Ukraine - Russia Conflict

randomradio said:
India is neutral when it comes to Russia. You want Russia as your enemy, go ahead, we have bigger things to deal with back home.

The idea was the West will not wake the bear, and India will slowly grow over the coming decade to become a $4000-5000 economy,
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$5k? It might well do with people like you calling the shots. :ROFLMAO:
randomradio said:
perhaps more. By then,
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Putin won't go until he's dead.
randomradio said:
Putin will be gone, probably their best leader since WW2, and Russia will have become an advanced economy with a comparatively weaker leadership, and India will have the resources to actually act as a counterweight to Russia and China. With India in the game, things would have balanced out. All Europe had to do was expand its navy a bit more in the meantime, ready to expand further at a short notice. But what's happening now is a complete clusterfvck simply because the West has severely underestimated Russia.
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Putin won't go until he's dead. He's a Saddam Hussein style leader.
randomradio said:
India doesn't need allies. Even if it's a clusterfvck, the fact that we are not enemies with Russia means their navy is not a direct military threat to India, it's just a headache having to deal with a third very powerful navy in the IOR 10-15 years in advance. The Indian Ocean is gonna become the most important water body in the 2030s after all, so their presence will pose a challenge. Without Russia, the IOR would almost entirely be India's ocean because the lines have already been drawn; the US is a friend, China is an enemy and the IN would be the biggest navy in the IOR. So you can see how Russia upsets that balance. A powerful navy also allows them to gain influence in other IOR countries, especially Africa. The only advantage we have is all this will come into play only in the 2040s in a post-Putin era, so we have a headstart for now.

Anyway, this new Russia is a problem mainly for the West to deal with. And too bad it's gonna be with Putin at the helm. This level of screw-up is probably the biggest one in the West's history. And the region that's least prepared to deal with the fallout is Europe. It's not an India problem.
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China would whoop India and Russia would happily watch them do it. Anything that keeps China's mind off Manchuria is a good thing for them.

The screw-up is all Russia's. Your economic figures for Russia are complete nonsense based on upon nonsense.

Where's your 25% increase bro'? Looks to be down around €0.5bn/day since last year, that's ~€180bn/year. That's about 2 defence budgets worth. And their interest rates are 13% on borrowing. :ROFLMAO:

www.iea.org

Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? – Analysis - IEA

Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? - Analysis and findings. An article by the International Energy Agency.
www.iea.org www.iea.org

Russia relies heavily on revenues from oil and natural gas, which in 2021 made up 45% of Russia’s federal budget.
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energyandcleanair.org

July 2023 — Monthly analysis on Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

energyandcleanair.org energyandcleanair.org

1695546703598.png


Of course this doesn't account for war costs and asset damages incurred as a result thereof.
 
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BMD said:
Putin won't go until he's dead.

Putin won't go until he's dead. He's a Saddam Hussein style leader.
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Sure. But he will be 81-86 by then. He doesn't look like someone who's gonna make it to 80.

BMD said:
China would whoop India and Russia would happily watch them do it. Anything that keeps China's mind off Manchuria is a good thing for them.
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If the Chinese would whoop India, then they will face no problems with the US.

BMD said:
The screw-up is all Russia's. Your economic figures for Russia are complete nonsense based on upon nonsense.

Where's your 25% increase bro'? Looks to be down around €0.5bn/day since last year, that's ~€180bn/year. That's about 2 defence budgets worth. And their interest rates are 13% on borrowing. :ROFLMAO:

www.iea.org

Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? – Analysis - IEA

Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? - Analysis and findings. An article by the International Energy Agency.
www.iea.org www.iea.org



energyandcleanair.org

July 2023 — Monthly analysis on Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

energyandcleanair.org energyandcleanair.org

View attachment 30569

Of course this doesn't account for war costs and asset damages incurred as a result thereof.
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That's 'cause you don't know basic maths.
 
ISW Analysis:

Ukrainian forces are attacking along three directions within the Orikhiv salient as of September 24. Ukrainian forces are conducting attacks from Robotyne against Novoprokopivka.[6] Ukrainian forces are attacking directly into Verbove’s western side.[7] Ukrainian forces are also attacking north of Verbove.[8]

Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces broke into Verbove on September 22 and continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24. Geolocated combat footage posted on September 24 shows a Ukrainian BMP operating within Verbove’s westernmost village limits.[9] A VDV-affiliated source reported that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove for the first time on September 22 and continued pushing east.[10] The VDV source later reported that Ukrainian forces occupy half of Verbove as of September 24.[11] The VDV source accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of trying to conceal Ukraine’s tactical progress in Verbove, rhetorically stating, “For how long can Shoigu’s MoD hide the breakthrough in Verbove?“[12] Several Russian sources reported on September 24 that Ukrainian forces continue deploying vehicles against Verbove, including Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.[13] Some Russian sources are vehemently denying any Ukrainian breakthrough in Verbove as of September 24.[14] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces captured new unspecified locations near Verbove on September 24.[15]

Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove and could isolate the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka from its sister regiments in the Verbove area according to Russian sources. A Russian VDV source warned that there is a “real threat” of Ukrainian forces reaching the 56th VDV Regiment’s rear near Novofedorivka on September 21.[16] The VDV source warned on September 22 that Ukrainian forces are within 7km of encircling the 56th VDV Regiment and that the regiment would be in a difficult position if its commander did not make a decision to withdraw from Novofedorivka to other previously prepared positions.[17] ISW does not assess that an encirclement of the 56th VDV Regiment is likely, though Ukrainian forces may isolate it from the rest of the 7th VDV Division if Ukrainians manage to outmaneuver it from Verbove’s north and the regiment inexplicably remains in its current positions.

Ukrainian military journalist Konstyantyn Mashovets reported on September 22 that Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Verbove from the north.[18] A prominent Kremlin-linked milblogger reported on September 24 that Ukrainian forces improved their positions near Novofedorivka’s flank.[19] Another prominent Russian milblogger reported on September 23 that Ukrainian forces attempted to attack an unspecified tactical height with an elevation of 136.7 meters near Verbove and that Ukrainian forces were deploying vehicles from the north to the south near Verbove.[20] ISW assesses that this tactical height of 136.7 meters is likely located approximately 3.5km northwest of Verbove based on an analysis of digital elevation data around Verbove. (It is customary in militaries to identify locations based on terrain elevations as marked on commonly used military maps, but ISW does not have access to the Russian maps to check for such markings.)

NASA FIRMS/VIIRS thermal anomaly data collected between September 22-24 shows an unusually intense cluster of heat anomalies north of Verbove. These anomalies, while not dispositive, are a supporting indicator of combat north of Verbove and support the Russian and Ukrainian reports of Ukrainian activity between Novofedorivka and Verbove.

A Russian source affiliated with the VDV expressed panic at the prospect of significant Ukrainian advances in the Verbove area. A Russian milblogger, whose stated mission is to protect VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky from removal or arrest, warned on September 22 and 23 that the 56th VDV Regiment was under imminent threat of encirclement following the reported Ukrainian advance into Verbove.[21] The milblogger asserted that the commander of the 56th VDV Regiment was unable to make any decision about withdrawal and called on the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to allow Teplinsky to remedy the situation.[22] The milblogger noted high losses and poor morale among the 56th VDV Regiment and claimed that more than half of the personnel of the 7th and 76th VDV Divisions are mobilized personnel.[23] Other Russian sources, including those with close ties to the VDV, have not yet described the situation in Verbove or among VDV forces as this dire. The Russian milblogger may be exaggerating the situation in the Verbove area to negatively portray the Russian military command and advocate for Teplinsky to have more control over tactical and operational decision-making.

 
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Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold. A significant Ukrainian success will be more likely if:

1) Russian forces do not have the necessary reserves or combat power to maintain Russian defenses in western Zaporizhia Oblast;

2) Ukrainian forces retain enough combat power to continue pushing after exhausting Russian combat power; and

3) Russian defensive positions behind the current battle area are not as heavily mined or well prepared as the fortifications that Ukrainian forces have breached.

This hypothesis is invalid if any of these assumptions are invalidated. There are indicators that these assumptions remain valid as of this writing. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military does not have sufficient forces deployed to western Zaporizhia Oblast to completely man its defenses in depth and that Ukrainian forces should be able to operate through Russian field fortifications more rapidly if they are not properly manned.[37] Ukraine’s operations in Bakhmut have kept Russian forces committed to eastern Ukraine and away from the southern front and helped deny the creation of a strategic reserve.[38] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on September 22 that the Russian military deployed its “reserve army” (the 25th Combined Arms Army [CAA]) “roughly north of Bakhmut” to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts in eastern Ukraine.[39] It remains unclear if Ukrainian forces have enough reserve forces and combat power to continue conducting offensive operations in the south until the Russian defenses break to effectively exploit an operational breakthrough. It also remains unclear how heavily mined or well prepared the Russian positions south of the current battle area are.



The Ukrainian counteroffensive is in an extremely dynamic phase and ISW is not prepared to offer any confident forecast of events despite recent positive indicators. Recent promising reports of Ukrainian tactical progress, including breaking through some Russian field fortifications, in the Orikhiv area should not be read as a guarantee that Ukraine is on the cusp of a significant operational success. Observers should be patient with Ukraine's campaign design and should expect Ukraine’s counteroffensive to continue through winter 2023 and into spring 2024. Ukraine does not need to achieve a sudden and dramatic deep penetration to achieve success.

Key Takeaways:

  • Elements of three Russian divisions are actively defending against Ukrainian assaults around the Ukrainian salient in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces are attacking along three directions within the Orikhiv salient as of September 24.
  • Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces broke into Verbove on September 22 and continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.
  • Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove and could isolate the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka from its sister regiments in the Verbove area according to Russian sources.
  • Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.
  • The Russian military command may be ordering these counterattacks to buy time, but it is unclear how the Kremlin intends to use time bought at such a price.
  • The Russian sacrifice of combat power to hold every meter may alternatively be intended to support the Kremlin’s informational and hybrid warfare objectives.
  • The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders’ and officials’ attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin’s micromanagement.
  • Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 24.
 
In addition to Verbove, according to Ru sources, the 56th Ru Air Force would be near Novofedorivka (North East of Verbove) and perhaps in difficulty.

The Ukrainian armies need Novofedorivka/Pavlivs'ke to effectively supply Verbove if they take it. Additionally, the capture of these three villages threatens the series of villages on the T-08-15 towards Polohy with envelopment, especially if the Ukrainians push from Verbove and/or Novofedorivka towards Tarasivka, which would cut off the T-04-01 road. Tokmak-Polohy.

You have to see the configuration of the fortifications in this sector to see if it is really interesting but if the ISW map is correct, Tarasivka is the meeting point of the different Russian trench lines. If this point falls, they are behind the trenches and the only strongpoint on the road to Tokmak is a belt around Ocheretuvate. After that, obviously the Tokmak belt remains but I can see why taking Verbove and Novofedorivka could be interesting.

It's not going to be easy though.
 

Ukraine Situation Report: M109 Paladins Are Proving Too Wily For Russian Gunners​

With its ability to ‘shoot-and-scoot,’ Paladin self-propelled Howitzers are keeping enemies pinned down and surviving to fight another day.

U.S.-donated M109 A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers have played a big role in Ukraine's counteroffensive push south in the Robotyne-Verbove salient, according to the front line troops. The Paladin's ability to rapidly reposition after firing has made them a vexing challenge for Russian artillery troops.

Members of Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, which has taken part in the heaviest fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, say the Paladins, along with donated Leopard 2A6 tanks, have helped their forces breach Russia's dense defensive lines.

Ukraine Situation Report: M109 Paladins Are Proving Too Wily For Russian Gunners​

With its ability to ‘shoot-and-scoot,’ Paladin self-propelled Howitzers are keeping enemies pinned down and surviving to fight another day.

U.S.-donated M109 A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers have played a big role in Ukraine's counteroffensive push south in the Robotyne-Verbove salient, according to the front line troops. The Paladin's ability to rapidly reposition after firing has made them a vexing challenge for Russian artillery troops.

Members of Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, which has taken part in the heaviest fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, say the Paladins, along with donated Leopard 2A6 tanks, have helped their forces breach Russia's dense defensive lines.

The U.S. promised Ukraine 18 Paladins in January. Ukraine has also receive them from Italy, Lativa, Norway and the U.K. in a private purchase arrangement.

Though the Paladin can fire standard 155mm howitzer shells with a range up to 24 kilometers, the Ukrainians are using the weapons to hit targets at less than 10 km, according to members of the 47th, in an interview with Ukraine’s United24 Media news outlet.

With its ability to hit targets and move away before the Russians could return fire, the Paladins played a significant role in the liberation of Robotyne, according to the brigade.

The Paladins fired between 50 and 100 rounds per day, often using U.S. donated cluster muntions.
“When the infantry needs help, there’s no room for economy,” United24 reported.

The assessment about the Paladins' mobility largely concurs with one we reported on last week that was made by Russian Duma member Andrey Gurulev.

On Friday, Gurulev said on his Telegram channel that Ukrainian forces “have switched to squeeze-out tactics, they are massively using cluster shells, inflicting fire on the strong points of our units and assault groups. They have a lot of ammunition, they are trying to burn out absolutely everything.”

While it has improved its counter-battery warfare, with some positive results, Russian artillery is no match for the range and maneuverability of Ukrainian fires, in particular the Paladins which are far more nimble than towed artillery, Gurulev added at the time. From our report:

“Basically, all of [Ukraine’s] guns are installed in depth at a distance inaccessible to our artillery. An estimated two artillery brigades were concentrated in the ‘hottest’ directions, not counting the artillery of local brigades. We burned a lot of their towed artillery, they switched to using self-propelled guns. Our people say that it is very difficult, almost impossible, to catch them; after the second sighting shot they move and change position.”

The Leopards, meanwhile, are used to cover troops advancing in Bradley Fighting Vehicles through "Russia's most advanced and complex layered defenses," according to Vitaliy, a tank commander with the 47th who says he has survived anti-tank guided missiles, loitering munitions and mines. Compared to the Soviet-era T-72 tanks Vitaliy was used to before, the Leopard is "superior in speed, accuracy, sight capabilities and armor."

Though the counteroffensive may not be proceeding as swiftly as some had hoped, it appears that the donated armor is giving Ukraine an edge.
Before we head into the latest from Ukraine, The War Zone readers can catch up on our previous rolling coverage here.
 
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randomradio said:
Sure. But he will be 81-86 by then. He doesn't look like someone who's gonna make it to 80.
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Depends which version of him is the real one I guess. Medvedrunkclown will likely take over where he left off anyway.
randomradio said:
If the Chinese would whoop India, then they will face no problems with the US.
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So India is stronger than the US now. Okay.:LOL:
randomradio said:
That's 'cause you don't know basic maths.
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The facts all prove you wrong.
 
Footage has been published of the first strike of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet" on the Ukrainian Stridsvagn 122 tank made in Sweden. In total, Ukraine received 10 such vehicles. The Strv 122 tank is a Swedish modification of the German Leopard 2A5 tank. The main change was the addition of armor to the tank, with tungsten, ceramic and plastic elements. A new fire control system was also developed for the tank. As a result of the Lancet drone strike, near Stelmakhovka on the Kupyansk sector of the front, a fire started in the tank.

 
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