Indian Aircraft Crash Notification

_Anonymous_

Senior Member
Dec 4, 2017
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IAF never rejected or downplayed Mk2.
Did I say they've rejected it?

This is factually wrong from the hyperventilating casual observers of twitter. Projected mk2 numbers will decrease and the delays increase as AMCA numbers come in conflict with it. Post-2030, If AMCA is matured then there is no point of keep ordering mk2. Its already 28 months late if you go by the timelines ADA gave during AI-2019.
The T/L of the AMCA Mk -1 was always set to clash with the Tejas LCA - Mk2. I don't think anyone gave credence to ADA / HAL claims of FOC / Production of Mk2 by 2028 except you .

Even if AMCA Mk-1 in FOC by 2030-31 , is as capable as the Rafale F3 we've received, of which there's a good likelihood, the IAF would be a fool to choose more Mk-2 over it & would most certainly prefer it.

The IAF is probably asking the GoI to save on the development or at least cut down the production of the Mk-2 in favor of MRFA now & the AMCA Mk-1 early next decade. In many ways the Mk-2 seems dead on arrival.

All of which doesn't ameliorate the current situation of reducing squadron numbers, analysis by paralysis, decision paralysis & the stark fact that we will definitely face up with China before the decade is out with the IAF in the state it is in.

IAF does not control funding for mk2 project which is under ADA. It was already approved by CCS a decade back. There is no funding shortage for a few prototypes.
I never claimed IAF is controlling funding of the Mk-2 but in the light of the above developments, the MoD is definitely on the horns of a dilemma.

As of now there's no urgency of funds as there seems to be enough for 1 or 2 prototypes .
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
15,576
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India
IAF never rejected or downplayed Mk2. This is factually wrong from the hyperventilating casual observers of twitter. Projected mk2 numbers will decrease and the delays increase as AMCA numbers come in conflict with it. Post-2030, If AMCA is matured then there is no point of keep ordering mk2. Its already 28 months late if you go by the timelines ADA gave during AI-2019.


IAF does not control funding for mk2 project which is under ADA. It was already approved by CCS a decade back. There is no funding shortage for a few prototypes.

Yeah, I don't know where this narrative showed up that the IAF wasn't interested in Mk2.

Anyway, Mk2 and AMCA are not in conflict with each other. The IAF will end up with at least 9 squadrons, if not all 12. But MRFA is definitely in conflict with AMCA. By the time the first 57 are delivered, AMCA Mk2 will be completing flight testing.
 
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randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
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The oldest airframes of MIG 29
Might start getting phased out by 2027

We will have to wait till 2027 to see the official announcements

But all remaining MIG 21 squadrons are definitely getting retired after 2025

So where do you get the Numbers

MK 2 serial production is 8 years away

Mk2's serial production is expected in 2026, with a full squadron raised by 2028, or what HAL hopes to do. Basically, the third year of delivery will see 16 jets delivered, so the total by then could be 26 jets at the minimum. By 2030 we could have anywhere between 26 to 42 jets operational. MRFA could take 2 years more to deliver the same numbers. I'll consider it a win if we get 1 LCA Mk2 squadron and the first 2 MRFAs before 2030.

So, unless a new emergency order is placed for more Rafales, there's nothing else that can be done this decade. The only solace is the IN's getting new jets to compensate for the lack of activity in the IAF, and all of the IAF SAMs ordered to date will become operational this year. The SAMs are a massive upgrade, it is plenty enough to compensate for the lack of jets.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
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Mk2's serial production is expected in 2026, with a full squadron raised by 2028, or what HAL hopes to do. Basically, the third year of delivery will see 16 jets delivered, so the total by then could be 26 jets at the minimum. By 2030 we could have anywhere between 26 to 42 jets operational. MRFA could take 2 years more to deliver the same numbers. I'll consider it a win if we get 1 LCA Mk2 squadron and the first 2 MRFAs before 2030.

So, unless a new emergency order is placed for more Rafales, there's nothing else that can be done this decade. The only solace is the IN's getting new jets to compensate for the lack of activity in the IAF, and all of the IAF SAMs ordered to date will become operational this year. The SAMs are a massive upgrade, it is plenty enough to compensate for the lack of jets.

IAF's entire Force Planning has gone haywire because of the interminable delays in Tejas programme

They are not going to trust the so called promises regarding the delivery schedule of Both MK1A and MK 2

And Neither they are so stupid that they will shut down the SU 30 production line

MRFA is anyway linked with 110 KN engine technology agreement
 
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Ashwin

Agent_47
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Administrator
Nov 30, 2017
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The T/L of the AMCA Mk -1 was always set to clash with the Tejas LCA - Mk2. I don't think anyone gave credence to ADA / HAL claims of FOC / Production of Mk2 by 2028 except you.
The project was approved by the cabinet in 2009. So not always.

Five years of development from the first flight next year. That's a reasonable expectation.
I never claimed IAF is controlling funding of the Mk-2 but in the light of the above developments, the MoD is definitely on the horns of a dilemma.
Then why are you making this statement?
The IAF is probably asking the GoI to save on the development or at least cut down the production of the Mk-2 in favor of MRFA now
R&D/development fund to ADA is not going from IAF's portion. Why do they care?

There is no conflict as such to stop the development of mk2 for AMCA. Its just a question of how many can IAF order which is topic best left to debate five years from now.

Anyway, Mk2 and AMCA are not in conflict with each other.
Numbers will conflict as both are of the same class and have similar roles.

Yeah, I don't know where this narrative showed up that the IAF wasn't interested in Mk2.
In one interview the interviewer asked about AMCA, not mk2 thus air chief didn't mention it. Every other time last 4 years they show full support to mk2.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
15,576
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India
IAF's entire Force Planning has gone haywire because of the interminable delays in Tejas programme

They are not going to trust the so called promises regarding the delivery schedule of Both MK1A and MK 2

And Neither they are so stupid that they will shut down the SU 30 production line

MRFA is anyway linked with 110 KN engine technology agreement

The cancellation of MMRCA was far more devastating than the delays in LCA. At least we have a contract here.

Su-30 production line has pretty much been shut down already. The 12 jets we are expected to buy are just CKDs. LCA Mk2 and/or HTT-40 will be produced there.

MRFA is not linked to the engine plan, it's separate. But supporting AMCA program is. The engine deal is in fact expected to be inked long before MRFA deal closes.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
15,576
11,326
India
Numbers will conflict as both are of the same class and have similar roles.

Are you referring to MRFA? 'Cause LCA Mk2 and AMCA most definitely are not in the same class or have the same role, not even a bit.

But MRFA numbers can get cut down to 6 squadrons instead of 9 based on the current plan. The drop to 57 is also meant to give the IAF and MoD the flexibility to curtail imports later on. So AMCA can easily fill in those numbers.

In one interview the interviewer asked about AMCA, not mk2 thus air chief didn't mention it. Every other time last 4 years they show full support to mk2.

Oh, yeah. Funny. The IAF Chief didn't mention it, so that means Mk2 is not coming. :rolleyes:

I still wonder how people assumed that when it's an active DRDO program already. Whatever, it's a waste of time.
 

Jersey27

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Nov 26, 2021
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