Indian Aircraft Crash Notification

Picdelamirand-oil

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I have always wondered why people in this country are so hypocritic and only act themselves when there is a misfortune? Like, I don't see anyone not even in this forum recently where members are discussing about mig21 retirement fast or anything before this unfortunate news came. Just when this news came out everyone suddenly remembered, "oh we forgot about flying coffins", "let's make some hue and cry on tooter abuse the leadership and that will fulfill our duty towards the nation and her saviours" and then in the next day everyone will get back to trolling pak, US, Russia etc like there was nothing happening yesterday. People will call the IAF as a 'hathyara AF' 'incompetent AF' and the next day they will defend IAF when a Pakistani or a dephans exfart trolls IAF and its CAS. Why can't people here stick to one thing? If u are calling the IAF as hathyara AF then stick to that, don't defend them when someone trolls them and if its vice versa then stick to that as well.
Being fickle minded only shows hypocrisy and the reality that just like IAF the common people are too reactive which they accuse the govt and armed forces of.
From the IAF's point of view it is not possible to withdraw MiG-21s without first replacing them. After all they served after Balakot strike.

If you want to replace them with Indian-built aircraft, the main constraint is that HAL delivers the Tejas LCAs at a low rate, so you can't blame the IAF for that.

If we want to replace them with imported aircraft, the quickest way is to import additional Rafales, and a new order could have been placed at least three years ago. But obviously the IAF would have agreed to this order, it was the MOD and its budgetary constraints that had other priorities, so again the IAF cannot be blamed.
 
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_Anonymous_

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Been on Twitter after a long time. They've merely echoed what I pointed out a few months back ( which in turn was my extrapolation here of what they were discussing on Twitter , mostly inspired by their takes on it ) when storyteller was spinning his MRFA this year spiel with IAF being flush with funds yet not flush with funds yarns.

The fundamental issues laid out seems thus :

IAF is unrelenting in it's demand for MRFA in it's full complement of 114 nos .
That too N-O-W.

MoD / GoI is probably asking them to go ahead with exercising their options for 36/54 without committing to the MRFA / rest of the nos. of FA.

Upon being pressed by the IAF the standard response would've been to point out to the usual lack of funds .

To which the IAF has retaliated , from the past 1 year , by ceasing to speak about the Mk-2 in public & about their plans for inducting them into the IAF. The numbers projected by the IAF in public & to the government which in 4-5 yrs has seen them scale back their commitments from 200+ to 108 nos now & that too being extremely reluctant about the whole project tells a tale of it's own .

All this has directly impacted the development of the Mk-2 manifested most notably in the alleged lack of funds. I won't be surprised in the least if they've ceased participating in the project too & if that seems too much definitely scaled down their participation.

This is why you saw a spurt of bizarre reports coming out in the past few months about the MRFA being broken up into 2 parts with immediate requirement of 56 nos followed by a vague commitment to go in for similar numbers sometime early next decade. Apart from that you also saw the MII for some 27 nos tamasha with additional reports on how the 2nd complement next decade would be a rupee only affair etc .

All this calls for a more proactive role by the RM who just like his predecessor seems to be more of a placeholder. Add to this the fact that we've no CDS after the last one passed away nor are there any signs of one . It's in times like this one sorely feels the absence of decisive people like MP or even Gen Rawat - effective problem solvers & trouble shooters in their own right .

To think we're a nation of 1.35 billion & we can't get adequate replacements or the right ones to the office. This also brings into question the age old fallacy of having generalists in key posts that we in India have proved especially adept at not solving leaving the nation to face the consequences like VK Krishna Menon in 1962 , AKA from 2007-14 , NS & RS now in the hot seat - the importance of having specialists heading key ministries like Defence , Finance , MEA , etc .

You don't see major democracies like the US face this problem . Even the UK has this system of shadow ministers in their opposition . Then there's us.

To conclude one doesn't know how all parties concerned would resolve this altogether unnecessary self created conundrum but I don't think there's any doubt that both the IAF & the MoD / GoI are set on a collision course.

It's highly unfortunate that all this along with grand schemes like the theatreization & experimental ones like Agniveer are being launched now when we're probably on the cusp of the most important decade in our short existence as a nation given what's rapidly unfolding all across the world particularly in our neck of the woods since 2020 ( LAC / China ) & 2021 ( Afghanistan) .

2022 is still WiP & we're already seeing upending of the existing world order given the Ukraine war , the collapse in SL & the impending one in Pakistan. This seems only the beginning & the coming recession would see multiple ones all across the globe over the next few yrs including a deep impact on India as I see the Ukraine war spilling into the next year .

Our foreign policy establishment seems to have concluded that they've deterred China. Outwardly at least the refrain seems to be that they've managed the current crisis. Who's to tell them that China has determined that they will wage war against India & that it's merely a question of when not if . All the above rant has to be seen in this context.

All this is impacting our current schedule in retiring the MiG-21s & speeding up procurement / increasing the numbers of Mk-1A from the currently ordered quantities manifesting itself in what we've just seen happen in Rajasthan & the usual breast beating commences. Till the next accident then , when we'd see another round Deja Vu all over again.
 
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xxxxx

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Dec 28, 2021
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Om Shanti to the pilots. Clear blue skies ahead for them :( Pray this trash jet gets retired quickly
Does the MG-21 fail frequently because it is too old? It’s not really, it’s more about poor maintenance. Since 2021, 6 MIG21s have crashed. Other countries don’t have such a high probability of crashing, and they are all about to keep up with the F-104.
I have seen some accident analysis, the crash in India is mainly due to the failure of the oil pipeline, which caused the fire in the air, this is mainly the problem of HAL, not the problem of MIG21
 
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R73 FTW

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From the IAF's point of view it is not possible to withdraw MiG-21s without first replacing them. After all they served after Balakot strike.

If you want to replace them with Indian-built aircraft, the main constraint is that HAL delivers the Tejas LCAs at a low rate, so you can't blame the IAF for that.

If we want to replace them with imported aircraft, the quickest way is to import additional Rafales, and a new order could have been placed at least three years ago. But obviously the IAF would have agreed to this order, it was the MOD and its budgetary constraints that had other priorities, so again the IAF cannot be blamed.
HAL doesn't deliver the Tejas at a low rate, it only delivers at the rate in which order is placed. They aren't gonna start a new line if there are no orders propotional to that. HAL has capacity of making 16/year according and that's according to the order of 83 jets contract. How is it slow in anyway? And as for Rafale what the hell? You do realize that we specifically have made a jet that can do interceptor role better than mig21bis? Are you saying to replace Mig21bis an interceptor with Rafale or that having more Rafale is gonna solve Mig21bis problem?
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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HAL doesn't deliver the Tejas at a low rate, it only delivers at the rate in which order is placed. They aren't gonna start a new line if there are no orders propotional to that. HAL has capacity of making 16/year according and that's according to the order of 83 jets contract. How is it slow in anyway? And as for Rafale what the hell? You do realize that we specifically have made a jet that can do interceptor role better than mig21bis? Are you saying to replace Mig21bis an interceptor with Rafale or that having more Rafale is gonna solve Mig21bis problem?
In France, the Rafale is planned to replace all types of fighter aircraft, which makes 7 types, so why not in India?
 

Hydra

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May 19, 2020
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HAL doesn't deliver the Tejas at a low rate, it only delivers at the rate in which order is placed. They aren't gonna start a new line if there are no orders propotional to that. HAL has capacity of making 16/year according and that's according to the order of 83 jets contract. How is it slow in anyway? And as for Rafale what the hell? You do realize that we specifically have made a jet that can do interceptor role better than mig21bis? Are you saying to replace Mig21bis an interceptor with Rafale or that having more Rafale is gonna solve Mig21bis problem?
If HAL had stick to the MK1 delivery time line, then they can produce 16 mk1a per anum as they committed. If they didn't stick to MK1 timeframe, then they never gonna deliver mk1a as they committed.
Does HAL stick to the original timeframe? If somebody knows about it, pls tell.
 

R73 FTW

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In France, the Rafale is planned to replace all types of fighter aircraft, which makes 7 types, so why not in India?
I think sir you didn't read thoroughly when I said that we have specifically made an indigenous fighter jet called Tejas which is an LCA that can do interceptor role better than mig21bis. Why would we trash our own homegrown successful programme that spanned through decades just to induct more foreign jets for that specific role. Doesn't make any sense to me. Besides, with due respect France and India have completely different defence requirement with respect to how our enemies are concerned. The entire point of India's defence procurements for more than 7yrs now is to be as much as self-reliant and indigenously capable enough to fulfill our defence requirements.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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I think sir you didn't read thoroughly when I said that we have specifically made an indigenous fighter jet called Tejas which is an LCA that can do interceptor role better than mig21bis. Why would we trash our own homegrown successful programme that spanned through decades just to induct more foreign jets for that specific role. Doesn't make any sense to me. Besides, with due respect France and India have completely different defence requirement with respect to how our enemies are concerned. The entire point of India's defence procurements for more than 7yrs now is to be as much as self-reliant and indigenously capable enough to fulfill our defence requirements.
I understand, France has had the same approach of having an objective of national independence for armaments and having an all-out defence. But we built this independence by continuing to be defended against the main threats even if it meant buying foreign weapons. India is weak against China and needs a stop-gap to strengthen its air force.
 
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R73 FTW

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I understand, France has had the same approach of having an objective of national independence for armaments and having an all-out defence. But we built this independence by continuing to be defended against the main threats even if it meant buying foreign weapons. India is weak against China and needs a stop-gap to strengthen its air force.
The stop-gap is being addressed right now as we speak in the form of super sukhoi acquisition and we already have our plans sorted out to get to sanctioned sqdrn strength of 42 by 2035 with the help of MRFA, Tejas(every variant), AMCA among others. And by no means we are weak against China. That was shown in Galwan and Op Leopard. Having quantitative edge doesn't necessarily mean they have qualitative edge as well. Last I heard their j20 was having trouble operating in those heights whereas our jets were having no problem. And by no means will replacing mig21bis with twin engines cut for us cuz we already have a jet that is far capable in doing interceptor role and absolutely lethal in BVR
 

randomradio

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In France, the Rafale is planned to replace all types of fighter aircraft, which makes 7 types, so why not in India?

France doesn't share a border with an enemy, so there is no need for the fastest possible takeoff time.

Unless the Rafale can switch on both engines simultaneously, it's not possible for it to replace a SE jet for the Mig-21's role.
 
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randomradio

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I understand, France has had the same approach of having an objective of national independence for armaments and having an all-out defence. But we built this independence by continuing to be defended against the main threats even if it meant buying foreign weapons. India is weak against China and needs a stop-gap to strengthen its air force.

It's too late for a stopgap solution for the IAF. If a war happens over the next 2-3 years, then the IAF have done the best they can. They have focused on weapons, SAMs and network for now, which should be enough for the current situation in Ladakh. A bigger war will need more than a stopgap solution.

Plus most of the IAF's modernisation funds are being channeled towards the army. IA needs helicopters and transports, and that's where the IAF's drive is currently focused at. After the C-295 and initial LCH contracts went through, the next step would be to order more C-130J, Chinooks, apart from LUH.

Money is going away in small numbers towards the army directly like this:

Or indirectly:
 
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randomradio

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Does the MG-21 fail frequently because it is too old? It’s not really, it’s more about poor maintenance. Since 2021, 6 MIG21s have crashed. Other countries don’t have such a high probability of crashing, and they are all about to keep up with the F-104.
I have seen some accident analysis, the crash in India is mainly due to the failure of the oil pipeline, which caused the fire in the air, this is mainly the problem of HAL, not the problem of MIG21

The Mig-21's crash rate is normal for a 2nd gen design. It's still far away from the F-104's record.
 
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R73 FTW

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It's too late for a stopgap solution for the IAF. If a war happens over the next 2-3 years, then the IAF have done the best they can. They have focused on weapons, SAMs and network for now, which should be enough for the current situation in Ladakh. A bigger war will need more than a stopgap solution.

Plus most of the IAF's modernisation funds are being channeled towards the army. IA needs helicopters and transports, and that's where the IAF's drive is currently focused at. After the C-295 and initial LCH contracts went through, the next step would be to order more C-130J, Chinooks, apart from LUH.

Money is going away in small numbers towards the army directly like this:

Or indirectly:
Super sukhoi is a stop gap measure though right?
 

randomradio

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Super sukhoi is a stop gap measure though right?

The upgrade makes our existing capabilities better, but it's not a stopgap, it's our main capability.

Stopgaps are used to fill the gaps in capability, and there are three types. One is life extension, like the Mig-21 upgrade and the second refit of the Kilo class. The second one, the tech meets requirements but cannot be bought in large numbers for whatever reason, like the Rafale and SIG716. The third type is when it doesn't meet all requirements in all terrains, but the capability is necessary for immediate induction for use in some terrains, like the Spike ATGM.

Most of our stopgap capabilities are exercised using option 1. Option 2 is exercised as emergency purchases. The third option is rarely exercised for purchases. Spike came with some untested capabilities in the desert terrain, but it doesn't matter if it's exclusively used in mountains. All our leases also come under the third option, since we can give it up in time.

But the MKI does carry stopgap weapons. Like, the BVR missile purchases from Russia after Balakot, integration of MICA, a lot of other A2G weapons. 'Cause now the MKI is waiting for Indian weapons.

The LCA Mk1A would kinda, sorta qualify under option 3. The IAF would not have bought it if it had other options, the main LCA capabilities required are expected to come out of Mk2. So the Mk1A is a low end stopgap for the Mk2.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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The upgrade makes our existing capabilities better, but it's not a stopgap, it's our main capability.

Stopgaps are used to fill the gaps in capability, and there are three types. One is life extension, like the Mig-21 upgrade and the second refit of the Kilo class. The second one, the tech meets requirements but cannot be bought in large numbers for whatever reason, like the Rafale and SIG716. The third type is when it doesn't meet all requirements in all terrains, but the capability is necessary for immediate induction for use in some terrains, like the Spike ATGM.

Most of our stopgap capabilities are exercised using option 1. Option 2 is exercised as emergency purchases. The third option is rarely exercised for purchases. Spike came with some untested capabilities in the desert terrain, but it doesn't matter if it's exclusively used in mountains. All our leases also come under the third option, since we can give it up in time.

But the MKI does carry stopgap weapons. Like, the BVR missile purchases from Russia after Balakot, integration of MICA, a lot of other A2G weapons. 'Cause now the MKI is waiting for Indian weapons.

The LCA Mk1A would kinda, sorta qualify under option 3. The IAF would not have bought it if it had other options, the main LCA capabilities required are expected to come out of Mk2. So the Mk1A is a low end stopgap for the Mk2.

We will have to keep Manufacturing more SU 30s or buy More MIG 29s

MiG 21 end is near ,all will be retired by 2025 December

More Rafales are coming after 3 years ie after MRFA is signed and F4 version is selected

Tejas MK1A will be available post 2024
 

Ashwin

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In France, the Rafale is planned to replace all types of fighter aircraft, which makes 7 types, so why not in India?
Because India has real threats across borders, also the nature of threats and geographical challenges are very different. It's impossible to make one-fit solutions.
 
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randomradio

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We will have to keep Manufacturing more SU 30s or buy More MIG 29s

MiG 21 end is near ,all will be retired by 2025 December

More Rafales are coming after 3 years ie after MRFA is signed and F4 version is selected

Tejas MK1A will be available post 2024

Mig-29 will begin phase out from 2027. So the IAF is likely confident that the LCA Mk2 will start delivering by then.

Adding more Su-30s does nothing. Any future purchase for the IAF must be Rafale, Su-57 or F-35. Anything else is a waste of time, 'cause they will get shot down.
 
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Ashwin

Agent_47
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Been on Twitter after a long time. They've merely echoed what I pointed out a few months back ( which in turn was my extrapolation here of what they were discussing on Twitter , mostly inspired by their takes on it ) when storyteller was spinning his MRFA this year spiel with IAF being flush with funds yet not flush with funds yarns.

The fundamental issues laid out seems thus :

IAF is unrelenting in it's demand for MRFA in it's full complement of 114 nos .
That too N-O-W.

MoD / GoI is probably asking them to go ahead with exercising their options for 36/54 without committing to the MRFA / rest of the nos. of FA.

Upon being pressed by the IAF the standard response would've been to point out to the usual lack of funds .

To which the IAF has retaliated , from the past 1 year , by ceasing to speak about the Mk-2 in public & about their plans for inducting them into the IAF. The numbers projected by the IAF in public & to the government which in 4-5 yrs has seen them scale back their commitments from 200+ to 108 nos now & that too being extremely reluctant about the whole project tells a tale of it's own .

All this has directly impacted the development of the Mk-2 manifested most notably in the alleged lack of funds. I won't be surprised in the least if they've ceased participating in the project too & if that seems too much definitely scaled down their participation.
IAF never rejected or downplayed Mk2. This is factually wrong from the hyperventilating casual observers of twitter. Projected mk2 numbers will decrease and the delays increase as AMCA numbers come in conflict with it. Post-2030, If AMCA is matured then there is no point of keep ordering mk2. Its already 28 months late if you go by the timelines ADA gave during AI-2019.


IAF does not control funding for mk2 project which is under ADA. It was already approved by CCS a decade back. There is no funding shortage for a few prototypes.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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Mig-29 will begin phase out from 2027. So the IAF is likely confident that the LCA Mk2 will start delivering by then.

Adding more Su-30s does nothing. Any future purchase for the IAF must be Rafale, Su-57 or F-35. Anything else is a waste of time, 'cause they will get shot down.

The oldest airframes of MIG 29
Might start getting phased out by 2027

We will have to wait till 2027 to see the official announcements

But all remaining MIG 21 squadrons are definitely getting retired after 2025

So where do you get the Numbers

MK 2 serial production is 8 years away