Chinese Wuhan Virus Thread

_Anonymous_ said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1244307150018457601

We've moved from 35-40 infections a day to 120-125 in a weeks time. The worst is yet to come. 5th Apr onwards is going to be a crucial time you see if this quarantine has been effective.
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Currently we are where Italy was in the last week of Feb, or like Spain in the first week of March.

If we follow the same trajectory, then we should hit hundreds of cases a day within a week, followed by thousands the week after. Unless the lockdown is followed extremely strictly, which is unlikely to happen.
 
randomradio said:
Currently we are where Italy was in the last week of Feb, or like Spain in the first week of March.
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To be honest, I am getting a bit sick of people drawing various conclusions which are not even near reality.Lets do this :

1. The best fitting epidemic model for CoVID disease is SEIR. It was used in an article published in nature (Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China). The extended this to include phases of epidemic having different R0s.

1585544841608.png

2. Trouble with above model is that it is limited to Wuhan and assumed no significant spread to any other place. Basically it misses any impact for migration which is our reality.

3. So we need to run this model (SEIR Model) on per district or per locality basis, given we have population of each district and when initial infected people arrived due to migration.

This will give us a better sense when will cases peak in various parts of the country and over all peak in the country.
 
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Saaho said:
To be honest, I am getting a bit sick of people drawing various conclusions which are not even near reality.Lets do this :

1. The best fitting epidemic model for CoVID disease is SEIR. It was used in an article published in nature (Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China). The extended this to include phases of epidemic having different R0s.

View attachment 15086

2. Trouble with above model is that it is limited to Wuhan and assumed no significant spread to any other place. Basically it misses any impact for migration which is our reality.

3. So we need to run this model (SEIR Model) on per district or per locality basis, given we have population of each district and when initial infected people arrived due to migration.

This will give us a better sense when will cases peak in various parts of the country and over all peak in the country.
Click to expand...

One can assume that we have less cases than in Italy or Spain, even with the migration problem, since we introduced lockdown when our cases were in the single digits per day whereas Italy and Spain started lockdown when they were getting hundreds a day.

Also, with the migration problem, we will start seeing serious cases coming in 3-4 weeks later. 1-2 weeks for incubation followed by 1-2 weeks before the first of the patients become serious. But what we will see a week from now are the patients who have come in from foreign shores and are infecting those who they have come in contact with, no different from the cases in Italy and Spain.

So what's gonna happen is, if community spread started long ago, we will start seeing the effects by next week, with cases increasing in the hundreds, requiring an extension for lockdown. And in case the migrants have brought the disease to villages in large numbers, we will start seeing the effects only 3-4 weeks later, by which time, we are fvked.
 
Seems like some folks from China did it for China some times back : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024570v1.full.pdf

Their model is more complex because it does not assume that transportation network will be locked down. Our can be simpler, our migration happens ONCE.

randomradio said:
So what's gonna happen is, if community spread started long ago, we will start seeing the effects by next week, with cases increasing in the hundreds, requiring an extension for lockdown. And in case the migrants have brought the disease to villages in large numbers, we will start seeing the effects only 3-4 weeks later, by which time, we are fvked.
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SEIR model to a large extent incorporates community transmission.

randomradio said:
One can assume that we have less cases than in Italy or Spain, even with the migration problem, since we introduced lockdown when our cases were in the single digits per day whereas Italy and Spain started lockdown when they were getting hundreds a day.
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I would rather investigate / simulate it than assume.
 
Saaho said:
Well, in 21 days they should be able to stockpile testing kits, masks etc and some meds... After 21 days, essential transport will be resumed, people will still be pressured into not moving around but there won't be a formal lockdown like now.

During this time, they will ramp up testing infra. May be some support infra like ventilators.
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Already I am seeing on Twitter that Commies have started Narrative Building
Like this

1 ) This disease was brought into India by
Rich people

2 ) This disease was brought by Passport
Holders BUT Ration Card Holders are suffering

I had written here on 25 th , that this lockdown might result in such Anti Rich propaganda

Perfect breeding ground for Commies and Naxals
 
STEPHEN COHEN said:
1 ) This disease was brought into India by
Rich people

2 ) This disease was brought by Passport
Holders BUT Ration Card Holders are suffering

I had written here on 25 th , that this lockdown might result in such Anti Rich propaganda

Perfect breeding ground for Commies and Naxals
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The biggest anti-capitalist propaganda was in 70s and 80s and may be in mid 90s movies in which all factory owners were shown to be

1. Anti workers.
2. Poor HATERs.
3. Responsible for all things evil.
4. Having beautiful daughters who always used to fall in love with Mithun Chkraborty one way or the other.
5. Being opposed to marriage of the said daughter and poor Mithun Chakraborty
6. Had teams of goons.
7. Sometime had a son who used to be an *censored*, drunkard and rapist at the same time. Often used to rape Mithun's family member or one of his close relative.

So let them build the narrative, India has seen worse propaganda.
 
STEPHEN COHEN said:
Cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba says no plans to extend lockdown period
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I'd take it with a pinch of salt. The GoI is gearing up towards extending the lockdown till the end of next month. Of course, they aren't going to announce it today, for obvious reasons. What happens from today to the 10th - 12th April will to a large extent determine the future course of action.

By all indicatons, we ought to be prepared to see 10,000 infected by 10th April. Anything less would be a miracle, anything more bad news & then it depends on how bad that bad news is , dictated purely by the numbers. It's around then that you'd see an announcement of an extension by a further 15 days .

Let's be prepared for the long haul. Don't be surprised if post 30th April, a further quarantine is announced ranging from 15-30 days too. The only way we can beat this is breaking the link. Once this spreads into the community en masse, it's every man for himself & God against all.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
I'd take it with a pinch of salt. The GoI is gearing up towards extending the lockdown till the end of next month. Of course, they aren't going to announce it today, for obvious reasons. What happens from today to the 10th - 12th April will to a large extent determine the future course of action.

By all indicatons, we ought to be prepared to see 10,000 infected by 10th April. Anything less would be a miracle, anything more bad news & then it depends on how bad that bad news is , dictated purely by the numbers. It's around then that you'd see an announcement of an extension by a further 15 days .

Let's be prepared for the long haul. Don't be surprised if post 30th April, a further quarantine is announced ranging from 15-30 days too. The only way we can beat this is breaking the link. Once this spreads into the community en masse, it's every man for himself & God against all.
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Any extension in lockdown would see widespread country wide violence
 
STEPHEN COHEN said:
Already I am seeing on Twitter that Commies have started Narrative Building
Like this

1 ) This disease was brought into India by
Rich people

2 ) This disease was brought by Passport
Holders BUT Ration Card Holders are suffering

I had written here on 25 th , that this lockdown might result in such Anti Rich propaganda

Perfect breeding ground for Commies and Naxals
Click to expand...
What's narrative in this?

People who were infected were allowed to enter, even when they can afford test nothing was asked from them before letting them in country. They were brought by special planes and what not.

However Indians living hand to mouth are left to die on roads for what? They will die before their test is even done while those in high rises sharing lockdown dishes on Twitter.

Get your head out of a$$ of communism and capitalism labeling and see what's happening. Who brought this and who is paying with blood and life.
 
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Saaho said:
There are state elections in Bihar and WB.
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The poor are realising that they can stay safe by masks and social distancing

A forcible extension will be counter productive , it will be looked at as
"Tughlaqi Farmaan " -- ie times and decrees of Tugalaq

Let every man take care of his health
BlackOpsIndia said:
What's narrative in this?

People who were infected were allowed to enter, even when they can afford test nothing was asked from them before letting them in country. They were brought by special planes and what not.

However Indians living hand to mouth are left to die on roads for what? They will die before their test is even done while those in high rises sharing lockdown dishes on Twitter.

Get your head out of a$$ of communism and capitalism labeling and see what's happening. Who brought this and who is paying with blood and life.
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So why were they not tested and quarantined

Where will you hold.15 LAKH people

It is not just rich who go abroad

What about the workers in the Gulf

Without 70 billion Remittances How long will Indian Economy survive
 
STEPHEN COHEN said:
Any extension in lockdown would see widespread country wide violence
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Not at all. You'd see that only if vital supplies are disrupted. In any case within 10 days, all major populated areas will see token deployment of SRP's RAF & CAPF's to curb restiveness & promote social distancing before larger forces are deployed to enforce it.

As it is, news of these forces being deployed in SoBo - M.A.Road, E. R. Road, Dongri , JJ Hospital, Noor Baug and other peaceful dominated localities are doing the rounds of WhatsApp. Can't confirm as newspapers aren't reaching my doorstep since the past 5 days.
 
STEPHEN COHEN said:
Already I am seeing on Twitter that Commies have started Narrative Building
Like this

1 ) This disease was brought into India by
Rich people

2 ) This disease was brought by Passport
Holders BUT Ration Card Holders are suffering

I had written here on 25 th , that this lockdown might result in such Anti Rich propaganda

Perfect breeding ground for Commies and Naxals
Click to expand...
But all these narratives do not seem to work in UP under Yogiji. Till now, only Yogiji has shown the ability to tackle everykind of problem with ease, whether it is CAA protests or Covid19.
 
STEPHEN COHEN said:
So why were they not tested and quarantined

Where will you hold.15 LAKH people
Click to expand...
It's definitely easier than holding 1.35 billion people, no? Who let them keep coming?

STEPHEN COHEN said:
It is not just rich who go abroad

What about the workers in the Gulf
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They are poor than those walking on foot? Those workers in gulf, are they?

15 Lac came from outside, you have tested 35,000 so far in many weeks after outbreak. Thermal scanning means zilch when incubation can take upto 14days, those graphs, stats can at best be used as sampling data. We have no idea what we are into and you are worried about PR problem. Both sides have experts to build image, that's the only thing they do, they can do it well without useful idiots, stop arguing for sake of it.
 
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