Our Tri-Services have taken - "Taiyari abhi jaari hai, aur ab ki taiyari pehle se zyada bhaari hai" too damn seriously! God knows what's cooking!
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My exact thoughts! There seems to be a lot of things going on behind the scenes and at the risk of repeating myself here on this forum, this number of NOTAMs across the length and breadth of the country along with the SFC tests are unprecedented.
I wonder if any one knows what the exact threat is that India is trying to prevent. My guess is that India knows a Pak surprise attack is on the cards - somewhere/somehow with possible backing of US. This might be a way to discourage such tactics while preparing for a higher degree military offensive at the same time to be employed if push comes to shove!
I really doubt that — based on the history of our Babus, we might hit Pak harder and deeper, but certainly not “solve” the problem. We always let Pakistan live to fight another day as a policy, I don’t see that changing.
More like IAF practicing air to air combat apart from other missions after the mission based on the learnings it got, which was obvious.
That part is definitely there, but do you think our posturing has been this way for no reason other than “practice” and “incorporating the learnings”? We had a major air engagement post Balakote, did we see this kind of stuff from IAF - even though they most certainly practiced air combat based on lessons then as well. How do you justify public declaration of missile tests by our SFC - AFAIK (correct me if I am wrong) has never happened before! All three services engaged in major military drills across all spectrum. Just “practice” ?
I would definitely want to degrade Pak military, step by step if not in single shot.
Preferably before Pak received J35 to avoid any complications.
Exercises in North and north east could be diversion or precaution against Chinese opening up second front.
It that going to be the time window?
It ll also put US / Chinese relationship on test. Who ll be backing us or acting against us.
We ll know whom to engage in future.
Because 2019 was a minor skirmish, this thing was a proper small-scale war and had the potential to escalate into full blown war had the pakees not surrendered to our DGMO.
So your take on this is that the super heightened level of readiness on display here has nothing to do with a “probable” Pakistani attack in recent future?
Yes, they won't do anything stupid for a few years at least. As of now they are more vulnerable with more than a dozen of their fighter aircraft gone/damaged, an AEW&C gone and at least half a dozen radars apart from some SAM nodes gone as well. My guess is in 2029 they might try doing something similar.
Bangaladesh and recent overtures of yunus and jei
There has been increase in NIA busting terror modules. This shows that ISI has activated it's assets to go beyond recruitment and spying.
For all the loss which will occur to India during skirmish, Pakistan will pay through it's territory.
That’s rational thinking. I have a different view - Munir is a wildcard. He thrives on Jihadi / radical behaviour. For him, he has lost a lot and got a drubbing during Sindoor. Irrespective of what they say, they know (and worse, their public knows) that they got their *censored* handed to them when our missiles struck their cities at will. The fear they felt was real!
Now, the window of action in my opinion is not under India’s control — we will be reactive. The problem is that our intelligence agencies are just one bad day away from a big attack on Indian soil, look at how many encounters are taking place routinely and also people getting caught with explosives within the country.
If you try to do something everyday, you will eventually succeed and the terrorists need to succeed just once! Pakistan has been receiving a massive amount of external help from China, Turkey and now, even USA to rebuild what they lost - now they might even get US defensive systems (AD) for their sensitive areas while Chine and Turkey are helping them with offensive capabilities. The notion that they will take till 2029 to try something is far fetched AFAIC as they need to make use of the current US Government under Trump ( there is no way in hell Trump is getting another term ) . I don’t think we will have till 2029 before a major conflict. Let’s see how things play out.
I really really doubt that. I will be happy to be proven wrong wrt this.
A wise guy(@p2prada) once said on old D F I that India would lose the next war with China if don't have 120 Rafales and FGFA. Now the time has come back one full circle it seems since soon we have both of these in substantial numbers, lol.
I have to agree with defcon here. We can't take decision on assumptions which puts pakistan as a rational adversary. Time and again, it has proven that rationality has very little to do with their actions. Their actions are led by their ideological need, and circumstances when trying to have more control of population of Pakistan. And skirmish with India has always been their favourite way of doing it.
Another aspect is that last three attacks have been in Kashmir region. But, whenever they want to bring global attention to kashmir, they target mainland India.
### Let me explain:
Terrorism is literally an industry in today's world, terror orgs are as much as in competition within themselves for funding just like any corporate will be. And that financial network is global with different vested interests "investing" in different orgs that does things which helps their own cause.
US propping up mujahideen is just one of the open news of a nation funding terrorist. And the network they had created all over middle east and Africa to fund it, still runs.
And it's not in control of US govt alone anymore.
Saudi Iran, Iraq, Russia, China, turkey, europe, royalty, the so called 1% .. all have been found or strongly suspected ( even india) to fund these proxy groups as their needs suit. ISI is more like a node in this network. Mujahideen, Taliban , Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS and it's variant.. they started as radical group but now are part of wider network. It's not for nothing that it's rightly called terrorism industry now.
ISI gets a lot of things from this industry. They get finances and leverage from it. Narcotics, trafficking, smuggling forms a huge part of this network and these things thrive in unstable regions, not the stable ones.
Basically people running pakistan have a huge stake in this global jihadi network. The whole mumbai underworld became a major part of it during early day of this network. And war on terror was the final push that made pakistan literally dependent on the industry. Heck, i don't think they can get out of it now even if they want to. Far larger forces are in control and thrive on the network to see one of its node being dismantled that easy. (Imran Khan, positive vibes don't create a good ground for radicalism).
And this network isn't a theory, i am sure we all know that. And it's not only against India. West Asians royalties use these to find groups to target other royalties. Iran used it to suppress Israel. And China have done it in Myanmar conflict, China, US, Europe in sudan-rwanda conflict among other major african terror orgs too, for minerals and to make sure that a strong african govt doesn't make it harder for them to explore and exploit the vast minerals there. Earlier Gold, copper now REE.
Drug cartels have interest to destablise region resulting in increased in drug money. I mean we just call them cartel or mafia cause they do things away from public limelight with little direct friction in civilian lives and run by profit intersts. Terrorist funders might not, but terrorist differ in such that they are radical in nature that can't be controlled with traditional logic of greed. They want to kill, not run some business. Add to it their nature of being attracted to public highlight, it's mafia x 10. Point being, pakistan is a major producer of those terrorists that can't be groomed with promises of money. They need a cause. i.e. Mujhaideen against USSR, Let JUD etc against India.. which fits right into their ambition as a nation state too.
- Huge finances, basically a shadow economy of unprecedented scale unlike any other in past.
###
Coming back to the answer, my rationale is that Israel has dealt heavy blow to existing terrorist orgs in their region. Pakistan have suffered a lot too because of unsuccesful attempts and big indian response. It isn't just against few terrorists or pak army.. but just like in business, even their "investors" will think twice before funding them. Choosing other methods they have at their disposal.
This creates a far more threat to ISI/ pak army/ pak govt/ pakistan ( there's hardly any difference now with munir in power) finances and leverage than being discussed but being directly backed by state resources and land.. it's not in hamas like state.
It will do everything to pitch itself as a contender. Munir isn't fool to make those terrorist remarks from foreign soil. There's a lot of donors ( charity) in that part of world. It's just like when modi goes to foreign soil and pitches India as a place for investment and building. Difference is the area they are calling for investments in.
And kid yourself not, there's huge no. of sponsors who have interests and need to use these terrorists for their cause. Wether in India, against Russia, Against US, Against Middle eastern.. yes, they don't have a permanent contract. If you notice.. ISI has hands in various organisations targetting different different regions. And it's barely sustaining itself right now with stronger pushback from Indian state, Israel's actions and China getting close to Taiwan annexation timeline, US backing off for some time to an extent.
Hence, even the rational thinking from ISIs pov is to do an attack on india to come back into headlines. They tried in pahalgam but instead face more credibility issues due to op sindoor.
And this time they might even have tacit support from US too. Not because of just trade. But I believe everyone in world will want to test India's new normal to calibrate their future assessment of india.
And this time, it might not be from Jk to mainland. But either sleeper cells, Bangladesh and nepali borders and their citizens giving them the point that it's not their national. ( Based on recent remarks). Add to that RGs statement that anyone can "misuse" this to attack india and target pak ( fits into future pak narrative and victim card), chidambaram ( what if they're homegrown terrorist) , the compromised and complicit members of various political parties ( based on people found and arrested during past crackdown), modules busted ( recently in jharkhand and Punjab) , and many other NGOs (US involvement) .. I see the foundation being set for next terror attacks and subsequent political and military warfare.
Coming back to the case of SFC tests, and such.. earlier I was not being able to come up with possible effective reaction to this or validity of such assumption cum analysis. But the most recent NOTAM in northeast makes me really believe it and actually wonder if IAFs signalling their willingness and getting ready to strike in eastern bordered groups in case of such event.
I see three challenges:
1. Indian intelligence can't afford any mistake. But prepare for worst is ideal way. So, have to counter the people radicalised and recruited inside India to foil use of this narrative and threat. ( The busted one might be either decoys, or just one of many being activated)
2. Armed forces this time have to be ready for bigger escalation from western border. And have to see if political will comes for eastern borders.
3. It's the challenge for govt and BJP. The NGOs, RaGa,and ( not anti national but shortsighted) other political parties are waiting like hawks with script in hand to muddy the waters at the first signal. And this i believe is the most difficult challenge of three. Cause these elements hide behind narrative of public welfare to undermine public itself.
And I absolutely believe that both govt and BJP failed this challenge during last iteration of op sindoor.
I don't see any initiative of adaptation from govt that suggests that we are getting ready for much bigger campaign. Although Congress keeps giving them experience regularly but still very un-coordinated efforts from BJP.. let alone the fragmented govt machinery.
And the next war as already stated by our generals and CDS will be fought not only by military but civil society. That's info warfare and challenging new doctrine through rationale such as ( non Pakistani national, rerouting funding methods to make it harder to track and provide credible proof that the 0.5 will definitely ask), testing the new doctrine and its limits.
I don't know what future holds but hopefully some sense will prevail among public and non govt/bjp politicians to not help the 0.5 cause most of them do it for plitical gains, not supporting the 0.5.
I rest my case. My rationale arrives from my own thoughts + couple of interviews I read of US officers + timeline of past incidents. I will try to collect the sources and timelines in one place and post it here.
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