People's Republic of China (PRC) : News & Discussions

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
10,007
7,643
India
The two camps are already drawn up. Russia + China vs USA.
India is too less powerful to be a pole of its own.

I hope we do not play this game again with stratagems of 1950s or 60s. They failed us entirely.

I thought you said India is merely 2 times poorer than the US today?
 

Lolwa

Well-Known member
Feb 6, 2020
875
663
Delhi
Basically, Doval is not in support of an alliance. He's not waiting for elections. He actually said that officially to the US, that India is its own side.

The world is going multipolar, which the US is doing its best to prevent.
I don't think world is going multipolar. It's at best going bi-polar. Multipolar is the new Non-alignment our amazing JNU diplomats are now peddling after failure of every nehruvian policy since forever. There will be Two major poles of U.S and China and then sub-poles like which already exist like Turkey,Iran and Russia we are also a sub-pole. These sub-poles will have allegiances/partnership to the bigger poles. In that sense even Pakistan is also a sub-pole...
 

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
I thought you said India is merely 2 times poorer than the US today?
No, I said this "Indian economy is half the size of US economy as measured by PPP ie true economic activity". Poverty and richness is not same as size of economy. I stand by that assertion.

Further I said, Indian MoD, Indian defence preparedness is totally pathetic because of ages of neglect and rot in South Bloc + senior leadership of Indian military. We need to have more wars to keep our military preparedness in shape and keep on reminding our leadership that competence is also equally important if not more important than licking the balls of bosses.

The lack of will to fight means we don't have competent leaders in military because competence is simply not needed for career growth. We need a repeat of 62 or 65 for incompetent to fall down and competents to get a chance. Smaller losses ferquently is better than massive one time loss that destroys you. It weeds out incompetents.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Killbot

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
I don't think world is going multipolar. It's at best going bi-polar. Multipolar is the new Non-alignment our amazing JNU diplomats are now peddling after failure of every nehruvian policy since forever. There will be Two major poles of U.S and China and then sub-poles like which already exist like Turkey,Iran and Russia we are also a sub-pole. These sub-poles will have allegiances/partnership to the bigger poles. In that sense even Pakistan is also a sub-pole...
Its cold war all over again. Russia + China vs USA and few allies. Our last experience with sitting out left us powerless. Unfortunately, we cann't sit out this cold war, for we will be dragged into it by China. You don't fight when you are ready. You prepare to fight whenever there is a need.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
10,007
7,643
India
I don't think world is going multipolar. It's at best going bi-polar. Multipolar is the new Non-alignment our amazing JNU diplomats are now peddling after failure of every nehruvian policy since forever. There will be Two major poles of U.S and China and then sub-poles like which already exist like Turkey,Iran and Russia we are also a sub-pole. These sub-poles will have allegiances/partnership to the bigger poles. In that sense even Pakistan is also a sub-pole...

I can think of five right off the bat.

The US and Russia as it always has been. Russia still is a major pole, merely not a superpower.
China's coming up. Post 2020.
In the near future there's EU under the leadership of France and Germany. Post 2025. The removal of UK has done wonders towards this, especially towards a common defence policy.
And the fifth one, a few years after the France and Germany combine, would be India. Post 2030.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chain Smoker

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
10,007
7,643
India
No, I said this "Indian economy is half the size of US economy as measured by PPP ie true economic activity". Poverty and richness is not same as size of economy. I stand by that assertion.

Further I said, Indian MoD, Indian defence preparedness is totally pathetic because of ages of neglect and rot in South Bloc + senior leadership of Indian military. We need to have more wars to keep our military preparedness in shape and keep on reminding our leadership that competence is also equally important if not more important than licking the balls of bosses.

The lack of will to fight means we don't have competent leaders in military because competence is simply not needed for career growth. We need a repeat of 62 or 65 for incompetent to fall down and competents to get a chance. Smaller losses ferquently is better than massive one time loss that destroys you. It weeds out incompetents.

Okay, so we are still a poor and weak country, then? So we are still 10 years or more away from becoming the moderately rich country that I had initially claimed then?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chain Smoker

Lolwa

Well-Known member
Feb 6, 2020
875
663
Delhi
I can think of five right off the bat.

The US and Russia as it always has been. Russia still is a major pole, merely not a superpower.
China's coming up. Post 2020.
In the near future there's EU under the leadership of France and Germany. Post 2025. The removal of UK has done wonders towards this, especially towards a common defence policy.
And the fifth one, a few years after the France and Germany combine, would be India. Post 2030.
I don't think EU will become its own pole. They at best will be a tier 2 power like Russia. They will play in the middle East but along with the U.S. Russia will become a junior partner in the future relationship if they continue with the Chinese. India will at best become a tier 2 power power along with EU and Russia by 2030
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chain Smoker

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
Okay, so we are still a poor and weak country, then? So we are still 10 years or more away from becoming the moderately rich country that I had initially claimed then?
We are a country of large number of poor people ruled by a rich government first and foremost. 20 years back we were dirt poor, now we are poor and 10 year from now we will be poor with few rich people. Our military capabilities were pathetic 20 years back, they are worse (relative to our foes) now and will deteriorate in future with respect to our enemies. Why? Because we (our ledaership, military and civilian & our executive) are incompetents. Plain and Simple.

Our government finances cann't and will not translate into military might. We do not take military and defence seriously at all. We prefer statues over guns. Needless to say, soon those statues will face guns only they will not be our guns. We prefer dogma over pragmatism. Soon our dogma will go down in dirt basket of history, where it belongs.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Hydra

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
10,007
7,643
India
I don't think EU will become its own pole. They at best will be a tier 2 power like Russia. They will play in the middle East but along with the U.S. Russia will become a junior partner in the future relationship if they continue with the Chinese. India will at best become a tier 2 power power along with EU and Russia by 2030

You don't have to be a superpower to be a pole. It's unlikely for any of the poles to fight each other directly after all. So even military parity is not necessary. The idea is to have your own foreign policy that's completely independent from others and not susceptible to coercion or extortion, like the Russians do even though their economy is so small (although that has a lot to do with their lopsided military power compared to their economy).

EU is headed there because of their new focus on common defence. France is focusing on getting the EU out of the alliance with the US and developing an independent foreign policy for the EU, including common defence.

Russia is not going to continue with China because the Chinese have territorial ambitions in Siberia. In fact, they are very likely to fight a war in the future, much more so than between India and China or US and China. It's because their borders are the softest. China would have attacked Russia long ago had the Russians not been militarily stronger, even without considering the massive nuke stockpile. There are only two navies in the world today that can sink the PLAN without them being able to put up much of a fight, US and Russia. It's primarily because of the vast quantities of SSNs both operate. India inviting Russia to the QUAD isn't for half-as*ed reasons.

As for India, we are practically guaranteed to step on every toe we find once we become big enough. And we are guaranteed to see a negative reaction to that. Even countries we consider as allies today may very well see us as a threat in the future. This includes France and Russia, not just the US or UK, let alone China. Our main objective will be to get closer to a set of countries where we are more in common with than other major powers. For example, there's Vietnam and Indonesia in the Southeast or a couple of African countries that will get richer in the future with shared security interests, along with the rest of South Asia. The armed forces have identified all major powers today as a threat to India in the future, which is why the focus on cutting imports has become so much more important now, to the point where the IAF Chief has even claimed MRFA will be our last import (and definitely no American fighter jets for MRFA). Even in 2011, the IAF Chief wanted the govt to pursue ICBMs as a direct military challenge to the West. Or when India claims the IN will be the net security provider in the IOR, which basically is signalling to the world that the Indian Ocean is going to be India's Ocean, which is a significant challenge to the rest of the world (the very definition of stepping on the toes of others).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chain Smoker

Lolwa

Well-Known member
Feb 6, 2020
875
663
Delhi
You don't have to be a superpower to be a pole. It's unlikely for any of the poles to fight each other directly after all. So even military parity is not necessary. The idea is to have your own foreign policy that's completely independent from others and not susceptible to coercion or extortion, like the Russians do even though their economy is so small (although that has a lot to do with their lopsided military power compared to their economy).

EU is headed there because of their new focus on common defence. France is focusing on getting the EU out of the alliance with the US and developing an independent foreign policy for the EU, including common defence.

Russia is not going to continue with China because the Chinese have territorial ambitions in Siberia. In fact, they are very likely to fight a war in the future, much more so than between India and China or US and China. It's because their borders are the softest. China would have attacked Russia long ago had the Russians not been militarily stronger, even without considering the massive nuke stockpile. There are only two navies in the world today that can sink the PLAN without them being able to put up much of a fight, US and Russia. It's primarily because of the vast quantities of SSNs both operate. India inviting Russia to the QUAD isn't for half-as*ed reasons.

As for India, we are practically guaranteed to step on every toe we find once we become big enough. And we are guaranteed to see a negative reaction to that. Even countries we consider as allies today may very well see us as a threat in the future. This includes France and Russia, not just the US or UK, let alone China. Our main objective will be to get closer to a set of countries where we are more in common with than other major powers. For example, there's Vietnam and Indonesia in the Southeast or a couple of African countries that will get richer in the future with shared security interests, along with the rest of South Asia. The armed forces have identified all major powers today as a threat to India in the future, which is why the focus on cutting imports has become so much more important now, to the point where the IAF Chief has even claimed MRFA will be our last import (and definitely no American fighter jets for MRFA). Even in 2011, the IAF Chief wanted the govt to pursue ICBMs as a direct military challenge to the West. Or when India claims the IN will be the net security provider in the IOR, which basically is signalling to the world that the Indian Ocean is going to be India's Ocean, which is a significant challenge to the rest of the world (the very definition of stepping on the toes of others).
The Indonesia and Vietnam angle is interesting. The thing is I don't think we will be able to dominate SEA like the Chinese could and we would very well see Indonesia and Malaysia becoming future adversaries similar to Iran. The U.K has most probably realised it's position post brexit and wooing India now. I don't think the E.U could do anything realistically it's far too divided and the East European members are too rebellious to follow France that easily. The Germans will themselves start having disagreements and since its the economic engine behind the E.U we are more likely to face more infighting between the French and the Germans rather than more co-operation. Even turkey starting its own game will result in a dismemberment of E.U. The European population is too war fatigued unlike the Russians. The French cannot single handedly lead the E.U with a economically strong Germany being their too.

But the future prospect of us being adversaries to the west is enticing but I don't think how this comes about when we have China being the scariest guy in the room..
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
10,007
7,643
India
The Indonesia and Vietnam angle is interesting. The thing is I don't think we will be able to dominate SEA like the Chinese could and we would very well see Indonesia and Malaysia becoming future adversaries similar to Iran. The U.K has most probably realised it's position post brexit and wooing India now. I don't think the E.U could do anything realistically it's far too divided and the East European members are too rebellious to follow France that easily. The Germans will themselves start having disagreements and since its the economic engine behind the E.U we are more likely to face more infighting between the French and the Germans rather than more co-operation. Even turkey starting its own game will result in a dismemberment of E.U. The European population is too war fatigued unlike the Russians. The French cannot single handedly lead the E.U with a economically strong Germany being their too.

Even the East Europeans would prefer a combined EU defence plan as a more effective counter to simply allying with the US as they are now. It's not just France, France and Germany are spearheading the campaign, but requires the support of all EU countries, primarily Italy and Spain.

But the future prospect of us being adversaries to the west is enticing but I don't think how this comes about when we have China being the scariest guy in the room..

India is also going to be equally scary, especially if we go around saying the IOR belongs to us. Any big country that becomes assertive is going to be scary.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chain Smoker

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
You don't have to be a superpower to be a pole. It's unlikely for any of the poles to fight each other directly after all. So even military parity is not necessary. The idea is to have your own foreign policy that's completely independent from others and not susceptible to coercion or extortion, like the Russians do even though their economy is so small (although that has a lot to do with their lopsided military power compared to their economy).
As much as I have seen, country go towards a pole because pole is strong enough the by merely aligning themselves to the pole countries gain an advantage, often military or economic advantage. If the "pole" is not strong enough, it will loose the "satellites". You can have a regional strength but being strong is necessary. Super-powers tend to be global poles as they can project their power (military and economic) well globally.

Now coming to unlikely fight each other part, well, so called "fighting" may or may not be overt. Cold war showed us that while there was no specific major confrontation like ww2, there were many many many confrontations. Cuban missile crisis, 1971 confrontation in bay of bengal, U-2 incidence come to mind. A number of them were actually near misses. Also, noteworthy, poles in Cold war were separated by geography. What will happen if so called poles share a border? I don't know and I doubt anyone else know either.

I doubt the idea is to "Have your own foreign policy completely independent from others". Its quite juvenile idea actually. Your foreign policy is ALWAYS dependent upon others, namely your allies and your enemies. Its never independent from others. Alliances are always shaped by choices and counter choices. India for all its foreign policy of non-alignment, finally signed a treaty with USSR in 1971. Why? Because it was the only counter to US support to Pakistan! Similarly, why the hell did Russia support India? After all, India was very anti-thesis of Russia, being democratic and all? Because it needed to oppose growing US influence in south Asia and India was perfect vehicle to that! Later, Why the hell did India have to support Russian capturing of Crimea? Because it was aligned with USSR and now Russia! Even though India will like to harp about freedom etc. So you see, there is never a completely independent foreign policy. Even for superpowers. You have your interests and you maximize them by your foreign policies. If you are competent, it will work right. If not, you will fail.

Take Israel for example, they are competent and they maximize their interests WHILE remaining firmly in US camp. On the other hand, we have India. India is so incompetent that by having a non aligned foreign policy, it cann't get enough support to push Pakistan in blacklist in FATF OR even prevent Nepal from claiming India's land.
 

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
Bhai, aap bahut Ganja peetay ho!
Bhai, cycle chalne ke liye cycle par savaar hona padata hei. Research paper likh kar cycle chalana naheen seekh sakte.

See who is the proven strongest in military terms : USA and Russia.
How it got strong? They fought enough and they still fight (though not in their own backyards) to keep their forces fighting fit.

Then we have China, a typical paper strong country.

Last we have India. Need I say more?
 
Last edited:

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
I don't think world is going multipolar. It's at best going bi-polar. Multipolar is the new Non-alignment our amazing JNU diplomats are now peddling after failure of every nehruvian policy since forever. There will be Two major poles of U.S and China and then sub-poles like which already exist like Turkey,Iran and Russia we are also a sub-pole. These sub-poles will have allegiances/partnership to the bigger poles. In that sense even Pakistan is also a sub-pole...
Well, indeed! It is the new bottle for old sour milk.

I mean I can claim Cold war had more than two poles too! There was USA, There was USSR and there was Switzerland. Sounds absurd, right? Because multipolar idea is absurd! These multi-poles will degenerate into two poles, when push comes to shove. World war 2 had many independent interests : Nazi + Fascists on one side, UK with appeasement on another, USSR another, USA with no interest another. When push came to shove, the aligned into two camps.

After crushing defeat of 62 and a bloody nose of 65, India immediately came into its senses and aligned with USSR in 71.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Lolwa

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
I don't think EU will become its own pole. They at best will be a tier 2 power like Russia. They will play in the middle East but along with the U.S. Russia will become a junior partner in the future relationship if they continue with the Chinese. India will at best become a tier 2 power power along with EU and Russia by 2030
Folks forget EU is not a country. EU is a bureaucracy without military or diplomacy. It can only pass some cryptic standards and some human rights resolution. Beyond that, it can do nothing. There is no coherent diplomatic arm of EU : Individual countries follow their own diplomatic interest. There is no Army of EU per-say. Individual countries have their own military and they pursue their own military interests.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Lolwa

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
India is also going to be equally scary, especially if we go around saying the IOR belongs to us. Any big country that becomes assertive is going to be scary.
Assertive is the keyword. India will never be assertive because of धोती शिवरिंग, incompetence and corruption. To be assertive in the real sense you need to prepare to back your assertion with power. India is too incompetent and corrupt to assert herself or prepare a real power -- militarily or diplomatically. It can only do half arsed "re-adjustments" or throw some bombs and miss targets by 300 meters and call it a day.

At best, with a lot of huffing and puffing, India will be a decent sized economy with economic activity similar to Indonesia or AT BEST Malaysia but at a larger scale, may be in 100 years or so. This will make government much richer, people almost middle class but it won't weed out the inherent incompetence, corruption and धोती शिवरिंग of south block and military leadership.

Meanwhile, even likes of Nepal will claim its territory and Bangladesh will deny it a path around its geographic vulnerability and Pakistan will keep on sending more and more terrorists.
 
Last edited:

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
As for India, we are practically guaranteed to step on every toe we find once we become big enough.
This is an ivory tower. Becoming "big enough". Let see. We became bigger than France in nominal GDP, defence expenditure. Its not that as if France suddenly started to oppose India in most of diplomatic forum or started to highlight India's "human rights" record everywhere.

UK always liked to diss us. When we were tiny and now we are not so tiny.

Relationship with US was always transactional, it is still transactional.

Russia is interesting. Russia started to become cold to us diplomatically once it aligned with China more. Right now, it uses India as an ATM and as a stick to whack USA. Like after our last ASAT test.

And we are guaranteed to see a negative reaction to that.
No. There are never any guarantees of anything positive or negative. India can become economically "big enough" (aspirationally). It will never be a military or diplomatic power. Why? Because for India to be big enough economically, government has to get out of the way. That is hard but can be done.

For India to be a military or diplomatic power and to be assertive (as a consequnce), Indian government need to

1. Get competent
2. Limit corruption
3. Stop धोती शिवरिंग

None of it can happen ever. Government has no impetus or motivation to make it happen. So India is possibly never going to be "big enough" in a military or diplomatic sense. Which means, no assertiveness beyond some stupid election speeches and hence no stepping on anyone's toe. India will become a fat turkey prime to be shot in future... ie if we survive till then and actually thrive.

(*sarcasm*) May be if we can outsource our military (at least leadership) and diplomatic functions of our government, we can finally see some assertion.
 

Saaho

Senior member
Dec 27, 2019
1,618
1,217
Earth
For example, there's Vietnam and Indonesia in the Southeast or a couple of African countries that will get richer in the future with shared security interests, along with the rest of South Asia.
Tell me, I am a politician in Vietnam or Indonesia or in some Jhinga La La African country. India is offering me to build a port or a bridge. Also, it will sell me some rifles or helicopter. I might want their cruise missile but it will need a sign off from Russia. Last I saw, their own projects to build bridge got delayed by 10 years and the port they were building in Iran is still dragging its feet. Their rifle sprays oil from behind and their helicopters have a record to crash.

On the other hand, I have China... Hmm... We have some issues with them in past. But their projects almost get done on time. They are offering us soft loans but I doubt their intentions. Oh, and they are offering me a bribe of 100 million dollars! By the time anyone will find out, I will be out of this damn country anyways. All China wants me to do is to keep India out of my country, stay neutral in diplomatic fronts. Besides, I have so much ammunition to deride India.... Poverty, human rights etc etc etc.

What should I do now?