That would include almost all of your posts.
India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
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Its not a question of capability. Its more a question of geography... Look at your map, the satellite view you will know why.
Also are we sure the penetrator ingressed through the roof rather than the sides of building (that are cordoned off from view on ground)?
It is just really weird to me that Pakistan has not made a propaganda bonanza from the get go (with near full transparency and allowing journos to tour the building etc), if indeed nothing hit the buildings itself.
A lot of things don't add up comparing these pics and reaction of Pakistani Army, they won't be taking any suicidal rate on next morning if they were not hurt that badly.
@Shajida Khan All the pics in the download package are dated to 27th Feb (post strike). Is there a release by the same people of images of this detail from pre-strike?
Then we can compare pixel jumps etc (for roof reflectivity+patterning etc)....though to be honest it seems of limited utility given even this resolution does not really capture enough for me on the roof (if interior patching did occur). Like you can get surprisingly pretty flush fit with corrugated iron + duct tape since the waveridges are standard etc.
Then we can compare pixel jumps etc (for roof reflectivity+patterning etc)....though to be honest it seems of limited utility given even this resolution does not really capture enough for me on the roof (if interior patching did occur). Like you can get surprisingly pretty flush fit with corrugated iron + duct tape since the waveridges are standard etc.
It will be useless to compare it by pixel jump. Simple reason : Shadows.
That said, we have a reference image from 25th April 2018 on Google Earth. Its from the same satellite. At almost similar off-nadir angle.
Ok can you post that again here for me (the best possible version for comparison) dear. Thanks.
India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
There you go...
To be honest, I think we are trying to grasp at the straws here...
Ooh I HAVE to watch this!But what I said is more realistic than your story.
Your story has already been turned into a Hollywood blockbuster.
True Lies - Wikipedia
Aziz reveals he has smuggled stolen MIRV nuclear warheads into the country via antique statues shipped by Juno, and threatens to detonate them in major U.S. cities unless the U.S. military leaves the Persian Gulf.
India already knows the name and faces of Pak officers, and vice versa.
BTW on a serious note, "The Sum of All Fears" is a great movie to watch. Its a story on how US/Russia could come very close to a nuclear exchange. The interesting stuff is launch preparation and authorization procedures.
That is exactly what I've been saying. In fact, these were my comments on PDF on the day of the strike:
The only thing we know with absolute certainty is that 4x bombs detonated 100-200m south-west of the alleged target on February 26th, forming 4x craters. At least one of the craters had SPICE-2000 debris.
*major facepalm*
Are you familiar with the concept of confirmation bias?
I was referring to a massive CF strike, including nuclear and conventional weapons.
I respect your opinion.
Pakistan now has 4 plutonium reactors at Khushab, try reading articles on them by Jeffery Lewis or Hans M. Kristensen. There's a reason why the west has been raising hue and cry about Pakistan having one of the fastest growing nuclear arsenals in the world, although I'm not proud of it. We need to slow down, as handling issues rise with the numbers. Pakistan is now probably close to 200 devices.
Regarding missiles, Pakistan's missile program can be divided into three phases:
Phase-I:
The initial experimental phase in the 1980s, when Pakistan tried to establish a line of solid-fueled rockets, but was met with many failures ultimately abandoning these projects. The systems that were developed include:
1. Hatf-I TBM
2. Hatf-II TBM
Phase-II:
Established on existing systems from diverse backgrounds, with quite a bit of indigenous efforts.
1. Ghaznavi TBM (licensed DF-11)
2. Shaheen-I SRBM (improved DF-11A)
3. Ghauri MRBM (licensed Nodong)
4. Shaheen-II MRBM (based on technologies from Shaheen-I, with Chinese inputs)
5. Babur-I GLCM (reverse-engineered Tomahawk)
6. Raad-I ALCM (based on Babur-I)
Phase-III:
Upgraded systems from Phase-II, utilizing local R&D. These will form the front-line of Pakistan's nuclear delivery options in the future. Key thing to note is that Pakistan is streamlining its systems with respect to warheads (no. 2-7 have similar warhead dimensions), avionics and propulsion.
1. Nasr TBM
2. Shaheen-IA SRBM (improved Shaheen-I [better fuel, advanced avionics, miniaturized warhead])
3. Shaheen-III MRBM (improved Shaheen-II [better fuel, advanced avionics, miniaturized warhead])
4. Ababeel MRBM (MIRVed Shaheen-III [additional stage, MIRV bus, large payload fairing])
5. Babur-II GLCM (improved Babur-I [more fuel, advanced avionics])
6. Babur-III SLCM (submarine launched variant of Babur-II)
7. Raad-II ALCM (improved Raad-I [more fuel, advanced avionics])
I know, Kidwai's talk (in 2001 I believe) is the only available source of information for Pakistan's nuclear posture. However the reason I stressed "official", is precisely that the Pakistani government does not acknowledges these 4 red lines in an official capacity. Besides, with Nasr and some 'other' developments, and the official declaration of moving from "Minimum Credible Deterrence" to "Full Spectrum Deterrence", it should be clear that Kidwai's mentioned red lines have been redrawn.
I absolutely agree, that deterrence must be credible for it to work, that is why you see Pakistani developments as mentioned above. You should not compare Pakistan to NK, the latter has a dozen warheads at best, liquid-fueled ICBMs requiring long preparation times, imperfect RV design (still no working RV at ICBM speeds). Similarly Pakistan isn't as irrational as NK, the former's only intended and declared adversary is India (reference: precisely 2750km declared range of Shaheen-III).
As far as India's CF temptations are concerned, the way I see it, the moment India starts exploring 'other' options...is the moment Pakistan's deterrence begins to weaken. Its not that India has a fair chance of succeeding even if everything hypothetically works out, its that Pakistan is beginning to fail to convince India to not even think about it (as was the case so far. Referring to CF posturing here, not Balakot).
You should try looking up how deliverable device designs work. Pakistan has 4x plutonium reactors, large-scale uranium enrichment facilities and an agency dedicated to developing and designing nuclear weapons (PAEC). If Pakistan didn't improve the CHIC-4 design (~1300kg device), what exactly is in Pakistan's ballistic missiles? All of them have payload capability of less than 1000kg. The SRBMs have much lower, less than 500kg. The cruise missiles have even lower, between 200-300kg.
Unless you believe that everything Pakistan claims is a giant bluff, I'd recommend you to do more reading on the topic. Once a nation gets a steady supply of fissile material, developing and scaling warheads is not really hard.
Ah well, the blame game is a long one. In Pakistan's defense, PA & ISI did help the Afghans A LOT against the Soviets. Pakistan gave a home to 4 million Afghan refugees, and about 1.5 million still live in Pakistan. So should PA & ISI not have kept tabs on the assets they trained? I don't have the answer to that.
Regarding TTP, it was alleged during the tension period between US & Pakistan over drone strikes, that US deliberately let Baitullah Mehsud get away on more than one occasions, and made a point of doing so. It was only after the two countries came to an unacknowledged agreement that a CIA drone strike took him out.
I guess we'll have to see how the situation evolves.
Oh I'm not going to dispute anything. Here you go:
Did Pak army admit 200 killed in Balakot? Indian media runs video without verification - Alt News
Did PA bury the bodies at Jaba Top? Did they burn them in a smokeless fire? Did they transfer them to KPK hospitcals? Or all of the above?
I guess as the elections get closer, the desperation levels will keep getting higher.
First of all I'm relieved that someone acturally tried to build a convincing case for the Balakot strike. So far we've heard many absurd explanations that seem to defy the science of how explosives work. I'll now go through this analysis to offer my rebuttal and point out the inconsistencies in this article. To be clear, I do have respect for professionals irrespective of which side of the border or part of the world they come from. But they're as human as any of us are. In my life I have come across professionals, particularly from the armed forces (on both sides of the border), who upheld varying degrees of professionalism. So when I question their claims and confront them with facts, its nothing personal, rather only my tendency to not accept something that doesn't adds up. It is important to realize that this article is the author's version of how things PROBABLY played out, and involves a lot of conjecture. Questions challenging the established narrative should not be disregarded without irrefutable evidence.“HELL FOR LEATHER”
Sameer Joshi
Mar 12
ANALYSING THE TACTICAL & TECHNICAL EFFICACY OF THE INDIAN AIR FORCE’s USE OF SPICE 2000 BOMBS TO TARGET PAKISTAN BASED JAISH_E_MOHAMMAD’s (JeM) TERROR CAMP AT JABA HILL TOP, BALAKOT ON 26 FEB 2019
By Sameer Joshi
Dead Seeds
Lamb Of God — Wrath
And you may tremble before hell’s gates
You may watch as the heavens fall
And you may cite the hands of fate
You may heed the siren’s call.
Here's where the whole hole theory (no pun intended) began: Twitter user @rajfortseven, the retd. Col. Vinayak Bhatt of the IA. He posts his personal IMINT analysis, which has not been always correct (if anybody is interested, I can refer them to some tweets and why he was wrong there). The resolution of the PlanetLabs imagery is about 72 cm, and as the author rightly points out, we see SMUDGES. If anbody would care to look at the historical Google Earth imagery of the structure, they would realize that similar smudges have been on the roof of the structure in the past as well, in different locations. The most likely explanation for the smudges is the different nature of the CGI sheets used on the roof, probably due to repairs over the years. They might as well be tree branches broken off by high winds.Latest OSINT data reveals that while the targeted structure is still standing, dark smudges or holes are visible on the rooftop, suggesting that SPICE bombs may have penetrated inside the building and gone deep inside the earth, before destroying all in a confined explosion.
We now have 50 cm resolution satellite imagery from European Space Imaging, showing no signs of damage, captured on February 27th, 5 days before the date of the PlanetLabs imagery which was captured on March 4th. This imagery shows no visible holes or damage to the structure's roof. In all probability, Col. Bhat erred in his analysis and the low resolution combined with dark smudges gave him this idea. It is important to realize that the holes theory is the foundation of the entire argument.
Besides, Col. Bhatt concluded that SPICE-250s, not SPICE-2000s, were used in the strike. So which version is true?
Images - India, Pakistan Airstrike | European Space Imaging
There are two problems with the penetrator theory:
1. There is no indication of presence of any penetrator like that in IAF's service.
2. The said target did not require the use of a penetrator warhead. A "floor counting" fuse attached to a general purpose bomb would've achieved the required results. It is very hard to believe that a civilian structure at Balakot was in fact a bunker (built probably in the late 90s), the kind only found in military bases for the high command, considering that the location is neither an active war zone nor a military base.
There is no credible, irrefutable evidence of any kind of human loss in the attack. So, far, all claims have been conjecture (questionable audio and video clips, report of one odd journalist). There is no need to elaborate more on that.
Precisely! And to add to that, the hole theory proposes 4x holes and hence 4x SPICE-2000 SOWs, i.e. 280-320 kg of combined total TNT inside the hypothetical bombs. This is NOT an insignificant amount.
It is true that penetrator munitions work on this principle of combining estimated delay figures with smart features like microphones to detect number of penetrated floors. However, a SPICE-2000 kit (or any PGM kit) is DECOUPLED with the 2000lbs munition, as far as fuzing is concerned. The fuze of a penetrator munition is built into the casing, so that it can also survive the penetration shocks alongwith the explosive. This rules out the possibility that SPICE-2000 itself packs the sensors and fuzing mechanism for detonation.
What is also interesting to note is that many other structures also survived the 2005 earthquake. Were they all hardened bunkers as well, built for JeM's leadership?
This is a VERY MISLEADING comparison, specially because the entire henceforth article is based on the premise that the hypothetical 'penetrator bomb' (a 2000lbs munition used with the SPICE-2000 kit) had the characteristics of BLU-116. The BLU-116 Advanced Unitary Penetrator has 109 kg of explosive filling, SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the figure used in the later calculations (80 kg).
Regardless, is the author implying that US or Israel sold such a penetrator munition to IAF? When did this happen?
If not, did DRDO develop such a munition for IAF? When did this happen?
I commend the author for the analysis involving the actual mathematics, specially overpressure. But it seems that it has been written with the intent to justify IAF's claim, by hook or by crook. Misleading assumptions have been made, and clever 'rounding off' has been done to prove the point.As per information, the BLU 116 can penetrate 3.4 meters of reinforced steel (or 15 meters of earth) using a nickel cobalt steel alloy core. The Spice 2000 penetrator bomb has similar capabilities. Assuming that the SPICE 2000 hit the target at a near nadir point, it would have easily sliced through the thin metal/ light concrete roof and at least one semi concrete floor to hit the base floor with a decent foundation in the ground, which is largely made up of Bafliaz volcanic rock in the Balakot region. For the sake of calculating the impact force on a bunker class target, we will assume the SPICE 2000 is able to penetrate at least 3 meters of 500 PSI reinforced concrete ( a figure which is certainly less than the actual) and 10m of earth. We reverse calculate the average impact force on a reinforced concrete target as follows –
Average impact force = mgh ÷d
m — Weight of the penetrator (907 kg)
g — Acceleration due to gravity (9.81 m/s)
h — AGL height where the bomb transitioned from glide mode to vertical drop trajectory ( a minimal 500 meters estimated for the Balakot attack)
d — Depth of penetration
Therefore, Average impact force of SPICE 2000 on reinforced concrete is 1474 kN and on earth is 442 kN. It is noteworthy that the more a bomb penetrates into the ground, the lesser will be its average impact force. The Bafliaz volcanic rock at Balakot is composed of at least three quarters of alkaline basalt, which has a density of 2.8 g/cm cube. The approximate density value for 500 PSI reinforced concrete is 2.9 g/ cm cube, which is close to basalt. Taking the margins in error and chemistry of basalt, it can safely be assumed that after penetrating the roof and another fpossible loor, the impact value would have increased from the 442 kN on the roof and the first level to (taking an approx. 15 percent jump within margin of error) to 508 kN. However with the penetrator intact and no major loss in momentum, the same 15 % error margin can be applied to the 1474 kN standard 500 PSI reinforced concrete penetration figure, this time reducing the average impact force to 1253 kN, giving us a penetration distance of 3.5 meters in the Bafliaz rock geology at Jaba top.
The smart fuze of the SPICE 2000 would have been set to explode after penetrating two layers as per the intelligence available before the strike. After digging deep 3.5 meters below the big hall, it would have triggered the explosion of 80 kilograms of TNT, with the Gurney equation estimating shrapnel release at nearly 1 km/ sec for an explosive equivalent of the TNT. At the same time, the expansion of the intensely hot gases at extremely high pressures in the fireball would have caused a shock wave to form, moving upward out of the dug in silo at nearly the same velocity out to an effective range of 14 meters. The main characteristic of this wave is that the pressure rises very sharply at the moving front, and falls off toward the interior region of the explosion. The variation of the pressure with distance from the centre of the fireball, at a given instant, is ideal for (instantaneously rising) shock front, which will eliminate any soft target in the region and cause significant damage to the structure and depending on the distance, will cause the structure to collapse.
Now let’s calculate the overpressure caused by the explosion of the 80 kg warhead — Overpressure in an enclosed space is determined using Weibull’s formula -
Overpressure Δp=2410(m/V) to the power 0.72
where: 2410 is a constant based on 1 bar (100 kPa; 15 psi)
M = Net explosive mass calculated using all explosive materials and their relative effectiveness
V = Volume of given area (primarily used to determine volume within an enclosed space).
We have two zones to measure the overpressure, the first inside the 3.5 m silo created by the SPICE 2000 penetrator. This gives us a value of approx. 12631 kPA for the overpressure wave within the dug up silo. This overpressure wave would have resonated through the rocky side, ejecting upward at a high velocity towards the two floors of the hall. Post expansion in the hall, the shrapnel and the overpressure wave would have killed all soft tissue targets on both the floors and penetrated the walls and roofs with deadly effect.
But was that enough to collapse the building? As per experimental data, a minimal overpressure of around 14 kPA is required to cause the collapse of a non-concrete structure. Since the volume of the building was very large with two floors inside the building, the overpressure blast wave from the 80 TNT kg warhead, had it exploded at the base of the building (not accounting for the penetration to 3.5 meters), would be in the tune of 19.28 kPA. This overpressure would have probablybrought down the building to implode and collapse. However, the explosion of the warhead 3.5 meters below the surface, with the rocky sides, walls bearing partial explosion and blast overpressure effects; will significantly dropped the overpressure value inside the compartmentalised hall. What would also be noteworthy is that the foundation and support beams would have been dug in the solid basalt rock, hence will require a significantly greater charge at core locations, than the low mass 80 kg TNT as part of this version of the SPICE 2000.
Though not basing assumptions on an empirical relationship and keeping well within the error margin, it can safely be assumed that the value of the blast overpressure wave would have fallen below 14 kPA, which — while causing extensive kinetic energy based shrapnel and overpressure pressure damage to the roof and the sides, would not have been sufficient to break open or collapse the side wall with intermixed concrete, and the main roof of the building. Also the fact that all the bombs wouldn’t have struck the target at the same time, compartmentalised damage would have occurred in the individual bomb’s sphere of influence.
Yes, there would have been significant casualties within this hall. The analysis for same is out of the purview for us.
Besides there are still some questions remaining to be addressed here. IAF claims that only 20% of the weapons missed their targets. Considering that 4x of them hit 100-200m off target, where did the rest of the 16x weapons hit?
I will conclude by stating the only possible explanation that would have made more sense. Most probably, the IAF struck the target 100-200m away with 4x SPICE-2000 SOWs (with general purpose munitions), INTENTIONALLY, to send a message to Pakistan. GoI (BJP) probably had already decided (in consent with the IAF & IA) to politicize the strike, regardless of any real damage. As it can be seen so far, the strike achieved its results at home for the GoI. Until the elections are over, explanations and theories will keep coming on Indian TV channels to justify the validity of GoI's claims. As long as the strike remains controversial, it will work out in GoI's favor.
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Uhhhh...
Few things :
1. The dark marks can be many things. Mainly they are shadows or artifacts : imperfections of processing image.
2. The current image is of 50 cm resolution. The source is WV-02 satellite with MAX resolution as 50 cm. The EFFECTIVE resolution also depends upon off-nadir angle of the satellite, ie how high the sat is. That said, this reso is most likely enough, unless IAF is so (un)lucky that they made a very precise hole which lets only the warhead through. Diameter of a Mk 84 bomb is 45 cm and thats the biggest bomb used in SPICE-2000 kit. That said, it would be hard to make that precise hole so, a 50 CM reso image SHOULD be fine. If IAF comes with a even better reso image showing the precise hole, then all bets are off but other than that, I highly doubt that they hit the main building.
In the Chinese block on Masood Azhar, there is more than what meets the eye - Oneindia News
Officials explain to OneIndia that it is not just bi-lateral. China has called Pakistan an all weather friend, while Azhar the man himself has called China the almighty. Apart from these aspects and the fact that Azhar guards China's assets in Pakistan it is also to ensure that India does not become supreme in the region.
China would not like India having its say in the UN. China has also been instrumental in blocking India's NSG bid several times. It is a case of being supreme and throwing its clout around says an informed officer in New Delhi. The officer says that although all nations say it openly that the war against terror is important, the fact of the matter is that all are divided in their approach. There are different equations at play.
The stakes in Afghanistan are very high. Russian President Vladimir Putin in fact changed the country's long standing policy against the US in Afghanistan. US was able to take over Afghanistan after Putin allowed the US set up base in Central Asia. China too has a major stake in Afghanistan and the recent statement by the Taliban in which it said it would not target infrastructure projects in Afghanistan is also significant. China has high stakes in Afghanistan and would not want that to be disturbed.
Any move in the UN on Azhar is likely to change China's equation with the Taliban which is considered to be close to the Jaish-e-Mohammad boss. More control in the UN for India would also tilt the balance against China. Officials explain that the reason for the block goes beyond the all-weather friend or Azhar playing bouncer for Chinese investments in Pakistan. It is all about supremacy in the region, the officer also explains.
Officials explain to OneIndia that it is not just bi-lateral. China has called Pakistan an all weather friend, while Azhar the man himself has called China the almighty. Apart from these aspects and the fact that Azhar guards China's assets in Pakistan it is also to ensure that India does not become supreme in the region.
China would not like India having its say in the UN. China has also been instrumental in blocking India's NSG bid several times. It is a case of being supreme and throwing its clout around says an informed officer in New Delhi. The officer says that although all nations say it openly that the war against terror is important, the fact of the matter is that all are divided in their approach. There are different equations at play.
The stakes in Afghanistan are very high. Russian President Vladimir Putin in fact changed the country's long standing policy against the US in Afghanistan. US was able to take over Afghanistan after Putin allowed the US set up base in Central Asia. China too has a major stake in Afghanistan and the recent statement by the Taliban in which it said it would not target infrastructure projects in Afghanistan is also significant. China has high stakes in Afghanistan and would not want that to be disturbed.
Any move in the UN on Azhar is likely to change China's equation with the Taliban which is considered to be close to the Jaish-e-Mohammad boss. More control in the UN for India would also tilt the balance against China. Officials explain that the reason for the block goes beyond the all-weather friend or Azhar playing bouncer for Chinese investments in Pakistan. It is all about supremacy in the region, the officer also explains.
Actually, I am working on it. Now that I have the complete picture of the region I can apply my own algorithms on it. To begin with a simple edge detector to find crater like formations.
I am at my workplace... Will get home in about an hour and then work on it..
1. Exactly my point, there can be many explanations for the smudges.
2. Thank you, I'll correct the post. I didn't carefully read the specs of the specific satellite, went along with claimed best resolution. I agree, its almost impossible that a hole being punched in a roof by a 1000kg bomb was perfectly clean and invisible in 50cm satellite imagery. The roof wasn't made of butter after all.
That would be nice, looking forward to it.
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