My understanding of what happened. Lets hear some hard truths.
For all the glazing of Modi, he is a moron strategically. Pakistan Army wanted a conflict to reduce its unpopularity. Modi gave it straight to them. No-full scale war is possible b/w India & Pakistan as Pakistanis will run to US the moment they lose battlefield momentum. This is exactly what they did. Randirona of nuclear war was started after IAF airstrikes at Nur Khan AFB as their nuclear command authority was housed in close proximity to that Base. Pakistani Military feared decapitating strikes on their nuclear command & control centres(which I dont think IAF would've done anyways, baseless fears). They ran to papa Trump to stop this conflict as IAF siezed the battlefield momentum with their precise Stand-off Strikes, which would've continued if this ceasefire wasn't in place.
[Wierdly, Pakistanis seem to believe that India wanted this ceasefire, but why would Modi be angry at Trump if that was true??? IAF had just started gaining momentum, why would they want to stop??? Pakistanis are incapable of identifying lies from their establishment]
Trump being the moron he is, gave trade threats to both sides to back down & felt he saved the world from the brink of nuclear war, not realising that its just pakistani military bluffing because they wanted a ceasefire.
Though the side-effect of this popularity gained by Pak Military is, Imran Khan's fight against gernails has weakened. Gernails will continue to loot pakistanis & their economy will not turn around for good. They will be struggling with these complex economic issues 10 years from now as well. These issues are beyond the aukaat of gernails & the gap b/w Pakistani & Indian economy will keep growing. India will add $400 billion(nominally) to its economy every year from now on. India's exports will surpass $1 trillion in 2-3 years.
Iran on the other hand, had the appropriate response to Pakistan. Just rain some hypersonic missiles on them & move on. India should've done the same. Our economy is our greatest strength. Everything flows from it. The more hurdles we put in, more we will suffer. Useless conflicts with Pakistan are just such hurdles. Paradoxically, the only reason Modi bowed to Trump's pressure of ceasefire is the trade leverage that US has over India. Trump cant do the same with China, why??? because of their economy. Your economy is the source of all your power. This is what I was saying. But this simple fact is hard for people to grasp. Power trip & ego. Once we become a $15-$20 trillion economy then the world is our playground, you fuc_king morons. Till then keep your head down & grow. This goal should be the first priority.
Coming to Air Forces:
PAF did very well on the first day to interrupt the IAF strike package. Commendable job. They downed atleast 2 IAF aircrafts but that didn't really stop the airstrikes from continuing. 9 targets struck. Bahawalpur, which is in the heart of Pakistani Punjab was struck.
These expandable illiterates of JeM & LeT that felt very secure, in the heartland of a nuclear country were turned to red mush in seconds. Something to applaud.
I didn't think IAF had the balls to do this. Objective completed but at the cost of 3 a/c atleast.
Daniel Pearl's death was avenged by a co-incidence.
The strategy to not attack the PAF but strike the terrorists has turned out to be disastrous. No one seems to be asking why not a single meteor has been found in Pakistan. Modi sent in the airforce with their hands tied. Its a miracle that only such a few a/c were downed in such a large operation.
Political narratives were more important to Modi than rational military objectives. He didn't want to be seen as an attacker, so he barred the IAF from SEAD/DEAD missions. Great!!! as a result, Modi lost both a/c & narrative. Incredible!!! IAF saved modi's *censored* by their glorious spectacle of airstrikes inside the heartland of a credible nuclear power. I dont think these types of thundering airstrikes inside a nuclear country will be seen often, if ever.
So.....gooooood!!!!
After day 1, PAF's effectiveness dropped off the cliff. Looks like they only cared about the optics & narrative.
Drone strikes were escalating.
Pakistan launched a projectile towards Delhi which was intercepted over Hisar, Haryana. I have no idea what it was.
In retaliation, IAF resumed their air-launched stand-off airstrikes. IAF struck around 4 of their bases on May 10. In response, an emotionally charged PAF seems to have rushed in(seem to have consumed their own propaganda) & lost multiple a/c around Kashmir. Hushed down to facilitate ceasefire. Looks like we will only get to hear these stories a decade from now.
Up until this point, only the Airforces were going toe to toe, but Pakistanis strarted posting videos of their Fatah -1/2 strikes openly. This is the point at which Brahmos were fired on PAF bases across Pakistan.
Then the ceasefire started.
Something to note:
None of India's other services(Army & Navy) were involved in the offensive part of this op. No ground launched missiles were used by India. No ballistic missiles were used. Pakistani military spins tall tales about everything to exaggerate their achievemnts. Sharif seems to be saying that a ballistic missile struck Nur Khan AFB, which is a lie. It was either a scalp or Brahmos. You cant get such pin-point accuracy with ballistic missiles. It would've missed.
Here, I will post 2 very important clips that I found from Md zubair of Altnews. He caught Pakistani Military lying in 4k, people seem have missed this.
A concise video to explain brazen lies Pakistani Military tells their people.
I was stunned how can militaries lie to their people so openly!!! But then this is Pakistan we are talking about. They refused to accept their dead soldiers in Kargil. What can you expect??
Some other lies that pakmil tells to their people(that i can remember off the top of my head):
1. Indian missiles striking Afghanistan. I am not sure who will believe this but ok.
2. Pakistan knocking out electricity in 70% of India with cyber-warfare. WTF?? who believes this??
(Pakistan meri bijli wapis nahin aayi, meri bijli wapis karo!!!!
)
3. Striking Brahmos depot. No footage, no satellite images, nothing.
4. Taking out S-400 at Adampur. Modi debunked it the next day by visiting Adampur & taking photographs with S-400. Pakistanis are still coping about this one.
5. PAF struck 26 Airbases in India. I didn't even know India had these many airbases. But, still no satelite imagery was provided.
Then as usual with Pakistanis, conspiracy theories started flying off. First the conspiracy was that Pakistani establishment didnt want to embarrass India so no satellite imagery was being released. Then NatSecJef(Frhan Jaffrey) came up with a cope that Indian Military doesnt allow photography of its military bases. As if India can stop any private company outside of its jurisdiction from doing so
Even more hilarious, the very next day, imagery of Indian Airbases started coming out showing absolutely no damage anywhere.
Damien Symon's entire timeline is just debunking Pakistani photoshopped images one after the other.
So, PAF threw everything they had at India & India's ADS absorbed everything. Other branches of Pakistani Military got involved but they still couldn't get through. Then IAF started to let loose of its Brahmos strikes & pakistani establishment ran to Trump. Mind you, IAF is the weakest of 3 services in India. Incredible !!
Lots to learn from this conflict.
Some very astute observations from Indranil.
Iran did a better job by just pummeling Pakistan & moving on. There is not much to do with Pakistan than to just let them be as they watch our economy grow by leaps & bounds. Sending in non-stealth a/c in dense AD environments is just a recipie for disaster.
Rafale is just another 4th gen fighter. Susceptible to being shot down just like any other non-stealth a/c. Most poeple here already know that I hate Rafales. This conflict made this point glaringly clear. there is no point in spending $300 mil on a non-stealth a/c. Its not a magic bullet. Meteor cant be guided by Indian AWACS. The one with superior kill chain will win. That requires investment in Netra mk2 , Astra mk3 & Uttam derivatives, not buying gold-plated aircraft from abroad.
Modi will do all sorts of bakchodi but wont splurge money on domestic R&D, cause that doesn't bring in votes. Lets see if he can put money where his mouth is.
