MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
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L’évolution du Rafale vers le standard F5 d’ici 2035 sera indispensable pour la dissuasion nucléaire
The evolution of the Rafale to the F5 standard by 2035 will be essential for the nuclear deterrent
In January 2019, the F-4 standard of the Rafale was officially launched, via the award of a development contract to Dassault Aviation, worth two billion euros. Since then, a first "fitness for use review" [RAU] campaign, aimed at testing the new collaborative combat functionalities that this new version will have, has been carried out at Istres, under the responsibility of the DGA Flight Test Centre.
The validation of this F4 standard is scheduled for 2024. As a reminder, the Rafale will have enhanced cyber protection, an active antenna radar [AESA] RBE2 with new functionalities and increased connectivity. In addition, the Rafale's Protection and Avoidance of Fire Conduits System [SPECTRA] and its OSF [optronic front sector] will benefit from the latest technological developments. Finally, it will integrate a SCORPION helmet sight.
In the longer term, the "New Generation Fighter" [NGF], i.e. the fighter aircraft on which the Future Air Combat System [SCAF] will be based, a project carried out in the framework of cooperation between France, Germany and Spain, will replace the Rafale. According to the Common Operational Requirements Document [CORD], confirmed on 30 August, this aircraft will have to be able to carry the nuclear weapon, in this case the fourth generation air-to-ground nuclear missile [ASN4G], currently under development. In addition, a naval version will also have to be developed for the French Navy [and the FANu - Force Aéronavale Nucléaire].
Initially, the NGF was scheduled to enter service by 2035/2040. However, although the Bundestag's budget committee [lower house of the German Parliament] voted the minimum funds necessary for the continuation of this programme, thus paving the way for the signature of a tripartite intergovernmental agreement [IA3] last August, the contracts have still not been notified to the industrialists concerned [including Dassault Aviation and Airbus], even though, according to the Délégué général pour l'armement [DGA], Joël Barre, they should have been notified in October. As a reminder, disagreements over the industrial load and intellectual property have been in the news over the past few months...
Already, the first flight of an NGF demonstrator, previously expected for 2026, has been postponed by a year... And it is not excluded that this programme will experience further delays, whether for political or industrial reasons. This "would in no way be a strategic surprise in view of its complexity", underlined MP Christophe Lejeune in his latest report on the credits allocated to deterrence in the 2022 finance bill.
And even if the SCAF programme is spared such hazards, it is unlikely that the NGF will be able to carry out nuclear missions before 2050. This is, in any case, what the parliamentarian suggests, recalling that "several years have passed between the entry into service of the Rafale and its first nuclear alert" within the Strategic Air Forces [FAS].
"In short, the NGF will probably not carry out the nuclear mission before 2050, and in any case concurrently with the Rafale at first, like the pairing of the Rafale and the Mirage 2000N until the latter's withdrawal from service three years ago," writes Mr Lejeune.
Also, in view of technological developments, in particular in the area of A2/AD, the development of an F5 standard for the Rafale will be essential. In any case, the draftsman of the opinion has made this one of his points of attention for the future of the airborne component of the nuclear deterrent.
In his report he stresses "the importance of not overlooking the need for an aircraft with enhanced performance by 2035, the date on which the ASN 4G is expected to enter operational service" because, as General Laurent Rataud, Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programmes [SCPP] at the Air and Space Force [AAE] Staff, pointed out, "the Rafale will then have to face up to the challenges of the future, The Rafale will then have to face the most powerful ground-air defence systems, like the Russian S-500 and equivalent systems, and evolve in extremely scrambled environments, which will mean equipping it with electronic and navigational warfare means, as well as possibly powerful means of suppressing opposing air defences".
Mr Lejeune added: "This is why it is important to ensure that we have the means to develop a robust and effective F5 standard, especially as the SCAF NGF will probably not carry nuclear weapons as early as 2040."
That said, the Rafale's F5 standard is already being considered by the staffs. It "will enable us to further improve the Rafale's first entry capability, with new sensors and weapons, but also the ability to communicate, collaborate and be interoperable, General Frédéric Parisot, the AAE's major general, stated in a recent special issue of DSI magazine. "The contours of this standard have not yet been decided" but "in fifteen years' time, the Rafale will be equipped with an impressive number of capabilities, some of which we have not yet imagined", he added, without giving further details.
The evolution of the Rafale to the F5 standard by 2035 will be essential for the nuclear deterrent
In January 2019, the F-4 standard of the Rafale was officially launched, via the award of a development contract to Dassault Aviation, worth two billion euros. Since then, a first "fitness for use review" [RAU] campaign, aimed at testing the new collaborative combat functionalities that this new version will have, has been carried out at Istres, under the responsibility of the DGA Flight Test Centre.
The validation of this F4 standard is scheduled for 2024. As a reminder, the Rafale will have enhanced cyber protection, an active antenna radar [AESA] RBE2 with new functionalities and increased connectivity. In addition, the Rafale's Protection and Avoidance of Fire Conduits System [SPECTRA] and its OSF [optronic front sector] will benefit from the latest technological developments. Finally, it will integrate a SCORPION helmet sight.
In the longer term, the "New Generation Fighter" [NGF], i.e. the fighter aircraft on which the Future Air Combat System [SCAF] will be based, a project carried out in the framework of cooperation between France, Germany and Spain, will replace the Rafale. According to the Common Operational Requirements Document [CORD], confirmed on 30 August, this aircraft will have to be able to carry the nuclear weapon, in this case the fourth generation air-to-ground nuclear missile [ASN4G], currently under development. In addition, a naval version will also have to be developed for the French Navy [and the FANu - Force Aéronavale Nucléaire].
Initially, the NGF was scheduled to enter service by 2035/2040. However, although the Bundestag's budget committee [lower house of the German Parliament] voted the minimum funds necessary for the continuation of this programme, thus paving the way for the signature of a tripartite intergovernmental agreement [IA3] last August, the contracts have still not been notified to the industrialists concerned [including Dassault Aviation and Airbus], even though, according to the Délégué général pour l'armement [DGA], Joël Barre, they should have been notified in October. As a reminder, disagreements over the industrial load and intellectual property have been in the news over the past few months...
Already, the first flight of an NGF demonstrator, previously expected for 2026, has been postponed by a year... And it is not excluded that this programme will experience further delays, whether for political or industrial reasons. This "would in no way be a strategic surprise in view of its complexity", underlined MP Christophe Lejeune in his latest report on the credits allocated to deterrence in the 2022 finance bill.
And even if the SCAF programme is spared such hazards, it is unlikely that the NGF will be able to carry out nuclear missions before 2050. This is, in any case, what the parliamentarian suggests, recalling that "several years have passed between the entry into service of the Rafale and its first nuclear alert" within the Strategic Air Forces [FAS].
"In short, the NGF will probably not carry out the nuclear mission before 2050, and in any case concurrently with the Rafale at first, like the pairing of the Rafale and the Mirage 2000N until the latter's withdrawal from service three years ago," writes Mr Lejeune.
Also, in view of technological developments, in particular in the area of A2/AD, the development of an F5 standard for the Rafale will be essential. In any case, the draftsman of the opinion has made this one of his points of attention for the future of the airborne component of the nuclear deterrent.
In his report he stresses "the importance of not overlooking the need for an aircraft with enhanced performance by 2035, the date on which the ASN 4G is expected to enter operational service" because, as General Laurent Rataud, Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programmes [SCPP] at the Air and Space Force [AAE] Staff, pointed out, "the Rafale will then have to face up to the challenges of the future, The Rafale will then have to face the most powerful ground-air defence systems, like the Russian S-500 and equivalent systems, and evolve in extremely scrambled environments, which will mean equipping it with electronic and navigational warfare means, as well as possibly powerful means of suppressing opposing air defences".
Mr Lejeune added: "This is why it is important to ensure that we have the means to develop a robust and effective F5 standard, especially as the SCAF NGF will probably not carry nuclear weapons as early as 2040."
That said, the Rafale's F5 standard is already being considered by the staffs. It "will enable us to further improve the Rafale's first entry capability, with new sensors and weapons, but also the ability to communicate, collaborate and be interoperable, General Frédéric Parisot, the AAE's major general, stated in a recent special issue of DSI magazine. "The contours of this standard have not yet been decided" but "in fifteen years' time, the Rafale will be equipped with an impressive number of capabilities, some of which we have not yet imagined", he added, without giving further details.
However, between F4 and F5 there will probably be F4.1....F4.5 with continued improvements in hardware.
In terms of production, you need to have an idea of the overall production to be achieved to set the production rate.
It will take 1 year to build the plant and set it up for production to start and continue for the first year. During the same year the factory will be further developed to be capable of production in years 2 and 3. It will therefore take 7 years to produce the first batch of Rafales.
1 year to build the factory, 3 years to produce the first Rafale and 3 more years to get to the last one. If this is for a batch of 57, that's a rate of 19 per year or 1.6 per month.
If it's for 100 that's a rate of 3 per month and that's the maximum. But maybe we'll want to spread the production over a longer period of time, we might want to produce 120 in 10 years to have more sustainable jobs.
In terms of production, you need to have an idea of the overall production to be achieved to set the production rate.
It will take 1 year to build the plant and set it up for production to start and continue for the first year. During the same year the factory will be further developed to be capable of production in years 2 and 3. It will therefore take 7 years to produce the first batch of Rafales.
1 year to build the factory, 3 years to produce the first Rafale and 3 more years to get to the last one. If this is for a batch of 57, that's a rate of 19 per year or 1.6 per month.
If it's for 100 that's a rate of 3 per month and that's the maximum. But maybe we'll want to spread the production over a longer period of time, we might want to produce 120 in 10 years to have more sustainable jobs.
Honestly, if we are to do something, it would make far more sense to order the Rafale for both the IN and IAF. Ask for the production to be in India over a period of time. Make the engine with the French for the AMCA.
1. Get the Mk1A and the Mk2 online. Get a roadmap in place for lifetime upgrades, realistically.
2. Tell HAL to get the CATS program up to speed. This will be a true game changer.
3. AMCA development continues and with engine tie-ups very much possible of meeting deadlines. Also, instead of AMCA Mk1 and Mk2, have intermediate upgrades possible.
4. Get Ghatak up and running on schedule. This is the second game changer. If we can scale this up in size we will have a true stealth penetration bomber. And like our ever optimist says, the economy will take care of the funds after 5 years.
Get on with it. I am 100% sure though, that we will buy Rafale 20% now, 20% late and 60% never. F-18 will come piecemeal. Then we will pay a cr@pload of money to get upgrades.
1. Get the Mk1A and the Mk2 online. Get a roadmap in place for lifetime upgrades, realistically.
2. Tell HAL to get the CATS program up to speed. This will be a true game changer.
3. AMCA development continues and with engine tie-ups very much possible of meeting deadlines. Also, instead of AMCA Mk1 and Mk2, have intermediate upgrades possible.
4. Get Ghatak up and running on schedule. This is the second game changer. If we can scale this up in size we will have a true stealth penetration bomber. And like our ever optimist says, the economy will take care of the funds after 5 years.
Get on with it. I am 100% sure though, that we will buy Rafale 20% now, 20% late and 60% never. F-18 will come piecemeal. Then we will pay a cr@pload of money to get upgrades.
Goi is a shameless creature who don't give respect to their own assurance, atleast we common indians should have shown some self respect by not asking such irrelevant query ( irrelevant in Indian context) to french people.
If my memory is correct @Picdelamirand-oil is giving reply, clarification on each and ever query on rafale from late 2000s, its been more than 12-13 years, why why why why more queries on Rafale again &again?
Dassault in talks to acquire stakes of Reliance in DRAL Nagpur ; Can roll out 2 Rafale aircraft per month
The French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation is in talks to buy out the stake of its partner Reliance in their joint-venture Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited (DRAL) that will make it a fully owned Dassault subsidiary.
The MRFA will not be executed under the strategic partnership model that required manufacturing of the jets in India from the raw material stage that involved complex transfer of technology.
The Indian Defense Ministry has already removed the offset clause that will also keep the price under check.
If the Rafale aircraft is selected under MRFA tender, then the Dassault Reliance Aerospace Facility (DRAL) could assemble 2 Rafale aircraft per month and will also carry out Rafale servicing at a new center at the facility by early 2023.
This! We need a steady adoption of tech from the outside until we don't have indigenous know-how here. Just see how clueless most of our private small arms companies are. Even the SSS guns look so shabby compared to what Americans are producing.
Like for the atgm program. I think both the spike deal for 8000 missiles by BDL and the mpatgm should be in tandem. We need two make a base for indigenous defence products and a private base where they can absorb foreign tech. Keep the Russians as partners for dpsu and ofb Joint venture.
I think he ll be happy to clarify.
With His knowledge about Rafale, he ll be able lock on to most probable outcome.
Anything about Rafale, I trust his opinion the most.
For 57 Rafale will you want one or Two new bases? taking into account that you already have two bases for only 36 Rafale.
Any other Indian company, I would feel not good, but for this Anil ambani, I actually feel better.
Mistake of Modi getting corrected here.
So Dassault from next year has capacity to be build 5 jets per month , when europe is scrambling to shore up defense.
@randomradio
randomradio were saying india needs 6 bases, 2 each in eastern side, north & western side.
So getting provisions for 2 bases in second contract is possible .
( that leaves 2 more bases for a third contract)
However single base in western side along Pakistan also possible giving 1 base each in all 3 sector s. . ( if there is no future contract)
@randomradio
We need a dedicated fighter base in A&N, with awacs cover. Also station few P-8I. But again, it will not be materialized. A&N should be our first line of defense against Chinese navy.
A&N first needs to get all the 4 airstrips fully upgraded to handle P8I flights. It will take some time. And when then TEDBF comes online, the F18/Rafale M will be moved to A&N. Along with a flight of MRTT aircraft. (Maybe 2). AWACS is a long shot. Will have to make do with Ka31s
Thats an island, we need proper AWCS coverage there. Once we completed our 360 deg AWACS development, IN must pursue that option in A&N.
I don't think comparing an older jet with LCA will be the right thing to do at this time. The Chinese are working on a new single engine jet too.
Yes, just like Sweden and Taiwan, not like the Israelis or Japanese.
It's not about the distance, it's about the capability of the jets in question. Air superiority is typically conducted by your best jet.
Not for the role you are assuming though. LCAs are suitable for some roles, but not across the board. So the 60M you are spending on the LCA is basically 60M lost for more important roles. If given the chance, the IAF will opt for the entire air force to be just one type, and the jet would be the most capable jet possible. Low end jets are used for the more simpler run-of-the-mill missions which will be replaced by drones in the future.
Most of the choices they are make out of compulsion.
It's way harder to kill an aircraft compared to a simple missile. It's because the Soviets couldn't build an aircraft that's survivable that they chose rocket forces. But the Russians are finding out the hard way in Ukraine that a rocket force is only sufficient to degrade civilian and unprotected military targets, not hardened military targets. It's the reason why the Uk AF is still flying. And without sophisticated air defences. You need to employ aircraft against hardened military targets.
They've withdrawn from INF now.
Look at USMC's Force Design 2030 - the Missile Marines are a thing now. PrSM is going to be an extremely important piece of the future US pacific theatre doctine against China. You have to start taking the hints when even the airpower-centric US starts considering precision guided missiles as an important part of winning future wars without bankrupting oneself.
Precision Strike Missile (PrSM)
The PrSM is our next-generation, long-range precision-strike missile designed for the U.S. Army’s PrSM program, delivering unparalleled long-range capabilities.www.lockheedmartin.com
We have the same plan though. The IA builds the IRF whereas the IAF concentrates on advanced aircraft. The same with the USAF, with the ground forces expanding their RFs and the USAF working on NGAD and B-21.
A missile like Brahmos carries a 200-300Kg warhead. Rafale can carry 4 500Kg bombs in just one sortie, and still come back for more. Plus it can hit the target reliably at much longer ranges. It can also perform BDA on its own. Then Brahmos has only a 15 year life, Rafale has 50. So, you'd need at least 3 sets of orders to keep up with 1 Rafale.
Cost breakdown: 1 Rafale costs $120M. Let's assume it can carry 4 500Kg bombs at 20k each, the JDAM kind, let's also assume the warhead is 300Kg, the same as the Brahmos. And over a 10-day period, 3 sorties a day, it can drop 120 bombs, costing $2.4M. Round it off to 5M to compensate for fuel and upkeep costs over 10 days. So that totals up to $130M for explosives weighing 36000Kg.
To get the same effect, we need 120 Brahmos costing $480M. So, during operations alone, Brahmos is beat by a massive margin. Let's not forget that you still get to keep the jet, while missiles are one use. Now bring in the 50-year life cycle, where you need 360 Brahmos just to match the capabilities of 1 Rafale. Just 1 Rafale. So you can see it becoming meaningless comparison.
And this comparison only considers the bomb truck ability of the jet, not all of its other capabilties that justifies its 120M price tag.
Funny isn't it, that you believe we have the money to buy 120 Brahmos at $480M, but you want the IAF to think many times just to buy 1 Rafale to match it?
A rocket force has its uses, but you need an advanced jet to take advantage of the damage delivered by the rocket forces. They go hand-in-hand.
Having an MRO facility is one thing, localisation of spares is a different matter altogether. For all the stuff we don't have ToT for, even if we have the MRO facilities, a large quantity of spares are still imported.
France has promised 100% ToT on the airframe and engine versus only 60% of the F414 by the Americans, which is still behind a big wall. So even those massive numbers of LCAs and ORCAs will depend on American supplies for the next 40-50 years. Otoh, we can make spares even for other Rafale export customers.
Ultimately yes... So I'd recommmend stop using your smartphone and computer until true Indian IP ultimately arrives. Would you do that? Your choice on this matter will help the country immensely in saving forex, as long as enough people do it.
This debate has never been about "cost-effective". Your primary jet should be numero uno no matter the cost. Cost-effective is for CAS, interdiction and logistics, not for air superiority, SEAD/DEAD and DPS.
Offsets are a failure, nothing's come out of them, which is why the govt's decided to remove it entirely. Dassault only needs 90 jets for full ToT.
Those are just rumours though. The IAF isn't interested in nuclear strikes.
The ToT can come in phases as orders are increased.
The first 57 could provide us full engine and airframe assembly lines, perhaps some production too, like wings, a fuselage section, engine cold parts etc. And the next 57 could bring the whole thing in.
Rafale's victory in both tenders would only make the transfer faster.
Yeah, the time wasted on SPM was a massive failure. P-75I is dying on its own merit, NUH cancelled, FRCV presumably going Indian under DRDO through the SPV process and of course OEMs wanting a different process instead of SPM for MRFA. In any case the economy wasn't ready for large scale inductions at the time compared to today.
DWP is for public consumption, we don't need it. It all happens internally, like our 30-year sub and artillery plan. Let's keep reminding ourselves that we are a Third World country with superpower level defence requirements. We will always be short of money, just like the US and China are.
For the primary jet, if the IAF says we need 200, then we need 200. Period. That's how it works there. They can compromise elsewhere, but they can't compromise their primary task.
And a deal without ToT doesn't help the IAF achieve its objectives. Buying a large number of jets without ToT is more suitable for countries that are not planning to fight wars.
The time frame will be different for 12 jets a year.
Start of contract = 2026.
First delivery = 2029.
Last delivery = 2034.
F5 completion = 2035.
First delivery of second batch = 2035.
End of second batch = 2040.
Somewhere some people will be pushing for ORCA too.
It's likely that the SH may not need a service life extension. The USN considers the SH to have a 30-year life at 9000+ hours. Their B2s finished 6000 hours in just 20 years. So we may very well end up flying like they do and push it out of service alongside the USN after 2055. An avionics upgrade could happen between 2040-45, alongside USN jets, so that's gonna be funded.
An Indian partner is necessary for the tender though.
Yeah, while the intention was good. GoI should have still supplied the forces with the weapons necessary at the minimum. GoI did not consider war as a possibility until the Russians invaded Ukraine. It's a very serious miscalculation.