only strategy that works is International Cooperation. The Terrorists have to be cut off from their base. Removal of their support base - be it financial, resource or political, renders them to a group that is little more than a group of organized crime. So the strategy has to be two fold:

1. Isolate them from their base. To isolate them, the sponsor nation has to be given 'incentives' - can be positive or negative reinforcements. But this is the most important step, one that needs groups of nations to work together cohesively, especially those who proclaim to value and cherish democracy.

2. Eliminate the terrorists by judicious use of extra-judicial processes. A risky strategy which requires a strict oversight and moral uprightness by the executing authority to check for misuse of the power. But the due processes that are extended to the citizens, need to be denied to the terrorists and their supporter, which checking for any collateral damage. It has been wisely said, kill a guilty, one may feel aggrieved, kill an innocent, hundreds will be outraged.

Sorry for a tangential rant, but I hope members may be able to appreciate what is being done right now.
 
Last edited:

Falcon

The Falcon
Professional
Nov 30, 2017
1,737
5,292
I don't remember reading that on this forum. Probably neighbour forum.

Phalcons and MKIs have been networked using Israeli made datalinks long ago though.

I tagged you because I remember someone saying that there was an issue. And you were around ... ah .. forget it. I had checked then, seen now ;)
 

screambowl

Senior member
Dec 19, 2017
2,285
1,054
switzerland
doubt Pakistan is even remotely capable of doing anything like this. Manipulating indian political situation is an exercise of scale. A massive scale. It is not in capacity of even US let alone Pakistan. India is a massive and diverse behemoth and even now likes of Amazon, Uber find it too difficult to motivate Indians at scale on matters of money and consumption, let alone a pathetic small fry like Pakistan trying to change our political outcomes.

The National Development Front has 19 Supreme Council members. Among them is Prof P. Koya who was also one of the founding members of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI).

In 2012, the NDF conducted different movements, demonstrations, rallies and other democratic strikes to protest against police brutality and government abuse,[17] claim more working rights in government employment,[18], implement reservation and allowances for the backward communities (OBC) to bring them up to the level of mainstream society, and overall enforce the rights of OBC minorities by forcing the government and its agencies to help the downtrodden in Indian society.

Ms Neera Rawat IPS, Senior Superintendent of Police, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, was deposed before the Marad Judicial Inquiry Commission of Justice Thomas P. Joseph. Her tenure as Kozhikode City Police Commissioner was from 22 March 1997 to 16 May 1999. She told the Inquiry Commission that the police had prepared confidential and authentic reports that ISI and Iran were fund sponsors of the NDF.[27]

Pakistan MP Mohammed Thaha Mohammed's visit to Thalassery on 29 April 2007 sparked a controversy, with activists of the BJP and other Sangh Parivar groups staging a march to the hotel where Mohammed was staying. They claimed that leaders of a few Muslim organisations, including the NDF, were seen visiting the MP. Mohammed Thaha Mohammed represents Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal in Pakistan's parliament.[31]

Also folks, remember, these operations take very very long time to prepare. The current escalation is too short of a time for Pakistan to do anything. It cann't be done on demand.
Ma'am They are doing since ages and not from yesterday. The Political turmoil in Kashmir is sponsored by Pakistan only.
 
Last edited:

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Dec 4, 2017
11,747
7,343
Mumbai
Bold: situation can drastically change. You are talking about a population that is already alienated but can not do much as there is hardly any external support to their cause. If the above were to happen, how long do you think, will it take for things to change?
I think we overestimate the Baloch crisis. What are we looking at here? A mere population of 5-6 million ethnic Baloch ( in Pakistan) spread over a geographically wide area rich in mineral resources , thoroughly alienated but who also inhabit the countries ( Afghanistan & Iran) who seem to be extending support to their cause in the hopes of tying Pakistan down.

Are we to assume, the Iranians would support the Balochis to the point of self determination when they have a similarly disaffected population too.

Add to this the fact that large nos of Punjabi Muslims & ethnic Pashtuns ( especially from Afghanistan after the civil war broke out there in mid 70's) have been calling this province home since decades now.

It's only India and external powers in whose interests an independent Balochistan lies. I doubt whether they have the wherewithal to achieve their aims otherwise.

Once the eastern borders becomes relatively tranquil, the PA will resume its activities there & unleash hell in Balochistan. And the LIC there will continue simmering as it has been since the nation of Pakistan was formed.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.