Let us think the unthinkable. If India decides to go for a decisive war with Pakistan, what an be realistic outcomes.

[Saaho]

Let us assume :
1. India decides total commitment in attacking Pakistan. Objectives are capturing PoK and dividing Pakistan into 3 more nations: Baluchistan, Sindh and Remaining Pakistan.
2. India is read to accept nuclear damage and will not stop if it loses cities or population due to nuclear war.
3. India is not ready to honor the no first strike doctarine and will not think twice about launching a decapitation strike on Pakistan.
4. China can intervene militarily for Pakistan but in a limited fashion. It is hasitent to open fronts against India but will send forces to help Pakistan. India also has assurance from US that it will intervene if India faces China. In this scenario, we have a pact with US regarding China. We will provide forces in a US-China conflict and so will US.
5. India has limited number of S-400 and 20 Rafale, 1 additional SSN and 3-4 new Kalavari class subs additional to whatever hardware we have.
6. Pakistan has acquired HQ-9 and SH-300 in reasonable numbers. Also Pakistan operates six new Type 039A Chinese subs.
7. Russia is neutral.
8. UNSC is blocked due to vetos exercised by China and US/France.

In this case, if India wants to fight till bitter end, no matter the nuclear exchange what are possible realistic outcomes?

@Falcon @vstol Jockey @Nilgiri @nair @Ashwin @Picdelamirand-oil @screambowl @vsdoc @randomradio @Milspec

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Let us assume :
1. India decides total commitment in attacking Pakistan. Objectives are capturing PoK and dividing Pakistan into 3 more nations: Baluchistan, Sindh and Remaining Pakistan.
2. India is read to accept nuclear damage and will not stop if it loses cities or population due to nuclear war.
3. India is not ready to honor the no first strike doctarine and will not think twice about launching a decapitation strike on Pakistan.
4. China can intervene militarily for Pakistan but in a limited fashion. It is hasitent to open fronts against India but will send forces to help Pakistan. India also has assurance from US that it will intervene if India faces China. In this scenario, we have a pact with US regarding China. We will provide forces in a US-China conflict and so will US.
5. India has limited number of S-400 and 20 Rafale, 1 additional SSN and 3-4 new Kalavari class subs additional to whatever hardware we have.
6. Pakistan has acquired HQ-9 and SH-300 in reasonable numbers. Also Pakistan operates six new Type 039A Chinese subs.
7. Russia is neutral.
8. UNSC is blocked due to vetos exercised by China and US/France.

In this case, if India wants to fight till bitter end, no matter the nuclear exchange what are possible realistic outcomes?

@Falcon @vstol Jockey @Nilgiri @nair @Ashwin @Picdelamirand-oil @screambowl @vsdoc @randomradio @Milspec

This entire Premise is False

We can see an invasion in POK along LOC and along 198 KM Jammu sector

But in Punjab and Rajasthan there wont be Deep invasions , only shallow ones

The Maximum we can see is an All out Air and Naval war including Missile attacks

What I have seen in the last One year is that
Pakistan is now trying to change the Narrative by Portraying themselves as Victims of Indian Aggression

So how does the War Begin in the First place

Where is our " Casus Belli "

If in future when we say that we are trying to get POK , And assuming we do get some
Success in Neelam Valley and Haji Pir
Then Pakistan will Involve Saudi , US and China

Unless we are assured that US will support India , politically , at the cost of Antagonizing
Both Pakistan and China , Such a venture
Can prove embarrassing

My thinking is that by Attacking POK we
Want Pakistan to Accept the loss of Some
Territory and then Pakistan will Offer to make LOC permanent and end Kashmir dispute

This will be a Huge setback to Pak Army
And then it will loose its standing in the Country

 

[Saaho]

This entire Premise is False

We can see an invasion in POK along LOC and along 198 KM Jammu sector

But in Punjab and Rajasthan there wont be Deep invasions , only shallow ones

The Maximum we can see is an All out Air and Naval war including Missile attacks

What I have seen in the last One year is that
Pakistan is now trying to change the Narrative by Portraying themselves as Victims of Indian Aggression

So how does the War Begin in the First place

Where is our " Casus Belli "

If in future when we say that we are trying to get POK , And assuming we do get some
Success in Neelam Valley and Haji Pir
Then Pakistan will Involve Saudi , US and China

Unless we are assured that US will support India , politically , at the cost of Antagonizing
Both Pakistan and China , Such a venture
Can prove embarrassing

My thinking is that by Attacking POK we
Want Pakistan to Accept the loss of Some
Territory and then Pakistan will Offer to make LOC permanent and end Kashmir dispute

This will be a Huge setback to Pak Army
And then it will loose its standing in the Country

Premise is assumption, under that assumption we analyze. BTW, the thread is about thinking the unthinkable.
If you question my reasons for such an exercise, well past few months have been a parade of political unthinkables. It is not unthinkable that India enters a NATO like agreement with US wrt China.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Premise is assumption, under that assumption we analyze. BTW, the thread is about thinking the unthinkable.
If you question my reasons for such an exercise, well past few months have been a parade of political unthinkables. It is not unthinkable that India enters a NATO like agreement with US wrt China.

Against China , Does USA needs India's help

Suppose US and China have a standoff in Pacific Ocean

How can really India help realistically

At the most they will need Logistics help which is already covered under LEMOA

If India wants to seek US alliance and help , then we will have to downgrade our Relationship with Russia.

Are we ready to do so

 

[Saaho]

How can really India help realistically

By opening a second front. Causing China to move some of its air assets away from eastern front.
By blocading China's oil supplies near malacca strait.
By threatening Tibet.
By allowing stationing of USAF warplanes to hit western and southern parts of China.
By encircling China from west and south.

If India wants to seek US alliance and help , then we will have to downgrade our Relationship with Russia.

And you think that is not happening already? Russia, vis-a-vis China treats India as a second fiddle.

Are we ready to do so

Do we have any other choice?

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

By opening a second front. Causing China to move some of its air assets away from eastern front.
By blocading China's oil supplies near malacca strait.
By threatening Tibet.
By allowing stationing of USAF warplanes to hit western and southern parts of China.
By encircling China from west and south.

And you think that is not happening already? Russia, vis-a-vis China treats India as a second fiddle.

Do we have any other choice?

The Indian Government will Not prefer to
Enter into or start a Conflict with China

If China attacks India , it is another matter

And US too has the Security Obligations
Of Japan , Taiwan , Philippines and South
Korea

So US will look weak asking India to open another Front , Unless it is WW 3

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

@Saaho

https://twitter.com/x/status/1216289806356869120

 

[Arvind]

India will not make any attempt for PoK, its a strategic blunder. Never forget, divide you conquer, we are yet to fully conquer the part we already own.

 

[vstol Jockey]

India will not make any attempt for PoK, its a strategic blunder. Never forget, divide you conquer, we are yet to fully conquer the part we already own.

Naval Blockade with thrust along LOC and IB in Rajasthan will see Pakistan collapse within 72 hrs.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

India will not make any attempt for PoK, its a strategic blunder. Never forget, divide you conquer, we are yet to fully conquer the part we already own.

The idea is to Rub Pakistan Army's face in DIRT

That is the only way to make them bring to the Negotiating Table

February was One step ,
August 5 -- Article 370 removal
Was another challenge

It exposed the Pak Army' unwillingness to Fight for Indian Kashmir

Now the final blow is Haji pir , Akhnoor dagger and Neelum valley

If we make an official announcement that
Yes we have pushed Pak Army back
GHQ Rawalpindi will start trembling

 

[Arvind]

Naval Blockade with thrust along LOC and IB in Rajasthan will see Pakistan collapse within 72 hrs.

The target is not to deploy Pakistan Collapse, but ability to sustain ourselves as well post that collapse.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Naval Blockade with thrust along LOC and IB in Rajasthan will see Pakistan collapse within 72 hrs.

Pakistan has 3 DADDIES

USA , China and Saudi

We can only Get US to shut its eyes after bribing them with trade deals OR

If US gets Angry over Afghanistan violence it can ask India to hit Pakistan

 

[vstol Jockey]

Those Daddies will be of no use. In case of an all out war, Pakistan will find itself badly confined to Punjab only. With over four IBGs only for Punjab, PA will get stranded.

 

[Abhay rajput]

Until we take out Pakistan nuclear arsenal, nothing will happen. So the simple question we should be asking can we take out Pakistan nuclear weapons..?

 

[vstol Jockey]

Until we take out Pakistan nuclear arsenal, nothing will happen. So the simple question we should be asking can we take out Pakistan nuclear weapons..?

we dont need to take out their nukes. They dont have a deliverable nuke and even if they have one, will they like to get the population of Punjab killed for J&K and Sindh residents? Everything in Pakistan is expendable except Punjab.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Those Daddies will be of no use. In case of an all out war, Pakistan will find itself badly confined to Punjab only. With over four IBGs only for Punjab, PA will get stranded.

Pakistan will Deliberately destroy Kartarpur
And Nankana Sahib and Put all blame on India , to create a Sikh uprising like 1984

Until we take out Pakistan nuclear arsenal, nothing will happen. So the simple question we should be asking can we take out Pakistan nuclear weapons..?

Not without US help and involvement.

 

[Abhay rajput]

we dont need to take out their nukes. They dont have a deliverable nuke and even if they have one, will they like to get the population of Punjab killed for J&K and Sindh residents? Everything in Pakistan is expendable except Punjab.

That I have learnt from all of your previous tweets sir but Pakistan is not rational like us. do you really believe Pakistan will just loose territory and will not react... My only point Is that in an event of proper war with Pakistan, our targets should always be Pakistan nuclear weapons. Even if we have to use tactical nuke warhead on missiles to hit those places. We should not bothered about there tactical nuclear weapons at all. Thats the only way we can avoid Pakistan nukes in my opinion. It's sorry state of affairs that even after 20 years of nuclear blackmail we don't have any proper mechanism to deal with it.. the more we late , the harder it becomes. Pakistan nukes are only increasing day by day ..

 

[vstol Jockey]

That I have learnt from all of your previous tweets sir but Pakistan is not rational like us. do you really believe Pakistan will just loose territory and will not react... My only point Is that in an event of proper war with Pakistan, our targets should always be Pakistan nuclear weapons. Even if we have to use tactical nuke warhead on missiles to hit those places. We should not bothered about there tactical nuclear weapons at all. Thats the only way we can avoid Pakistan nukes in my opinion. It's sorry state of affairs that even after 20 years of nuclear blackmail we don't have any proper mechanism to deal with it.. the more we late , the harder it becomes. Pakistan nukes are only increasing day by day ..

Our stated policy on nukes is that if we are attacked anywhere by any of our enemy, we will launch debilitating strikes. Our response will be massive to the extent of destroying a full country. So if Pakistan uses nukes, irrespective of what happens to us, we will destroy whole of Pakistan. Now is there anyone in Pakistan willing to die in a war which they can't win? No Muslim army anywhere in the world has ever fought till last men. They prefer to run away like cowards and come back again but never have they fought till last men standing.

 

[nair]

We have been on state of war with pakistan for decades now. The problem here is we assume that the war is fought between two armies using different type of weapons to achieve a political objective. But that is not the case anymore....... The new generation war is achieving a political objective in every means possible, and the ability of a nation to achieve the objective without firing even a single bullet.

I do not expect any long war between India and Pakistan. Or a War which has big toys used...... We may have a skirmishes with big toys being deployed, but not used. But as i said before we will be doing things to ensure our objectives are achieved. With Modi, Shah and Doval now with Rawat as CDS expect strong deployment of Offensive defensive policy. LOC will be on fire time to time, otherwise i do not see anything major happening,

I guess we are tied to Pakistan for a very long time now, to be precise 363 days on a stretch, If we really want to grow as a nation, we have to get rid of this obsession with a nation who is going down the drain.

 

[vstol Jockey]

I guess we are tied to Pakistan for a very long time now, to be precise 363 days on a stretch, If we really want to grow as a nation, we have to get rid of this obsession with a nation who is going down the drain.

This is what I say is wrong reading of the situation. Pakistan will not be killed by use of means other than force. It could be done for USSR as they did not have anyone to support them. But in case of Pakistan the geopolitics is such that China and for that matter even USA will keep them alive till it comes to choosing between India and Pakistan. Those who think that they can do USSR to Pakistan are living in a fools paradise with zero knowledge of why Pakistan is so dear to USA, UK & China and now even for Russia. Please remember the very reason for dividing India. That great game of 19th century is still very much relevent. Pakistan stops India from becoming another China for the world. Till 18th century, India dominated world trade. No one wants India to rise again to its former glory.