Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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- Start date
Footage of the first strike by the Russian Lancet-52 kamikaze drone on a Ukrainian 120mm M120 Rak self-propelled mortar, made in Poland. The M120 Rak self-propelled mortar has been produced since 2016 and was previously in service with the 44th separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As a result of the Lancet drone strike, a fire started in the self-propelled mortar, which completely destroyed the combat vehicle; the location of the video shooting and what happened to the crew are unknown.
A couple of russians getting ready to join the special military operation after the soviet stockpiles have finally been fully emptied:
Inflation makes meat cubes more and more expensive.
This is sanctions boosting the russian economy.
Inflation makes meat cubes more and more expensive.
Yes, obviously, the russian economy is going very very well.sanctions falter
This is sanctions boosting the russian economy.
so does exports
That was the monthly report for March. Here's the one for June:
Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export earnings drop 5% to lowest level in 2024
- In June 2024, Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export revenues saw a 5% month-on-month drop to EUR 664 mn per day.
- Revenues from seaborne crude oil were EUR 227 mn per day — at the same level as the previous month.
- A marginal drop in the price of Russian crude oil also saw revenues from crude oil via pipeline drop by 3% to EUR 84 mn per day.
- A similar trend was witnessed in Russian revenues from exports of seaborne oil products, which saw a 5% month-on-month decrease to EUR 209 mn per day.
- In June, Russian LNG export revenues decreased 9% to EUR 34 mn per day, and revenues from pipeline gas dropped 11% month-on-month to EUR 49 mn per day.
- Russian revenues from coal exports saw a 14% month-on-month drop to EUR 59 mn per day.
Exports to Hungary have just been cut off too.That was the monthly report for March. Here's the one for June:
Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export earnings drop 5% to lowest level in 2024
The one for July is not out yet, it'll be published in August.
- In June 2024, Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export revenues saw a 5% month-on-month drop to EUR 664 mn per day.
- Revenues from seaborne crude oil were EUR 227 mn per day — at the same level as the previous month.
- A marginal drop in the price of Russian crude oil also saw revenues from crude oil via pipeline drop by 3% to EUR 84 mn per day.
- A similar trend was witnessed in Russian revenues from exports of seaborne oil products, which saw a 5% month-on-month decrease to EUR 209 mn per day.
- In June, Russian LNG export revenues decreased 9% to EUR 34 mn per day, and revenues from pipeline gas dropped 11% month-on-month to EUR 49 mn per day.
- Russian revenues from coal exports saw a 14% month-on-month drop to EUR 59 mn per day.
is ukraine negotiating for exit ?
that 5% drop says sanctions have done wonders. They should continue it.That was the monthly report for March. Here's the one for June:
Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export earnings drop 5% to lowest level in 2024
The one for July is not out yet, it'll be published in August.
- In June 2024, Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export revenues saw a 5% month-on-month drop to EUR 664 mn per day.
- Revenues from seaborne crude oil were EUR 227 mn per day — at the same level as the previous month.
- A marginal drop in the price of Russian crude oil also saw revenues from crude oil via pipeline drop by 3% to EUR 84 mn per day.
- A similar trend was witnessed in Russian revenues from exports of seaborne oil products, which saw a 5% month-on-month decrease to EUR 209 mn per day.
- In June, Russian LNG export revenues decreased 9% to EUR 34 mn per day, and revenues from pipeline gas dropped 11% month-on-month to EUR 49 mn per day.
- Russian revenues from coal exports saw a 14% month-on-month drop to EUR 59 mn per day.
Don't worry, sanctions will continue.
russia reminds its brothers from the Global South what it really thinks of them:
Also:
www.theguardian.com
"The significance of a russian life is exaggerated" --russian propaganda
And now, place your bets:
russia reminds its brothers from the Global South what it really thinks of them:
Also:
‘They turn our farms into rape centres’: Russian mercenaries accused of abuse in Central African Republic
A rise in sexual violence means food prices have leapt in CAR as women and girls say they fear working in the fields
"The significance of a russian life is exaggerated" --russian propaganda
And now, place your bets:
- Smoking incident?
- Mysterious falling debris?
- Maintenance budget for the last 30 years has been spent on yachts in the Caribbeans?
La Russie confrontée à une surchauffe de son économie
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Russia's economy is overheating
The Russian Central Bank has just raised interest rates to 18% on Friday to stem the spiral of inflation. Public spending is increasing rapidly to finance the war effort, pulling growth down in the short term.
The economy is going too fast, so it had to be slowed down. The Russian central bank announced on Friday that it had raised interest rates by 200 basis points to 18%. Inflation had risen too high for the monetary institution to do nothing. Prices rose by 8.6% year-on-year in Russia in June, and are set to continue accelerating over the coming months.
While the central bank was previously expecting inflation to be around 4.5% at the end of the year, it is now anticipating a rise in prices of around 6.5% next December, after taking into account the tightening of monetary conditions decided on Friday. "The overheating of the economy remains considerable", said the Bank in its press release.
Public spending and wage rises
So what's going on? Imbalances are building up in the Russian economy as a result of the war in Ukraine. Defence spending has soared, as have the salaries of workers in this industry, in order to attract them as well as the salaries of soldiers who have left for the front. Public spending, financed in part by rising oil and gas prices, rose by 19% in the first five months of the year.
This is fuelling household incomes, and therefore consumption, but also, by knock-on effect, inflation. At the same time, however, many Russians have left the country as a result of the war, and the labour market has become much tighter. The unemployment rate is particularly low, at 2.6% in April. Once again, employees are benefiting, with salaries up 22% year-on-year in March. But, mechanically, inflation is also feeling the pinch.
The capacity utilisation rate of Russian manufacturers is close to an all-time high. And to meet this demand for military equipment and consumer goods, Russian companies have continued to take on debt to invest and produce, despite high interest rates. Property loans at preferential rates have also soared in recent quarters, contributing significantly to the rise in property prices.
In short, this inflationary spiral had to be stopped. However, it is not certain that this rise in interest rates will be enough. The governor of the central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is not ruling out a further increase in interest rates in the coming months.
Resilient growth
The IMF is forecasting Russian GDP growth of 3.2% this year. A good performance, then. But, as economists from the Bank of Finland summarise in a study, "Russia has devoted large sums of money and industrial resources to maintaining its war effort, leaving fewer resources available to meet other economic and social needs. Even though production is increasing to meet the needs of the war effort, economic imbalances are accumulating".
Not only is the Russian productive fabric not meeting the needs of the population but also those of the army, but it is unlikely that this will continue indefinitely.
In an opinion piece published in mid-week, eight finance ministers from European countries, mainly from Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, said that "even if Russian GDP is growing, the economy is increasingly geared towards the war industry, supported by major fiscal stimulus measures. This is not an inexhaustible source of growth, nor the sign of a stable economy".
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Russia's economy is overheating
The Russian Central Bank has just raised interest rates to 18% on Friday to stem the spiral of inflation. Public spending is increasing rapidly to finance the war effort, pulling growth down in the short term.
The economy is going too fast, so it had to be slowed down. The Russian central bank announced on Friday that it had raised interest rates by 200 basis points to 18%. Inflation had risen too high for the monetary institution to do nothing. Prices rose by 8.6% year-on-year in Russia in June, and are set to continue accelerating over the coming months.
While the central bank was previously expecting inflation to be around 4.5% at the end of the year, it is now anticipating a rise in prices of around 6.5% next December, after taking into account the tightening of monetary conditions decided on Friday. "The overheating of the economy remains considerable", said the Bank in its press release.
Public spending and wage rises
So what's going on? Imbalances are building up in the Russian economy as a result of the war in Ukraine. Defence spending has soared, as have the salaries of workers in this industry, in order to attract them as well as the salaries of soldiers who have left for the front. Public spending, financed in part by rising oil and gas prices, rose by 19% in the first five months of the year.
This is fuelling household incomes, and therefore consumption, but also, by knock-on effect, inflation. At the same time, however, many Russians have left the country as a result of the war, and the labour market has become much tighter. The unemployment rate is particularly low, at 2.6% in April. Once again, employees are benefiting, with salaries up 22% year-on-year in March. But, mechanically, inflation is also feeling the pinch.
The capacity utilisation rate of Russian manufacturers is close to an all-time high. And to meet this demand for military equipment and consumer goods, Russian companies have continued to take on debt to invest and produce, despite high interest rates. Property loans at preferential rates have also soared in recent quarters, contributing significantly to the rise in property prices.
In short, this inflationary spiral had to be stopped. However, it is not certain that this rise in interest rates will be enough. The governor of the central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is not ruling out a further increase in interest rates in the coming months.
Resilient growth
The IMF is forecasting Russian GDP growth of 3.2% this year. A good performance, then. But, as economists from the Bank of Finland summarise in a study, "Russia has devoted large sums of money and industrial resources to maintaining its war effort, leaving fewer resources available to meet other economic and social needs. Even though production is increasing to meet the needs of the war effort, economic imbalances are accumulating".
Not only is the Russian productive fabric not meeting the needs of the population but also those of the army, but it is unlikely that this will continue indefinitely.
In an opinion piece published in mid-week, eight finance ministers from European countries, mainly from Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, said that "even if Russian GDP is growing, the economy is increasingly geared towards the war industry, supported by major fiscal stimulus measures. This is not an inexhaustible source of growth, nor the sign of a stable economy".
Instead of fixing itself, russia spends all its resources on breaking Ukraine.
Of course, fixing itself would require for russia to get rid of its corruption-centric system; and as a country that loves corruption more than anything else (remember that the invasion of Ukraine was motivated by russia's desire to protect corruption), that's pretty much impossible.
5/ "It is obvious that on 22 February 2024, the long flight of the Tu-160M aircraft No. 801 with the President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces on board could have ended in a terrible tragedy that served as a trigger for worldwide nuclear Armageddon."
6/ The letter expresses "serious concerns due to the unsatisfactory technical condition of one of the main carriers of Russian nuclear weapons." An investigation found that the accident was caused by the state-owned UEC's failure to properly maintain the aircraft's NK-32 engines.
7/ According to the letter, "JSC UEC, possibly under pressure, is avoiding performing work to maintain the good technical condition of strategic bomber engines, which is confirmed by the discovery of up to 10 more faulty NK-32 engines as of 01/07/2024."
8/ It warns that this poses "a potential threat of disrupting the combat readiness of a significant part of the Tu-160M strategic bombers." The Tu-160M fleet forms part of the aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad, along with the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers.
9/ The letter continues: "Perhaps due to the lack of engine calibration test data, at the request of UEC JSC, restrictions for certain flight modes were introduced into the operating manual for the aircraft, engine and electronic engine control system, …
10/ … which could lead to catastrophic consequences, as shown by the accident on 11 April 2024."
According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, rather than repairing engines, UEC has instead been substituting them with units in storage and those removed from other aircraft.
11/ It's possible that this was caused by a common scam in Russia's chronically corrupt defence sector – fulfilling contracts superficially or not at all, while corrupt executives pocket the difference between the cost of the contract and the substandard actual work.
12/ The letter complains that "JSC UEC, instead of admitting its guilt, taking emergency measures to eliminate the causes of the accident and prevent something similar in the future, through administrative pressure and, possibly, financial motivation, …
13/ … has been hiding the causes and consequences of the accident from you, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and citizens of Russia for almost three months."
14/ Possibly as a result of the letter, VChK-OGPU reports that Russia's Presidential Administration has forced the Prosecutor General's Office, the Investigative Committee, and the Russian Ministry of Defence to open an investigation.
15/ It alleges that the company and the state-owned Rostec State Corporation have persistently escaped legal consequences for "multi-billion dollar damages" due to their protection by government figures after previous air crashes.
16/ However, the circumstances of the latest incident – with its proximity to Putin himself and its implications for Russia's nuclear triad – may have made serious consequences unavoidable for UEC. /end
Of course, fixing itself would require for russia to get rid of its corruption-centric system; and as a country that loves corruption more than anything else (remember that the invasion of Ukraine was motivated by russia's desire to protect corruption), that's pretty much impossible.
5/ "It is obvious that on 22 February 2024, the long flight of the Tu-160M aircraft No. 801 with the President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces on board could have ended in a terrible tragedy that served as a trigger for worldwide nuclear Armageddon."
6/ The letter expresses "serious concerns due to the unsatisfactory technical condition of one of the main carriers of Russian nuclear weapons." An investigation found that the accident was caused by the state-owned UEC's failure to properly maintain the aircraft's NK-32 engines.
7/ According to the letter, "JSC UEC, possibly under pressure, is avoiding performing work to maintain the good technical condition of strategic bomber engines, which is confirmed by the discovery of up to 10 more faulty NK-32 engines as of 01/07/2024."
8/ It warns that this poses "a potential threat of disrupting the combat readiness of a significant part of the Tu-160M strategic bombers." The Tu-160M fleet forms part of the aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad, along with the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers.
9/ The letter continues: "Perhaps due to the lack of engine calibration test data, at the request of UEC JSC, restrictions for certain flight modes were introduced into the operating manual for the aircraft, engine and electronic engine control system, …
10/ … which could lead to catastrophic consequences, as shown by the accident on 11 April 2024."
According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, rather than repairing engines, UEC has instead been substituting them with units in storage and those removed from other aircraft.
11/ It's possible that this was caused by a common scam in Russia's chronically corrupt defence sector – fulfilling contracts superficially or not at all, while corrupt executives pocket the difference between the cost of the contract and the substandard actual work.
12/ The letter complains that "JSC UEC, instead of admitting its guilt, taking emergency measures to eliminate the causes of the accident and prevent something similar in the future, through administrative pressure and, possibly, financial motivation, …
13/ … has been hiding the causes and consequences of the accident from you, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and citizens of Russia for almost three months."
14/ Possibly as a result of the letter, VChK-OGPU reports that Russia's Presidential Administration has forced the Prosecutor General's Office, the Investigative Committee, and the Russian Ministry of Defence to open an investigation.
15/ It alleges that the company and the state-owned Rostec State Corporation have persistently escaped legal consequences for "multi-billion dollar damages" due to their protection by government figures after previous air crashes.
16/ However, the circumstances of the latest incident – with its proximity to Putin himself and its implications for Russia's nuclear triad – may have made serious consequences unavoidable for UEC. /end
Seems like mumblings around a UK land-based nuclear deterrent.