MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

What is your favorite for MMRCA 2.0 ?

  • F-35 Blk 4

    Votes: 28 12.3%
  • Rafale F4

    Votes: 180 78.9%
  • Eurofighter Typhoon T3

    Votes: 3 1.3%
  • Gripen E/F

    Votes: 6 2.6%
  • F-16 B70

    Votes: 1 0.4%
  • F-18 SH

    Votes: 10 4.4%
  • F-15EX

    Votes: 7 3.1%
  • Mig-35

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    228

Bon Plan

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I was typing the same..

Either Make in India or Nothing..

Btw this means Rafale M if ordered also will be delayed?
No. See the Egyt first deal : we take french Rafale on the line to adat it to Egypt needs.
See Greece and Croatia : we take birds from the french air force to sell it.
See Caesar gun for Ukraine...
We really want to help the sales to our friends, and India is one of the most stronger and older.
What are chances Tejas getting Meteor?
Time window between uttam aesa & SFDR maybe 3-4 years max.
Meteor? maybe only on a pure indian weapon system. ie with UTTAM
 
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Bon Plan

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Anyways, Turkey is looking for alternatives too. What happens when they to place a Rafale order say by next year end ?
The relionship between France and Turkey are far too bad for that. Not a single chance.
Turkey is dealing with Eurofighter, but it's a only way to make pressure on uncle Sam for F16V. EF2000 is not a plan B, but à plan C or D. Rafale is even not a plan Z.
 

Bon Plan

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Can France stop Qatar from sending its Rafales to Turkey on a long deputations ? Like the NATO air policing missions in Iceland and Baltics ?
No french weapon can be selled without our permission. In case of we just have to stop the spare parts delivery, and maybe cut some internet link for maintenance (a sort of french ODIN ? I really don't know if it's the case on Rafale) to halt in a couple of weeks the birds.
 

A Person

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(a sort of french ODIN ? I really don't know if it's the case on Rafale)
Nope. Every customer country gets the maintenance software and runs it on their own systems. What we can do in case of unauthorized resale is simply not provide spares, updates, or any other form of support to the rogue buyer and probably the rogue seller too (in case they haven't sold all their fleet).
 

Bon Plan

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India will not get any additional Rafale anyway; American-funded NGOs have done their job to ensure it won't happen.
Sure not. India paid a lot for dedicated improvements, I doubt it's only for 36 units.
And the error oh having a too small fleet of M2000 (as Mig29) will not be made twice. For India 72 units is a minimum. I said for a while that I see a final between 72 and 108 (only for IAF. IN is another thing).
 

Bon Plan

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France eyes billion-dollar warplane deals in new strategic partnership with India, UAE


  • France has already sold Rafale fighter jets to India and the UAE but proposed a joint programme for the aircraft under its new trilateral partnership
  • The grouping comes as the countries seek to preserve their ‘strategic autonomy’ amid the US-China rivalry, and follows Australia’s snub of French submarines in favour of the Aukus deal

A French Rafale jet fighter takes off from France’s aircraft carrier Charles-de-Gaulle. Photo: AP

A French Rafale jet fighter takes off from France’s aircraft carrier Charles-de-Gaulle. Photo: AP

France could soon receive billions of dollars of new military orders from its recent formation of a trilateral strategic partnership with India and the United Arab Emirates, analysts have said.

The three-way partnership between the long-standing allies, launched at a meeting of their foreign ministers in New York on September 20, aims to boost maritime security, blue economy and regional connectivity, and food and energy security in the Indian Ocean.
France, India and the UAE were motivated to join hands to preserve their “strategic autonomy” amid diplomatic pressure to side with the US against China, analysts said.

“These middle powers want to retain their own strategic space to manoeuvre amid sharpening great power contestation,” said Harsh V. Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.

“They are reluctant to be part of any one bloc, so enhancing ties among themselves is a good option to retain their strategic autonomy,” he added.

Having already sold large numbers of advanced Rafale multirole fighters to India and the UAE, France proposed the formation of a joint programme for the warplane under their new trilateral partnership, India’s Economic Times newspaper reported after the three foreign ministers met last month.
The new trilateral partnership “certainly helped France’s chances with the Rafale with India”, said Jean-Loup Samaan, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.

Previous Rafale sales to India and the UAE could “pave the way to closer trilateral cooperation in terms of training and joint air exercises”, he said.

Analysts said the trilateral partnership follows France’s lingering sense of betrayal at being unceremoniously deprived in September 2021 of a €35 billion (US$34.3 billion) deal to supply submarines to Australia. The deal went to the US and Britain as part of the trilateral Aukus alliance among the UK, US and Australia.

This persuaded French President Emmanuel Macron to suddenly make concessions on the stalled sale of Rafales to the UAE, leading to the surprise signing of a €17 billion (US$16.6 billion) contract for 80 of the warplanes last December.

Days later, the UAE froze negotiations to buy the F-35 stealth fighters from the US, amid diplomatic tensions arising in part from American pressure on Abu Dhabi to scale back its relationship with China, its second-largest trading partner after India.

Emirati officials rejected Washington’s claims that it had forced the UAE to stop the construction of a suspected Chinese military facility at Port Khalifa.

“The Aukus crisis and the frozen F-35 negotiations gave credence to the initial argument that France, India and the UAE need to build their own foreign policy framework,” Samaan said.

India is evaluating Dassault Aviation’s Rafale, the F-21 variant of Lockheed Martin’s F16, and Sweden’s Saab FAS39 Gripen for a contract for 36 warplanes that would boost the size of its air force to 35 squadrons – still seven short of its targeted strength of 42.

India acquired 36 Rafales between 2019 and July 2022 under a €7.87 billion (US$7.7 billion) contract signed in 2016. The Rafales were deployed to Indian airbases near its disputed 3,488km border with China after their forces clashed in the Himalayan territory of Ladakh in mid-2020.

India is also trialling the Rafale’s naval variant against Boeing’s F/A-18F Super Hornet amid plans to acquire 30 planes for deployment on its first indigenously made aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, which was commissioned in August.

Pant of King’s College said France, India and the UAE would place “a great deal of emphasis” on the co-development of their Rafale programmes.

He said France is a “much less complicated choice” for India than the US, but America’s range of defence manufacturing far outstrips it.

“So wherever possible, India will go to France, but the US will also remain a key player,” Pant said.

France operates a naval base in Abu Dhabi, from where an EU task force patrols shipping lanes that carry the majority of the world’s oil exports and trade between Asia and Europe.

France is also the only Western power that conducts joint naval patrols with India.

The US has acted as the fulcrum for multilateral partnerships formed in recent years in the Indo-Pacific and Middle East regions.

India is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with the US, Australia and Japan, while the UAE is a member of the Abraham Accords bloc along with the US, Israel, Bahrain and Morocco.

India and the UAE are both partners in the I2U2 partnership with Israel and the US.

France, India and the UAE will remain important partners of the US, but “a close partnership among themselves will help them in better managing their ties with Washington”, Pant said.

But France’s competitive edge in securing further military deals from India and the UAE may be fleeting, analysts said.

“Those types of sales can be extremely volatile,” Samaan said. “If tomorrow, tensions with China escalate, countries like the UAE and India may consider that for operational and diplomatic reasons, it’s better to be equipped with American platforms.”

And what about a germano french SCAF cancelation and a reborn 6th gen aircraft intitiativ between these 3 players ?
 

A Person

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Sure not. India paid a lot for dedicated improvements, I doubt it's only for 36 units.
And the error oh having a too small fleet of M2000 (as Mig29) will not be made twice. For India 72 units is a minimum. I said for a while that I see a final between 72 and 108 (only for IAF. IN is another thing).
For India, I see a final amount that will be either 36 (if they keep wallowing in stagnation as seems their current tack) or 200+ (if they come to their senses). Neither 72 nor 108 will be enough for the needs of the IAF. Remember, they're got over 260 Su-30MKI. We're not talking about a small air force with small fleets. So they've got the choice between staying as "not enough", or actually committing to "as many as needed". Wikipedia numbers show 54 MiG-21, 65 MiG-29, 51 Mirage 2000, and 130 Jaguar. That's 300 combat aircraft that need to be replaced. Now you can upgrade the MiG-21 to Tejas mk1A, and I suppose the Mirage 2000 to Tejas mk2, but for the rest you'll want Rafale; the Tejas is just not in the right category to replace the Jaguar or the MiG-29. So that's about 200 extra Rafale they need, at least.
 

Bon Plan

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For India, I see a final amount that will be either 36 (if they keep wallowing in stagnation as seems their current tack) or 200+ (if they come to their senses). Neither 72 nor 108 will be enough for the needs of the IAF. Remember, they're got over 260 Su-30MKI. We're not talking about a small air force with small fleets. So they've got the choice between staying as "not enough", or actually committing to "as many as needed". Wikipedia numbers show 54 MiG-21, 65 MiG-29, 51 Mirage 2000, and 130 Jaguar. That's 300 combat aircraft that need to be replaced. Now you can upgrade the MiG-21 to Tejas mk1A, and I suppose the Mirage 2000 to Tejas mk2, but for the rest you'll want Rafale; the Tejas is just not in the right category to replace the Jaguar or the MiG-29. So that's about 200 extra Rafale they need, at least.
I think politically it is and will be difficult to purchase such quantity of foreign weapons.
Tejas and Tejas mk2 will come in quantity. AMCA will be late, for sure, but be a reality. and so on.
India will become self sufficient.
I will be pleased to see 200 Rafale in India, but it's only a dream as for now.
 

randomradio

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So, ASQR late 2022. RFP mid 2024. We can extrapolate the rest: Evaluations complete late 2026. Finalists chosen 2028. Selection 2030. BAFO 2032. Signature 2034?

That's the optimist timeline, anyway.

Wouldn't give importance to that channel, some right, mostly fake. ASQR's finalisation is enough for RFP release.
To stay at around 31 squadrons, as now, you would need more than 3 Rafale squadrons by 2028, which is only possible with a signature before 2024.

I'll personally be very surprised if such a deal goes through with MRFA in parallel.
 

randomradio

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India should have gone for another 36 Rafale back at some point in 2019-2021, same standard as the initial batch. MMRCA2/MRFA just takes too long.

GoI wanted an order for 90 jets, but the IAF insisted on MRFA. The IAF's method is better. It has greater chances of success, they can even control the total numbers, while GoI's plan could end with just 90.
 

randomradio

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Because if all the 114 are made in France without any ToT, or re investment in India, the airframes, the Weapons package, and Service support can be signed for around 15-16 billion USD.

We can't have that. For such a large number, we need local production to ensure we can operate the jets however long we want to. We need control over supplies during war as well.

But the moment you licence assemble something already made in France, the cost will double. That 16 billion will become 32 billion.

Licensing is better, it's cheaper over the long run, even if some costs are higher. And it won't be double, unless France's economy collapses, like Russia's did.
 

randomradio

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For India, I see a final amount that will be either 36 (if they keep wallowing in stagnation as seems their current tack) or 200+ (if they come to their senses). Neither 72 nor 108 will be enough for the needs of the IAF. Remember, they're got over 260 Su-30MKI. We're not talking about a small air force with small fleets. So they've got the choice between staying as "not enough", or actually committing to "as many as needed". Wikipedia numbers show 54 MiG-21, 65 MiG-29, 51 Mirage 2000, and 130 Jaguar. That's 300 combat aircraft that need to be replaced. Now you can upgrade the MiG-21 to Tejas mk1A, and I suppose the Mirage 2000 to Tejas mk2, but for the rest you'll want Rafale; the Tejas is just not in the right category to replace the Jaguar or the MiG-29. So that's about 200 extra Rafale they need, at least.

Rafale will not "replace" any of those aircraft. We have empty squadrons at the moment, about 11-15 squadrons before 2030. All the older jets will be replaced by LCAs, 123 LCA Mk1/As and up to 200 LCA Mk2s.

We need 26 new squadrons by 2042, and only 4 have been ordered and are in the process of launching 3 programs (MRFA, Mk2, AMCA Mk1) for 14 squadrons. 8 more squadrons pending, not counting the expansion of the IAF to 50+ squadrons.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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Rafale will not "replace" any of those aircraft. We have empty squadrons at the moment, about 11-15 squadrons before 2030. All the older jets will be replaced by LCAs, 123 LCA Mk1/As and up to 200 LCA Mk2s.

We need 26 new squadrons by 2042, and only 4 have been ordered and are in the process of launching 3 programs (MRFA, Mk2, AMCA Mk1) for 14 squadrons. 8 more squadrons pending, not counting the expansion of the IAF to 50+ squadrons.
323 LCA? In India it will take 35 years to produce.
 

randomradio

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323 LCA? In India it will take 35 years to produce.

16 LCA Mk1As and 16 Mk2s per year, in sequence. New lines will be created for Mk2, apparently in Bangalore and/or Nashik (MKI line). Mk1A lines will be used for exports or repurposed for Mk2 exports. Production for the IAF could go on until the early 2040s.

So the first 123 jets already ordered will finish delivery by 2029. Mk2 deliveries from 2030 onwards will take 12 years, so 2042.

2013 to 2042 is 29 years. Pretty close.

If the PLAAF expands, then the IAF will also have to expand.