Le Ministère des Armées veut co-developper le Rafale F5 avec le « Club Rafale » pour 2030
The French Ministry of Defence wants to co-develop the Rafale F5 with the "Club Rafale" by 2030
8th June 2023
When it was first presented, France's new Military Planning Act (Loi de Programmation Militaire 2024-2030) may have appeared dull and lacklustre, but it was considerably fleshed out during the parliamentary debates, both as a result of amendments from the parliamentarians themselves and through amendments or clarifications from the Ministry of the Armed Forces itself. Several key programmes were confirmed, such as the new-generation aircraft carrier, while the budget envelope was consolidated at €413 billion, and the Ministry of Defence opened the door to other opportunities, such as a second aircraft carrier or underwater combat drones.
The Rafale has also received a great deal of attention. A few days ago, the French Ministry of Defence presented an amendment to the French National Assembly aimed at providing a framework for programme developments, in particular for the F5 version, which is to have renewed data fusion capabilities, as well as new capabilities such as suppressing the enemy's anti-aircraft defences, and above all the ability to operate alongside combat drones developed from the Neuron programme.
However, while this amendment specified that work on the Rafale F5 and its combat drone should begin and be continued during the next LPM, everyone, including the CEO of Dassault Aviation, envisaged entry into service around 2035.
Questioned on this subject by the members of the Senate Committee on Armed Forces and International Affairs, the Minister for the Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecornu, yesterday presented a timetable, but also a programmatic approach, that was far more ambitious. Thus, according to the Minister, not part, but all of the R&D work to give birth to the Rafale F5 and the combat drone derived from the Neuron, will be carried out over the future 2024-2030 LPM, which assumes, as he explicitly confirmed, that the two aircraft will enter service in 2030, or at least at the very beginning of the LPM to follow.
This statement, while obviously more than welcome, was not the biggest surprise of the Minister's hearing. To develop and finance the new aircraft, the Minister intends to call on the Rafale Club, i.e. current operators (Egypt, Qatar, India, Greece) and future operators (Indonesia, Croatia, United Arab Emirates) of the aircraft, to participate in this critical development of the programme.
For the time being, this is probably just a potential opening mentioned by Sebastien Lecornu, but this announcement undeniably represents a profound paradigm shift for the Rafale programme, and more generally for the way in which France now sees the relationships it intends to maintain with the operators of its weapons systems.
Traditionally, France has divided its defence equipment customers into two broad categories. On the one hand, there are the partners, usually close European countries with whom the equipment is co-produced, as is the case with the United Kingdom in the field of missiles and war at sea, Germany and Spain in the field of combat aircraft and tanks, or Italy in the naval and ground-to-air missile fields.
The others are user customers, with whom it is possible to collaborate on an ad hoc basis, but who are almost never asked or even consulted when it comes to upgrading the equipment in service with the French armed forces.
This Manichean view of international relations in the field of defence equipment has often done a disservice to French exports, especially as other countries, such as Germany, Italy and the UK, are often much more flexible than Paris in this area. While media attention will probably focus on the new timetable for the Rafale F5 presented by the French Minister for the Armed Forces to the Senate, it is undoubtedly this shift that represents the most radical change in the offing, especially if it is subsequently extended beyond the Rafale programme alone.
In concrete terms, several current and future operators see the development of the Rafale F5 as both an operational and industrial opportunity. This is particularly true of Greece, which has an active aerospace industry, notably around the F-16. Egypt, and above all the United Arab Emirates, have shown great ambitions precisely to develop their respective defence aeronautics industries. Finally, while Qatar may also be interested in the subject, it is unlikely that Doha and Abu Dhabi will participate jointly in the same programme.
The shift in the commercial paradigm could potentially give a major new boost to French fighter exports in the years ahead
This approach could have a number of positive effects. Clearly, it will reduce the budgetary burden on the next LPM, which probably explains why the timetable has been revised to keep the budget constant. As Dassault Aviation is the undisputed prime contractor for these partners, it will be possible to apply the same collaboration matrix as that used for the Neuron programme, which produced excellent results.
Finally, it will make it possible to extend the industrial base and orders for new equipment, in particular UAVs and probably new aircraft, and thus ensure the Rafale's industrial activity and durability for the next decade and even beyond.
All that remains now is to extend this approach, which has been discussed many times in articles published on this site, to other programmes, so as to extend potential cooperation southwards, to the greatest benefit of the French defence industry and armed forces. We can only hope that this announcement will, in the months and years to come, develop into a real dynamic that will be extended to other French defence industrial and technological programmes.