I guess you took this to a different level. That was not i was hinting here. I said objective. Now you are assuming here that the disintegration of pakistan is our objective. If that is our objective then i agree the point I mentioned alone wont give the desired result, for that we might need violent means which would have the all the aspects mentioned in the OP...... What i was intending is at a very weak Pakistan which is always at a state of war with itself and going thru economical crisis throughout.......
Let us think the unthinkable. If India decides to go for a decisive war with Pakistan, what an be realistic outcomes.
- Thread starter Saaho
- Start date
I guess you took this to a different level. That was not i was hinting here. I said objective. Now you are assuming here that the disintegration of pakistan is our objective. If that is our objective then i agree the point I mentioned alone wont give the desired result, for that we might need violent means which would have the all the aspects mentioned in the OP...... What i was intending is at a very weak Pakistan which is always at a state of war with itself and going thru economical crisis throughout.......
Pakistan was always weak in all its 70 yr old history. They were made to look stronger due to the support they got and get even today. Just remember 1971. Nothing has changed.
You are Right
It will take 10 more years for the Difference
Between The Two Countries to become so big that Pakistanis themselves Realize
The Futility of Conflict
Somehow they still believe that they can win
How funny can you get Bro? They started low intensity conflict (LIC) using non-state actors against us in 1947 and have maintained the tempo till date. Even in the years when they were financially very weak. They can sustain this LIC/Jihad against us indefinately. You must realise the root cause. It is not Kashmir. It is our religion and way of life. Its either them or us.
Of course I know this
But for a Fundamental Change to happen , it will need either of two things for them to Happen in Pakistan
1 A Big Military defeat. OR
2 Massive Economic hardships like
Argentina and Venezuela
For them to become Argentina or Venezuela
It will take 10 years , unless China pulls out its support
Military defeat will also cost us to some extent which our people wont like
Our people Are reactive , if there is a terror
Attack they want war otherwise they dont
Even think about Pakistan
You quoted Venezuala, do we have the power to force sanctions? Russia too is under sanctions today. Even after testimony after testimony by CIA to US senate, Paksitan has not been sanctioned, why? read what I posted above. We must realise that we have to fight our own battles, we do not have the ability to outsource it like USA. What I see here is that we have been made to believe that financial power alone defines the strength of a nation. Mongols were the poorest of them all when they created the biggest empire in Eurasia under Gengis Khan. Pakistan will never be banned under FATF mark my words. The usefulness of idiots is more than that of knowledeable people. Pakistan is that idiot and that pawn in the game and they love it.
1- Since it is mentioned that India will have limited no of S400 and 20 Rafales hence I conclude that this war will happen in end of 2021 or beginning of 2022. Therefore I also take the liberty of accounting other weapon systems that we are expected to have at that time.
Preparation :- Since India has decided to go all out this time hence the preparation of it must begin a year or so in advance. Here are some suggestions --
a - Increase the production of all types of ammunitions in full flow and fill our storage to the brim.
Induct necessary weapon systems on emergency basis.
b - Launch an intelligence op to locate all the nuclear weapon storage facilities and air defence facilities of Pakistan.
c - Covert diplomatic initiative for bringing all the major powers onboard.
US, EU and Israel will come easily for obvious reasons.
Russians can be lured by offering the prospect of direct energy pipeline from Russia to India. This also raises my contention on point 7 that Russia will remain neutral. No that will not be the case.
During the war use all these countries to pressurise China to not to intervene. Although I have some illusions that China will not do so anyways but still.
War --
Even it is mentioned in the question that India is prepared to take damage as high as nuclear still I think that should be avoided as much as we can. We could not afford to derail our economy for a petty nation like Pakistan. And it could only be done by relentless attack on Pakistani systems through all dimensions.
Now for explaining the war I take the liberty to explain it like an account of events.
India launches pre entice strikes on all the Major PAF bases through ALCM, and other stand off weapon systems. Corps artillery too took part in it by there extended range deep dive bramhos and precision Pinaka rockets and Prahaar missiles. Some PAF aircrafts which managed to take off were shot down by meteors and Astra mk2. AWACS and other support assets were taken care by R37m. Forward army bases and suspected nuclear installations and air defence sites were also targeted by 100s of IAF aircrafts and corps artillery. The result was that most of the PAF bases become useless. Many nuclear installations incapable of preparing warhead for a launch and many PA personnels dead in their forward bases and AD capabilities of Pakistan reduced to nothing. All this was achieved through launching salvos of CM, BM and precision rockets numbering in 1000s with the help of 100s of platforms. Next day IAF through bunker buster bombs and with no one resisting destroyed the remaining air assets of PAF in their bases. At the same time navy moved in to Arabian see with both of its Aircraft carriers and several destroyers, frigates and subs and launched a devastating attack on PN resulting in full annihilation of PN in a single night. Attacks on coastal military installations also was launched and Navy started to move with amphibious assault perssonels of IA for coastal invasion.
In the morning Army launched offensive in several sectors with half a dozen IBGs in Kashmir and Punjab. In Kashmir front the aim was to attack swiftly and retake POK while in Punjab front target was to take back areas of special importance like Nankana Sahib and Kartarpur. Another IBG also launched attack on sir creek area. But main offensive was launched by Sudarshan Chakra corps from Rajasthan to divide the Pakistan in two parts and completely segregation of Sindh and Balochistan from PAKJAB. With PAF and PN being fully destroyed IAF helped to full extent in this offensive by destroying all the armoured and artillery divisions of PA especially X corps hence not a single formation of PA left with enough firepower to counter this offensive. With Pak war machines and nukes destroyed and rise of rebellion in all parts of country the Pakistani general did what he is best at. He signed the instrument of surrender.
P.S : On the prospect of nuclear war. As I have said earlier we must not launch any offensive without the full knowledge of the location of all the nuke warhead of Pakistan and their launch platforms. They mainly intend to use it through NASR on our IBGs but our bramhos and Pinaka outrages this system so all of their batteries could be destroyed before our formations come into their strike range. Other installations should be targeted with deep dive version of bramhos carrying nuke warhead. Since it is allowed in the scenario hence I don't think there will be much problem in nuking about 2 doze. sites in Pakistan with low yield nukes ( <5 kilo-ton ).
P.S :- It is my point of view on how an offensive should be launched against Pakistan. It focuses on two points complete situational awareness and relentless precised offensive on the enemy to decapitate it to launch counter offensive
(including nuclear attack). Only through it we could come out unscathed in the war something not necessary in the given question but entirely necessary in the reality.
I have answered in my best capacity and am open to suggestions and improvements by fellow members who definitely have much more knowledge and experience on this subject.
Preparation :- Since India has decided to go all out this time hence the preparation of it must begin a year or so in advance. Here are some suggestions --
a - Increase the production of all types of ammunitions in full flow and fill our storage to the brim.
Induct necessary weapon systems on emergency basis.
b - Launch an intelligence op to locate all the nuclear weapon storage facilities and air defence facilities of Pakistan.
c - Covert diplomatic initiative for bringing all the major powers onboard.
US, EU and Israel will come easily for obvious reasons.
Russians can be lured by offering the prospect of direct energy pipeline from Russia to India. This also raises my contention on point 7 that Russia will remain neutral. No that will not be the case.
During the war use all these countries to pressurise China to not to intervene. Although I have some illusions that China will not do so anyways but still.
War --
Even it is mentioned in the question that India is prepared to take damage as high as nuclear still I think that should be avoided as much as we can. We could not afford to derail our economy for a petty nation like Pakistan. And it could only be done by relentless attack on Pakistani systems through all dimensions.
Now for explaining the war I take the liberty to explain it like an account of events.
India launches pre entice strikes on all the Major PAF bases through ALCM, and other stand off weapon systems. Corps artillery too took part in it by there extended range deep dive bramhos and precision Pinaka rockets and Prahaar missiles. Some PAF aircrafts which managed to take off were shot down by meteors and Astra mk2. AWACS and other support assets were taken care by R37m. Forward army bases and suspected nuclear installations and air defence sites were also targeted by 100s of IAF aircrafts and corps artillery. The result was that most of the PAF bases become useless. Many nuclear installations incapable of preparing warhead for a launch and many PA personnels dead in their forward bases and AD capabilities of Pakistan reduced to nothing. All this was achieved through launching salvos of CM, BM and precision rockets numbering in 1000s with the help of 100s of platforms. Next day IAF through bunker buster bombs and with no one resisting destroyed the remaining air assets of PAF in their bases. At the same time navy moved in to Arabian see with both of its Aircraft carriers and several destroyers, frigates and subs and launched a devastating attack on PN resulting in full annihilation of PN in a single night. Attacks on coastal military installations also was launched and Navy started to move with amphibious assault perssonels of IA for coastal invasion.
In the morning Army launched offensive in several sectors with half a dozen IBGs in Kashmir and Punjab. In Kashmir front the aim was to attack swiftly and retake POK while in Punjab front target was to take back areas of special importance like Nankana Sahib and Kartarpur. Another IBG also launched attack on sir creek area. But main offensive was launched by Sudarshan Chakra corps from Rajasthan to divide the Pakistan in two parts and completely segregation of Sindh and Balochistan from PAKJAB. With PAF and PN being fully destroyed IAF helped to full extent in this offensive by destroying all the armoured and artillery divisions of PA especially X corps hence not a single formation of PA left with enough firepower to counter this offensive. With Pak war machines and nukes destroyed and rise of rebellion in all parts of country the Pakistani general did what he is best at. He signed the instrument of surrender.
P.S : On the prospect of nuclear war. As I have said earlier we must not launch any offensive without the full knowledge of the location of all the nuke warhead of Pakistan and their launch platforms. They mainly intend to use it through NASR on our IBGs but our bramhos and Pinaka outrages this system so all of their batteries could be destroyed before our formations come into their strike range. Other installations should be targeted with deep dive version of bramhos carrying nuke warhead. Since it is allowed in the scenario hence I don't think there will be much problem in nuking about 2 doze. sites in Pakistan with low yield nukes ( <5 kilo-ton ).
P.S :- It is my point of view on how an offensive should be launched against Pakistan. It focuses on two points complete situational awareness and relentless precised offensive on the enemy to decapitate it to launch counter offensive
(including nuclear attack). Only through it we could come out unscathed in the war something not necessary in the given question but entirely necessary in the reality.
I have answered in my best capacity and am open to suggestions and improvements by fellow members who definitely have much more knowledge and experience on this subject.
The BIGGEST impediment to War is OUR OWN PEOPLE
War demands Casualties , Sacrifice AND MORE TAXES
Our people are happy with the Status quo
They get angry ONLY After terrorist attacks
There is a fundamental difference between
Indians and Pakistani people
Pak Army has held that Country' s development. TOTALLY HOSTAGE to the Kashmir issue
But still their people Worship the Pak Army
War demands Casualties , Sacrifice AND MORE TAXES
Our people are happy with the Status quo
They get angry ONLY After terrorist attacks
There is a fundamental difference between
Indians and Pakistani people
Pak Army has held that Country' s development. TOTALLY HOSTAGE to the Kashmir issue
But still their people Worship the Pak Army
Taking over Sindh will not require anymore taxes due to its rich resources including oil. Wars have always been fought for money and territory and that remains true even today. Why do you think USA is ruining every nation which has lots of oil?
So now you have realised the difference and come out as a wise man. This is what most people who call for bleeding Pakistan thru financial methods do not know. BTW, they print our fake currency as a state policy. Now how do you deal with such people? Try and drain them financial when they use your own fiancial strength to fight you? Koi gadha hee bolega kee we need to take down Pakistan thru non violent means. Every terror module in India is supported by the fake currency modules and the drugs brought into India thru Pakistan.
J&K sovereign part of India, Pakistan should vacate PoK: British MP
British MP Bob Blackman on Sunday said that Jammu and Kashmir was a sovereign part of India and that Pakistan should vacate PoK first. He was speaking at the "Balidan Divas" or Day of Sacrifice event held in London on Saturday.
J&K sovereign part of India, Pakistan should vacate PoK: British MP
British MP Bob Blackman on Sunday said that Jammu and Kashmir was a sovereign part of India and that Pakistan should vacate PoK first. He was speaking at the "Balidan Divas" or Day of Sacrifice event held in London on Saturday.
J&K sovereign part of India, Pakistan should vacate PoK: British MP
BTW Ketu will be transiting through its own Mula nakshatra on Jan 15 and will be there till Sep 2020. With Saturn also movin in its own sign of Makar, and Jupiter in Dhanu itself, this can be a a very decisive period in the world history. This indicates uprooting of existing religious control and creation of new roots. Ketu also represents Mlechhas.
1. Pakistan may not be able to inflict a very large scale damage to India than the Indians themselves, remember what happened on 27th Feb, bunch of rabbits started tweeting bring abhinandan back , stop war and what not. Pakistan understands India's ideology. So before anything you have to prepare the people in India for the skirmish. India missed a golden chance that day which India had got after several decades!
2. Prevent US and China from interfering in the skirmish, that should be the top priority of Indian diplomacy. India can do that if India places right kind of people in the embassies abroad. Most of the diplomatic cadre is good for nothing. War between two means oppurtunity to third and fourth parties.
3. A country of 200 Million can't really inflict military damage to a country of 1.35 billion. India's conventional power is like a hammer on Pakistan. Once India has gained momentum, Pakistan knows they can't stop it.
4. The same amount of covert and hybrid war is required to get back the territory, which will set stage from the military action. India is lacking here. India has not been able to demoralize Pakistan.
5. Goal should be to reduce Pakistan's strategic importance.
2. Prevent US and China from interfering in the skirmish, that should be the top priority of Indian diplomacy. India can do that if India places right kind of people in the embassies abroad. Most of the diplomatic cadre is good for nothing. War between two means oppurtunity to third and fourth parties.
3. A country of 200 Million can't really inflict military damage to a country of 1.35 billion. India's conventional power is like a hammer on Pakistan. Once India has gained momentum, Pakistan knows they can't stop it.
4. The same amount of covert and hybrid war is required to get back the territory, which will set stage from the military action. India is lacking here. India has not been able to demoralize Pakistan.
5. Goal should be to reduce Pakistan's strategic importance.
There will be no Nuclear exchange. Contrary to popular belief Pakistan's military has very little interest in Pakistan's land or it's military success, its prime motivator is Self Preservation. In Nuclear exchange, its military ceases to exist, while a loss at India's hand enhance it's stranglehold across the necks of the common pakistani for 3-5 coming decades.
So If there is an armored thrust Pakistan will try everything it can to contain and invoke UN intervention, If India can breach to Islamabad or bisect the span of pakistan, it will provide a unilateral surrender and take losses in Kashmir to restore the rest of one unit in Pakistan.
So If there is an armored thrust Pakistan will try everything it can to contain and invoke UN intervention, If India can breach to Islamabad or bisect the span of pakistan, it will provide a unilateral surrender and take losses in Kashmir to restore the rest of one unit in Pakistan.
Ground Invasion across IB ie Punjab and Rajasthan is the last resort
Before that we will step up on the escalation
Ladder in other ways ie
1 Declaratory Air strikes and Naval attacks
Which we did not do after Feb 27
2 Intense Artillery and MBRL attacks along the 198 KM Jammu sector which they call as Working Boundary and the Sialkot sector
3 Limited Land Grabs along LoC and Working Boundary and above all Declaration of the Commencement of Operations in POK
All these are more than enough to sink their
Morale without Crossing Red Lines
What Pakistan seeks through a Conventional Engagement such as that of Last year is that -- It has Been able to Re establish Conventional Deterrence
And that the Engagements were Equal -- Equal ; so to speak
We have to break this So called " Parity "
or Equilibrium with Swift Punitive Strikes
It is basically about Who BLINKS first
There are three basic issues here. Let's discuss them one by one -
1) People within our country can very easily be motivated to jeopardise our national interest. So how this works ?
Propaganda powered by corruption(mind it, without corrupt people, it is not possible for another country to get a foothold) handled by none other than Pakistan. The problem starts here, and leads to internal destabilisation.
2) For India to take a decisive call against Pakistan, we need two things - Political will, and citizens of India must acknowledge the need for the strike unanimously. So why is political will not sufficient alone ? The reason is simple, politics. A war (even a small scale) will lead to rise in prices of stuff and affect the life of common people ( keeping aside the casualties both military & civilians), which will in turn affect the vote bank.
3) International support, the moment India takes action, US will ask India to stand down (like what happened after Balakot, India didn't respond after PAF's attempted/botched up raid). India had the perfect opportunity to decimate Pak's military. But what happened instead, Abhinandan was used as a bargaining chip, and Pakistan being Pakistan got the chance to embarrass India by returning Abhinandan and saving their rear, also made India look ridiculously stupid, for having nothing to show for after the PAF raid.
So, what happened there? US obviously intervened and put the release of Abhinandan as the clause for India not to escalate meaning, they didn't want India to escalate.
Forget about China and Saudi, they were mute spectators then and will be in future also, BUT, US is and always will be the biggest hindrance for India to take any action against Pak as that will mean, US will not be able to use Pak for it's strategic importance.
So, can Pakistan be brought down by sanctions and financial means, no, never, as they thrive on donations from countries who need them for strategic reasons, so it is an infinite cycle, the moment they are about to collapse, they always get a lease of life from one or the other.
If we look closely, the perpetual war that Pak is waging on India since since it's inception is being sponsored by US (money, weapon) and simultaneously blocking India from doing anything decisive against Pakistan.
Now, as far as my opinion is concerned, India should start off by taking out a few of Pak's army HQs with missiles after each of their IB/LoC misadventure (viz, beheading of civilian porter) and force them to escalate. The offensive should always be disproportional, thereby raising the stakes for Pakistan. Until and unless we play on a level field, Pakistan will inherently have advantage for the above stated reasons.
1) People within our country can very easily be motivated to jeopardise our national interest. So how this works ?
Propaganda powered by corruption(mind it, without corrupt people, it is not possible for another country to get a foothold) handled by none other than Pakistan. The problem starts here, and leads to internal destabilisation.
2) For India to take a decisive call against Pakistan, we need two things - Political will, and citizens of India must acknowledge the need for the strike unanimously. So why is political will not sufficient alone ? The reason is simple, politics. A war (even a small scale) will lead to rise in prices of stuff and affect the life of common people ( keeping aside the casualties both military & civilians), which will in turn affect the vote bank.
3) International support, the moment India takes action, US will ask India to stand down (like what happened after Balakot, India didn't respond after PAF's attempted/botched up raid). India had the perfect opportunity to decimate Pak's military. But what happened instead, Abhinandan was used as a bargaining chip, and Pakistan being Pakistan got the chance to embarrass India by returning Abhinandan and saving their rear, also made India look ridiculously stupid, for having nothing to show for after the PAF raid.
So, what happened there? US obviously intervened and put the release of Abhinandan as the clause for India not to escalate meaning, they didn't want India to escalate.
Forget about China and Saudi, they were mute spectators then and will be in future also, BUT, US is and always will be the biggest hindrance for India to take any action against Pak as that will mean, US will not be able to use Pak for it's strategic importance.
So, can Pakistan be brought down by sanctions and financial means, no, never, as they thrive on donations from countries who need them for strategic reasons, so it is an infinite cycle, the moment they are about to collapse, they always get a lease of life from one or the other.
If we look closely, the perpetual war that Pak is waging on India since since it's inception is being sponsored by US (money, weapon) and simultaneously blocking India from doing anything decisive against Pakistan.
Now, as far as my opinion is concerned, India should start off by taking out a few of Pak's army HQs with missiles after each of their IB/LoC misadventure (viz, beheading of civilian porter) and force them to escalate. The offensive should always be disproportional, thereby raising the stakes for Pakistan. Until and unless we play on a level field, Pakistan will inherently have advantage for the above stated reasons.
Scenario presented has discrepancies.
If we are fighting a nuclear war then no point in mentioning conversational capabilities.
After a nuclear strike on India, Asam, Kashmir, Tamil Nadu, Khalistan and all the dozen freedom movements In India will divide India and India in its current form will cease to exist.
Same for Pakistan. The country will not remain in its current form.
If we are fighting a conventional war, then I can write a few things.
If we are fighting a nuclear war then no point in mentioning conversational capabilities.
After a nuclear strike on India, Asam, Kashmir, Tamil Nadu, Khalistan and all the dozen freedom movements In India will divide India and India in its current form will cease to exist.
Same for Pakistan. The country will not remain in its current form.
If we are fighting a conventional war, then I can write a few things.
Imran khan openly said in the Parliament that there was a missile threat on 27th Feb night. Later it was disclosed that Ajit Doval warned the ISI chief that he won't warn one more time and launch missiles if Indian pilot is not returned.
If you were really serious about nuclear war you would have not returned the Pilot.