How do you differ ? With out a direct Indian intervention Bangladesh wouldn't happen either. What I meant by "Bangladesh" is the massive upheaval that preceded 1971 war caused by killing of the political/intellectual elite. Attack on PTM might lead to a similar situation. There is a uncanny similarity here. There is also one major difference though, geography. Geography helped us in 71, but plays against us today.
Well, you nailed it. For a Bangladesh to be created, Indian involvement is necessary. Otherwise it's another Balochistan. Perenially in turmoil and no independence .No subjugation either.Just a see saw of area dominance between the antagonists. The establishment sees the PTM as a front for the TTP. What's preventing them from acting is the fact that the entire movement is peaceful.
Assuming for a moment that the PTM is a front for the TTP, what triggered the incident seems to suggest that the mask is off. A massive crackdown will follow. If the TTP did resort to such a ruse then it's likely that Radd ul Fasaad hss left them severely depleted of men & resources.
OTOH, if the connection to the TTP is tenuous and this is genuinely a movement of FATA & KPK Pashtuns with marginal participation of the TTP as it seems likely ( which is why the PA is treating this entire incident with kid gloves) then it all depends on how PA handles this incident and the extent to which the PTM can further mobilise and pressurize the administration. Please note that the PTM as of now is a peaceful movement with no demands for sovereignty. Their only demand is the PA cease operations and the IDP re settle in their homes. It's our assumption that PA would over react or that PA would react the way they're known to react and precipitate a crisis. Right now the situation is fluid.
I am against any direct operation as of now and I agree Sindh flare up would be very beneficial as well. Add this to the IMF conditions to be imposed, internal fighting will skyrocket. If we play our cards right and increase pressure on the border, Baluchis will step up their ops. PA will be stretched thin.
We aren't going to act now or in the future. We'd only react. Please note that in his speech to the BJP MP's recently in the Central Hall of Parliament, not once was Pakistan mentioned. Of course, it goes without saying that in case massive operations are planned, Modi or anyone in his position wouldn't be announcing it from treetops. As of now, our plans of modernization and Reformation of the armed forces is our priority.
As far as talks with Pakistan go, it'd follow the same old meandering path of diminishing returns that they have over the past decade ever since 26/11. Two things are of importance - Pakistan, whatever it's status - financial, political etc , can't help but respond to the itch called Kashmir. Assuming Modi does away with Article 35A & Article 370, Kashmir will be up in arms. Pakistan, in spite of not being in any position financially to support an aggression will play true to type and try an intervention - in whatever form. What follows then is anyone's guess. Suffice to say that if Modi embarks on such a path, it's a hint that CS, re capture of PoK etc are all on the table.
Finally, the survival of all these separatist movements in Pakistan is linked to India. I'm not just referring to material support. Even with us pressurising the PA like we did post Balakote, these groups can give hell for leather to the PA. If the pressure drops on the LoC, the boot is on the other foot for these separatist movements.