People's Republic of China (PRC) : News & Discussions

BMD

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
12,754
2,574
Quit funny really, China probably spent several $bn on their little tantrum.


So, Just How Bad Is China Right Now, Really?

Its economy isn't as robust as thought and its housing market is under duress.



Since Covid struck in 2020, it seems China has been on a different cycle compared to the rest of the world. It experienced the slowdown before the rest of the world and then started growing out of it much sooner than most of the developed world.

But then something changed this year as China once again started locking down its cities and businesses as the rest of the world reopened. Life is back to normal in most of the world after multiple rounds of vaccinations. But China's zero Covid policy which worked well with SARS, is coming back to haunt the country as it tries to contain Covid case by case in every single city. It is like trying to contain air, but at the risk of its businesses and financial economy. So, what is the right balance?

Inflation has been the global problem after Covid as central banks pumped so much money into the financial system so fast that it caused a boost in all producer and consumer prices. The system and infrastructure were unable to keep up. Initially, demand was boosted to jump start the economy out of a lull, but supply got so tight that prices shot up to a level that killed that very same demand. Central banks are now raising rates as fast they can to curb this inflation, actions that are causing even further tightening as companies and households feel the pinch of stagflation amid a global economy that is unable to grow due to so much debt.

Even though inflation is coming down from its lofty levels, it is still quite high compared to past decades. Here on Monday morning the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.75% and the seven-day reverse repo rate to 2% from 2.1%, catching everyone by surprise. This was a feeble attempt to provide a bit of relief to the economy to stem its decline, because at the same time the central bank withdrew liquidity from the banking system by issuing 400 billion yuan of MLF (medium-term lending facility) funds, only partially rolling over the 600 billion yuan of loans maturing this week. It seemed rather contradictory.

After June's surge in economic data boosted by China's infrastructure incentives and credit growth, July data has come in much softer as industrial production rose 3.8% from a year ago, lower than June's 3.9% and missing economists' forecast of a 4.3% increase. Retail sales grew at 2.7% year over year, also lower than June's 3.1% and horribly lower than the consensus estimate of 5.0%.

Fixed-asset investment in China was up 5.7% in the first seven months of the year, also lower than the 6.2% projected by economists. July's credit growth data came in lower than market's expectations, too

Most thought that China was on a path to "restimulate" the economy out of its Covid-induced lockdowns, but in effect the June move was just to stem the decline. The underlying economic data and momentum in the housing market is causing a lot more havoc than most care to admit.

China's housing market is one of the largest asset markets in the world, rounding to $62 trillion. And this housing market is crashing with residential property sales plunging 28.6% in July.

We all know that the Chinese housing market rests on speculation and constant demand from consumers using very low interest rates to pick up homes. But as real rates are now rallying, consumers have started boycotting mortgage payments as they do not trust that these developments will be completed. This is causing even more stress to lenders and the government is doing whatever it can to boost housing and property sales, to no avail.

It is no doubt that the global economy is suffering a big economic slowdown, but the issue is that this time the one tool that governments always employ to get them out of their slump, i.e. printing money, cannot be used as inflation is just too high. Most tend to focus on the US housing market post the 2008 collapse, and even though US corporations and households may be in a better shape, it does not mean the same for the Chinese economy or the Chinese consumer. Perhaps President Xi Jinping's 5.5% GDP growth target for 2022 is looking more and more like wishful thinking than reality.
 
Last edited:

Innominate

Well-Known member
Jun 23, 2021
1,386
885
California
Quit funny really, China probably spent several $bn on their little tantrum.


So, Just How Bad Is China Right Now, Really?

Its economy isn't as robust as thought and its housing market is under duress.



Since Covid struck in 2020, it seems China has been on a different cycle compared to the rest of the world. It experienced the slowdown before the rest of the world and then started growing out of it much sooner than most of the developed world.

But then something changed this year as China once again started locking down its cities and businesses as the rest of the world reopened. Life is back to normal in most of the world after multiple rounds of vaccinations. But China's zero Covid policy which worked well with SARS, is coming back to haunt the country as it tries to contain Covid case by case in every single city. It is like trying to contain air, but at the risk of its businesses and financial economy. So, what is the right balance?

Inflation has been the global problem after Covid as central banks pumped so much money into the financial system so fast that it caused a boost in all producer and consumer prices. The system and infrastructure were unable to keep up. Initially, demand was boosted to jump start the economy out of a lull, but supply got so tight that prices shot up to a level that killed that very same demand. Central banks are now raising rates as fast they can to curb this inflation, actions that are causing even further tightening as companies and households feel the pinch of stagflation amid a global economy that is unable to grow due to so much debt.

Even though inflation is coming down from its lofty levels, it is still quite high compared to past decades. Here on Monday morning the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.75% and the seven-day reverse repo rate to 2% from 2.1%, catching everyone by surprise. This was a feeble attempt to provide a bit of relief to the economy to stem its decline, because at the same time the central bank withdrew liquidity from the banking system by issuing 400 billion yuan of MLF (medium-term lending facility) funds, only partially rolling over the 600 billion yuan of loans maturing this week. It seemed rather contradictory.

After June's surge in economic data boosted by China's infrastructure incentives and credit growth, July data has come in much softer as industrial production rose 3.8% from a year ago, lower than June's 3.9% and missing economists' forecast of a 4.3% increase. Retail sales grew at 2.7% year over year, also lower than June's 3.1% and horribly lower than the consensus estimate of 5.0%.

Fixed-asset investment in China was up 5.7% in the first seven months of the year, also lower than the 6.2% projected by economists. July's credit growth data came in lower than market's expectations, too

Most thought that China was on a path to "restimulate" the economy out of its Covid-induced lockdowns, but in effect the June move was just to stem the decline. The underlying economic data and momentum in the housing market is causing a lot more havoc than most care to admit.

China's housing market is one of the largest asset markets in the world, rounding to $62 trillion. And this housing market is crashing with residential property sales plunging 28.6% in July.

We all know that the Chinese housing market rests on speculation and constant demand from consumers using very low interest rates to pick up homes. But as real rates are now rallying, consumers have started boycotting mortgage payments as they do not trust that these developments will be completed. This is causing even more stress to lenders and the government is doing whatever it can to boost housing and property sales, to no avail.

It is no doubt that the global economy is suffering a big economic slowdown, but the issue is that this time the one tool that governments always employ to get them out of their slump, i.e. printing money, cannot be used as inflation is just too high. Most tend to focus on the US housing market post the 2008 collapse, and even though US corporations and households may be in a better shape, it does not mean the same for the Chinese economy or the Chinese consumer. Perhaps President Xi Jinping's 5.5% GDP growth target for 2022 is looking more and more like wishful thinking than reality.
A war is a good way to distract the population from a collapsing economy.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: BMD

BMD

Senior member
Dec 4, 2017
12,754
2,574
 

Innominate

Well-Known member
Jun 23, 2021
1,386
885
California
Is Xi Jinping under house arrest ?

Beijing Airport canceled more than 6,000 domestic flights and international flights. Also, all tickets sold by the high-speed rail are suspended, and the rail is completely stopped until further notice

For the last two years, there was no place like home for Chinese President Xi Jinping. He had not moved out of his home in Beijing and was not meeting any world leader, not even any prominent CCP leader.

However, on September 14th, the tyrant leader finally moved out of his home for an SCO meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. After a hiatus of two years, Xi departed for Central Asia by a special flight and attended the 22nd Summit of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

But, despite being the founding member of SCO, the Chinese leader did not actively participate in the summit. He didn’t give any memorable speech at the inauguration of the summit, nor did he meet Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, or any other major leader of the group on the sidelines of the summit.

Furthermore, he didn’t have an informal dinner with his bonhomie Putin due to “COVID-19 concerns”. It was later discovered that Xi had troubledly left for Beijing before the official winding up of the SCO Summit. Maybe he was worried and afraid about something huge and sinister.

Now, the reports coming out of Beijing could rock the world. Global media has no idea what is going on with Xi Jinping at his home. Honestly, at this point those who want the tyrant to remain in power should forget about his third term; it appears that CCP veterans have already crushed his lust for power.

Chinese netizens have stormed Social Media timelines with reports that Beijing is under military seizure. The world, though, has no idea of what’s happening because the city is eventually cut off from the world.

According to News Highland Vision, former Chinese President, Hu Jintao and former Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao had persuaded Song Ping, the former member of the Standing Committee and retaken control of the Central Guard Bureau (CGB).

For those who don’t know, the purpose of CGB is to provide close personnel protection to members of the Politburo Standing Committee and other CCP leaders. The committee is also responsible for the protection of Xi Jinping.

As Hu and Wen retook control of CGB, information was conveyed to Jiang Zeng and the Central Committee members in Beijing via telephone. The original standing committee members abolished Xi’s military authority at that very moment.

Xi returned to Beijing on the evening of 16th September after learning the truth. However, he was detained at the airport and most probably is currently being held under house arrest in Zhongnanhai’s house.

A roadmap was already prepared

The current situation is being controlled by Hu Jintao. If the reports are believed to be true, this is one of the biggest happenings in China after the Chinese Virus outbreak in 2019. For the last ten days, political meetings are taking place behind the closed doors and in utter secrecy. Here is the comprehensive information of those last ten days:

On September 8th, the reform meeting of the finalizing committee was chaired by two vice-chairmen. The chairman of the operations, who is a loyalist to Xi, was removed from the meeting. Commander Li Qiaoming sat in the middle of the first row under the stage to participate in the meeting. Li Qiaoming, a General of PLA had already made his mind that he would no longer accept the diktats of the Chinese President.

Now as Xi was out in Samarkand, Hu and Wen met Song Ping and persuaded him to turn rogue against Xi Jinping, who is about to go for his third term in power. Ping agreed to do so and then, Xi was detained by his own CGB guards.

The former CCP leaders foresaw that Xi Jinping’s loyalists would undoubtedly use aggression to topple his house arrest. Here, Li Qiaoming entered the scene. Qiaoming now has turned Beijing into a military fort. A large 80km convoy entered Beijing and closed all possible exits of the city. According to the source, the PLA is blocking highways and is currently said to be detaining protesters.

As the political unrest in Beijing was made known to Russian intelligence, Russian energy giant Gazprom momentarily halted gas flow through the Power of Siberia pipeline that sent Russian gas to China. Though Russia justified the cut as “scheduled maintenance work,” one can predict clearly that it was done to support Xi Jinping by making the protests uglier.

Time to Open up says Rebel CCP !

Moreover, the netizens on Social Media have reported that over the last two days, Beijing airport canceled more than 6,000 domestic flights and international flights. Also, all tickets sold by the high-speed rail are suspended, and the rail is completely put out of function until further notice. Hours later, Chinese Civil Aviation notified airlines with Boeing MAX aircraft to resume their service.

Now, let’s look at what happened yesterday. National defense was discussed at a Military Commission meeting yesterday. What remarkable here is the presence of Shenyang Kang in that meeting, who was fired by Xi Jinping. Li Qiaoming was again seated in the middle of the front row.

The current first elder of the CCP, Song Ping, who is 105 years old, made a prominent appearance at another meeting at Xiaoping Memory Hall and voiced his anti-Xi attitude. Ping demanded that the country undergo changes and opens up. According to him, the CCP should give this the highest priority for the sake of the nation. Almost every known CCP leader was present at the memory hall except for two, Xi Jinping himself and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Wang Yi rushes to Kissinger

The most suspicious event recently is Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s sudden visit to New York. He met with Henry Kissinger. On September 21, when Song Ping was irking against Xi Jinping, Wang Yi met with the former US secretary of state.

Here, Mr. Wang planned a surprise visit and congratulated Dr. Kissinger on his upcoming 100th birthday, calling him an old and good friend of the Chinese people. Kissinger is close to veteran CCP members and he made historic contributions to the establishment and development of China-United States relations. Doesn’t this sudden meeting raise questions about the real purpose behind it ?

Though, nothing is coming out in open, and no such discussions are available on Weibo. However, based on Xi’s behavior over the past two years, it appears likely that Xi has always had an idea that CCP veterans are against him. The veterans had been urging Xi to modify his strict demeanor. But, Xi’s hunger for power was unquestionably standing in the way.

If these reports are accurate we can say that Xi’s tenure has come to a dead end. When this happens, Hu Jintao deserves all the credit for making this possible.


What's going on here are online chicoms trolling the internet or is this likely happening? :unsure: