Ukraine - Russia Conflict

BMD said:
This means that people are free to bomb Russian forces in Syria, and if Russia strikes back then it is an act of war yes? Equally, by your logic, we could bomb Russian forces in Ukraine right now and if Russia strikes back, only then is it an act of war. See what happens when you type without thinking.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1778777443748204905
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Er... If French forces bomb Russian forces in Syria, then yes, it's an act of war by default, even before a Russian response. It's about the flag you are carrying at the time of the strike.

If French forces are pretending to be Syrian opposition and attack Russian forces, and the French pretend those are not French units, then it's not an act of war. That's a thin line they are walking there.

So if French forces come into an established warzone and conduct operations against the Russians, even without shooting first, then it means they are announcing participation in the war. If they are attacked, then any escalation depends on what the French plan to do after that.
 
randomradio said:
Er... If French forces bomb Russian forces in Syria, then yes, it's an act of war by default, even before a Russian response. It's about the flag you are carrying at the time of the strike.
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How is it not the same as Russia bombing French troops in Ukraine. Russians in Syria are carrying the flag of a Syrian dictatorship.
randomradio said:
If French forces are pretending to be Syrian opposition and attack Russian forces, and the French pretend those are not French units, then it's not an act of war. That's a thin line they are walking there.
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I'm sure you've heard Israel's opinion on that wrt an Iranian strike. Isn't Russia pretending to be Syrian in Syria? So France bombing Assad's forces and whoops they killed some Russians too.
randomradio said:
So if French forces come into an established warzone and conduct operations against the Russians, even without shooting first, then it means they are announcing participation in the war. If they are attacked, then any escalation depends on what the French plan to do after that.
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No, Russia are the ones who would be escalating. In the Vietnam War the Soviets had advisors in North Vietnam and for that reason, several large areas were avoided for most of the war. They didn't bomb above a certain parallel. French troops in Kyiv would be the same thing.
 
randomradio said:
Supplies, ISR and mercenary support from NATO to direct intervention. It's a massive escalation. Just one step away from full scale war between France/Poland/Baltic states and Russia.
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It'll be full scale war with NATO if it comes to that. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the only massive escalation, everything else thereafter was inevitable.

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

Ukraine’s Yanukovych: EU ties a ‘key priority’

Improving ties with the European Union is a “key priority” for Ukraine, the country’s newly elected President Viktor Yanukovych said Monday as the EU expressed support for plans t…
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2010:
"Our priorities will include integration into the European Union"
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Protest in 2013 was democratic and justified. Election promises were broken by the incumbent.
 
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Rare, high-quality footage of drone air battles in Ukraine, filmed with an external camera, has been published. The video shows two attacks by Russian FPV drones on Ukrainian drones. The drone models are unknown, and the location and date of the attacks have not been reported.

 
@Rajput Lion

This is the "high tempo" surge ops:

vvs.PNG


^^ That was Feb 2023, a year into the war.

This is by August, when they surged again (but couldn't attain initial levels):

In the first few months of the war in Ukraine, the VKS was flying as many as 150 to 300 sorties per day—compared with the peacetime rate of roughly 60 per day. Even dropping to 100 sorties a day since, the VKS has basically flown double its normal annual hours since the beginning of the war.
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In short, they are surging operations whenever a new squadron with new airframes is rotated into the theatre. But they aren't able to maintain that burst rate of operations for long and the sortie rate drops off fairly quickly following the initial surge...until another squadron is rotated yet again.

That RAND link also has analysis regarding what this means for RuAF's airframes:

For example, if an aircraft is designed for 3,000 flight hours with an expected use of 30 years, the aircraft will fly roughly 100 hours per year. If, during an inspection, wear on the plane is found to be more or less than expected, the projected remaining hours are adjusted accordingly. These numbers dictate all sorts of planning, from fuel procurement to ground maintenance to pilot training.
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While newer Russian aircraft are designed for between 3,500 and 4,500 flight hours, with some as high as 6,000, those Soviet-era aircraft were designed to be in the air only 2,000 to 3,500 hours. Although several platforms, such as the MiG-31, have been upgraded to extend their service life, many of these older planes (Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, MiG-29) are nearing the end of their service lives. These have, at best, 500 to 1,000 hours remaining.
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And what that implies for the higher-than-peacetime usage of airframes:

This extra use is, by commonly used measures, equivalent to losing roughly 34 aircraft since the start of the invasion. However, this only captures the losses relative to the life span of newer airframes. Because the older airframes have so few remaining hours, it's actually equivalent to losing about 57 VKS airframes.

To be clear, the exact composition of the VKS force and the precise age and historical usage of all its airframes are not precisely known. Further, some VKS tactical aircraft aren't operating in Ukraine; they are either harassing NATO aircraft or being used for training. These sorties are in addition to previously mentioned Ukraine-related sorties and are in excess of the usage calculated above. They are being conservatively excluded from the usage being applied to the total force. These factors likely mean that my estimate of 57 imputed losses is an undercount.

This results in total true losses closer to 187 VKS airframes. Extrapolating this, the VKS will continue to lose 30 to 60 airframes a year from combat, accident, and imputed losses.
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You see why surging sortie rate is not sustainable long-term. Having airframes on hand that are certified for way more flight hours (F/A-18 Block-III for example is 10,000-hour rated) not only allows you to generate more sorties even in peacetime but also enables you to maintain that surge rate of ops for a longer period if need be, during war.
 
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Éric Béranger, PDG du missilier MBDA : « Nos missiles vont protéger les populations ukrainiennes »

Éric Béranger, CEO of missile maker MBDA: “Our missiles will protect the Ukrainian populations”

ARMAMENTS. Éric Béranger, CEO of MBDA, explains exclusively to JDD how his company – under fire from criticism – will produce more Aster missiles.

With kyiv's needs against Russia and the Houthi attacks against the National Navy in the Red Sea, the need to possess Aster missiles is becoming pressing. Hypersonic, this unique machine is capable of destroying aircraft or missiles with an almost immediate reaction time.

Thus, its production will be multiplied by six during the year 2025. A new pace which begins after the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, publicly inveighed against the European ammunition manufacturer.
 
BMD said:
How is it not the same as Russia bombing French troops in Ukraine. Russians in Syria are carrying the flag of a Syrian dictatorship.
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All countries operating with their flags are not attacking each other. The ones fighting each other are mercenaries.

BMD said:
I'm sure you've heard Israel's opinion on that wrt an Iranian strike. Isn't Russia pretending to be Syrian in Syria? So France bombing Assad's forces and whoops they killed some Russians too.
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The same hasn't been done in Syria against Russian forces.

The only 2 oops moments were Turkey's shooting down of the Su-24 and Israel using a Russian transport to hide themselves.

BMD said:
No, Russia are the ones who would be escalating. In the Vietnam War the Soviets had advisors in North Vietnam and for that reason, several large areas were avoided for most of the war. They didn't bomb above a certain parallel. French troops in Kyiv would be the same thing.
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Many Chinese troops died in the Vietnam War. The SU also lost some troops. The Korean War too saw the deaths of Soviet troops.
 
BMD said:
It'll be full scale war with NATO if it comes to that. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the only massive escalation, everything else thereafter was inevitable.

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

Ukraine’s Yanukovych: EU ties a ‘key priority’

Improving ties with the European Union is a “key priority” for Ukraine, the country’s newly elected President Viktor Yanukovych said Monday as the EU expressed support for plans t…
www.sandiegouniontribune.com www.sandiegouniontribune.com


Protest in 2013 was democratic and justified. Election promises were broken by the incumbent.
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If France and Poland declare war on Russia, then eventually NATO will get pulled into it too. But NATO doesn't have any justification for NATO intervention. France and Poland can have their own private war with Russia though.
 
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