MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

The IAF agreed to buy 83 Mk1A at Parrikar's prodding.

Once again, no. The IAF was always going to buy 83 more. They placed a hold on more orders until a new configuration was confirmed based on their maintainability evaluation. Parrikar only happened to be the RM at the time.

The GoI initially agreed but later decided to scrap SEF altogether. The IAF responded by proposing a substantial upgrade (aka MWF) of the Mk2 design which until then had been envisaged as a modest Mk1 ++ with minimal design changes (1m airframe plug, wider air intake, more fuel and weapons, new radar, etc)

IAF did not propose anything. They wanted SEF tender, but ADA promised to boost the LCA's design to sideline SEF. The IAF agreed to it 'cause the Mk2 was a superior design compared to SEFs.

Look at the dates.


MWF was already at its new configuration when Parrikar was around.

This is how far back everything goes. IAF releases their report, HAL gets around to fixing it. ADA realizes Mk1A relegates 2014 LCA to nothingness, so they get around to designing Mk2. By 2019, the Mk2 design surpasses M2000, and the IAF becomes comfortable with it. IAF backs out of SEF demand in 2019 and switches sight to TEF, aka, MRFA. No Parrikar involved in the beginning or the end.

The IAF had reservations about HALs ability to deliver Mk1A on time. It didn't want a 'three legged Cheetah' as characterized by a serving ACM.

The 83 Mk1A order was a result of direct intervention by GoI.

No. the three-legged cheetah comment was made in 2011, when ADA pushed an IOC-1 model. The IAF refused to accept that, and waited for IOC-2, which happened in 2013. This is when production for the first 20 was cleared. Then came the production for the next 20.

The remaining 83 were always meant to be ordered. It was guaranteed as part of the original program. HAL had already built the production line for the follow-on 83 alongside the first 20. Meaning, HAL was guaranteed to get 83 more long before Modi became PM.

The 120kN TF for AMCA alone is a 10 yr plus effort. Its why the IAF settled for the F414 powered Mk1 model. You're not getting a 6G VCE engine in 5-7 yrs.

10 years is for an operational engine. Getting the engine itself takes 3 years. Unlike aircraft that comes in bits and pieces, engine has to be in its final configuration right from when ground testing begins. AMCA's ground testing and first flight are expected 3 years after contract. And 6th gen's ground testing and first flight is 5-7 years.

Post that comes roughly 5 years of flight testing on two sets of FTBs. One on the MKI FTB, the other on the main fighter. Then comes production. That's 3+7 years.

So we will see 6th gen engine ready for testing in 5-7 years and then it will take another 7 years to get an operational engine. So 2036 for 5th gen engine and 2040 for 6th gen.

Standard engine design from scratch is 25 years. 10-15 years for material design and 10 years for system design. Our development is compressed because France is gonna supply the material design.

 

[randomradio]

Let's get to dumbsh!t opinions like why is France willing to hand over 5th and 6th gen tech.

The reason is simple, whenever India makes a technological breakthrough, foreign OEMs offer equivalent or better tech to force India to sideline the domestic program.

AMCA engine comes with a 2100K hot core, but the hot core will be based on a 4th gen nickel superalloy called MC-NG. M88 uses a third gen core. The MC-NG is equivalent in technology to India's DMS4. Both max out at 1400+K. The problem is India lacks cooling tech and mass production tech. In time we will get those and become a real competitor. But if France decides to give us all the tech we need right away, we get to save time, in exchange the French get to control future competition, 'cause they know they will remain ahead.

And how will France stay ahead? Pretty soon the French will begin ground testing of their definitive engine. But they have already been ground testing an AMCA equivalent engine since 2022.

France completes first engine test for its 6th generation fighter - AeroTime

The French General Directorate of Armaments (DGA) completed a first test for the development of the engine that will power the Future Combat Air System aircraft. The DGA announced on January 10, 2021, that a prototype derived from the M88, the engine of the Dassault Rafale fighter, was trialed...

www.aerotime.aero

The definitive engine will be a true 6th gen three-stream design with a CMC core. So when we are producing a 5th gen engine, they will be producing a 6th gen engine. And once we are tied into their program, they control the pace of it. And this way, they control our ability to export too, because our products will be inferior to French ones, AMCA and TEDBF vs SCAF.

That's why I'm glad the IAF did not allow GTRE to go ahead with K10 and sideline the Kabini core. We have the material tech already, we only need to spend some additional money and time to get the Kabini to a 5th gen level and we are going to do that with Kaveri 2.0. Kaveri 1 uses the older DMD titanium hot core that gives us F404 performance and Kaveri 2 will use the DMS4 nickel superalloy to give us F414 performance. With the right production and cooling tech coming in via American and French programs, we can get 5th gen performance out of it. So at least our indigenous program, even if way behind the French one, will proceed with our own tech. This way at least one engine program is not held hostage by FOEMs.

Similarly, Picdel was of the opinion that TEDBF was created to ensure India gets FOEM carrier and naval fighter tech and that once achieved, after signing Rafale M, he assumed TEDBF would be sidelined and canceled. But he didn't realize TEDBF is our Kaveri 2. We are developing an incrementally superior version of Rafale (in some roles) to ensure we don't remain hostage to an FOEM.

It is as wasteful as Kaveri 2, but we are spending more money to buy time with imports so the overall aerospace program is not affected.

If we pursue a purely domestic program, we would get engine tech for lower cost, but AMCA and TEDBF would end up with foreign engines built locally. Double spending ensures we lose some money but get to retain strategic autonomy for our domestic programs, even if they remain inferior to France's upcoming programs. The French get to make money, we are not a serious export threat, and we get to have strategic autonomy, which is also politically in France's favor.

The Americans and Russians do not want India to have strategic autonomy, so we get nothing concrete from them. Only the Europeans are interested in building India up as a new power pole. That's why they are willing to share advanced naval, air, and space tech.

The private sector's position on AMCA has not affected it, it was constantly under CDR and redesign after all. ADA was allowed to begin the tender for a production partner after Rafale GTG was essentially approved by DRDO. I'm guessing both MRFA RFP release and choosing AMCA's production partner will happen in the same month, essentially in May.

 

[Jarvis]

Though I earlier argued against acquisition of Rafales in such huge numbers for such humungous sum, my opinion has changed now.

We have also to consider the possibility of failure of the Tejas Mk2 program or delays therein. What if there is a design error which stretches the development and refinement for few more years or beyond 2035? We will be left only with induction of 180 Mk1A till 2035, if we will not buy the Rafales in bulk numbers. At the same time Jaguars, Mig-29 and Mirages will be at the end of their lives. It will cripple the IAF for at least 2 decades and will be disastrous for our defence preparedness.

Anyway I don't believe that the Tejas Mk2 will mature before 2032-33 even if the first flight is this year itself. Fighter jets take years for refinment and fine tuning. We are still doing that for Tejas Mk1A, despite having the template with Mk1.

Rafales will be our safety net and allow our domestic programs enough time to mature, in case things go wrong.

 

[DerBerserker]

Though I earlier argued against acquisition of Rafales in such huge numbers for such humungous sum, my opinion has changed now.

We have also to consider the possibility of failure of the Tejas Mk2 program or delays therein. What if there is a design error which stretches the development and refinement for few more years or beyond 2035? We will be left only with induction of 180 Mk1A till 2035, if we will not buy the Rafales in bulk numbers. At the same time Jaguars, Mig-29 and Mirages will be at the end of their lives. It will cripple the IAF for at least 2 decades and will be disastrous for our defence preparedness.

Anyway I don't believe that the Tejas Mk2 will mature before 2032-33 even if the first flight is this year itself. Fighter jets take years for refinment and fine tuning. We are still doing that for Tejas Mk1A, despite having the template with Mk1.

Rafales will be our safety net and allow our domestic programs enough time to mature, in case things go wrong.

Sorry for jumping into the topic a bit blind, but, given the current state of India's squadron strength (~29 after the MiG-21s were retired), imo the 114 Rafales will also be an essential part in bringing the IAF back to a state where it can comfortably face the possibility of a two-front war. Furthermore, if the rumored squadron expansion plan goes through, then the importance of acquiring 114 Rafales will increase by an order of magnitude in order to supplant the older 29UPG, Mirage 2000, and Jaguar airframes, as you mentioned. (I'll to continue this train of thought later)

 

[Jarvis]

Sorry for jumping into the topic a bit blind, but, given the current state of India's squadron strength (~29 after the MiG-21s were retired), imo the 114 Rafales will also be an essential part in bringing the IAF back to a state where it can comfortably face the possibility of a two-front war. Furthermore, if the rumored squadron expansion plan goes through, then the importance of acquiring 114 Rafales will increase by an order of magnitude in order to supplant the older 29UPG, Mirage 2000, and Jaguar airframes, as you mentioned. (I'll to continue this train of thought later)

Though 114 Rafales will definitely aid in fighting 2 front war, the real question is how effective and potent they would be against Chinese 5th gen planes. My initial objection was on the fact that we are spending $36 billion on 4.5th gen aircraft which will unlikely help us counter the PLAAF. We have to believe in IAF's wisdom for that I guess. For Pakistan, even our current fleet is enough. This acquisition will tie significant amount of IAF's capex for at least a decade.

However, we cannot put all our eggs in Tejas Mk2 basket. We have to be prepared for uncertainties and possible delays in the program. For that we don't have any option other than Rafales, though deliveries will start in 2029-2030 at the earliest, if the contract is signed this FY. But whenever the Mk2 matures, we must induct it in huge numbers (at least 300 IMO). That would be critical for proper development of our aerospace industry.

 

[DerBerserker]

Though 114 Rafales will definitely aid in fighting 2 front war, the real question is how effective and potent they would be against Chinese 5th gen planes. My initial objection was on the fact that we are spending $36 billion on 4.5th gen aircraft which will unlikely help us counter the PLAAF. We have to believe in IAF's wisdom for that I guess. For Pakistan, even our current fleet is enough. This acquisition will tie significant amount of IAF's capex for at least a decade.

However, we cannot put all our eggs in Tejas Mk2 basket. We have to be prepared for uncertainties and possible delays in the program. For that we don't have any option other than Rafales, though deliveries will start in 2029-2030 at the earliest, if the contract is signed this FY. But whenever the Mk2 matures, we must induct it in huge numbers (at least 300 IMO). That would be critical for proper development of our1 aerospace industry.

I have my own ideology as to what the J-20 does, and how its designed to perform. I would be going off topic if I gave an explanation beyond what I'm about to blabber about here, but I feel like the tactic of destroying their airfields with munitions like the Brahmos, SCALP-EG, AASM HAMMER, RAMPAGE, and SAAWs (as were utilised in the latter half of Op Sindoor), would be the key to subduing the Chinese aerial advantage. By taking out their airfields, as they will no doubt try to do to ours (though we have a far higher saturation of ADSs on our side, as far as I am aware), we can greatly suppress their single greatest advantage over India, their massive advantage in the air, both technologically and numerically (I say suppress and not eliminate as they'll probably use their massive road/infrastructure development as emergency landing strips). The Rafale, as we've seen, is very good at the A2G role, and the sophistication SPECTRA will certainly help it, and us, significantly when it comes to SEAD/DEAD.

China, almost certainly, cannot focus its entire force on us (certainly not its 5th Gens, again, it comes down to my deduction of what the J-20 is meant to do). It has to keep a sizeable chunk of its armed forces (including its most advanced units, so the more modern J-20A/S and J-35As) at its borders with Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, in order to project its power and dissuade any American advances. I think the Rafale will still perform extremely well against their platforms like the modernised J-11s, J-10s, J-16s, and may have a fighting chance against the J-20s, if India assumes an offensive A2A posture and effectively uses its force multipliers. The real threats in my mind are things like the GJ-11, and their stealth wingman drones/UCAVs, their only real counter would be either a 5th Gen, something like the CATS Warrior, or the Ghatak/RPSV UCAV if equipped with AAMs. (I believe that the ROEs were behind our subpar performance in the air during Sindoor, which was contrasted by the brilliant usage of our ADSs)

Another major thing I've realised by looking at the recent conflicts is that most 5th Gens are honestly quite a middling choice of aircraft after you've both obtained air superiorty and once SEAD has been conducted. 4.5 Gens are many times cheaper to operate, are more rugged/resilient, require lower maintenance, have significantly higher payload capacities and are capable of carrying a far more diverse set of armament (which IWBs can constrain). Longer loiter + combat ranges also make them extremely useful for CAPs and long range strike missions in contested areas, where an MRTT or Tanker would be a prime target. IMO, 4.5 Gens hit that sweet spot of reduced RCS, endurance, operational availability, and heavy-duty capabilities. This is not to say 5th gen aircraft are not important, or that they are a fad of any sort. They will absolutely be essential for any first-tier air force, such as the IAF, and are certainly the future (along with UCAVs) of aerial warfare. Its just that 4.5 Gens will remain essential, in my opinion, for a very long time.

The Rafale deal, I believe, also upgrades our existing F3R fleet to the F4 standard, which would be highly beneficial. If I'm right, this deal does enable us to integrate our own weapons locally, but no more than that in terms of fiddling with the software. I absolutely agree that we should not put all our eggs in one basket, regarding Tejas Mk2 just yet. However, I feel like about 180~200 Tejas Mk2s would be sufficient instead of say ~300 for three main reasons, and a few other smaller points here and there:
1. I think the AMCA programme will aim to induct around 200~240 aircraft, and that will serve as the backbone of the IAF for years to come.

2. India might procure the Su-57 as an interim solution regarding 5th Gens. For us, it is definitely a better choice than the F-35 purely due to the fact that we will not need to surrender any sort of strategic autonomy or bend to the whims and fancies of the US. It is a very capable airframe, especially in the A2G role, far more so than the F-35 is as far as I'm aware. Despite the speculation around its RCS (which might not be wholly accurate either), the advantages it can provide us are substantial (A rapid induction/delivery timeframe, localised production, ToT, it meshing into the existing 30MKI's supply and logistical chains really well, and Indian upgrades/missiles amongst other things). Again, this is in part related to the point you made regarding Tejas Mk2 not being wholly mature.

3. In the future, there may be a surge in the usage of Wingman Drones/UCAVs like the Ghatak, and possibly the Dassault nEUROn, to supplement our 4.5 Gen fleet. Thus enabling them to at least go toe-to-toe with 5th Gen aircraft, this might just replace the need to induct as many manned airframes.

 

[lmaoxd]

I have my own ideology as to what the J-20 does, and how its designed to perform. I would be going off topic if I gave an explanation beyond what I'm about to blabber about here, but I feel like the tactic of destroying their airfields with munitions like the Brahmos, SCALP-EG, AASM HAMMER, RAMPAGE, and SAAWs (as were utilised in the latter half of Op Sindoor), would be the key to subduing the Chinese aerial advantage. By taking out their airfields, as they will no doubt try to do to ours (though we have a far higher saturation of ADSs on our side, as far as I am aware), we can greatly suppress their single greatest advantage over India, their massive advantage in the air, both technologically and numerically (I say suppress and not eliminate as they'll probably use their massive road/infrastructure development as emergency landing strips). The Rafale, as we've seen, is very good at the A2G role, and the sophistication SPECTRA will certainly help it, and us, significantly when it comes to SEAD/DEAD.

China, almost certainly, cannot focus its entire force on us (certainly not its 5th Gens, again, it comes down to my deduction of what the J-20 is meant to do). It has to keep a sizeable chunk of its armed forces (including its most advanced units, so the more modern J-20A/S and J-35As) at its borders with Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, in order to project its power and dissuade any American advances. I think the Rafale will still perform extremely well against their platforms like the modernised J-11s, J-10s, J-16s, and may have a fighting chance against the J-20s, if India assumes an offensive A2A posture and effectively uses its force multipliers. The real threats in my mind are things like the GJ-11, and their stealth wingman drones/UCAVs, their only real counter would be either a 5th Gen, something like the CATS Warrior, or the Ghatak/RPSV UCAV if equipped with AAMs. (I believe that the ROEs were behind our subpar performance in the air during Sindoor, which was contrasted by the brilliant usage of our ADSs)

Another major thing I've realised by looking at the recent conflicts is that most 5th Gens are honestly quite a middling choice of aircraft after you've both obtained air superiorty and once SEAD has been conducted. 4.5 Gens are many times cheaper to operate, are more rugged/resilient, require lower maintenance, have significantly higher payload capacities and are capable of carrying a far more diverse set of armament (which IWBs can constrain). Longer loiter + combat ranges also make them extremely useful for CAPs and long range strike missions in contested areas, where an MRTT or Tanker would be a prime target. IMO, 4.5 Gens hit that sweet spot of reduced RCS, endurance, operational availability, and heavy-duty capabilities. This is not to say 5th gen aircraft are not important, or that they are a fad of any sort. They will absolutely be essential for any first-tier air force, such as the IAF, and are certainly the future (along with UCAVs) of aerial warfare. Its just that 4.5 Gens will remain essential, in my opinion, for a very long time.

The Rafale deal, I believe, also upgrades our existing F3R fleet to the F4 standard, which would be highly beneficial. If I'm right, this deal does enable us to integrate our own weapons locally, but no more than that in terms of fiddling with the software. I absolutely agree that we should not put all our eggs in one basket, regarding Tejas Mk2 just yet. However, I feel like about 180~200 Tejas Mk2s would be sufficient instead of say ~300 for three main reasons, and a few other smaller points here and there:
1. I think the AMCA programme will aim to induct around 200~240 aircraft, and that will serve as the backbone of the IAF for years to come.

2. India might procure the Su-57 as an interim solution regarding 5th Gens. For us, it is definitely a better choice than the F-35 purely due to the fact that we will not need to surrender any sort of strategic autonomy or bend to the whims and fancies of the US. It is a very capable airframe, especially in the A2G role, far more so than the F-35 is as far as I'm aware. Despite the speculation around its RCS (which might not be wholly accurate either), the advantages it can provide us are substantial (A rapid induction/delivery timeframe, localised production, ToT, it meshing into the existing 30MKI's supply and logistical chains really well, and Indian upgrades/missiles amongst other things). Again, this is in part related to the point you made regarding Tejas Mk2 not being wholly mature.

3. In the future, there may be a surge in the usage of Wingman Drones/UCAVs like the Ghatak, and possibly the Dassault nEUROn, to supplement our 4.5 Gen fleet. Thus enabling them to at least go toe-to-toe with 5th Gen aircraft, this might just replace the need to induct as many manned airframes.

The issue is that China will have 1k stealth jets by 2033 ish. They simply have so many jets that putting a few against in the tibetian border would still completely dwarf our force.
A stop gap wouldn't really be so effective compared to a force of say 120 ish su57s. This is precisely why im so hesitant with respect to rafales. Theyre good but they can do jackshit against china by the early 2030s. Our upgraded su30s are the only jets in the 4.5 gen category that truly stand even a sliver of a chance. Unless ofc they start mass producing and completely covering the entire border with a high density of mobile photonic radar units(assuming their powerful enough ofc)
Like i said In case of a 2 front war we need complete and swift dominance over pakistan. Even then the pakistani army is large enough to give us trouble when they cooperate with the chinese, on their own theyre not great but with chinese intel and coop as well as the gifting of equipment they would become a relatively decent force.

The Russo-ukraine war is the ultimate decider. If it continues onto 2028 then say bye bye to su57. Nobody knows, maybe the 114 rafale deal is a screen to get europe to shut up and all the US deals are also for US to shut up cause CAATSA would just be stupid against us with so many active deals in implementation. They might waiver considering our only neighbours are pakistan and china and they need china to position at least some 5th gens on the tibet/ easterns side of china. God knows what the GOI is going to do. Hell i doubt they know what theyre going to do in this fked up situation.

At the end of the day we also have to realise that our economic relations with the EU vastly outweigh relations with russia. For the future we need EU-India relations to be friendly. With the ukraine war EU will respond very poorly to any military buy from russia, hell just oil got them worked up now imagine weapons. Although we could say we had no choice since the US will never sell a F35 to someone with a russian AD like the s400.

 

[DerBerserker]

The issue is that China will have 1k stealth jets by 2033 ish. They simply have so many jets that putting a few against in the tibetian border would still completely dwarf our force.
A stop gap wouldn't really be so effective compared to a force of say 120 ish su57s. This is precisely why im so hesitant with respect to rafales. Theyre good but they can do jackshit against china by the early 2030s. Our upgraded su30s are the only jets in the 4.5 gen category that truly stand even a sliver of a chance. Unless ofc they start mass producing and completely covering the entire border with a high density of mobile photonic radar units(assuming their powerful enough ofc)
Like i said In case of a 2 front war we need complete and swift dominance over pakistan. Even then the pakistani army is large enough to give us trouble when they cooperate with the chinese, on their own theyre not great but with chinese intel and coop as well as the gifting of equipment they would become a relatively decent force.

The Russo-ukraine war is the ultimate decider. If it continues onto 2028 then say bye bye to su57. Nobody knows, maybe the 114 rafale deal is a screen to get europe to shut up and all the US deals are also for US to shut up cause CAATSA would just be stupid against us with so many active deals in implementation. They might waiver considering our only neighbours are pakistan and china and they need china to position at least some 5th gens on the tibet/ easterns side of china. God knows what the GOI is going to do. Hell i doubt they know what theyre going to do in this fked up situation.

At the end of the day we also have to realise that our economic relations with the EU vastly outweigh relations with russia. For the future we need EU-India relations to be friendly. With the ukraine war EU will respond very poorly to any military buy from russia, hell just oil got them worked up now imagine weapons. Although we could say we had no choice since the US will never sell a F35 to someone with a russian AD like the s400.

The Rafale is a very sophisticated jet, SPECTRA's DAW, DDM NG, BDM, and its other SPSs (+ Towed Decoys) are going to give it a great advantage in facing Chinese jets overall imo. And as for China making 1k Stealth jets by 2033, I'm not very inclined towards the 1000 mark, ~700 would make sense, (as they'd pump out the J-35A, but also need to modernise their older J-20s) but even then, what use is a stealth fighter if it can't take off? Though yes, it is still a major cause for concern, them being able to match our entire Flanker-H fleet numerically with what is considered a 5th Gen airframe is something that needs to be remedied urgently.

I wholly agree 100~120 Su-57s would be a great purchase for us (totally not biased because totally do not I adore the Felon, or anything like that), and the 30MKI Supers would be a solid bet against their jets (afterall, they would seriously contend with the J-16 for the title of Best Flanker ever produced), especially given their reduced RCS, MAWS integration (though we already have the DARE DC-MAWS pod for the 30MKI, and apparently some capability built in already as I understand it?), advanced SPJs, and other things. I still do think that even with the aforementioned reduced RCS of the 30MKI (already has been, and to a good extent afaik), the Rafale would have an even lower radar return, and as such would have the best chance against the J-20s. And as for photonic radars, aside from being rather successful with it, China's switched to Gallium Oxide, and apparently we've begun our own research into that too (IIRC), not stagnating on GaN is a wise move.
Pakistan's biggest threat to the Indian Armed Forces is their only competent branch, their Air Force, knocking it out essentially defeats Pakistan. Once SEAD/DEAD and we restore their hangars and runways to the state we left RYK's and Bholari's in, the IA will almost assuredly steamroll the Pakistani land forces.

The Russo-Ukraine conflict actually has seen Russia's MIC just now rise to the challenge, with them actually having more of a few weapon systems in service now than when the conflict began. This holds especially true for the the T-90, and more importantly in our case, the Su-57. They've had a constant output stable enough for them to successfully export a few units of the 57E to Algeria, whilst consistently inducting their own in batches of 4~6 aircraft every now and then. A licensed production deal with India would be even more convenient for both parties involved. I think the EU understands India's position, they do stand to gain a lot if India does acquire Su-57s too, just look at Japan. They practice with Indian 30MKIs in order to prepare the JASDF's pilots to face Chinese and Russian Flankers, the same goes for Europe and the USA. Them getting the chance to practice with a Felon would be unimaginably valuable for them.
One must also remember that India is not Turkiye, geopolitically we cannot be sidelined no matter what people think. The procurement of another 5 S-400 Squadrons, new missiles, and the Talwar Class (Batch 3 and now 4), haven't seemed to dissuade the USA, and especially the EU, when it comes to handling India at all so far. We've gone ahead with that and still been repeatedly offered/cleared to procure F-35s in a G2G deal, even as of just a few days ago, if memory serves me right. How I see it, its because India is the only real threat to China in the Asia-Pacific, and as such the EU and USA rely on us to serve as a counterbalance against a Chinese hegemony over Asia, to some extent, whether they like it or not. Additionally, the EU doesn't want to rely on the USA militarily as much anymore, India is a very lucrative ally to have. A lot of what they do regarding Russian Oil is nothing but a holier-than-thou charade, they do that and still find ways to trade with Russia until very recently. They're all just interested in their own self-interests - as all countries invariably are.
If India decides to buy the Su-57, the USA might need to be appeased slightly. The EU, on the other hand, is already too heavily involved with India. France is not going to give up on 36 Billion dollars (potentially more if the defence partnership increases), the MMRCA 2.0 (114 Rafale) deal is going to be the lifeblood of Dassault and France's Armee de l'Air et de l'Space for at least the next decade - Not just for the Rafale F5, but also for the FCAS. Neither will the UK given everything that's happening. IMO India is just going to be too important of a player for them to sanction beyond maybe like a nominal smack on the wrist over procurement of a fighter they will also inadvertently benefit from (both by India countering China more effectively, and becoming familiar with Russia's best aircraft through training exercises, should a conflict arise).

 

[Tamilan57]

The issue is that China will have 1k stealth jets by 2033 ish. They simply have so many jets that putting a few against in the tibetian border would still completely dwarf our force.
A stop gap wouldn't really be so effective compared to a force of say 120 ish su57s. This is precisely why im so hesitant with respect to rafales. Theyre good but they can do jackshit against china by the early 2030s. Our upgraded su30s are the only jets in the 4.5 gen category that truly stand even a sliver of a chance. Unless ofc they start mass producing and completely covering the entire border with a high density of mobile photonic radar units(assuming their powerful enough ofc)
Like i said In case of a 2 front war we need complete and swift dominance over pakistan. Even then the pakistani army is large enough to give us trouble when they cooperate with the chinese, on their own theyre not great but with chinese intel and coop as well as the gifting of equipment they would become a relatively decent force.

The Russo-ukraine war is the ultimate decider. If it continues onto 2028 then say bye bye to su57. Nobody knows, maybe the 114 rafale deal is a screen to get europe to shut up and all the US deals are also for US to shut up cause CAATSA would just be stupid against us with so many active deals in implementation. They might waiver considering our only neighbours are pakistan and china and they need china to position at least some 5th gens on the tibet/ easterns side of china. God knows what the GOI is going to do. Hell i doubt they know what theyre going to do in this fked up situation.

At the end of the day we also have to realise that our economic relations with the EU vastly outweigh relations with russia. For the future we need EU-India relations to be friendly. With the ukraine war EU will respond very poorly to any military buy from russia, hell just oil got them worked up now imagine weapons. Although we could say we had no choice since the US will never sell a F35 to someone with a russian AD like the s400.

India will not trust EU in critical matters. EU simply does not have the same leverage as US in terms of controlling other countries.

Right now Militarily, India needs EU in fighter jets, Aero Engines, gas turbines(Zoria-Mashproekt) . Economically, India needs EU in technology and investment(FDI into India).

India definitely will never antagonize Russia in critical matters. India will bank on the assumption that Russia will never attack a EU country.

But you are right in the sense that hostile Russian and EU relations are a huge thorn for us.

Once this Ukraine-Russia war ends(lets say 2030), Russia will start modernising its MIC for the next 10 years before it attacks any other country in Europe or worse EUROPEAN UNION.

So, India has got like a 15 year window before which we have to get all critical military technologies like Aero Engines, fighter jet manufacturing, Gas turbines.

 

[DerBerserker]

India will not trust EU in critical matters. EU simply does not have the same leverage as US in terms of controlling other countries.

Right now Militarily, India needs EU in fighter jets, Aero Engines, gas turbines(Zoria-Mashproekt) . Economically, India needs EU in technology and investment(FDI into India).

India definitely will never antagonize Russia in critical matters. India will bank on the assumption that Russia will never attack a EU country.

But you are right in the sense that hostile Russian and EU relations are a huge thorn for us.

Once this Ukraine-Russia war ends(lets say 2030), Russia will start modernising its MIC for the next 10 years before it attacks any other country in Europe or worse EUROPEAN UNION.

So, India has got like a 15 year window before which we have to get all critical military technologies like Aero Engines, fighter jet manufacturing, Gas turbines.

Conversely, wouldn't India would rely on Europe a bit more than it would on the USA? The way I see it, India can pressure the EU just fine, it cannot exert nearly the same amount/level of leverage and force on the USA. The EU needs India for production/manufacturing, it needs us to buy their goods, services, and their military hardware. We are one of the largest markets on Earth, and an economy with arguably the most potential on Earth, I doubt they're going to want to miss out on that. And regarding, India not antagonizing Russia, that's a hard agree from me. India would rather serve as a mediator or be neutral in a EU-Russian conflict imo. The GTRE-Safran/RR AHTCE deal is perfect. We need to push for this, while using the localised production of the GE F-414-INS6 and its manufacturing ToT (since afaik the ToT does not include metallurgical tech, but is heavily geared towards production tech, which we desperately need in order to further refine Kaveri for the KDE/potential Kaveri 2.0). MIDHANI is doing well on the metallurgical front thankfully, and HAL does produce GE's Marine Gas Turbines (the LM2500, as used in the Shivalik Class, Nilgiri Class, and in INS Vikrant, and the NGMCs) though we do need to focus on KMGT, and a MGT derivative of the AHTCE. As for Fighter Jet Manufacturing, getting non-DPSU players into the game would help massively, as HAL is the only ones who know how to make things. Getting them to focus on Tejas Mk1A/Mk2, and the Su-57 will be more than enough, potentially with some HAL folk jumping over to whoever works on the AMCA.

 

[Tamilan57]

Conversely, wouldn't India would rely on Europe a bit more than it would on the USA? The way I see it, India can pressure the EU just fine, it cannot exert nearly the same amount/level of leverage and force on the USA. The EU needs India for production/manufacturing, it needs us to buy their goods, services, and their military hardware. We are one of the largest markets on Earth, and an economy with arguably the most potential on Earth, I doubt they're going to want to miss out on that. And regarding, India not antagonizing Russia, that's a hard agree from me. India would rather serve as a mediator or be neutral in a EU-Russian conflict imo. The GTRE-Safran/RR AHTCE deal is perfect. We need to push for this, while using the localised production of the GE F-414-INS6 and its manufacturing ToT (since afaik the ToT does not include metallurgical tech, but is heavily geared towards production tech, which we desperately need in order to further refine Kaveri for the KDE/potential Kaveri 2.0). MIDHANI is doing well on the metallurgical front thankfully, and HAL does produce GE's Marine Gas Turbines (the LM2500, as used in the Shivalik Class, Nilgiri Class, and in INS Vikrant, and the NGMCs) though we do need to focus on KMGT, and a MGT derivative of the AHTCE. As for Fighter Jet Manufacturing, getting non-DPSU players into the game would help massively, as HAL is the only ones who know how to make things. Getting them to focus on Tejas Mk1A/Mk2, and the Su-57 will be more than enough, potentially with some HAL folk jumping over to whoever works on the AMCA.

Thanks to Trump, EU will want its own MIC to mature and reach good production numbers. To do that, India is their best bet both in terms of buying capacity/customer of its MIC and production capacity.

Funny thing about Rolls Royce is that they have basically become sub-contractors in the last 10 years. India needs to leverage this opportunity to get tech transfers from RR both on gas turbines and Aero Engines. EJ200 is nearly 80 percent done by RR.

Thing to note is that Green party in UK is gaining power and they are equating Modi's Hindutva to Israel's Zionism. Look at their recent election campaigns. Also consider that UK is basically the slave of USA. Right now, UK is slowly shifting towards taking a stance with EU which is a good thing from the Indian perspective.

In the long run, EU along with UK is not a long-term partner for India IMO atleast not like Russia. I will be happy if I am proven wrong. Even a positive long term relationship with EU is a huge victory for India. Look at the reactions of EU President Ursula, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Alex Soros on Hungary removing Orban and electing a new guy. Scary!!!! It is pretty much given that Democrats will win next election. US-EU relations under Democratic party in USA will be anti-Russia as it was under Biden. One good thing is that EU will want its own MIC to mature irrespective of how positive relations are between US and EU under the Democratic party. They have learned their lesson on this front.

With Russia, it is never a concern even for the next 100 years. India values that. From the Russian point of view, they will not help India achieve military autonomy in aero engines because they need us as customers for funding their MIC. That is why we are relying on US/EU for Aerospace.

 

[DerBerserker]

Thanks to Trump, EU will want its own MIC to mature and reach good production numbers. To do that, India is their best bet both in terms of buying capacity/customer of its MIC and production capacity.

Funny thing about Rolls Royce is that they have basically become sub-contractors in the last 10 years. India needs to leverage this opportunity to get tech transfers from RR both on gas turbines and Aero Engines. EJ200 is nearly 80 percent done by RR.

Thing to note is that Green party in UK is gaining power and they are equating Modi's Hindutva to Israel's Zionism. Look at their recent election campaigns. Also consider that UK is basically the slave of USA. Right now, UK is slowly shifting towards taking a stance with EU which is a good thing from the Indian perspective.

In the long run, EU along with UK is not a long-term partner for India IMO atleast not like Russia. I will be happy if I am proven wrong. Even a positive long term relationship with EU is a huge victory for India. Look at the reactions of EU President Ursula, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Alex Soros on Hungary removing Orban and electing a new guy. Scary!!!! It is pretty much given that Democrats will win next election. US-EU relations under Democratic party in USA will be anti-Russia as it was under Biden. One good thing is that EU will want its own MIC to mature irrespective of how positive relations are between US and EU under the Democratic party. They have learned their lesson on this front.

With Russia, it is never a concern even for the next 100 years. India values that. From the Russian point of view, they will not help India achieve military autonomy in aero engines because they need us as customers for funding their MIC. That is why we are relying on US/EU for Aerospace.

Wholly agreed. Europe also relies on India for artillery, ammunition, and other stuff. These deals will only increase in magnitude in the future, especially as India secures REE Supply Chains of its own (and starts refinement in house thus providing an alternative to China), and once the Indian MIC fully matures.
I think their reliance on us for production is especially true as firms such as Airbus are pumping money in and trying to involve India in its production lines. I also do often feel that going for the F-414-INS6 over the EJ230 was a misstep, or maybe even just a mistake. Albeit switching to the F414 for the MK2 from the F404 on the Tejas Mk1/1A would be a more seamless transition, given the time allocated to developing the Tejas Mk2, it would've been more than doable. On a side note, I feel like a partnership we should take great care to nurture is that of ours with Brazil. As a fellow BRICS nation, we already have a solid basis but we could massively benefit through stronger relations, especially due to companies like Embraer, and them serving as a possible defence export market. As much as I would love to continue, for now, I will have to get back to this in the morning, its almost 2AM for me.

 

[Hydra]

Though 114 Rafales will definitely aid in fighting 2 front war, the real question is how effective and potent they would be against Chinese 5th gen planes. My initial objection was on the fact that we are spending $36 billion on 4.5th gen aircraft which will unlikely help us counter the PLAAF. We have to believe in IAF's wisdom for that I guess. For Pakistan, even our current fleet is enough. This acquisition will tie significant amount of IAF's capex for at least a decade.

However, we cannot put all our eggs in Tejas Mk2 basket. We have to be prepared for uncertainties and possible delays in the program. For that we don't have any option other than Rafales, though deliveries will start in 2029-2030 at the earliest, if the contract is signed this FY. But whenever the Mk2 matures, we must induct it in huge numbers (at least 300 IMO). That would be critical for proper development of our aerospace industry.

J20 &J35 will be tackled easily by Rafale. The catch is the shear number of j20 not its quality.
Against their sixth gen aircraft, right now we don't know.

 

[lmaoxd]

what? no you have to be trolling. no way you actually believe that? no way. J35/j20 tackled by rafale? forgive me for asking but were you dropped on the head as a child? In a extremely favorable situation sure but when you go against an actual netoworked air force your getting cucked hard. stop being delusional.

J20 &J35 will be tackled easily by Rafale. The catch is the shear number of j20 not its quality.
Against their sixth gen aircraft, right now we don't know.

 

[Hydra]

what? no you have to be trolling. no way you actually believe that? no way. J35/j20 tackled by rafale? forgive me for asking but were you dropped on the head as a child? In a extremely favorable situation sure but when you go against an actual netoworked air force your getting cucked hard. stop being delusional.

Not trolling, the real danger is the number of j20 they be able to fly during war, 1000s aganst 114. We never gonna catch up Chinese in near future till our manufacturing capacity and ecenomy matches with them.
We already tracked j20 with vintage MKI, we can do better with rafale. Forget about everything, that airframe itself can't be ultra stealthy & sn air superiority fighter.

 

[lmaoxd]

Not trolling, the real danger is the number of j20 they be able to fly during war, 1000s aganst 114. We never gonna catch up Chinese in near future till our manufacturing capacity and ecenomy matches with them.
We already tracked j20 with vintage MKI, we can do better with rafale. Forget about everything, that airframe itself can't be ultra stealthy & sn air superiority fighter.

Yea i dont believe that news about the su30mki track. Seems like a classic **** article or someone from their ilk.
the numbers game is obvious but stealth on its own is worth a lot so they vastly outclass in both tech and scale. Its not close right now and wont be for another 20 yrs or so until we slowly catch up the same way china did with the US over the decades.

 

[DerBerserker]

Yea i dont believe that news about the su30mki track. Seems like a classic **** article or someone from their ilk.
the numbers game is obvious but stealth on its own is worth a lot so they vastly outclass in both tech and scale. Its not close right now and wont be for another 20 yrs or so until we slowly catch up the same way china did with the US over the decades.

The 30MKI track report might not be wholly innacurate since they probably had something like Luneberg Lenses equipped as it was just a patrol flight afaik. That and the true RCS of the J-20 is still unknown, the aspect it was seen at will also matter, as its probably optimised for a reduced frontal RCS.
And as for when I said the Rafale had a good shot at taking out the J-20, I assumed that GBI or an AEWACS would be involved. Otherwise, and even then (in a best case scenario), the chances of scoring a kill are basically extremely low lol. The SPECTRA system will probably help it survive the engagement if its reasonably far away, but it probably will not be able to fire on the target without external help making it kinda useless overall. We need something like the nEUROn or Ghatak (Stealth UCAV/Wingman) with a 4.5 Gen to actually combat 5th Gens.

 

[Hydra]

Its not close right now and wont be for another 20 yrs or so until we slowly catch up the same way china did with the US over the decades.

Money matters for cheap Indian mind, we all saw how Indians reacted with Rafale procurement earlier, and twitter gaga over ongoing procurement's price negotiations.You need to invest humongous amount of money to catch up with Chinese on number game ( indigenous or imported), indian minds will not be able to comprehend that. The paid media will start article against defense spend and opposition will riot in Parliament.

 

[DerBerserker]

Money matters for cheap Indian mind, we all saw how Indians reacted with Rafale procurement earlier, and twitter gaga over ongoing procurement's price negotiations.You need to invest humongous amount of money to catch up with Chinese on number game ( indigenous or imported), indian minds will not be able to comprehend that. The paid media will start article against defense spend and opposition will riot in Parliament.

A large amount of this comes down to education (or lack thereof) and a whole lot of stupid schemes imo. People also don't like to read about things properly.

 

[Hydra]

A large amount of this comes down to education (or lack thereof) and a whole lot of stupid schemes imo. People also don't like to read about things properly.

I am not talking where the money is diverted, i am talking about Indian mentality. That was same since eons, historically we used to pour money to build temples, we used to pour money inside temple vaults instead building military capabilities. After effect was hunders of years of slavery. We never learned a lesson, the sole objective of Pakistan is to conquer India establishe the mughal era glory to Muslims. Inspite of knowing this we still give damn about the military capabilities.