Parul

Red Devil
Dec 2, 2017
1,231
1,229
Voronezh
Gayasuddin Sheikh and Mohammed Javed Peerzada are the only two Muslim MLAs in the outgoing Gujarat Assembly. Both won the Gujarat Assembly election in 2012 on Congress tickets.

Gayasuddin Sheikh was elected from Dariapur in Ahmedabad while Peerzada won from Wankaner in Rajkot. They have been fielded again by the Congress, which has given tickets to six Muslim candidates in the Gujarat Assembly election.

Muslims account for 9-10 per cent of Gujarat's population. Going by proportional representation, Gujarat Assembly may have 18 Muslim MLAs in the 182-seat House. But, the number has never crossed seven.

By mere population size, Muslims can influence Assembly election results, after delimitation done in 2012, of 36 seats, where they comprise around and above 13-14 per cent of registered voters. In 34 Assembly constituencies, Muslim voters comprise over 15 per cent of population.

There are 20 Assembly constituencies in Gujarat where Muslim voters have higher concentration, in excess of 20 per cent of population. Of these 20 seats, four are in Ahmedabad district while three each in Bharuch and Kutch districts.

HOW BJP, CONGRESS FARED ON HIGH MUSLIM CONCENTRATION SEATS?

Of the 34 seats having more than 15 per cent Muslim voters, the BJP won 21 seats in 2012 while the Congress won 12. The Congress's alliance partner - in 2012 not this time - NCP secured one seat.

In 20 Gujarat Assembly constituencies, where Muslim voters comprise more than 20 per cent of population, the BJP emerged victorious on 12 while the Congress could win 8 seats. The Congress had fielded seven Muslim candidates in 2012. The BJP had fielded none.

The two Muslim candidates of the Congress who won marched home with narrow victory margins. Gayasuddin won by little over 2,500 votes while Peerzada was ahead by less than 7,000 votes.

The BJP on the other hand, won Muslim-dominated seats like Jamalpur-Khadia, Vejalpur, Karjan and Vagra among others. Jamalpur-Khadia in Ahmedabad district has over 61 per cent Muslim voters. The BJP had claimed after 2012 Gujarat Assembly polls that the party secured about 20-25 per cent Muslim votes.

CASES IN CONTEXT

The BJP won the Jamalpur-Khadia seat comfortably winning 38.63 per cent votes compared to 33.54 per cent polled by the Congress. However, the equation changed in the Lok Sabha election, when the Congress candidate got 51.82 per cent against BJP's 43.24 per cent.

On Bharuch seat, which has about 38 per cent Muslim population, the BJP secured 59.5 per cent votes in 2012 Gujarat Assembly election. The party maintained its vote share in the Lok Sabha polls also.

The Congress improved its vote percentage between 2012 Gujarat Assembly election and the Lok Sabha polls in Bharuch constituency by but it trailed by over 22 per cent.

Except three of the 20 constituencies, where Muslims comprise more than 20 per cent of population, the BJP improved its vote share in 2014 Lok Sabha polls over 2012 Gujarat Assembly election.

The three constituencies, where BJP's vote share declined are Jambusar, Vagra and Bharuch - all in Bharuch district, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has put extra efforts this election. But, in all three constituencies, the BJP stood way ahead of the Congress in terms of votes polled.

Only in three constituencies of 20 Muslim dominated ones, the Congress polled more votes than the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. These are Jamalpur-Khaida, Danilimda (both in Ahmedabad district) and Wankaner (in Morbi). Of these three, the Congress had won two - Danilimda and Wankaner - in the 2012 Gujarat Assembly elections.

Gujarat Assembly election: Seats where Muslim voters may decide who wins

My Prediction: BJP going to get 2/3 Majority in Gujarat. :)
 
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Aashish

PARIKRAMA
Staff member
Administrator
Nov 30, 2017
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India
@Parul
Thread is now open for politics discourse.

For All
Please bear in mind - dont be abusive.. listen to all view points,, discuss and debate.. all political ideologies without being biased..

No usage of Bhakt, Pidi, Dynasty Slave, Apptards etc. Respect each others viewpoints.. Hear and then discuss

Parul please take this forward and actively see that this thread is not derailed.. report posts and move on..

Regards,
 

Parul

Red Devil
Dec 2, 2017
1,231
1,229
Voronezh
@Parul
Thread is now open for politics discourse.

For All
Please bear in mind - dont be abusive.. listen to all view points,, discuss and debate.. all political ideologies without being biased..


Parul please take this forward and actively see that this thread is not derailed.. report posts and move on..

Regards,

@Aashish Thanks for opening this thread!?

I'll keep an eye on it & follow what you've suggested. If things go out of control will immediately Bring it in Managements Notice. I Shapath!?
 
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Parul

Red Devil
Dec 2, 2017
1,231
1,229
Voronezh
Former DG of Pakistan army wishes Rahul Gandhi & supports Ahmed Patel as CM of Gujarat. Congress deep connections with Pakistan are beyond imagination. ???

DQSPMpzWsAAS0-v.jpeg

DQSPN28XcAE8G3q.jpeg
 

Grevion

Harry
Nov 30, 2017
45
56
Raam Janmbhoomi, India
Poll Of Opinion Polls Shows BJP Winning Gujarat Again, But By Smaller Margin
Gujarat votes in two phases starting Saturday, when elections will be held for 89 seats. Voting will be held in the remaining 93 seats on December 14. Results will be announced on December 18, along with those for Himachal Pradesh, which voted in November.
All India | Reported by Rohit Bhan | Updated: December 06, 2017 23:59 IST

The BJP has been in power in Gujarat for the last 22 years
Story Highlights
  • BJP will get 105-106 seats, shows poll of opinion polls
  • Congress will better its performance, get 73-74 seats: opinion polls
  • The Congress had won 60 seats in 2012, BJP had won 116
New Delhi: A poll of opinion polls that aggregates three surveys ahead of the Gujarat Assembly elections, shows the BJP getting 105-106 of the state's 182 seats, well over the halfway mark of 92 the party needs to form government a fifth consecutive time, but a smaller margin of victory than last time.

The aggregate of three opinion polls shows the Congress settling for the opposition benches again with 73-74 seats.

The India TV opinion poll predicts that the BJP will get between 106 and 116 seats, the upper end of which range will mean the party equalling its tally last time. The Times Now survey shows the BJP getting 111 seats while the ABP-CSDS opinion poll predicts the lowest tally for Gujarat's ruling party at between 91 and 99 seats.

All three opinion polls show the Congress bettering last time's performance, with India TV predicting that the party will win between 63 and 73 seats, Times Now giving it 68 seats and the ABP-CSDS poll showing a close battle, predicting the Congress will get 78-86 seats.


The poll of opinion polls shows BJP falling short of its 150-seat target
The Congress had won 60 seats in 2012. The BJP had won 116. The party has been in power in Gujarat, the home state of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah, for the last 22 years.

Amit Shah has set his party a target of winning an unprecedented 150 seats in Gujarat this time - the BJP's best performance so far was 127 seats in 2002 - but the election is seen as one of the toughest contests in the state for years.

Rahul Gandhi, who is set to be Congress president, has campaigned hard in his attempt to wrest power from the BJP, also strategically partnering with young caste leaders like Hardik Patel, the face of the Patel quota agitation, and backward caste (OBC) leader Alpesh Thakore, who joined the Congress weeks before the elections.

After its sweep of key state Uttar Pradesh earlier this year, retaining Gujarat is a crucial part of the BJP's plans as it preps for the 2019 national election, when PM Modi will seek a second term. The Prime Minister, who is on a campaign blitz and set to address 30 rallies in two weeks, has pitched the Gujarat election as a contest between "vikaswaad (development)" and "vanshwaad (dynasty)," an attack on Mr Gandhi, who has been elected unopposed to be Congress chief in place of his mother.

Gujarat votes in two phases starting Saturday, when elections will be held for 89 seats. Voting will be held in the remaining 93 seats on December 14. Results will be announced on December 18, along with those for Himachal Pradesh, which voted in November

Poll Of Opinion Polls Shows BJP Winning Gujarat Again, But By Smaller Margin
@vstol Jockey your predictions..
 

Bornubus

Team Shatrujeet
Specialist
Dec 2, 2017
20
40
What damage they weren't wining the election in the first place ! or 'neech' suneme me etni dard ho raha he to fir dusron KO kyun yehi sab kyun bolte ho
 
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