Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions

[Guynextdoor]

Nope, jobs will be moved here and local production will increase to fill the vacuum. And if imports do continue, the people buying them will pay the price of trade and the taxpayer will receive it, rather than the taxpayer subsidising their purchases as per the current system.

http://www.eucolait.eu/userfiles/files/Position papers/Eucolait position on future EU-UK trade relations 2017_02_15.pdf


So 35% of £3bn? That's >£1bn in tariffs we'd collect on dairy products alone, while our dairy exports would only result in £350m being collected, and by the EU not the recipient countries.

A further £3.8bn would be collected on EU motor vehicle imports.
Motor vehicle trade between the UK and its main EU partners | ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

But eu products are highly quality so why would their exports to Britain diminish when demand is so high

 

[BMD]

The followign is the sequence of Brexit events, as has been identified by investigative reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein:

a) Queen mother and Queen hatch plan to reclaim the lost British territories and colonial empire
b) They call Camerron to brief him and ask him to set up referrendum, Boris and Farrage are ordered to lead leave campaign
c) David Cameroon protests pointing out that European Union has learnt from history and was against another colonial enterprise. All ethical considerations of cameroon are ignored by the pair
d) Queen mother threatens to have him jailed and orders that EU should be removed from Britain and Brexit referrendum go ahead is given
e) Juncker, privately informed of these above events makes an impassioned plea to queen. He is silenced with threat of Jail/ even assasination
f) Harry is ordered to marry Meghan Markle because queen thinks she may need more money to carry out her plans and dowry coming through her succesful acting career can help
g) British people, scared of losing jobs vote for staying in EU
h) Queen mother and queen rig elections and order BBC to show it as close win for Leave.

a) Nazis lose WWII in 1945.
b) After several years crying into their pillow they hatch plan to takeover Europe by first creating a trade deal and then subtly removing sovereign rights, one-by-one from nations party to that deal.
c) The European Coal and Steel Community is born in 1951.
d) This Community begins to grow, cutting off bilateral trade with neighbouring countries in pre-WTO days forcing them to join.
e) In the mid-90s the WTO comes into force.
f) Early 21st centuries, standards are lowered to expedite expansion of the block and the A8 and A2 nations join.
g) UK examines WTO tariffs, sees how much it's paying, looks at the trade deficit and decides it isn't worth it anymore.
h) George Soros is upset and calls everybody a racist.
i) Hungary elects leader to troll George Soros.
j) George Soros instructs EU to make Hungary eat poo.
k) Hungary says no.
l) EU tries to get a court decision forcing them to eat poo.

 

[BMD]

But eu products are highly quality so why would their exports to Britain diminish when demand is so high

Because of price. Take cars, the change in exchange rate plus WTO tariffs would make them 25% more expensive than in June 2016. Nobody is going to pay Jaguar prices for a Renault hatch.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Because of price. Take cars, the change in exchange rate plus WTO tariffs would make them 25% more expensive than in June 2016. Nobody is going to pay Jaguar prices for a Renault hatch.

but after Brexit no one in Britain has money to buy Jaguars either. So......?

 

[BMD]

but after Brexit no one in Britain has money to buy Jaguars either. So......?

Based on what. There are more EU jobs reliant of exports to the UK than there are UK jobs reliant on exports to the EU. Tariffs are higher for EU goods types too. We would make £15bn on tariffs and £11bn by not having to pay the EU, even before we look at other aspects.

The above picture is normal everyday life in Romania, except no one stole the horse.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Based on what. There are more EU jobs reliant of exports to the UK than there are UK jobs reliant on exports to the EU. Tariffs are higher for EU goods types too. We would make £15bn on tariffs and £11bn by not having to pay the EU, even before we look at other aspects.

The above picture is normal everyday life in Romania, except no one stole the horse.

you're right. The demand for EU products is so high that there are a very large number of EU jobs on British exports. Losing such high quality products will harm UK economy.

 

[BMD]

you're right. The demand for EU products is so high that there are a very large number of EU jobs on British exports. Losing such high quality products will harm UK economy.

They won't be lost though, production will either be moved here, replaced locally, or the HMRC will collect tariffs. So win, win or win basically.

 

[randomradio]

Yes and that would leave the UK as the winner, since the EU exports twice as much to us, as we do to them.

It may not necessarily work out that way.

A huge chunk of the exports are car parts that go to British car makers, who in turn export the finished car to the EU and elsewhere. If the British car makers themselves move out of the UK, then that large chunk of EU exports into the UK will reduce significantly. 80% of the cars produced by the UK are exported after all.

 

[BMD]

It may not necessarily work out that way.

A huge chunk of the exports are car parts that go to British car makers, who in turn export the finished car to the EU and elsewhere. If the British car makers themselves move out of the UK, then that large chunk of EU exports into the UK will reduce significantly. 80% of the cars produced by the UK are exported after all.

Actually we are quite capable of making our own car parts. Have you never heard of names like Ricardo, Xtrac and Cosworth?

Only 54% of our cars are exported too the EU though, the amount they export to us is 3x that. It's also a 3:1 ratio on auto-parts too, which figures, since the parts are for the cars.
Motor vehicle trade between the UK and its main EU partners | ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

So whilst we would stand to lose that 54%, we would stand to gain >154%, which is a win. As you can see from the above link, Germany will take the biggest hit, followed by Belgium, Spain and France. And given that the French riot even after winning the World Cup, I don't think they'd be very pleased about losing automotive manufacturing jobs.

We don't want this, because ideologically we support free trade, but the EU wants to omit services, apply a cost, dictate judicial and legislativee rules etc. which is not our definition of 'free', so we need to show them a picture of what non-free trade looks like.

 

[randomradio]

Actually we are quite capable of making our own car parts. Have you never heard of names like Ricardo, Xtrac and Cosworth?

Only 54% of our cars are exported too the EU though, the amount they export to us is 3x that. It's also a 3:1 ratio on auto-parts too, which figures, since the parts are for the cars.
Motor vehicle trade between the UK and its main EU partners | ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

So whilst we would stand to lose that 54%, we would stand to gain >154%, which is a win. As you can see from the above link, Germany will take the biggest hit, followed by Belgium, Spain and France. And given that the French riot even after winning the World Cup, I don't think they'd be very pleased about losing automotive manufacturing jobs.

We don't want this, because ideologically we support free trade, but the EU wants to omit services, apply a cost, dictate judicial and legislativee rules etc. which is not our definition of 'free', so we need to show them a picture of what non-free trade looks like.

I doubt it's going to be that simple. That's a lot of money for both sides.

 

[BMD]

I doubt it's going to be that simple. That's a lot of money for both sides.

Even if we lost all our EU-export associated jobs and only gained 1 in every 3 EU jobs associated with exports to us, we would still break even on jobs and save paying the EU subscription fees, collect billions in tariffs, be free to trade with the rest of the world, control our judiciary and legislation, control immigration and asylum and retake full control over our fishing waters. It's very difficult to see how we would end up on the losing side.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

THE MOST VISITING WORLDWIDE COUNTRIES
05.12.2017 Author
1. France – 83 million

Millions of people come to France to climb the Eiffel Tower, visit Notre-Dame de Paris, eat roasted chestnuts, soak up the Cote d’Azur and tour the old wine-growing regions.

The elegant beauty France is a holiday with charm: a rich “excursion”, rest on the refined Côte d’Azur, famous museums, gastronomic provinces and castles of the Loire.

“Better than France, nothing has been invented yet” – this sassy, if not to say more sharply, de Gaulle’s phrase as well begs for a severe refutation, at least on the scale of Europe. Take, for example, the famous half-timbered houses in Germany. What? In Alsace are the same? Um, really.

Okay, look at neighboring Belgium with its special charm of the well-tended village, authentic French fries and “wine” beer … What? All this can be found in Nor-Pas-de-Calais? Damn, it really is. Well, it’s good, but purely British chips – fogs from the Gulf Stream, red phone booths, climbing roses on large-brick walls of village houses and heathlands with gigantic pebbles of boulders rolled by glaciers – are there really no places to get them from France? And again: by not as famous as Paris or Nice, but to the loving heart of many travelers of Brittany, this is almost more than in England.

If we talk about the southern neighbors, then the admirers of Italy will feel at home in the sunny Provence, and Spain – in the mountains of the Pyrenees and on the dry plains of Languedoc.

And in any way it will not turn out to be silent about a thousand other things that make France – France. About the roaring of the tide at the foot of the “eighth wonder of the world” of Mount Saint-Michel, about the Loire castles – elegant, like carved caskets of the Renaissance. On the ingenious bad taste of the Eiffel Tower and the colored glare of the medieval stained glass windows of Saint-Chapelle. About the gargoyles of Notre Dame, stabbing the stone gaze into the glass faces of La Defense, the humpbacked lanes of Montmartre, the vast halls of the Louvre, the crunchy air of Mont Blanc and the warm aromas of baking and coffee from the Parisian boulevards … Charles, you are certainly a cheeky type, but to cover – nothing!

10 things to do in France:

• To fall under the charm of the brilliant Paris and repeatedly return to its sweet embrace.
• Try on the role of a French aristocrat in one of the Chateaus of the Loire.
• One glimpse of the life of royalty in Versailles.
• Arrange a holiday for children – take them to the whole day at Disneyland.
• To see the largest dune in the Northern Hemisphere – why go to Aquitaine.
• To sharpen abrupt bends on the slopes of the Three Valleys.
• Acquire a bronze shade of the skin at the resorts of Côte d’Azur.
• Feel the rebellious spirit of Southerners in Corsica.
• To penetrate into the history of the widows of the clique and Perignon houses in the most amusing region – Champagne.

http://mostinteresting.xyz/10-the-most-visiting-worldwide-countries/10/

 

[randomradio]

Even if we lost all our EU-export associated jobs and only gained 1 in every 3 EU jobs associated with exports to us, we would still break even on jobs and save paying the EU subscription fees, collect billions in tariffs, be free to trade with the rest of the world, control our judiciary and legislation, control immigration and asylum and retake full control over our fishing waters. It's very difficult to see how we would end up on the losing side.

This will eventually happen in the long term.

But, in the meantime, there's going to be big problems stabilising the economy. Companies will have to spend a lot on infrastructure before what you say happens. So in the short term, maybe even mid term, there will be job losses.

The EU will simply cut their losses. 80% of the UK's automotive industry (100% actually) will get hit from day 1 versus only 12% of the EU's industry. It's less of a problem for the EU and more of a problem for the UK.

Plus the fact that the UK population prefer imported cars, 2.3M, over their own domestic models, 350K, shows that the EU has a very significant say over what the British consume. Which means many of the British will likely pay the extra tariff anyway. So the EU companies will likely hold back on moving into the UK immediately, at least until a trade agreement is sorted out, which could take years.

And it's not just the EU. The UK is a beneficiary of FTA that the EU has signed with many countries. So all that has to be negotiated again, like the one with South Korea and Japan.

It's the transitory period that's the most important right now.

 

[BMD]

This will eventually happen in the long term.

But, in the meantime, there's going to be big problems stabilising the economy. Companies will have to spend a lot on infrastructure before what you say happens. So in the short term, maybe even mid term, there will be job losses.

The EU will simply cut their losses. 80% of the UK's automotive industry (100% actually) will get hit from day 1 versus only 12% of the EU's industry. It's less of a problem for the EU and more of a problem for the UK.

Plus the fact that the UK population prefer imported cars, 2.3M, over their own domestic models, 350K, shows that the EU has a very significant say over what the British consume. Which means many of the British will likely pay the extra tariff anyway. So the EU companies will likely hold back on moving into the UK immediately, at least until a trade agreement is sorted out, which could take years.

And it's not just the EU. The UK is a beneficiary of FTA that the EU has signed with many countries. So all that has to be negotiated again, like the one with South Korea and Japan.

It's the transitory period that's the most important right now.

In the short term they'll probably have to build border infrastructure on both sides to even begin enforcing the new system and building infrastructure creates jobs.

Only 54% of our cars go to the EU, not 80% and 3x that amount comes from the EU to us, more than half of which is from Germany. Germany exports 1.6x more cars to us than we do to the entire EU. As the largest EU budget contributor, they'll probably be hit hardest for our share once we leave, and nobody wants their adopted kids from the Middle East either, so they're lumbered with them too.

You forget that Germany companies have car manufacturing plants here already. They will need to increase production and hire more people, or face customers moving to other companies.

We inherit trade deals with other countries, that was sorted out in the divorce proceedings.

Not really, the transition period is a time-waster, I want to get on and do this already.

 

[A Person]

We inherit trade deals with other countries, that was sorted out in the divorce proceedings.

That's dependent on there being a deal at all in the end. "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

 

[BMD]

That's dependent on there being a deal at all in the end. "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

No it isn't. Other countries care nothing for the EU's *censored*-hattery and just want to trade. Besides that, Verhofstadt contradicted David Davis's statement on that anyway. And the Japan deal will likely benefit the UK more than the EU because we both drive on the correct side of the road, so we can export excess stock, rather than having to purpose-build cars for export. All we have to do is swap the window wiper and indicator stalks around.

 

[BMD]

 

[Guynextdoor]

They won't be lost though, production will either be moved here, replaced locally, or the HMRC will collect tariffs. So win, win or win basically.

Why would any country move production to a devastated economy with little skilled labor

 

[randomradio]

In the short term they'll probably have to build border infrastructure on both sides to even begin enforcing the new system and building infrastructure creates jobs.

Only 54% of our cars go to the EU, not 80% and 3x that amount comes from the EU to us, more than half of which is from Germany. Germany exports 1.6x more cars to us than we do to the entire EU. As the largest EU budget contributor, they'll probably be hit hardest for our share once we leave, and nobody wants their adopted kids from the Middle East either, so they're lumbered with them too.

You are forgetting all the imported car parts used. Those have to be localised or you will pay more and become less competitive in other countries.

We inherit trade deals with other countries, that was sorted out in the divorce proceedings.

Those are birds in the bushes. You can't even begin to think about that until Brexit actually happens.

Not really, the transition period is a time-waster, I want to get on and do this already.

I am not talking about the two-year period for Article 50. I am talking about the time it will take to localise production.

 

[randomradio]

No it isn't. Other countries care nothing for the EU's *censored*-hattery and just want to trade.

The biggest roadblock for an India-EU FTA was the UK and its stance on services. While India benefits from Brexit, the US does not. So you can expect backlash from the US for the UK leaving the EU.