PAK-FA / Sukhoi Su-57 - Updates and Discussions

[Rune]

From Fighterbomber's telegram channel :
"These are the first line pilots and the first Su-57s to enter service with a line fighter regiment"

 

[Rajput Lion]

won't AMCA Mk1 be in service 5 years before then? Do we really need Su57s just for the intervening 9 years? Won't Mk1A and Mk2 meet the requirement along with anti stealth targeting systems? I mean why add a new platform- especially as a stealth aircraft is not the counter for another (enemy) stealth - looking at J35 coming into PAF & J20s in PLAAF.

Su-57 is specifically designed to kill other stealth fighters. Its design doctrine is different from other "hunter-killer" stealth fighters. AMCA MK1 would just be a stepping stone towards the real deal that is MK2. AMCA MK2 is only going to be operationally ready around 2040. So between 2025 and 2040, we need around 200 Su-57MKIs with AL-51F1 engines and full TOT along with Joint Manufacturing rights.

Everything is being discussed as I am writing this and the world will know all details very soon

 

[Subgradewalker]

Su-57 is specifically designed to kill other stealth fighters. Its design doctrine is different from other "hunter-killer" stealth fighters. AMCA MK1 would just be a stepping stone towards the real deal that is MK2. AMCA MK2 is only going to be operationally ready around 2040. So between 2025 and 2040, we need around 200 Su-57MKIs with AL-51F1 engines and full TOT along with Joint Manufacturing rights.

Everything is being discussed as I am writing this and the world will know all details very soon

Trump has surely made things interesting for all. Atleast from a stand-byers pov.

If we really do go for su-57 ( which I believe is unlikely considering the risk of sabotage from China), it can only be if we get ToT for radars and AD system. I also heard that Russia is lacking serious manpower in labor market. So once the war stops(if), that's the potential to increase the level of trade too. Remittances or vis indian company led investment with China model where they hire Indians to work in Russia.

A standalone deal for Su-57 doesn't make sense to me so far. Not even for hedging or oil.

 

[babablacksheep]

Su-57 is specifically designed to kill other stealth fighters. Its design doctrine is different from other "hunter-killer" stealth fighters. AMCA MK1 would just be a stepping stone towards the real deal that is MK2. AMCA MK2 is only going to be operationally ready around 2040. So between 2025 and 2040, we need around 200 Su-57MKIs with AL-51F1 engines and full TOT along with Joint Manufacturing rights.

Everything is being discussed as I am writing this and the world will know all details very soon

Aren't they offering su57 "E" for local production and MKIzation with 177s engines.
Instead of su57 M with al51 for local production?

 

[marich01]

If we really do go for su-57 ( which I believe is unlikely considering the risk of sabotage from China),

Both us and china use a lot of rus stuff. How many have been sabotaged so far ? this angle is of little concern. Spares issue is where certain concern lie because in many cases only chinese alternative remain, either that or do it yourself. So many indigenisation tenders being released by the tri services, lot of those are having very little interest from local biz. Nobody wants to do that because order would be few and far between, investment do not generate return within acceptable time (for small msme co).

Actual concerning issue is the entire drone supply chain using chinese imported stuff re labeling and selling to the armed forces , which the user is finding out after those are being jammed by adversary ew. 98% of vendors in any trade fair/drone show are the same.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Both us and china use a lot of rus stuff. How many have been sabotaged so far ? this angle is of little concern. Spares issue is where certain concern lie because in many cases only chinese alternative remain, either that or do it yourself. So many indigenisation tenders being released by the tri services, lot of those are having very little interest from local biz. Nobody wants to do that because order would be few and far between, investment do not generate return within acceptable time (for small msme co).

Actual concerning issue is the entire drone supply chain using chinese imported stuff re labeling and selling to the armed forces , which the user is finding out after those are being jammed by adversary ew. 98% of vendors in any trade fair/drone show are the same.

US is not in debt to Russia as Russia is to China. I am not indicating the systems sabotage. But the deal sabotage in itself.

Unless India can be sure that the Russian side is fully committed within whatever framework they decide... it will be a potential headache or worry.
US has delayed engines and russian has delayed S-400.
Although the russian have a valid reason for delay.. that isn't all there's is to it. Not withstanding the reports that the next 2 platforms are meant for Chinese borders.. why won't China use its leverage to delay India's military buildup as much as possible.

The supply chain is whole other issue as we won't be building Su-57E in India just for one or two squads. That wouldn't make any sense whatsover. Neither will it increase the delivery timeline.

As for interest from local biz.. it's not the lack of desire but the defense procurement is a headache in itself and given the closed nature... One would need to have big pockets ( even msme needs connection to sell to tier-1, tier-2 vendors) to push the files.
Even govt cant change this system overnight. Unless AI is more efficient and adaptable for automation of many processes.. it's a tough job to bring " more governance, less govt" model to its optimum balance.

Just the certification for military grade, approved components might take what msme can't afford in short term.

Indian market is still too closed for Indian themselves. Let alone foreigners. Infact, it might be more open for imports rather than indigenous things. Startup phase is still in its childhood phase, will take continuous political stability and support to grow it to considerable extent. Even then current initiatives are targetting niche technology requiring very advanced skills.

Just the amount of signatures needed to buy land, build structure and manufacture/ sell a common product is mind boggling let alone defense.
Although govt has opened up a bit in last decade.. it's still far far from desired.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Trump has surely made things interesting for all. Atleast from a stand-byers pov.

If we really do go for su-57 ( which I believe is unlikely considering the risk of sabotage from China), it can only be if we get ToT for radars and AD system. I also heard that Russia is lacking serious manpower in labor market. So once the war stops(if), that's the potential to increase the level of trade too. Remittances or vis indian company led investment with China model where they hire Indians to work in Russia.

A standalone deal for Su-57 doesn't make sense to me so far. Not even for hedging or oil.

We will replace all Chinese stuff with our own. Rest assured that Su-57MKI won't even have a single Chinese chip in it.

Aren't they offering su57 "E" for local production and MKIzation with 177s engines.
Instead of su57 M with al51 for local production?

Su-57E with AL-41-F1 is offered with source code for local production within this decade itself. We shall procure them between 60-80.

There is a separate discussion going on to revive FGFA aka 2-seat Su-57 with India holding full IP and joint-production rights. This will fructify only by next decade as AL-51 isn't fully mature yet.

177S offer is for MKI. Su-57 has nothing to do with it as Al-51 is its definitive engine while Al-41F1 remains the interim one.

 

[babablacksheep]

There is a separate discussion going on to revive FGFA aka 2-seat Su-57 with India holding full IP and joint-production rights. This will fructify only by next decade as AL-51 isn't fully mature yet.

By that amca mk1 prototype will be in late stage of testing.
And first prototype of Next Gen 120kn being ready.

So even if this RUMINT is true I don't think we will move forward after 2030.

If deal for su57 with al51 can be signed and first delivered begin in 2028-2030 then it makes sense to buy that jet, to worth the investment.

 

[screambowl]

US is not in debt to Russia as Russia is to China

Russia has a superficial debt. In four ABC1 CAT oil shipments to China all the debt will be closed. That is why US is after Russian oil sale.

 

[marich01]

US is not in debt to Russia as Russia is to China. I am not indicating the systems sabotage. But the deal sabotage in itself.

That is a very moot point esp between two top tier countries that share a land border. By nature Rus character is not about holding debt. When a chinese missile silo come up , just like us they also feel the same heat irrespective of trade between themselves and bilateral relationship. They know how to do business and they mean business. So all the handshake etc are mainly on transactional basis. This is why even though chinese copy their stuff and later sell to other countries, they do not mind much despite losing business.

Money + suitability of the product is the deciding factor in any procurement for us anyway. Almost all Rus export systems are on offer to us, and yet we only buy that suit our forces via the user demonstration. An Official Delegation party visit Rus, they decide on what is to go thru to user demonstration trial and prospect of local mfg, what would be nature of license fee , which items must be bought from Rus source and volume, maximum localisation allowed etc things like that. Influencing that decision via other means that is same as in any other business.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Russia has a superficial debt. In four ABC1 CAT oil shipments to China all the debt will be closed. That is why US is after Russian oil sale.

It's not literal economic debt in sense of banking nomenclature.

But in debt of China. Russia can't maintain/sustain its production without Chinese hands and money keep them afloat.

It's not just about money. But if you take away Russia space for manuevor, then as a major country.. only China will be left. India is balancing them and that's the biggest reason that India will not abandon Russia so easily. Not to counter US influence. But Chinese. And Russia too recognises that & wants India with them to keep Chinese influence in check. The war had squeezed India's space but seems like it will be recovered with this tarrif move.

Ofcourse this goes against maybe some other needs of above nations. But that's all politics is about.

 

[Valhalla]

real deal that is MK2

how does Mk2 AMCA compare vs Mk1? What are the differences other than F414 vs 120kN engine?

 

[Rajput Lion]

how does Mk2 AMCA compare vs Mk1? What are the differences other than F414 vs 120kN engine?

That is by far the biggest difference between these two versions. MK2 is still WIP. A stealth jet isn't a true stealth jet without stealthy engine. MK2 shall have all-aspect stealth, higher service ceiling, 1.5 Mach+ supercruise and much better SFC to boot. We may make MK2 a size bigger in its definitive version too but that is just speculation on my behalf.

PS: DRDO plans to put our first airborne Photonics radar in both AMCA MK2 & MKI UPG. Tranche 2 or 3. So that would be a substantial upgrade(if done) over MK1.

 

[_Anonymous_]

We will replace all Chinese stuff with our own. Rest assured that Su-57MKI won't even have a single Chinese chip in it.

I hope you realise this militates against the very need of such an FA which is quick induction.

If we get into such nitty gritty , then we're talking about MKI zation which is a completely different ball game.

Su-57E with AL-41-F1 is offered with source code for local production within this decade itself. We shall procure them between 60-80.

If this is what the IAF deems as acceptable to take on PLAAF then go full steam ahead & procure 3-4 squadrons made in Russia with firm deadlines & stringent penalties for deviations though I'd have preferred the AL-51 powering the Su-57 & the same model with the same armaments & sensors the VKS is inducting rather than the export version.

There is a separate discussion going on to revive FGFA aka 2-seat Su-57 with India holding full IP and joint-production rights. This will fructify only by next decade as AL-51 isn't fully mature yet.

177S offer is for MKI. Su-57 has nothing to do with it as Al-51 is its definitive engine while Al-41F1 remains the interim one.

If we get into this , the AMCA program suffers a setback. It's not as if we lack the resources - men money or material , to run both programs simultaneously , it's just that this administration is simply too tight fisted when it comes to spending on defence .

Moreover whether we need the Su-57 next decade itself is rather moot especially given the fact that global predictions for a Chinese move on Taiwan is expected to take place by 2030 if not sooner.

Which is to say that we must ensure with all the power at our disposal , we prevent such an outcome unless we're hedging as usual expecting China to prevail & emerge in a vastly weakened state , which is a wrong move IMO & which would tally with such vital procurements being made next decade.

Retuning to the topic , if you've been observing the present administration's perspective towards defence they're going about it as BAU - business as usual .

You simply don't get the impression of any urgency whatsoever especially considering the fast deteriorating geo political scenario & the geo strategic consequences especially in our neighborhood in their policy making , budgetary provisions , mode of procurement shackled as it is with the usual bureaucratese , etc.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Moreover whether we need the Su-57 next decade itself is rather moot especially given the fact that global predictions for a Chinese move on Taiwan is expected to take place by 2030 if not sooner.

Can you refer links to some research papers that explains the rationale behind predictions of Taiwan invasion before 2030 only?

 

[_Anonymous_]

Can you refer links to some research papers that explains the rationale behind predictions of Taiwan invasion before 2030 only?

No I will not. There's a whole thread on the Indo China war gaming scenario containing a good deal of such information. Feel free to use it .

Also feel free to use ChatGPT or Grok or any of these AI tools to understand when's the west especially the US expecting the Chinese to make a move on Taiwan.

 

[YoungWolf]

DRDO plans to put our first airborne Photonics radar in both AMCA MK2 & MKI UPG. Tranche 2 or 3. So that would be a substantial upgrade(if done) over MK1.

The photonics radar is at least 10 years from maturing enough for serial production, frontline fighter usage. I'd be happier to see Uttam on Tejas and Virupaksha on Su-30. Photonics radar development is in it's early stages, and will definitely undergo major design evolutions as the involved scientists gain better understanding of the tech and the engineering involved to make it suitable for a particular application.

 

[YoungWolf]

I'd have preferred the AL-51 powering the Su-57 & the same model with the same armaments & sensors the VKS is inducting rather than the export version.

I hope you realise this militates against the very need of such an FA which is quick induction.

If we get into such nitty gritty , then we're talking about MKI zation which is a completely different ball game.

If we get into this , the AMCA program suffers a setback. It's not as if we lack the resources - men money or material , to run both programs simultaneously , it's just that this administration is simply too tight fisted when it comes to spending on defence .

Absolutely. Have tried to highlight it multiple times previously. A hypothetical MKI-zation not only takes away resources from the AMCA programme, but also beats the entire point of stop-gap induction, and comes around the same time as AMCA. To make matters worse, it's the Su-57E with AL-41F1 on offer, which Algeria has selected, and not the Su-57M. One could be more favourable of a stop-gap 5th gen fighter purchase if it were the "definitive" version on offer, but alas, it isn't.

 

[batman]

Su-57 is specifically designed to kill other stealth fighters. Its design doctrine is different from other "hunter-killer" stealth fighters. AMCA MK1 would just be a stepping stone towards the real deal that is MK2. AMCA MK2 is only going to be operationally ready around 2040. So between 2025 and 2040, we need around 200 Su-57MKIs with AL-51F1 engines and full TOT along with Joint Manufacturing rights.

Everything is being discussed as I am writing this and the world will know all details very soon

Hope we get the su57 because its easily the best designed fighter jet on the planet right now and closest to 6th gen category right now. American jets are meant for 3rd world countries with 3rd and 4th generation jets while su57 is meant to hunt down 5th gen jets.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Hope we get the su57 because its easily the best designed fighter jet on the planet right now and closest to 6th gen category right now.

A fully mature Su-57 with AL-51F1 engines/flat nozzles is going to be a fiend of the sky capable of hunting even the 6th gen ELO jets.

American jets are meant for 3rd world countries with 3rd and 4th generation jets while su57 is meant to hunt down 5th gen jets.

They are fully alert to the threat. They tried to do massive propaganda against Su-57, yet Russians marched on with it. They know that F-22 & F-35 won't be able to stop Su-57 just like they knew back then that their F-15s/F-16s and even European Rafale/Typhoon/Gripen can't vanquish Su-35M and its derivatives like our MKI, so F-22 was needed. Hence now F-47 is required to defeat Su-57 and other PLAAF VLO/ELO fighters.