Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
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Dude, what the frig are you talking about? Of course they are a party to the war. They led the assault on West-led mercenaries.
No, you obviously don't know the story. The US asked for Russian permission before they decimated the Wagner forces. The tensions were long before 2022.
Then if they get attacked, it will be up to France to go to war with Russia.
Lol, no.
Then it's up to the French to weather any attack without bringing any danger to the French union.
Possibly. But not how it works.
Article 5 does not apply if a NATO member goes around attacking others or entering warzones in disputed regions.
The only chance for a NATO fight with Russia is if the US is game too.
So attacking them is no different to attacking Syria.
Nope.
It won't.
Don't bet on it. Russia really doesn't want to try escalating with NATO right now.
Russia should avoid the area like the US did during the Vietnam War.
Article 5 always applies if NATO soil is attacked. The only case it might not apply, is if France entered Russia itself. But NATO being in another country Russia doesn't want them in legally, does not invalidate article 5. It is Russia who should not be in Ukraine, not France. France would be there legally. It's like it Russia declared a stretch of international war theirs and then went round attacking the soil of any NATO member that entered it.
I wouldn't bet against that. Russian is not strong right now, my bet is they would avoid escalation at all costs.
Nope. Not if a member state happily abuses said privilege.
Lol, sure. There are plenty of NATO members that do not want war with Russia, never mind the Russians alone. This even includes the US. Hell, even the UK.
Whatever circus act Macron wants to put on will be restricted to just that, an act.
Ukraine starts building first US-design nuclear reactors
Netishyn, Ukraine (AFP) April 13, 2024 - Ukraine has started constructing two US-designed reactors at a nuclear power plant in the west of the country following devastating Russian attacks on its energy network.
www.spacewar.com
By being in another country at the request of the elected government? You do have some stupid double standard surrounding Russian.
No sensible person ever wants war but Russia is the culprit here and they are already stretched, they can't afford an escalation, or to give us an excuse.
That depends how Russia responds. After the failed Iranian attack, Putin must be wondering just how many of his warheads would actually get through, knowing full well that most of ours will, old missiles or not.
Nope. They asked if Russia had any force in the area, as part of the deconfliction line. Russia went with its usual "plausible deniability" bullshit and said "deary me, whatever are you saying, of course we have no one attacking you, that would be silly" and then America replied "okay then, I'mma just fry those guys then". Russia's goal was that, if it worked, good; if it failed, they wouldn't care.
Department Of Defense Press Briefing by Lieutenant General Harrigian via teleconference fr
STAFF: Good morning. Thanks for your patience as we were working through a few technical issues, but I think we have everything ready.So today we continue our series of press briefings to update you
www.defense.gov
Pentagon Says U.S. Was Told No Russians Involved In Syria Attack
The Pentagon says U.S. military commanders were told by their Russian counterparts that there were no Russians in a paramilitary force whose attack on a base in eastern Syria earlier this month led to a massive counterstrike by U.S. forces.
www.rferl.org
"The French union"? There's been no such thing since 1958. Maybe update your geopolitical database.
Pop quiz! Article 5 has been raised only once in history so far. Can you tell the class what were the circumstances?
Nope. Don't need the USA. As things stand now, Russia is getting ground up in Ukraine, suffering colossal losses despite an overwhelming superiority in artillery and airpower. With France, Poland, perhaps Sweden and Finland too, Russia would be completely pummeled. And if Russia commits the error of attacking EU/NATO soil, then in return Russian soil becomes fair game for EU/NATO and within a week there wouldn't be a factory left standing in Russia.
If Russia commits the mistake of going nuclear, replace "within a week" by "within a couple hours".
And what, pray tell, is an abuse of privilege?
Nobody in NATO wants war, that's why they joined NATO to begin with. So that hostile, revisionist bully states would be deterred from their imperialist expansion plans.
But the thing about war is, the aggressor will not be deterred by the victim's veto. So nobody gives a *censored* about what NATO countries want or want not, what matters is what Russia wants. And Russia has been remarkably clear about what it wants: everything. Russian TV is already fantasizing about annexing Lisbon (yes, in Portugal)... So as was pointed out before, even if you choose dishonor, you still get war.
after the 9/11 attacks. But it is all political at the end of the day and the fine details for what can trigger article 5 are largely undefined.
I guess an interesting scenario would be if attacks are conducted from NATO soil onto another nation. Would that 3rd party nation be allowed to retaliate without drawing in the rest of NATO?
For example, what if Gaddafi back in 2011 had struck back at NATO assets directly in Europe/the Med? Would that be grounds for triggering article 5 even though in this scenario NATO nations were the original aggressors?
In the context of the Ukraine war, it would be like France conducting air operations over Ukraine from bases in Poland and Romania. French fighters would be legitimate targets as long as they were in Ukraine, I don't think anybody would argue that, but what about air launched cruise missiles from NATO territory into Ukraine? The missiles themselves would become valid targets as soon as they crossed into Ukrainian airspace but would a premature interception trigger Article 5?
What if France started attacking Russian supply depots in Donbass (recognized by Russia as Russian territory) or even Russia proper, from NATO territory? Would a Russian response to these staging areas trigger Article 5?
NATO assets are already giving targeting data to the Ukrainians in the Black Sea which is just a step below directly targeting Russian assets themselves and Russia doesn't seem to be doing much to prevent this. While this is a hostile action by NATO against Russia, I think we all agree that if Russia shot down one of these ISR assets it would definitely trigger Article 5 or at least some type of retaliation by NATO.
I think the triggering of Article 5 really will just be on the whims of what the alliance feels like in any given scenario.
Nope. They asked if Russia had any force in the area, as part of the deconfliction line. Russia went with its usual "plausible deniability" bullshit and said "deary me, whatever are you saying, of course we have no one attacking you, that would be silly" and then America replied "okay then, I'mma just fry those guys then". Russia's goal was that, if it worked, good; if it failed, they wouldn't care.
Department Of Defense Press Briefing by Lieutenant General Harrigian via teleconference fr
STAFF: Good morning. Thanks for your patience as we were working through a few technical issues, but I think we have everything ready.So today we continue our series of press briefings to update youwww.defense.govPentagon Says U.S. Was Told No Russians Involved In Syria Attack
The Pentagon says U.S. military commanders were told by their Russian counterparts that there were no Russians in a paramilitary force whose attack on a base in eastern Syria earlier this month led to a massive counterstrike by U.S. forces.
Nope. The Russians withdrew air support from the mercenaries when the US asked them if the men were theirs. That's tacit permission for an execution.
Semantics, that's why I didn't capitalize "Union." I'm referring to not just France but all overseas territories as well. I am not referring to the French Empire.
Definitely not a Russian attack on NATO forces in a non-NATO country.
Yes. Even before the war I have been saying the Russians need another 10-15 years, ie around 2030-35 to fully modernize their military to meet or exceed current NATO standards. This opinion has obviously been vindicated since 2022.
If you take the US and Turkey out of the equation, then by 2030 or so, the Russian ground and air forces will significantly exceed the strength of the remaining European forces.
So, yes, the Russians screwed up by moving slowly, but the 2 years of fighting has given them combat experienced troops, which NATO completely lacks. This is not a gap easily bridged.
As for nuclear war, it's obvious both sides will get annihilated, but at least the Russians are attempting to build a BMD that stops ICBMs.
Unilaterally attacking another country, receive an attack and then go running to NATO for help. I don't believe Art 5 exists to humor the eccentricities of member states.
And they might want to keep it that way, even at the cost of French troops in Ukraine.
Ah, yes, let's put fear in the populace by exaggerating the threat.
Art 5 is based on consensus. And France lacks the political pull to engage NATO into a war with Russia via unilateral actions that makes them the aggressor in Ukraine.
Only the US has the ability to pull NATO into a war with the Russians.
One thing Russia is not ahead of the US/NATO/Israel on - air defence. This is equivalent to an Arrow 3 or David's Sling launcher getting taken out by a Tochka or Fateh-110. 
t.me
liveuamap.com
A Mi-8 helicopter was destroyed in Russia
Крымский ветер
⚡️В Джанкое прилетело по аэродрому Этот военный аэродром — главный логистический хаб для российской армии, это место базирования ударных вертолетов. Интересно, что взрывы начались до объявления тревоги в воинской части.
t.me
Violent explosions after suspected missile strike at Dzhankoi airfield in occupied Crimea Armiansk, - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
Violent explosions after suspected missile strike at Dzhankoi airfield in occupied Crimea . Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues...
liveuamap.com
A Mi-8 helicopter was destroyed in Russia
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I understand that at the end of the day political consensus is required and invocation/initiation of article 5 isn't clear cut.France defending Ukraine makes them the aggressor?
Pack of liars.
I guess the question about article 5 that I have yet to see answered is if it theoretically gives carte blanche to any NATO nation to initiate military action from its soil and not expect retaliation lest the threat of the rest of NATO be called in.
Gaddafi was a poor example since NATO was already committed to deposing him. I used Ukraine as an example to stay OT but here is another one. Let's say Turkey and Israel use Turkish airbases to conduct strikes inside of Iran. Maybe in support of some ethnic rebels or to damage nuclear stockpiling sites, whatever. If Iran retaliates against those staging areas, à la their recent attack on Israel, could that not be used as grounds to initiate A5 against Iran and draw in NATO to conduct a broader campaign against them?
I personally think this interpretation of A5 could be used in the future for conflicts with more political consensus. Like a future succession crisis in Belarus or if there is a third invasion of Ukraine.
In an act of aggression it does not apply but basing French troops in Kyiv to defend Ukraine, at the request of the recognised government, is not an act of aggression by any interpretation. Otherwise NATO forces acting within international law anywhere in or around Europe could be attacked.
@randomradio
Try tell me Russian air defence is better than NATO air defence again.
liveuamap.com
Try tell me Russian air defence is better than NATO air defence again.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence claims destroying Mi-8 helicopter in Samara Samara - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
Ukrainian Military Intelligence claims destroying Mi-8 helicopter in Samara . Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests...
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The territory of Russian Tatarstan was attacked by a Ukrainian drone. Complain to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Although they claim to have shot down a drone. Meanwhile, air raid sirens sounded in Kazan. Employees of aviation and oil refineries were evacuated due to the threat of UAVs. Airports in Nizhnyokamsk and Kazan are temporarily closed. The Kovyor plan was introduced there.