A very good analysis, I myself did not support Putin, because of corruption in the country, you are right, Putin's support has grown in the country, the West has only made itself worse with sanctions and strengthened Putin's power
It's gonna get worse for the Russians by the end of the year. Especially with a major global recession coming up.
Worst case, Putin falls really sick or dies in a very short time. He needs to at least be healthy enough to work for the next 5 years to make the economy stable and chart the road for military and economic modernisation, or Russia will fall in deeper trouble. His demise could even lead to a civil war.