We'll see. The details should reveal themselves in the coming weeks/months. The J-10C is no joke.
F-16 block 70 equivalent / F-15EX
Even if the Rafale is better, it's just marginally better. What about the J-20C? The J-35A?
I'm glad the Rafale won the naval contract. SuperHornet doesn't really offer much.
J-10C, F-16 B70, and F-15EX are roughly around the same capability. The radar could be better on the J-10C owing to GaN, especially if it's all digital. The missile is better than the AMRAAM class too, so its only competitor will be the AIM-260.
Rafale is leagues better than all 3, and by a significant margin.
For example, the SH's radar is really good, so they took the older APG-63v3, added the APG-79's backend to it and called it APG-82, and that's the F-15EX's radar. So it's not even on the same level as the SH B3. B70 is somewhat better, but smaller. J-10C compensates with GaN.
Then comes Rafale's sensor fusion and defensive suite which are fully integrated with its radar and weapons systems. It's pretty much on part with the F-35. The Rafale F4 also comes with hardware that's half a generation ahead of the SH, like a digital radar, plus a bunch of hardware that does not exist on the Teens, like IRST and a camera. The MICA IR is slaved to MAWS, so its capable of automatically firing missiles at aircraft and other missiles when they get into a 15 km bubble. Then there's a whole bunch of passive networking and localization capabilities missing on the Teens.
And it can supercruise, climb faster, turn faster than any other Teen. Its maintenance is also significant superior due to its modular construction. It's built like a Lego, so you can take away the problematic parts and replace them with functioning ones. It only requires 8 hours on the ground versus the F-16's 20 hours.
You can say the Teens have a 4th gen airframe and engine and early 5th gen avionics (analog antennas, few receivers), but Rafale F4 has a 4.5th gen airframe and engine and later 5th gen avionics (digital antennas, multiple receivers). The Rafale F3R we are operating is similar to the Teens in terms of avionics, but still comes with better performance, IRST, and other survivability features like a sensor-fused towed decoy, apart from some stealth.
When the F5 comes in, it's gonna be a whole different beast. New engine, new unified radar/EW/comm system, MUM-T. It improves the airframe and comes with early 6th gen avionics along with drone control. For example, all other aircraft today have federated hardware and sensor fusion via software. But F5 will come with fully fused hardware and software, so all emitter systems will function as a single system. Even processing will be done at the TRM level. And it will give the Rafale full 360 deg radar capability.
French weapons used to be ahead, but the US has caught up now, even surpassed the French in long range systems.
Anyway, if you are planning to use the Rafale as a benchmark for your Teens, you will have to lower the bar. If the Rafale performs poorly, then the Teens are in even greater trouble.