Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions

A Person said:
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You obviously have no idea how much you export to us. Some EU countries are in for one hell of a shock after a hard Brexit takes place. It's always been, 'effects on Britain', 'effects on Britain', and you think there'll be no impact on the EU countries LOL.
 
A Person said:
Good thing we got these free trade deals with Canada and Japan, they'll be able to absorb all the stuff Britain won't buy anymore.
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Yes. I'm sure transporting goods 4,000-10,000 miles and trying to get past non-tariff barriers will be cheaper than sending them across the channel to the UK.:ROFLMAO: Even before you add Suez Canal fees...:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: and accidental collisions with Chinese freighters in the South China Sea.:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: And neither of those deals covers services either.

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The transportation alone will cost more than WTO tariffs and transportation costs to the UK combined. I hear they've found life on Mars, maybe you could do a trade deal with them too. Transportation will only cost about £10trillion per trip.

Why not just admit you're going to have problems rather than sleepwalking into this thing.
 
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BMD said:
Why not just admit you're going to have problems rather than sleepwalking into this thing.
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It's really funny to hear that from the British side.

Though I guess what Britain is doing isn't so much sleepwalking as sleeppunching-oneself-in-the-face-repeatedly.
 
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A Person said:
It's really funny to hear that from the British side.

Though I guess what Britain is doing isn't so much sleepwalking as sleeppunching-oneself-in-the-face-repeatedly.
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Nope, we've thought about it thoroughly and debated it at length for many years, whereas you're sleepwalking into the unknown.
 
This is interesting:

With Michel Barnier, Is The E.U. Telling Britain To Get Lost?

According to The Telegraph, some diplomats claim that Barnier blames Britain for losing his job in 2005 as France's Foreign Minister after the failure in France of a referendum over changes to the European Constitution. France had agreed to the referendum after Britain's then-prime minister, Tony Blair, had promised to call for one in his country but then never did.
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Does that even make sense to anyone? He blames the UK for French voters voting down the EU constitution. The guy is an unhinged lunatic with a persecution complex and no concept of causality.
 
A Person said:
Good thing we got these free trade deals with Canada and Japan, they'll be able to absorb all the stuff Britain won't buy anymore.
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BMD said:
Nope, we've thought about it thoroughly and debated it at length for many years, whereas you're sleepwalking into the unknown.
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Both EU and Britain will be badly affected by Brexit. It's just that the EU is capable of cutting its losses. If a no deal Brexit happens, then there will be job losses on both sides. Regardless of the outcome, Britain will be worse off than the EU obviously.
 
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randomradio said:
Both EU and Britain will be badly affected by Brexit. It's just that the EU is capable of cutting its losses. If a no deal Brexit happens, then there will be job losses on both sides. Regardless of the outcome, Britain will be worse off than the EU obviously.
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Nope, because we stand to gain more jobs than we lose because of the trade balance, we're also getting to keep our EU fees and tariffing their imports for yet more money. They also have to replace our funding. I think initially Britain might dip lower than the EU, especially if it goes to no deal and exit in March 2019, but later the UK will rise for all the aforementioned reasons, whereas the EU will not. In almost every export area, they have a trade surplus. Private companies have CEOs who are accountable to shareholders, they will not tolerate losses regardless of politics, and jobs will move and equally domestic producers can steal their domestic market share in the UK.

We will suffer a transitional upset, they will suffer a permanent loss. People say that the UK GDP will fall 2-10% or whatever. The EU GDP will fall nearly 20% the second we leave even before the actual consequences on trade kick in. That's not a projection either, it's a cast iron hard fact that will impact their borrowing and interest payments. Then exporters will feel the sting of tariffs and NTBs on £400-500bn-worth of exports, or about 4% of remaining GDP, with Germany being the worst affected. Then their fishing industry will be impacted by the loss of 80+% of the annual fish take in our waters. Then trade connections with RoI will feel the impact of having to be routed around the UK. The the affect on the debt market will strike. Despite the fact that Britain is not in the Euro, it still bankrolls that currency through subscription fees every year
Brexit could bury EU in mountain of debt

It's roughly akin to India suddenly losing Punjab, Haryana, Mahydra Pradesh and Kerala, or whatever constitutes it's richest provinces comprising near 20% of its overall GDP. It's debatable whether the economic affect would be worse on those leaving provinces or what remains.
 
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BMD said:
Nope, because we stand to gain more jobs than we lose because of the trade balance, we're also getting to keep our EU fees and tariffing their imports for yet more money. They also have to replace our funding. I think initially Britain might dip lower than the EU, especially if it goes to no deal and exit in March 2019, but later the UK will rise for all the aforementioned reasons, whereas the EU will not. In almost every export area, they have a trade surplus. Private companies have CEOs who are accountable to shareholders, they will not tolerate losses regardless of politics, and jobs will move and equally domestic producers can steal their domestic market share in the UK.

We will suffer a transitional upset, they will suffer a permanent loss. People say that the UK GDP will fall 2-10% or whatever. The EU GDP will fall nearly 20% the second we leave even before the actual consequences on trade kick in. That's not a projection either, it's a cast iron hard fact that will impact their borrowing and interest payments. Then exporters will feel the sting of tariffs and NTBs on £400-500bn-worth of exports, or about 4% of remaining GDP, with Germany being the worst affected. Then their fishing industry will be impacted by the loss of 80+% of the annual fish take in our waters. Then trade connections with RoI will feel the impact of having to be routed around the UK. The the affect on the debt market will strike. Despite the fact that Britain is not in the Euro, it still bankrolls that currency through subscription fees every year
Brexit could bury EU in mountain of debt

It's roughly akin to India suddenly losing Punjab, Haryana, Mahydra Pradesh and Kerala, or whatever constitutes it's richest provinces comprising near 20% of its overall GDP. It's debatable whether the economic affect would be worse on those leaving provinces or what remains.
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You are making wrong comparisons. It's not like an arm or leg falling off. GDP drops when there is a negative change in lifestyle. Basically, a recession. The EU won't be losing 20% of its GDP even if it seems that way. It's like saying the UK will lose 80% of its GDP after Brexit. Makes no sense. UK, France, Germany etc will continue posting the same GDP figures in their respective currencies, minus the problems with trade. The EU's per capita PPP is not going to change drastically after Brexit. Both currencies will weaken anyway.

The biggest effect post-Brexit will be trade in goods and services. And only a small amount of the EU's industry is exposed to the UK, while the majority of the British industry is exposed to the EU.
 
A Person said:
It's really funny to hear that from the British side.

Though I guess what Britain is doing isn't so much sleepwalking as sleeppunching-oneself-in-the-face-repeatedly.
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Export jobs losses < Import loss job gains
+
Saved money
+
Tariffs

Very simple equation. People rave on about the loss of services, but even there there is a large percentage of what's going out coming back in, which will be immediately replaced by domestic service providers post Brexit.

And even if we become a complete basket case, we can always rejoin as a net beneficiary of the EU budget, just like all the other basket cases.
 
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randomradio said:
You are making wrong comparisons. It's not like an arm or leg falling off. GDP drops when there is a negative change in lifestyle. Basically, a recession. The EU won't be losing 20% of its GDP even if it seems that way. It's like saying the UK will lose 80% of its GDP after Brexit. Makes no sense. UK, France, Germany etc will continue posting the same GDP figures in their respective currencies, minus the problems with trade. The EU's per capita PPP is not going to change drastically after Brexit. Both currencies will weaken anyway.

The biggest effect post-Brexit will be trade in goods and services. And only a small amount of the EU's industry is exposed to the UK, while the majority of the British industry is exposed to the EU.
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Yes, it will. Think about the EU borrowing money and their ability to make interest payments and the subsequent risk factor. They have several basket cases economies and they just lost 20% of their GDP and near 25% of their net budget funding.

Your statement makes no sense, the UK was part of the EU, not the other way round. Borrowing on the £ did not rely on the EU's ability to repay it or support loans. It's the Euro that relies on the UK, that's why the EU tried too hit us for support of existing loans in the divorce bill.

Yes but that's irrelevant in the medium to long term because the jobs required to replace the absence of EU imports is larger than the jobs lost due to the absence off UK-EU exports. And in the short term, the money savings will tide us over.
 
BMD said:
Yes, it will. Think about the EU borrowing money and their ability to make interest payments and the subsequent risk factor. They have several basket cases economies and they just lost 20% of their GDP and near 25% of their net budget funding.

Your statement makes no sense, the UK was part of the EU, not the other way round. Borrowing on the £ did not rely on the EU's ability to repay it or support loans. It's the Euro that relies on the UK, that's why the EU tried too hit us for support of existing loans in the divorce bill.

Yes but that's irrelevant in the medium to long term because the jobs required to replace the absence of EU imports is larger than the jobs lost due to the absence off UK-EU exports. And in the short term, the money savings will tide us over.
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You are worrying too much about the EU borrowings. They will simply print more euros and other countries will buy that currency.

As for jobs, the movement of jobs from the UK to the EU will be faster than vice versa.
 
randomradio said:
You are worrying too much about the EU borrowings. They will simply print more euros and other countries will buy that currency.

As for jobs, the movement of jobs from the UK to the EU will be faster than vice versa.
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Why would they? Several EU nations are badly over leveraged. The interest rates will definitely rise. They will have to pay more for other countries to buy that money.

Don't bet on it, there's more in the EU that will be cut off. Not to mention the ones funded by UK money in the EU, which we can reuse to create jobs here.:LOL:
 
The problem with the EU is the incapacity to reverse mistakes. At one point in time a few men gather to make decision with massive constitutional implications for 500m people and 28 countries without asking anybody. But even if 27 nations and 450m people decide those decisions are shit at a later date, there's no way of reversing them, because the last nation has the veto. So the EU is condemned to a path of irreversible mistakes.
 
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