Some questions for the Indian community, from my personal perspective, on the whole episode:
1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? If yes, does it raise doubts on the effectiveness of SPICE? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the DSMAC feed of the SPICE seekers?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?
2. Why was the retaliatory PAF strike package not intercepted inside Indian territory?
A. Did the IAF not have enough CAP units in the region, given the threat of imminent retaliation? Were they merely out of range?
B. Or did PAF employ multiple divisive intrusion tactics in the same region, leading to IAF CAPs being distracted and outnumbered?
3. Why did Wing Commander Abhinandan went alone after PAF fighters in hot pursuit, given the proximity of LoC?
A. Did he violate RoEs and ignore the instructions given by his controllers to not proceed? If yes, does this raise doubts on the discipline of IAF pilots, or is this a one-off case? Did Wing Commander Abhinandan fall into a well-designed bait?
B. If he didn't, why didn't his wingman follow his suit? Why did the Su-30MKIs/Mirage-2000s fail to provide cover to the aircraft(s) going in hot pursuit?
4. Why didn't the IAF Su-30MKIs engage/retaliate when PAF F-16s/JF-17s launched BVRs towards them?
A. Is this a simple case of the priority to execute evasive maneuvers/jamming?
B. Or did the Su-30MKIs not have a valid firing solution, given the RoEs and the rapid egression of PAF fighters?
5. Why did the IAF Mi-17 went down in the same time frame as the dogfight over LoC?
A. Was it a mere coincidence that despite Mi-17 being a robust aircraft, it suffered a catastrophic crash, and not even a crash landing?
B. Or if the photos of a punched hole in the tail of the Mi-17 are authentic, is it possible that it was a case of fratricide? If yes, was it shot down by a SAM from the Srinagar AFS or by an AAM from an IAF aircraft?
6. Why didn't the Indian Military respond/retaliate to the PAF strike, given it struck in close proximity of IA's military installations?
A. Did GoI and the Indian Military call it a day and declared scores being settled, since no damage was done to IA's military installations?
B. Or did the Indian Military prepare to escalate with a retaliatory Air/Missile strike? If yes, why was it called off? Did the Indian public's emotions regarding the shot down pilot play a role? Did the International Community alone prevent India from doing so? Or did Pakistan's probable mobilization of nuclear weapons played its role?
7. Why did the Indian Submarine surface close to the Pakistani coast?
A. Was this on purpose, to demonstrate a show-of-force? If yes, is exposing a submarine's signature to a maritime surveillance aircraft worth it?
B. If not, was it unavoidable snorkeling, since the submarine was already on a course away (SW) from the Pakistani coast?
Note:
Intentionally skipping questions about the twin-seat aircraft that allegedly went down over the LoC, since claims remain unsubstantiated and so far discussions on it have been driven by emotions rather than rationale. My personal hunch is still with a F-16B/D as the most probable candidate. Similarly claims of Su-30MKI/Mirage-2000 remain unsubstantiated.
@Falcon , your effort to stay impartial and objective regarding facts on the ground is much appreciated. I hope you keep your strength up to dispel rumors, false bravado and war-mongering. These questions are not directed towards you, since you've already answered most of them. However feel welcome to elaborate on anything. The larger purpose of this post is to combine all my answered/unanswered questions into one post, as food for thought, for everyone.