Well instead of looking at the " Chinese " and the " Western countries " in isolation which everybody is doing
Why not look at the possibility of " convergence of interest(s) " with regard to the benifits of Wuhan virus between " China " and " West ".
Best planned operations are those whose " aims " are not visible untill they actually fructify. When everything finally unfolds, everybody other than the players end up looking like fools and are more likely to look for a way out than fix liability on the players.
It's a poor operation if " aims " are obvious during the execution of the operation.
" We tend to perceive what we expect to perceive "
Also " aims " are never fixed, rather " flexible " because the variables are in large numbers and their interactions are unpredictable.
Rather what we have is " strategic aims " and " tactical aims " within a set of probable outcomes beneficial to the players
Unfortunately I don't have the braincells to fathom what the aims are in the current context
Analysing a " situation " is a highly daunting task , more so because all of us suffer from cognitive bias , bias in perception of cause and effect , correlation bias , consensus bias , information bias etc
Don't mind me just expressing my 5 paisa opinion , kindly continue
And please left libtard brigade here stop invoking the gau fanatic reference , odd 200+ people doing a drama ain't gonna hide the 1000+ something deaths by christians drinking " holy dettol " and mullahs " kiss of death " . Morons and their self loathing . Despicable .
Why not look at the possibility of " convergence of interest(s) " with regard to the benifits of Wuhan virus between " China " and " West ".
Best planned operations are those whose " aims " are not visible untill they actually fructify. When everything finally unfolds, everybody other than the players end up looking like fools and are more likely to look for a way out than fix liability on the players.
It's a poor operation if " aims " are obvious during the execution of the operation.
" We tend to perceive what we expect to perceive "
Also " aims " are never fixed, rather " flexible " because the variables are in large numbers and their interactions are unpredictable.
Rather what we have is " strategic aims " and " tactical aims " within a set of probable outcomes beneficial to the players
Unfortunately I don't have the braincells to fathom what the aims are in the current context
Analysing a " situation " is a highly daunting task , more so because all of us suffer from cognitive bias , bias in perception of cause and effect , correlation bias , consensus bias , information bias etc
Don't mind me just expressing my 5 paisa opinion , kindly continue
And please left libtard brigade here stop invoking the gau fanatic reference , odd 200+ people doing a drama ain't gonna hide the 1000+ something deaths by christians drinking " holy dettol " and mullahs " kiss of death " . Morons and their self loathing . Despicable .
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Unfortunately, the virus is not serious enough for a convergence of interests to happen. So all parties are going to look for extracting the maximum benefits from this crisis.
https://icmr.nic.in/sites/default/f...ercial_kits_for_diagnosis_of_COVID_240320.pdf
Interesting results :
My Lab PathoDetect is an Indian company. Seegene is korean.
Now to make sense of this:
"Concordance among true positive" means %age of true positive which when tested by the kit leaned towards positive.
"Concordance among true negative" means %age of true negative which when tested by the kit leaned towards negative.
It seems none of the kits produced false positive and false negatives. They might have indicated test to be inconclusive.
IIT-D test though based on qPCR, performed bad in true positive tests. Basically, it means if you are uninfected, the test is 98% likely to come out as negative and 2% as inconclusive. But if you are infected and may be showing symptoms, test is only 10% likely to come out as positive. @vstol Jockey
Not a good test for finding positives among general population.
My Lab PathoDetect really really worked well. I wonder if they had a collaboration with Seegene or Altona. If they develop entirely inhouse, then it is a great work indeed!
Now what we need is automation to speed up testing. Ideally we need one of these :-
cobas 8800.
10-20 of these will be enough to test entire India. I don't know if roche will let Indian Labs use their own test kits on these machines.
Or we can go for a lower cost machine or machines which allows use of third party kits.
Interesting results :
My Lab PathoDetect is an Indian company. Seegene is korean.
Now to make sense of this:
"Concordance among true positive" means %age of true positive which when tested by the kit leaned towards positive.
"Concordance among true negative" means %age of true negative which when tested by the kit leaned towards negative.
It seems none of the kits produced false positive and false negatives. They might have indicated test to be inconclusive.
IIT-D test though based on qPCR, performed bad in true positive tests. Basically, it means if you are uninfected, the test is 98% likely to come out as negative and 2% as inconclusive. But if you are infected and may be showing symptoms, test is only 10% likely to come out as positive. @vstol Jockey
Not a good test for finding positives among general population.
My Lab PathoDetect really really worked well. I wonder if they had a collaboration with Seegene or Altona. If they develop entirely inhouse, then it is a great work indeed!
Now what we need is automation to speed up testing. Ideally we need one of these :-
cobas 8800.
10-20 of these will be enough to test entire India. I don't know if roche will let Indian Labs use their own test kits on these machines.
Or we can go for a lower cost machine or machines which allows use of third party kits.
I doubt ChiComs are this stupid.
What mostly happened was much simpler : Regional government knew something was brewing all the way back in October. They suppressed the details to keep their jobs and to keep a lid on the trouble otherwise their reputation will be tarnished. This is common feature of Chinese society. Keeping the face and fearing the retribution or being simply made a scapegoat. Punishments are severe. So, lying comes natural to Chinese. Also, you don't like to "correct" your bosses, if you are Chinese. If ChiCom Permeire said No new Covid cases found, then provincial governments will ENSURE that no new cases. Nothing new, happened in GDP prediction as well. ChiCom party predicted 6.0% growth. Exact 6.0 % was delivered.
It is possible that virus might have leaked from that lab. Its origins are still murky. It can indeed happen by chance. It has happened a lot in the past as well. Pigs are the biggest vessels for this. That said how and where can this happen is still need to be researched.
What are you talking about? Its normal to have virus transmission from one animal to another (Human is no exception). Its effects on that particular animal depend on its immune system. Spanish flu origin was tracked backed to the mixing of birds and swine to humans. \
Here is a list of all zoonosis diseases.
SARS-CoV was precisely tacked backed to the local market in Guangdong, China. This is no new instance.
You should check out this Vox clip explaining how the liberal wild animal trade and in china could be the underlying reason for multiple outbreaks from china.
Our inherent bias wants us to be this kind of conspiracy narrative to be true. But often its not.
Well, you've actually triggered my train of thoughts with the kind of imagination you've brought to how the economy of these nations particularly Italy would improve post this crisis. Hope you avail of the opportunity though.
I hate ChiComs with passion and want all of those filthy animals dead but even then I cann't warp my head around this idea that they will be so stupid and retarded to release a virus in their own country to infect visiting europeans and americans.
I see we've moved into conspiracy territory
. Viruses mutate, a lot. It's what they do. Sometimes they even mutate and jump ship from animals to humans, and do really good. Sometimes they fail and die off. Sometimes viruses that infect us, mutate and go on to harm animals and devastate a species or population. They do this. It's normal. There's billions of viruses out there. Odds are pretty good one will get it right with a mutation and thrive and replicate. Most mutations are small and harmless. Others aren't.
They do this. They've always done this. It's what viruses do.
Rabies, HIV/AIDS, H1N1, SARS Classic, Ebola, they've all made the jump from animal to human and done really well.
. Viruses mutate, a lot. It's what they do. Sometimes they even mutate and jump ship from animals to humans, and do really good. Sometimes they fail and die off. Sometimes viruses that infect us, mutate and go on to harm animals and devastate a species or population. They do this. It's normal. There's billions of viruses out there. Odds are pretty good one will get it right with a mutation and thrive and replicate. Most mutations are small and harmless. Others aren't.They do this. They've always done this. It's what viruses do.
Rabies, HIV/AIDS, H1N1, SARS Classic, Ebola, they've all made the jump from animal to human and done really well.
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I don't think there will be a short term improvement though. And any improvement is only in case the senior citizen population is reduced by a significant margin, not just a few thousands. Pensions and healthcare costs will drastically reduce in such cases.
As I mentioned earlier everybody suffers from all kinds of bias including you and me.
The best way forward is to be open to all possibilities rather than coming to any individual conclusions.
Nobody has the intelligence or the aptitude or the information to make a definite call , rather at best put forward possibilities.
Anyways I was digging around and I found out something interesting , virus can be engineered perse without actually " enginnering " them . Ie make them seem like a natural mutation .
RNA viruses like from corona family have high mutation rate ,
Say one needs to release a bioagent without any footprint of it being human engineered
First one needs to identify a suitable virus candidate meeting your initial expectations , this is not a small task , requires lot of resources and data.
Very simplistically speaking say you identified and selected the one found in bats as your best option.
Next you need hundreds of animal test subjects with suitable external stimuli ( via trial and error ) to enhance the already high natural mutation rate of RNA virus. There will be significant no of naturally ( plus externally induced ) mutations within a span of 100 generations , beauty is none is engineered ie direct modification of the virus.
Then you need to select the strain which you find more suitable to adapt to humans .
Then you will need human test subjects to make sure that the selected strain has adapted to human and shows the required virulence and fatality .
Now you simply release the test subjects , I will choose the animal test subjects with the final selected strain for better chances of plausible deniability. Again beauty is none is engineered ie direct modification of the virus.
Finally understand that what I have presented here is a possibility not a definite conclusion like others are doing.
There will be hundreds of thousands of dead Europeans and americans at the end of this ( and probably a few million dead in other countries). These are real people dying.. Donating or selling a few thousand masks and ventilators won't heal broken families. If China thinks that it would tiptoe around killing a hundred thousand white people, it is mistaken.. They won't be able to try "Hug a chinese" stunt in Europe or America for decades...
In 2008-09 there was economic crisis spewing and then we had outbreak of swine flu, H1N1, same time 2009. That time europeans perhaps knew the nature of virus and how far it can damage. It remained through the world for like one whole year. Deaths were over 18000(WHO confirmed) and CDC estimated to over two hundred thousand.
Countries badly hit:
US:
infected: 113690
Dead: 3433
Brazil:
Infected: 58178
Dead: 2135
3rd: India
Infected: 33783
Dead: 2024
5th: China:
Infected : 120940
Dead: 800
Now exactly 10 years later, when there is trade war going on, things were uncertain , another outbreak of virus.
Can there be any co relation?
Countries badly hit:
US:
infected: 113690
Dead: 3433
Brazil:
Infected: 58178
Dead: 2135
3rd: India
Infected: 33783
Dead: 2024
5th: China:
Infected : 120940
Dead: 800
Now exactly 10 years later, when there is trade war going on, things were uncertain , another outbreak of virus.
Can there be any co relation?
Part of society mate..... We have our share of morons, and they hve been dealt by appropriately........
Whatsapp forwards fearmongering
Source of origin would be worth investigating
And not that it makes any difference similar incidents have been widely reported in Japan , USA.
But rather interesting is Western media is going specially gaga over India
I don't know about you all
But it brings tears of joy to note the extraordinary concern in Western media about Indian vices and their urge to turn a indian fart into a imaginery torrent of shit.
Its healthy competition to Indian presstitudes.
They are traveling into every utility vehicle that is allowed and for little extra fare those drivers board them. I have seen them in LPG trucks, Milk Tanker, Oil Tanker.
Now if someone is infected the money will be infected and driver can gift that virus to his family. While delivering LPG they can deliver Virus too. For few hundred bucks people can kill their own family.
News of Imran Khan Niazi disappearing and confining himself to isolation and leaving population to die.
As I mentioned earlier, we can't cover all the bases. What is happening to the poor, the contract worker, the construction worker, the daily wager, the hawkers, the small farmer, the agricultural labourer , the MSME , the agriculture sector, the old, the lonely, the ill & terminally ill, etc is truly tragic. But the GoI is banking on the notion that a great deal of them will survive the ordeal. There will be casualties too with nothing to do with the Wuhan Virus but which will nevertheless be a causal factor.
A lot of this could be mitigated if these people were taken into confidence and not thrown into rumours. Local admin can feed them for months easily, in their homes like UP is now trying to do. For months they are planning to deal with this virus and it's really unimpressive.
If Modiji told them first thing that they will be fed for months, right in their homes, that they will be provided money to buy and pay rent people won't run like this. Instead he over do his "aaj raat 12 baje se". Your PR agents will present you as some decisive leader who stopped outbreak of deadly virus with these clips later on but please communicate, allay their fears, pacify them, they trust you.
He will still announce economic package, if only he announced it before lock down it would have clam people a bit. Now that economic package it seems will completely be about industrial world and everyone else can take a hike.
Just a few tweaks and your genuine efforts can be very effective.
I promise you in the next 3 months, things are going to blow up in Paxtan. To think munaffiq qadiani qamar maamu desperately wanted an extension when he could've retired in Western Europe or Kaneda plus plenty of corner plots, a farm house & thousands of hectares of arable land in Punjab. But no, he actually opted for this in spite of 26th Feb & 5th Aug. As far as Dimran goes, he's beyond redemption. As it is given he's lineage, he wasn't the most intelligent one around. Add age & drug abuse to it. He's in a league & a world of his own.
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