Let us think the unthinkable. If India decides to go for a decisive war with Pakistan, what an be realistic outcomes.

screambowl

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India's aim should be not to invite any kind of skirmish inside it's borders. If India has issues with Pakistanis, they should counter them in some third nation. If India has issues with the Chinese they should counter them in third nation. Keep your region stable. Pakistanis and Chinese should also get this clear.
All three are big C(d*cks). Don't engage directly. This should become a norm.

Be intelligent and act smart not stupid.
 

vstol Jockey

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She's outrightly declared that India should call Pakistan's bluff. According to her, the PA is too deeply invested in Pakistan's economy & it's own privileged lifestyle to undertake any measure which would jeopardize it. She's also cited multiple war gaming scenarios conducted by US think tanks including one by the Naval war college with ex senior generals of the PA including ones in charge of their SFC which have clearly demonstrated that there's no way the PA would win even if they were to resort to the last option viz exercising the N option.

@The Deterrent like the PA is doing a very good job defending a weak hand. The only equivalent I can think of in nature are copy cats viz a non venomous snake with the same colour pattern as a venomous one usually gets the benefit of doubt by the predators & is left alone.

China in the days of Mao would resort to the same behavior everytime alternatively with the US & the former USSR by threatening to unleash N weapons in spite of being the weaker side on the pretext that China wouldn't mind the loss of half it's civilians to a N CV attack.

Considering his own track record during the 5 sparrows campaign, the great leap forward & the cultural revolution & the civilian casualties in these mad experiments running in millions of dead , both the US & the former USSR were spooked enough to believe him .

Closer to our times Kim Jong Un & his father seem to have successfuly taken out a page from Mao's books. Pakistan repeating this behavior thus should be seen in this light. At any rate I've always held that any reclamation of PoJ&K should be preceded by the Defanging of Pakistan's N arsenal, production capacities & delivery platforms with outside help if we can manage it or alone if there's no choice.
In that exercise. IA even captured a few TNWs intact and people acting for PA were very happy with that as for them it sent a direct message to India to not mess things in Punjab. So the real nuke threshold for PA is neither Sindh nor POJK but Pak Punjab.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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The Biggest consideration or rather Obstacle to War is
" How will you convince the people of
India about the need for War "

Look around yourself and see how many people are willing to pay more
Taxes for War
 

vstol Jockey

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Baigeirat quom doesn't need to be convinced. Even after 1000 years of clash , allowing their women to be raped and getting looted by invaders , letting go their territory if the community doesn't learn then it's useless to even talk about it. 80% Indians neither have any aim in life nor any tradition. Mostly are Hindus. And not just that, Hindus are looting Hindus! I used to have hope, but there is no hope now. Desh choro bahar niklo, India mein kuch nahi rakha ab. Yeh barbaad community hai.
I feel sorry for the people like Falcon Vstol Jockey and others, that they wasted their lives saving a baigerat community just for few thousand bucks.

Ramayana and Mahabharat explains India very well. A do kaudi ka dhobi questions the chastity of a queen and in Mahabharat fight among brothers. And this will continue in this land.
You have very poor knowledge of history. Hindus did lose territory and people but they never gave up. And how have you deduced we gave up our life for few thousand bucks? Only nation which could not be converted to an Islamic country even after such a massive onslaught is India.
 

Saaho

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Thank you for posting this, was exactly my point in the previous post. I believe India has conveyed via back-channels that it has TNWs too, it just doesn't wants to declare it publicly because its bad for PR.
I doubt exactly that. If India had Tactical nuclear weapons, it would have shown it openly. India certainly has thermonuclear weapons but India has no tactical nuclear weapon and no platform to deploy it.
Baigeirat quom doesn't need to be convinced. Even after 1000 years of clash , allowing their women to be raped and getting looted by invaders , letting go their territory if the community doesn't learn then it's useless to even talk about it. 80% Indians neither have any aim in life nor any tradition. Mostly are Hindus. And not just that, Hindus are looting Hindus! I used to have hope, but there is no hope now. Desh choro bahar niklo, India mein kuch nahi rakha ab. Yeh barbaad community hai.
I feel sorry for the people like Falcon Vstol Jockey and others, that they wasted their lives saving a baigerat community just for few thousand bucks.

Ramayana and Mahabharat explains India very well. A do kaudi ka dhobi questions the chastity of a queen and in Mahabharat fight among brothers. And this will continue in this land.
Stick to the topic dude, there is already too many topics for H&M discussion. @nair @Milspec please clean up posts which are not on topic.
 

vstol Jockey

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I doubt exactly that. If India had Tactical nuclear weapons, it would have shown it openly. India certainly has thermonuclear weapons but India has no tactical nuclear weapon and no platform to deploy it.
You dont even deserve a reply. If you blindfold yourself and act as blind, no one can help you.
 

screambowl

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Stick to the topic dude, there is already too many topics for H&M discussion. @nair @Milspec please clean up posts which are not on topic.
Forget nuclear war, That's not going to happen. Pakistanis know what can it do and so does Indians know as well. When there is a nuclear exchange between two countries it has full potential to escalate to global nuclear exchange.

Cold war and division of Soviet Union saw no nuclear exchange although the threat was imminent.

I doubt exactly that. If India had Tactical nuclear weapons, it would have shown it openly. India certainly has thermonuclear weapons but India has no tactical nuclear weapon and no platform to deploy it.
If India has a tactical weapon, what's the need to show? Why every one bring Pakistan when it's about nuclear exchange, expand it to Indo China front as well.
 

Saaho

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Forget nuclear war, That's not going to happen. Pakistanis know what can it do and so does Indians know as well. When there is a nuclear exchange between two countries it has full potential to escalate to global nuclear exchange.

Cold war and division of Soviet Union saw no nuclear exchange although the threat was imminent.
Read the topic and first post. Does "Think the Unthinkable" mean the same in English to me as it does to you? I hope so. Also, never say never. Especially with respect to war.
 

screambowl

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Read the topic and first post. Does "Think the Unthinkable" mean the same in English to me as it does to you? I hope so. Also, never say never. Especially with respect to war.
I think, the BMD's are produced keeping in mind the unthinkable only. You need to discuss what if China also gets involved. But there is always a way to avoid such situations and go the American way, how they dealt with soviets.
 

Saaho

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I think, the BMD's are produced keeping in mind the unthinkable only. You need to discuss what if China also gets involved. But there is always a way to avoid such situations and go the American way, how they dealt with soviets.
Well, I can also involve US and throw in Russia and western Europe in mix as well. Cann't I?

Will we be able to discuss such a complex and large scale entanglement? There is a reason that discussion are kept limited in scope. To discuss an all out war, we can only do it with two countries.

And before you say so, yes it is very realistic. China has very limited military capabilities in her east side. No air-bases and limited army.

Scenario of all out India-Pakistan war limited to these two countries is important and can indeed happen.

Now that you know what motivated me to contrive this scenario, lets get back to topic.
 

HariPrasad

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Dec 5, 2018
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Let us assume :
1. India decides total commitment in attacking Pakistan. Objectives are capturing PoK and dividing Pakistan into 3 more nations: Baluchistan, Sindh and Remaining Pakistan.
2. India is read to accept nuclear damage and will not stop if it loses cities or population due to nuclear war.
3. India is not ready to honor the no first strike doctarine and will not think twice about launching a decapitation strike on Pakistan.
4. China can intervene militarily for Pakistan but in a limited fashion. It is hasitent to open fronts against India but will send forces to help Pakistan. India also has assurance from US that it will intervene if India faces China. In this scenario, we have a pact with US regarding China. We will provide forces in a US-China conflict and so will US.
5. India has limited number of S-400 and 20 Rafale, 1 additional SSN and 3-4 new Kalavari class subs additional to whatever hardware we have.
6. Pakistan has acquired HQ-9 and SH-300 in reasonable numbers. Also Pakistan operates six new Type 039A Chinese subs.
7. Russia is neutral.
8. UNSC is blocked due to vetos exercised by China and US/France.

In this case, if India wants to fight till bitter end, no matter the nuclear exchange what are possible realistic outcomes?

@Falcon @vstol Jockey @Nilgiri @nair @Ashwin @Picdelamirand-oil @screambowl @vsdoc @randomradio @Milspec
Indian diplomacy is capable to handle international reactions and get support. To what extent we can damage Pakistan depends on India's ability to take collateral damage. However, in my opinion, if war is started, we should take to logical conclusion which includes complete inhibition of pak army, destruction of their nuke facilities and breaking Pakistan into many pieces. Punjab should be split into atleast 2 to 3 parts.
 

screambowl

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Well, I can also involve US and throw in Russia and western Europe in mix as well. Cann't I?
Haven't I already said it? And isn't US already involved? They are involved.
And before you say so, yes it is very realistic. China has very limited military capabilities in her east side. No air-bases and limited army.
You meant western side. Well, on the east it has good strength. China will not involve directly.
Indian diplomacy is capable to handle international reactions and get support
Nope it is not.

Punjab should be split into atleast 2 to 3 parts.
That will make Punjab a breeding ground of criminals and tangos. Pakistan acts as buffer. You can handle anything coming from Pakistan but if something which is globally supported tries to touch Indian territory, India won't find support. And had to side with Israel and operate the Israeli way. Indians are not trained for that. Imagine, afghan milita, uzbeks, syrian etc find a base in Pakhtunkhwa who is going to dismantle it?
 
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