Shishumar and Sindhughosh Class of Submarines : Pictures and Discussions
- Thread starter Himanshu
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I think we had this discussion a few years ago wherein I had specifically mentioned, we did the air conditioning of the workshop exclusively erected to construct the Scorpenes. The said workshop was to have come up in 2011-12. In the event it came online in 2016-17.Prior to this the first 2 Scorpenes were constructed in the first line which is now used exclusively for maintenance purposes.
I remember. More workshops can be built. And MDL has been in an expansion mode for decades and still expanding. But getting all the fixtures and jigs for submarine construction is easily traced, and there's no such thing done yet, especially since all of it has to be imported from France.
What MDL has done is create real estate that can handle more submarine production, but they don't have the facilities or manpower to actually build a second sub in parallel. That has to be done from scratch and a whole new crew has to be trained for such a purpose. I suppose this was done for the sake of bagging the P-75I contract.
I will share with you what the senior guys at MDL told me then. If need be they can construct two submarines in parallel once the workshop is ready. This was in mid 2014 when we became involved. Subsequently the systems were commissioned in late 2016 as opposed to end FY 2014-15 - a delay of nearly 2 years.
Moreover the days of expansion at MDL is over.There's no real estate left.The IN / MDL is scouting for land northwards of Uran & south of Ratnagiri to shift production facilities out of MDL reducing MDL to only some kind of Maintenance hub .
I don't believe the HSL refit covers all associated costs of the full refit compared to this new deal.
INS Sindhurakshak explosion: Indian navy loses one of its frontline submarines
INS Sindhurakshak, a 16-year-old diesel-electric submarine, was handed over to India in January this year after nearly two years of overhaul and refitting in Russia at the cost of 480 crore rupees. It was expected to serve the navy for at least 10 more years.
So the actual cost of refit is pretty much the same.
This was just a dream they had. Same dreams HAL also has about building Rafale, LCA, MWF, AMCA, FGFA etc by themselves.
As I said, if they actually had a second submarine line, the delivery times would have been compressed to just 3 years instead of 6-7 years. When MDL signed up first, the delivery schedule was 2012 to 2017, ie 1 sub every year. What they plan to achieve now is 2017-22, pretty much the same if all things go according to plan.
In 2013, they planned to expand the line in order to compress the delivery schedule as well as reduce the delivery time to just 2017-19, which obviously never happened. It's because they needed the additional order of 3 to make it viable, which they assumed they will get, along with the P-75I, since they were a monopoly. They basically dreamed of building all of the navy's 24 DE subs.
Most DPSU folks can only speak of their plans, not what the MoD has actually planned, so take the stuff they say with a lot of salt. Only what the MoD announces is generally correct information.
Anyway, they have expanded their real estate to handle 10 ships from an earlier 8, and 11 subs from the earlier 6, for outfitting. But that's mainly real estate and some primary fixed equipment like cranes, not the actual sub construction jigs and fixtures that the OEM provides for the Scorpene.
Yeah. They are gonna expand at Nhava.
I think you aren't factoring a few things here. One of the reasons production wasn't full stream, from what I understand, is the fact that the IN / MoD were waiting for the indigenous AIP to be certified for inclusion in the last 2 subs. I believe somewhere around 2016 , the IN / MoD took the call to continue building the last 2 subs without AIP. Secondly, there lies the issue of what does one do with a fully trained crew without further orders. Which is why MDL was / is purposely going slow much to the chagrin of IN with MoD playing the bystander. Now this isn't hearsay. Most of this was discussed in my presence by senior MDL staff in review meetings held for construction of the workshop.
I've no doubt that if MoD were to renew the order for 3-6 Scorpenes, all the boats will be in the water ready for commissioning in half the time it took MDL to construct the first complement.
DPSUs slow down production in order to earn interest from advance payments, which they then show as profits.
Defence PSUs profiting on advances
If two lines are functional, which is impossible since nothing new was signed with France, then they would have crossed the MoD's bank guarantee deadline a long, long time ago. You can't simply take the same amount of time for delivery after doubling production.
Production will definitely be faster, but production to delivery of 3 new subs will take 7-10 years regardless. Metal cutting to launch took 9 years for each of the subs, which can easily be reduced to less than half. Launch to commissioning takes 2.5-3 years. It won't magically reduce unless the workforce increases by a significant margin, which they won't do, since it makes no economic sense for just 3 submarines.
Procurement of raw materials = 2 years
Metal cutting to launch = 3 years (This is where the original delay came from)
Launch to commission = 2.5 years
So that's 7.5 years for the first sub. Each sub follows every year after that.
When MDL says 7-10 years, they are giving themselves a buffer of 2.5 years for the metal cutting to launch stage, which is when they can earn 3 years' worth of free interest with a very relaxed work schedule since most of the advance payment would have already happened by then. Even the launch stage can be stretched to earn more. So it can even be stretched to 13 years for all 3 subs if necessary.
I think either I wasn't clear in my posts or you have got the wrong idea. I'm saying as of now there are two lines available at MDL for production of subs. That doesn't translate to both these lines are being utilised. Usually MDL functions in one shift to build these subs which towards the end of the month can go up to 2-3 shifts depending on the deadline to be achieved. A sr welder at MDL there makes more than a commander of the IN. That's how it's gamed out there .
Your project scheduling details while appreciated, I'd still go with what the top brass of the MDL stated that if need be all 6 Scorpenes in the second tranche will be in the waters for commissioning within a decade. May be even less than that.
SSN lease deal has many side-deals not made public which are extremely important for our SSN program to progress. I guess paying $3 billion for a Akula class SSN means we technically might have bought the sub.
Lets see what happens in 2022 at the end of INS Chakra 2 lease.
I already told ya, I agree with you about some of this. I even told you once that MDL has only 1 shift. Let me make it more clear. They have two sub lines, but they do not have two Scorpene lines. There's a massive difference between the two.
To produce a foreign sub, you need two kinds of equipment, one that you invest in yourself, and the other is provided by the OEM. So MDL has invested in whatever they can for a second sub line, which they can use to even make Kilos or Arihants or even Virginias, but they lack the ability to make Scorpenes "specifically" in parallel since they have OEM supplied equipment only for 1 Scorpene line.
As for workforce, yes, they can compress delivery by working in shifts, but that requires training a workforce capable of that, which they will not invest in. Imagine you train a workforce for 3 shifts, but you never get any more submarine orders ever in the future, say L&T bags the order for 6 P-75I followed by 6 more, while MDL can only refit old subs. Then what's the point in expanding the workforce? Workforce can only be expanded once the order comes in, not before. Any extra workforce will then have to be used in other projects instead, considering there is vacancy there. Or else they will just sit around doing nothing, since it's a govt job anyway.
But a larger workforce also means quicker deliveries, hence eating into their interest-based profit-making machine.
As for 2-3 shifts, that's by transferring workforce from other projects towards sub construction. This is an age-old tactic which is not sustainable and only done in emergencies. It also involves a lot of overtime work and overtime pay, which is actually misused by the workforce to earn money, but equally the quality of work deteriorates. Look, they won't openly tell you these things since you are not part of their "inner circle", but their system of working is absolutely horrible. The only reason these DPSUs survive is because they are monopolies and unionised, nothing else.
In truth, given enough orders and workforce, a submarine can be delivered in less than 1.5 years after it's laid down. If the IN orders 15 subs from MDL today, MDL can easily deliver all 15 subs within 10 years, let alone 6, with just 1 line. Hell, the Soviet Union made our Kilo class in just 6-7 months.
Just a few broad strokes post which you can treat the discussion closed from my end. A second line automatically pre supposes not just availability of real estate but also skilled manpower in significant numbers. The issue of additional jigs & fixtures whether imported or manufactured in-house or sourced from a local vendor isn't going to cause an abnormal delay. Moreover, I can't reproduce ad verbatim the entire series of conversations I've had with them for reasons which should be understood. One last detail. The workshop in question has the ability to manufacture two subs simultaneously. The third line ( the original one) where the first two Scorpenes were manufactured is a separate one. You can say, if push came to shove, that can be used as an auxiliary line. I'd end this post on the note that it's within the capacities of MDL to produce more Scorpenes - all 6 of them if the order were confirmed today & get them in the waters within 5 years for sea trials to quote the Rear Admiral chairing the meeting.
I added a further 4-5 years to the above just to sound credible & so that ppl don't accuse me of hyper optimism.
Extremely efficient this MDL is then. HAL won't expand a line without orders, but MDL will.
Where's the paper trail? Expanding a line will see announcements from both Indian MoD and French DCNS.
Okay, cheers. But they are more than likely not going to get more Scorpene orders. IN is interested in far more advanced subs now. They can build that if they get selected.
The SSN deal was a rip-off, in a sense, but not on purpose.
If a new deal was negotiated, without considering the existence of the old deal, then it would have been considerably cheaper, considering the exchange rate.
Similarly, if we buy more MKIs today, we will be paying $40M each, based on the price negotiated back in the late 90s, but the MKIs cost no more than $20M in Russia today. Similarly, the PAK FA costs only $36M. So a new deal would definitely be cheaper, but will take much longer, perhaps years.
So the amount we are paying is a 100% extra profit over the previous deal once they convert the forex to rubles.
Of course, it's up to the Russians whatever price they want to set, they are the only supplier of SSNs after all.
Just that 1.8 billion is literally scamming us.
The latest Improved Kilo Class deal with Vietnam for 6 improved Kilo, establishment of base and training, everything costed little over 2 billion USD.
Even as Algeria is trying to buy more Kilos, according to Russians in 2018, construction cost of a new built Kilo was 350 million USD.
Now even if 1 take 400 million USD per boat (3x400 million = 1.2 billion USD) for 877 and not 636M built in late 80s , which will have a life of 10 years, it will be a rip off.
When our first Kilo received the overhaul and Klub capability along with our sonar , it costed 80 million USD per boat.
So say 100 million per boat, thats 600 million and leasing/buying costs , say 100 million per boat more. Thats still less than 1 billion.
Anything over that figure, if the deal actually gets signed will be corruption.
These initial numbers do not hold any value. It even goes half after negotiations (In case of last Talwar). Reading more into it is futile.
On the SSN contract, Do you have an official PR or CAG report to judge the number by the specifics? or even confirmation of the number? No.
Looks like MRLC of INS Shishumar is ongoing at MDL.
https://mazagondock.in/writereaddata/tenders/4499003162020100003AMTender-1300001474.pdf
https://mazagondock.in/writereaddata/tenders/4499003162020100003AMTender-1300001474.pdf
His idea of buying too many 2nd hand subs is not good. The whole fleet will come in for replacement too early. And it is subject to the availability to enough second hand subs. 3 extra are enough. 2 will make up for the loss of 1 sub and 1 gifted away to Myanmar. Two more submarines will leave service pretty soon.