Ukraine - Russia Conflict

BMD

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jetray

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Fairly shortly ROK and Japan will likely get nukes, and then Russia will have placed China in a situation it didn't want and they will be unhappy.
Chances of US giving nukes to other cntries is less but placing their nukes on their soil , yes. But that act of placing nukes on cntries adjoining china will be like digging a deeper hole that they will not able to climb out. Then china will give nuke tech saudi or iran and it will be all over for US in asia.
 

jetray

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Drones are doing well in Ukraine 'cause neither side has deployed sufficient defenses against them. A fully modernized force will not face the same issue.
problems is area coverage, how much area can you cover with AD ? It will be very expensive. Low flying loitering drones will be even more dangerous. They can be launched from small vehicles and conduct sneak attacks, a perfect low cost option for harassing your enemy.
But that's still not as dangerous as Russia's military expansion. They have already decided to triple the size of their army, that's too much. We could similarly see a massive expansion of their air force and navy.
No point in building a big military unless they plan to go on big offensive. Based on what they are doing now, it hardly looks it will be useful in any way. They need to copy the west tactic of proxy games or risk huge military spending with very less returns.


Personally, from India's perspective, I don't care about their army and air force, it's only a headache for the West and China. But the expansion of their navy is gonna be a problem for India, it will make the Pacific more crowded than necessary. And, in terms of economics, a lot of Western money is now gonna be spent on defense, and that's a problem for India because it reduces foreign investment opportunities for all parties and will result in reduced global growth, which in turn will affect our own long term growth. Overall, if Russia and Europe also start militarizing alongside the US and China, all that additional demand will jack up construction prices too. And then, even we will have to militarize in order to match the Chinese. So it's a triple whammy on our economy. Hence my assertion of everything bad happening 5 years before it should have.
yeah yeah lazy Indians will always a problem, there aint a date in history we dint have problems. When you are reactive rather than pro active thats what happens. Worse thing is that India is not going to gain any thing big out of it , other than usual farts.
 

BMD

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Chances of US giving nukes to other cntries is less but placing their nukes on their soil , yes. But that act of placing nukes on cntries adjoining china will be like digging a deeper hole that they will not able to climb out. Then china will give nuke tech saudi or iran and it will be all over for US in asia.
They don't need the US to give them nukes. They're 100x more advanced than the DPRK.
 

randomradio

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Not really, since it just causes inflation, so the real earnings are the same. Equally Russian interest rates are now 13% just to try and stabilise the ruble at 1 cent. That racks up more interest on debt, which means even less money.

Inflation in Russia is 5%, dude.

Europe is already getting gas from elsewhere. Gas is also included in those fossil fuels.

Cutting supply still jacks up prices.

Proof of the pudding has been witnessed by all. Only you are still living in la la denial land. Well, you and The Hindustan TCrimes.

Exports only prove that some customers were dumb at this stage.

Fact.

Sure, you can keep believing that.

Taking out enemy ammo dumps won't help? :unsure: And yeah, keeping the Russian air force in pieces also helps, as does wrecking railway lines, or even carpeting training grounds in Russia - that would really spice up a live fire exercise.

Nope. The numbers are too small for sustained disruption.
 

BMD

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Inflation in Russia is 5%, dude.
Russia is math challenged, their official figures aren't worth a stale turd. Remember the 1 person who died at Black Sea Fleet HQ that turned into 34+ even by pro-Russian blogger accounts.
Cutting supply still jacks up prices.
We have friends elsewhere. Russia does not have a monopoly.
Sure, you can keep believing that.
Show me any evidence of an S-400 shooting down anything. I'll bet that underperforming Pantsir has shot down more and even its sh!t.
Nope. The numbers are too small for sustained disruption.
The numbers will keep increasing, follow the trends. Diarrhoea Times can't change that.
 
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randomradio

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problems is area coverage, how much area can you cover with AD ? It will be very expensive. Low flying loitering drones will be even more dangerous. They can be launched from small vehicles and conduct sneak attacks, a perfect low cost option for harassing your enemy.

There are two types of ADS that can accompany armored columns. One set is like SoKo's Biho. The other consists of an advanced APS with hard kill capabilities present on the vehicles themselves. Neither drones nor ATGMs will present a monumental threat in such an environment.

No point in building a big military unless they plan to go on big offensive. Based on what they are doing now, it hardly looks it will be useful in any way. They need to copy the west tactic of proxy games or risk huge military spending with very less returns.

Even if there is no war, the economic impact on the West will be tremendous for a fraction of the cost that Russia will spend.

For example, a Yasen-M costs $650M. 100 SSNs will cost them just $65B. Over a 30-year period, that's just a little over $2B a year. It's impossible for the West to match this fleet. They will require $500B minimum, or about $17B a year. With another $2B, they can build a large surface fleet as well, including nuclear-powered destroyers, not just carriers. So you can see why I'm worried about how it will impact India as well, not just the West.

Russia's defense budget is expected to climb to $112B, remove $30B in revenue cost, we get at least $80B. Add a very modest 5 times multiplier, their modernization budget will be equivalent to $400B compared to the US' $140B. Before 2014, Russia's budget was half that of the US, a few years later it more or less matched the US, but they lacked technology. But next year they will have the technology and 3 times more money than the US. Their modernization budget from next year will be as big as the US, China and the EU combined.

And in the meantime, they are fomenting trouble everywhere anyway, both ME and Africa. But both are playing this game, the biggest one today is Ukraine.

To add to that, their state finances are growing by 20-25% every year, which means in just 5 years, they can double their defense budget and become 2x what the US, China and EU spend. They are effectively back in the superpower business.

yeah yeah lazy Indians will always a problem, there aint a date in history we dint have problems. When you are reactive rather than pro active thats what happens. Worse thing is that India is not going to gain any thing big out of it , other than usual farts.

Not at all. India is like an adolescent in this game, yet to grow up. Russia's like a 25-year-old Usain Bolt on the road to success, China's like an established 35-year-old and the West is like a bunch of 50-year-olds getting ready for retirement. India by its very nature cannot compete with adults yet. All countries are betting on our potential, but we are absolutely useless today. To play the great power game in today's world, India needs a per capita income of $4000-5000. That's the minimum amount necessary for most people in the country to become interested in education, politics and the environment. Below that level, they are not being lazy, they are just trying not to die.

Take the poverty line for example. There are three categories, $1.9, $3.2 and $5.5 per day. That's basically $693.5, $1168 and $2007.5 per year. With a PPP exchange rate of Rs. 23, we get 16000, 27000 and 46000 resply. How the f*** can people live on just 15000 to 46000 per year? 85% of India's population survive on less than Rs. 46000 per year, or Rs. 3800 per month. About 30% on 27000 or 2250 per month. These people obviously don't give two sh!ts about what's happening outside their own homes. And since they represent 85% of the population, politicians too will only care about what these people care about, absolute basic necessities that every single member reading this post takes for granted. And what, 85% of India can't even manage their homes and you want them to take on the US and China?
 

BMD

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
22,249
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There are two types of ADS that can accompany armored columns. One set is like SoKo's Biho. The other consists of an advanced APS with hard kill capabilities present on the vehicles themselves. Neither drones nor ATGMs will present a monumental threat in such an environment.



Even if there is no war, the economic impact on the West will be tremendous for a fraction of the cost that Russia will spend.

For example, a Yasen-M costs $650M. 100 SSNs will cost them just $65B. Over a 30-year period, that's just a little over $2B a year. It's impossible for the West to match this fleet. They will require $500B minimum, or about $17B a year. With another $2B, they can build a large surface fleet as well, including nuclear-powered destroyers, not just carriers. So you can see why I'm worried about how it will impact India as well, not just the West.

Russia's defense budget is expected to climb to $112B, remove $30B in revenue cost, we get at least $80B. Add a very modest 5 times multiplier, their modernization budget will be equivalent to $400B compared to the US' $140B. Before 2014, Russia's budget was half that of the US, a few years later it more or less matched the US, but they lacked technology. But next year they will have the technology and 3 times more money than the US. Their modernization budget from next year will be as big as the US, China and the EU combined.

And in the meantime, they are fomenting trouble everywhere anyway, both ME and Africa. But both are playing this game, the biggest one today is Ukraine.

To add to that, their state finances are growing by 20-25% every year, which means in just 5 years, they can double their defense budget and become 2x what the US, China and EU spend. They are effectively back in the superpower business.



Not at all. India is like an adolescent in this game, yet to grow up. Russia's like a 25-year-old Usain Bolt on the road to success, China's like an established 35-year-old and the West is like a bunch of 50-year-olds getting ready for retirement. India by its very nature cannot compete with adults yet. All countries are betting on our potential, but we are absolutely useless today. To play the great power game in today's world, India needs a per capita income of $4000-5000. That's the minimum amount necessary for most people in the country to become interested in education, politics and the environment. Below that level, they are not being lazy, they are just trying not to die.

Take the poverty line for example. There are three categories, $1.9, $3.2 and $5.5 per day. That's basically $693.5, $1168 and $2007.5 per year. With a PPP exchange rate of Rs. 23, we get 16000, 27000 and 46000 resply. How the f*** can people live on just 15000 to 46000 per year? 85% of India's population survive on less than Rs. 46000 per year, or Rs. 3800 per month. About 30% on 27000 or 2250 per month. These people obviously don't give two sh!ts about what's happening outside their own homes. And since they represent 85% of the population, politicians too will only care about what these people care about, absolute basic necessities that every single member reading this post takes for granted. And what, 85% of India can't even manage their homes and you want them to take on the US and China?
Yeah, yeah, remember what the doormouse said. Your take on the world is truly puzzling. And your position has placed India on its own with no allies. Well done.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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India
Yeah, yeah, remember what the doormouse said. Your take on the world is truly puzzling. And your position has placed India on its own with no allies. Well done.

India is neutral when it comes to Russia. You want Russia as your enemy, go ahead, we have bigger things to deal with back home.

The idea was the West will not wake the bear, and India will slowly grow over the coming decade to become a $4000-5000 economy, perhaps more. By then, Putin will be gone, probably their best leader since WW2, and Russia will have become an advanced economy with a comparatively weaker leadership, and India will have the resources to actually act as a counterweight to Russia and China. With India in the game, things would have balanced out. All Europe had to do was expand its navy a bit more in the meantime, ready to expand further at a short notice. But what's happening now is a complete clusterfvck simply because the West has severely underestimated Russia.

India doesn't need allies. Even if it's a clusterfvck, the fact that we are not enemies with Russia means their navy is not a direct military threat to India, it's just a headache having to deal with a third very powerful navy in the IOR 10-15 years in advance. The Indian Ocean is gonna become the most important water body in the 2030s after all, so their presence will pose a challenge. Without Russia, the IOR would almost entirely be India's ocean because the lines have already been drawn; the US is a friend, China is an enemy and the IN would be the biggest navy in the IOR. So you can see how Russia upsets that balance. A powerful navy also allows them to gain influence in other IOR countries, especially Africa. The only advantage we have is all this will come into play only in the 2040s in a post-Putin era, so we have a headstart for now.

Anyway, this new Russia is a problem mainly for the West to deal with. And too bad it's gonna be with Putin at the helm. This level of screw-up is probably the biggest one in the West's history. And the region that's least prepared to deal with the fallout is Europe. It's not an India problem.