The IAF now wants 57 fighter squadrons up from 42 according to some reports. Currently, the only fighters in the pipeline are 180 Mk1A and 26 Rafale-M for the IN. AMCA will only begin deliveries in 2035 and Mk2 in 2032. Both are yet to fly (athough industry consortia to produce them are forming up - a good sign)
I wouldn't be very confident of a consortium assembling a 5th Gen FA minus HAL . And if HAL is a part of this consortium what would the role of the other partners in it ?
I'd rather all these players be qualified as Tier 1 suppliers of sub assemblies with a view to developing them for future projects.
If MoD / GoI feel there's such a pressing need to develop the pvt sector in competition to HAL they can start out with the aforementioned formula in the LCA Mk-2 program.
Besides as I've mentioned before HAL needs to be privatized in the truest sense not the kind of arrangement we have now besides being broken up into 4 entities to unlock value.
Anyway I digress ...
Despite pleas from the IAF, the MoD is still pushing for a higher percentage of localization (over faster deliveries) for Rafale, while negotiations for Su-57 are just starting.
Didn't read anywhere the IAF is prioritising deliveries over more IC , TBH. In any case Dassault order book is full up until 2030 if not a couple of years beyond the said date.
Even if things are expedited without emphasizing IC , doubt if we're getting anything before 2030. IIRC DA managed to squeeze in deliveries of the Rafale M with some difficulty.
Moreover the recent skirmish with Paxtan has validated ACM Singh's contention that DA has to share their source codes to integrate our systems in it . That'd only prolong negotiations for DA will not be amenable . Hence a via media would have to be worked out. Then comes the price negotiations.
Both negotiations for Su-57 & Rafales will take a lot of time. I'd venture somewhere close to the 2029 general elections to sign agreements if both parties are keen to close the deal . Otherwise we're past masters at stretching timelines.
Then comes the validation of these integration . SPECTRA would have to be recalibrated to these integrated products . That's additional time.
Imo, Sukhoi is trying to fill this void, pitting Su-57 vs Rafale. They are offering 70% IC right off the bat as someone pointed out at an incredible $120m. But MoD will likely not take these claims at face value. Expect long negotiations here too.
Russians like our other partners are known to backtrack after committing. However we're also known to take liberties with them as far as their products go .
The Su-30 MKI is a good example of the number of times we've bypassed them to integrate our systems aboard.
There's a certain comfort level with them for we both know the extents to which each other can go to in such cases which we haven't been able to build with other suppliers.
In any case the MKI zation will be a long drawn out affair . Both these acquisition militate against quick induction. We're basically preparing to fight in the the late 2030s . That's the sum total of my assumption of our approach.
In the meantime, if the CCA/UCAV progs come through, that will immediately ease the pressure on the IAF.
The Ghatak is expected to come only in the mid 30s. Don't think that can be rushed. As regards the CATS Warrior , IAF isn't involved in the development. It's purely HAL's baby much like the HTSE & HTFE projects .
In fact the IN has been more proactive in this regard by tying up with New Space for the Abhimanyu CCA .
Tell you just how serious the IAF is & their foresight in what they consider to be their domain reflected very well in their staunch opposition to theaterisation & jointness where a more capable Raksha Mantri would've taken off their pants for their attitude.
FUFA is still a paper plane. Beyond that the cabinet is empty. No news on the replacement program of the MKI as well or what comes after AMCA for studies for that program must begin today .
The Chinese have already flown their 6th Gen FAs , that too 2 of them . It'd be exactly a year next month yet what are you hearing from the IAF w.r.t the counter to it.
Perhaps Mk2 will be made MUM-T capable like MKI in due course. Problem is none of the drone programs are funded atm.