@Sancho [In replay to an earlier conversation]
Pakistani nuclear doctrine - Its basically first strike, they outlined multiple thresholds: Spatial, military, political etc. ie, so many reasons to use a nuclear device. Do not dare to poke us. (Also, unlike our doctrine they do not have a fully defined one. Its somewhat ambiguous )
Indian Nuclear doctrine - Its no first use with disproportionate and massive retaliation. One device use on our land or force (CSD), Pakistan will cease to exist.
Pakistani Nuclear blackmail - It means to issue a threat to the adversary and the international community with 'possible' nuclear device use. This flexibility comes from the first strike nature of nuclear forces. Which is not the case for India or China.
Pakistan used irregular radicals inside India which give them plausible deniability and nuclear blackmail give them room to control indian escalate without much cost (2001, 2008 terror attacks). The blackmail is a regular thing from the days of Kargil. Even during the last conflict, the first thing they did was to call the Nuclear Command Authority (Because IAF bombed forest apparently!). From Kargil days we were careful what we do explicitly using conventional forces because we were unsure what the thresholds are. Nuclear blackmail doesn't mean their conventional forces are incompetent. They were and are fully capable to defend themselves.
During kargil, we were using our conventional force against 'irregulars' which occupied our land. There was no nuclear factor since we didn't breach land/airspace of Pakistan. They simply didn't have any reasoning to use conventional force against us then. They were equally capable to do a retaliation like now if we would have done a balakot then.
With the surgical strike, we crossed LoC to attack terror camps which they denied. ie, no nuclear factor or need to reply using conventional forces. With Balakot, we attacked deep inside Pakistan (Unprecedented in the history of nuclear nations). Which ISPR admitted first. Thus a retaliation was warranted. How can a security state survive without the confidence of the public?. They actually failed to do the intended but got the trophy of abhinandan and the moral high ground of his release. Thus the optic was taken care of and deescalated.
Balakot changed the entire nuclear power balance of the subcontinent. It proved the nuclear umbrella has enough room to escalate without touching thresholds. It proved a terrorist strike inside india can invite direct retaliation inside Pakistan mainland. Which in turn can escalate to be consequences to not only military but also economical and diplomatically which will hurt the nation.
Few Balakot or SS are not going to deter a security state like Pakistan from using irregulars to destabilize India. It will continue to happen as long as the nation exists in its current form (ideology/military deep state). We can only increase the cost of such action to the Pakistani deep state and control it somewhat. Basically, Offensive defense.
