PAK-FA / Sukhoi Su-57 - Updates and Discussions

Pretty much the only 5G option we have left now. Imo, the IAF would ideally have liked to cap the heavy fighter segment and focus on growing the light and medium end. Su-57 is a good bet as a long-range interceptor and radar picket ac for the rest of the fleet but I doubt Kinzhal would be available for export though. It is reported to be nuke capable.

Does Russia have another LRSOW in the same class as JASSM/Taurus/Storm Shadow that might be of interest to the IAF?
 

Russia has begun serial production of the Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter, underscoring the nation’s determination to close the generational gap with Western air powers and strengthen its dominance in future multi-domain conflicts.

This development marks a decisive leap for the Russian Aerospace Forces in pursuing air superiority through advanced low-observable technologies, multi-role lethality, and high-survivability combat performance against peer threats.
The announcement in late October 2025 signals Russia’s formal entry into sustainable fifth-generation fighter manufacturing after years of constrained procurement and limited early-batch output.

This milestone aligns with Moscow’s broader modernization campaign aimed at ensuring the Russian military remains equipped to counter NATO’s expanding aerial capabilities during an era of heightened geopolitical confrontation, exacerbated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating East-West tensions.
 

Russia has begun serial production of the Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter, underscoring the nation’s determination to close the generational gap with Western air powers and strengthen its dominance in future multi-domain conflicts.

This development marks a decisive leap for the Russian Aerospace Forces in pursuing air superiority through advanced low-observable technologies, multi-role lethality, and high-survivability combat performance against peer threats.
The announcement in late October 2025 signals Russia’s formal entry into sustainable fifth-generation fighter manufacturing after years of constrained procurement and limited early-batch output.

This milestone aligns with Moscow’s broader modernization campaign aimed at ensuring the Russian military remains equipped to counter NATO’s expanding aerial capabilities during an era of heightened geopolitical confrontation, exacerbated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating East-West tensions.
Means Al51 is ready .
 
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Based on the Russian report, HAL is now putting together its own assessment outlining the investment required in infrastructure, advanced technologies, R&D, human resources, and supply chain development to enable full-scale production of the Su-57E if India accepts the Russian offer. The company is expected to submit its report to the Ministry of Defence before the end of this month, sources said.

The timing is significant, as President Putin is scheduled to arrive in India on December 5–6 for the 23rd annual India–Russia summit and bilateral talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
 

Based on the Russian report, HAL is now putting together its own assessment outlining the investment required in infrastructure, advanced technologies, R&D, human resources, and supply chain development to enable full-scale production of the Su-57E if India accepts the Russian offer. The company is expected to submit its report to the Ministry of Defence before the end of this month, sources said.

The timing is significant, as President Putin is scheduled to arrive in India on December 5–6 for the 23rd annual India–Russia summit and bilateral talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
50%, why do i feel like we might get scammed like we did with the vikramaditya?
 
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50%, why do i feel like we might get scammed like we did with the vikramaditya?
Marketing yarn. They are quoting $120m for MII Su-57. Iirc, same as the flyaway cost of Rafale. No way a license built 5G would cost the same as an off the shelf 4.5G jet.

They are trying to position the Felon as an alternative option.
 
50%, why do i feel like we might get scammed like we did with the vikramaditya?
50% is current the production capacity without additional infrastructure being added. Tech transfer offered is 70%.
 
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I would prefer a Irkut built Su57 re-fitted with Indian mission computers, AESA, etc at BRD of IAF than a HAL assemble Su57 with 70% localisation.

Same goes for Rafale.
Unlikely to happen. The Su-57 (nose) radar in particular is tied to radiating elements in the levcons and wing leading edges + the EW suite. Changing one could mean changing/modifying all the others.

We'll likely end up buying 2-3 squadrons off the shelf and then license produce an MKI version in India.
 
Unlikely to happen. The Su-57 (nose) radar in particular is tied to radiating elements in the levcons and wing leading edges + the EW suite. Changing one could mean changing/modifying all the others.

We'll likely end up buying 2-3 squadrons off the shelf and then license produce an MKI version in India.
So let's get this right. Apart from the Mk-2 which as of now is awaiting flight tests almost on the verge of completion of its development cycle , we'd be developing the AMCA Mk-1 & Mk-2 , the TEDBF (?) & in all probability the MKI zation of the Su-57 as well as the Rafale.

Then there's the Ghatak , FUFA , Tayaji , Mamaji & other such unmanned / CCA projects planned / under various stages of implementation . This would be in addition to the indigenous MALE / HALE drone programs also under consideration. Then there's the proposed AHCA & possibly the IN 5th Gen FA program.

Another piece of good news for the reader being , next to China & the US we'd probably be having the largest number of military aeronautical projects under development. When it rains , it truly pours.

And the best part is all these will be inducted in full strength from the mid 30s onwards long after our proposed encounter with China.

Real Alhamdulillah moment !
 
I dont know if going to the sukhoi 57 is a good idea? i mean not even looking at performance the sheer amount of sanctions threat we would face would be insane.
Our FTA with the EU would be in massive jeopardy, US relations would go down to cataclysmic lows(we can kiss goodbye to the GE414 and the GE404s might get limited as well), Our french engine collab would also be in jeopardy and all sorts of stuff would go haywire?

Maybe post ukraine but that war is not gonna end until at least 2027(2026 will be the turning point year). Its not worth it in any sense of the word. We would satisfy our immediate needs while jeopardizing our future.

Might be better to simply improve our radar tech to the absolute limit and hope that helps vs chinese 5th gens(5th gen to 6th gen gap is not as big as 4th to 5th). Maybe invest more in the photonics(i dont know if investing more would even make a difference when dealing with frontier tech like this), or at least try to get it operational as fast as possible.
 
So let's get this right. Apart from the Mk-2 which as of now is awaiting flight tests almost on the verge of completion of its development cycle , we'd be developing the AMCA Mk-1 & Mk-2 , the TEDBF (?) & in all probability the MKI zation of the Su-57 as well as the Rafale.

Then there's the Ghatak , FUFA , Tayaji , Mamaji & other such unmanned / CCA projects planned / under various stages of implementation . This would be in addition to the indigenous MALE / HALE drone programs also under consideration. Then there's the proposed AHCA & possibly the IN 5th Gen FA program.

Another piece of good news for the reader being , next to China & the US we'd probably be having the largest number of military aeronautical projects under development. When it rains , it truly pours.

And the best part is all these will be inducted in full strength from the mid 30s onwards long after our proposed encounter with China.

Real Alhamdulillah moment !
We're in an arms race with another Superpower(China), thus all these military programmes are to be expected.

Next goal, the 4th domain;) Weaponize the space;)
 
So let's get this right. Apart from the Mk-2 which as of now is awaiting flight tests almost on the verge of completion of its development cycle , we'd be developing the AMCA Mk-1 & Mk-2 , the TEDBF (?) & in all probability the MKI zation of the Su-57 as well as the Rafale.

Then there's the Ghatak , FUFA , Tayaji , Mamaji & other such unmanned / CCA projects planned / under various stages of implementation . This would be in addition to the indigenous MALE / HALE drone programs also under consideration. Then there's the proposed AHCA & possibly the IN 5th Gen FA program.

Another piece of good news for the reader being , next to China & the US we'd probably be having the largest number of military aeronautical projects under development. When it rains , it truly pours.

And the best part is all these will be inducted in full strength from the mid 30s onwards long after our proposed encounter with China.

Real Alhamdulillah moment !
The IAF now wants 57 fighter squadrons up from 42 according to some reports. Currently, the only fighters in the pipeline are 180 Mk1A and 26 Rafale-M for the IN. AMCA will only begin deliveries in 2035 and Mk2 in 2032. Both are yet to fly (athough industry consortia to produce them are forming up - a good sign)

Despite pleas from the IAF, the MoD is still pushing for a higher percentage of localization (over faster deliveries) for Rafale, while negotiations for Su-57 are just starting.

Imo, Sukhoi is trying to fill this void, pitting Su-57 vs Rafale. They are offering 70% IC right off the bat as someone pointed out at an incredible $120m. But MoD will likely not take these claims at face value. Expect long negotiations here too.

In the meantime, if the CCA/UCAV progs come through, that will immediately ease the pressure on the IAF. Perhaps Mk2 will be made MUM-T capable like MKI in due course. Problem is none of the drone programs are funded atm.
 
50%, why do i feel like we might get scammed like we did with the vikramaditya?
50.5% is the capability of HAL to produce the Su-57 in their facilities right now. With more upgrades they can easily produce Su-57E airframes here. As far as being scammed goes, we bought 36 Rafales and paid for a tonne of weaponry including Meteor, India-specific enhancements and offset clauses. As of now there's no credible info on Meteors here, our Rafales still can't carry our existing weapons for which we paid, and Dassault still hasn't fulfilled it's offset clauses including FAL for Dassault business jets etc.

IAF is drooling over 114 more of them plus $8 bn for joing engine development deal which even if approved would end up with an egg on our face. AMCA isn't getting inducted before 2040, and this is being optimistic. It is not even under prototyping stage, heck they're yet to announce the consortium that'll be awarded the contract for prototype development. Latest inputs suggest first flight in 2029-30, which obviously will be delayed, meaning that this project is going exactly the way Tejas went i.e. 30+ years for induction from start of project and this is when they want us to believe they learnt their lessons from Tejas programme which they wouldn't have repeated.

Su-57MKI becomes the natural replacement for Su-30 MKIs which will beging retiring from 2040s onwards, as both are heavy weight fighters and we have no domestic equivalent for it. If Russia allows Al-51 being license built here even if with low localisation levels, it'll be the best thing we could acquire. PLAAF already has hundreds of 5th gens in service and under production with 6th gen prototypes flying, IAF/MoD have no choice but to "import one last time for the n'th time" due to their own incompetency.
 
The IAF now wants 57 fighter squadrons up from 42 according to some reports. Currently, the only fighters in the pipeline are 180 Mk1A and 26 Rafale-M for the IN. AMCA will only begin deliveries in 2035 and Mk2 in 2032. Both are yet to fly (athough industry consortia to produce them are forming up - a good sign)
I wouldn't be very confident of a consortium assembling a 5th Gen FA minus HAL . And if HAL is a part of this consortium what would the role of the other partners in it ?

I'd rather all these players be qualified as Tier 1 suppliers of sub assemblies with a view to developing them for future projects.

If MoD / GoI feel there's such a pressing need to develop the pvt sector in competition to HAL they can start out with the aforementioned formula in the LCA Mk-2 program.

Besides as I've mentioned before HAL needs to be privatized in the truest sense not the kind of arrangement we have now besides being broken up into 4 entities to unlock value.

Anyway I digress ...
Despite pleas from the IAF, the MoD is still pushing for a higher percentage of localization (over faster deliveries) for Rafale, while negotiations for Su-57 are just starting.
Didn't read anywhere the IAF is prioritising deliveries over more IC , TBH. In any case Dassault order book is full up until 2030 if not a couple of years beyond the said date.

Even if things are expedited without emphasizing IC , doubt if we're getting anything before 2030. IIRC DA managed to squeeze in deliveries of the Rafale M with some difficulty.

Moreover the recent skirmish with Paxtan has validated ACM Singh's contention that DA has to share their source codes to integrate our systems in it . That'd only prolong negotiations for DA will not be amenable . Hence a via media would have to be worked out. Then comes the price negotiations.

Both negotiations for Su-57 & Rafales will take a lot of time. I'd venture somewhere close to the 2029 general elections to sign agreements if both parties are keen to close the deal . Otherwise we're past masters at stretching timelines.

Then comes the validation of these integration . SPECTRA would have to be recalibrated to these integrated products . That's additional time.
Imo, Sukhoi is trying to fill this void, pitting Su-57 vs Rafale. They are offering 70% IC right off the bat as someone pointed out at an incredible $120m. But MoD will likely not take these claims at face value. Expect long negotiations here too.

Russians like our other partners are known to backtrack after committing. However we're also known to take liberties with them as far as their products go .

The Su-30 MKI is a good example of the number of times we've bypassed them to integrate our systems aboard.

There's a certain comfort level with them for we both know the extents to which each other can go to in such cases which we haven't been able to build with other suppliers.

In any case the MKI zation will be a long drawn out affair . Both these acquisition militate against quick induction. We're basically preparing to fight in the the late 2030s . That's the sum total of my assumption of our approach.
In the meantime, if the CCA/UCAV progs come through, that will immediately ease the pressure on the IAF.

The Ghatak is expected to come only in the mid 30s. Don't think that can be rushed. As regards the CATS Warrior , IAF isn't involved in the development. It's purely HAL's baby much like the HTSE & HTFE projects .

In fact the IN has been more proactive in this regard by tying up with New Space for the Abhimanyu CCA .

Tell you just how serious the IAF is & their foresight in what they consider to be their domain reflected very well in their staunch opposition to theaterisation & jointness where a more capable Raksha Mantri would've taken off their pants for their attitude.

FUFA is still a paper plane. Beyond that the cabinet is empty. No news on the replacement program of the MKI as well or what comes after AMCA for studies for that program must begin today .

The Chinese have already flown their 6th Gen FAs , that too 2 of them . It'd be exactly a year next month yet what are you hearing from the IAF w.r.t the counter to it.

Perhaps Mk2 will be made MUM-T capable like MKI in due course. Problem is none of the drone programs are funded atm.