If Russia is indeed planning to make India an export hub for Su-30, then this line could end up building a lot more than 12 jets.
Although, the market for Su-30 is shrinking and fast. Indonesia, Malaysia and possibly even Vietnam are going/may go for Western ac.
That leaves Algeria and perhaps Mynamar as existing operators who might want more Su-30.
Only new customer in the short to medium term in my view is Iran. Plus any new Su-35 sales would undercut the Su-30 market.
If India indeed seeks to emerge as an alternative to Russia by pushing its products in the export markets , it seriously risks attracting CAATSA .
Moreover if it seeks to sell to international pariahs like Iran it'd be a double whammy. I very much doubt we'd be doing the latter even if we should not be involved in the former.
It's one thing for us to break free of Russian controls quite another to emerge as a re exporter of Russian goods.
And people laughed at me when I said few years back that Su-30MKI UPG. will counter J-20 and other stealth fighters. With Virupaksha, New gen IRST & MUM-T, MKI is all set to rule the sky for many more decades to come.
We also need to order at least 40-50(or more) MKI UPG.s from HAL, which can be delivered parallel to the upgrade program in-order to stop our reducing squadron strength. Re-starting the production line for just 12 jets is one of the most stupidest things I've ever heard.
If the proposed ( by HAL ) additional 3-4 squadrons apart from the obvious 12 nos are going to be the standard MKI's , the entire exercise is pointless.
At the same time , how's it realistically possible HAL can deliver all the proposed 3-4 squadrons ( plus the 12 nos ) in Super Sukhoi or UPG configuration is beyond me when the IAF itself has gone on the record to state that the initial exercise for the certification would take 7 years & the entire upgradation for 80 nos MKI would take an additional 8 years after that .
I wonder how much of the above conundrum regarding the timelines are due to budgetary constraints & how much due to the normal gestation period / delay in the realisation of technology ?
Besides how're the IAF going to handle fresh procurements of the ~ 200 Mk-1a's , 100-200 Mk-2 , both versions of the AMCA & lest we forget "the MRFA ," apart from the upgradations of the MKI which itself costs a bomb . Having said that , we've also no news on the status of the other 200 odd MKIs in our inventory w.r.t the upgradation .
Now it's all very well to expect our budgets would increase as our economy grows like RST who duly parrots the same line here whenever the opportunity provides itself but neither has the UPA nor has the NDA given any inclination to exponentially increase the defence budgets in the present or the recent past .
Why should it be any different in the future unless we get another huge kick up our arses in the aftermath of our war with China which would be more of the usual - deja vu all over again ?!
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