MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

What is your favorite for MMRCA 2.0 ?

  • JSF F-35 Blk 4

    Votes: 22 11.6%
  • Rafale F4

    Votes: 152 80.0%
  • Eurofighter Typhoon T3

    Votes: 4 2.1%
  • Gripen E/F

    Votes: 4 2.1%
  • F-16 B70

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • SH F-18

    Votes: 8 4.2%
  • F-15EX

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    190

Picdelamirand-oil

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"All we want is obviously delivery dates for these aircraft that will allow the French Air Force to sustain this effort," explained General François Lecointre, the French Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces [CEMA], last October. "Therefore, either these two prospects are linked in time, and at that moment, the effort will be sustainable, or we will be unable to do so, at the risk of significant gaps in operational and organic terms," he added.
General François Lecointre is in his role when he expresses his fears, but these are more theoretical than real, in fact the information coming from our proposals to Finland shows us that the Rafale has an operational life of 9000 h and is capable of being used at a rate of 350 h over a month and 1000 h over a year! It is therefore likely that the limit in force in France of 250 h per year is only to protect the potential for a 30-year service life.

Under these conditions, 300 h per year could have been consumed. But as we did not know this, we consumed 250 hours per year!

We therefore have a "reserve" of hours that we have saved, which I will calculate approximately.

We produced operational aircraft for the air force from 2006 to 2016 (only 1 aircraft in 2017, I'm neglecting) that is 10 years, and we had 106 aircraft for the air force (and space). During this time we flew 10*106 * 250/2 = 132500 hrs to which we must add the last four years, i.e. 4*106*250= 106000 hrs, i.e. 238500 hrs in all (at the end of the year).

We saved 1/5 of this quantity, i.e. 47500 h.

This reserve allows us to ensure the transition to make the export deliveries. But even without this reserve we could manage the situation as explained below.

This transition would take 9 years: 3 years for the production of the new planes during which the remaining planes must consume more than their normal annual potential. 2 neutral years where the new aircraft would provide the extra hours that compensate for the levies and 4 years where the new aircraft would reimburse the hours that have been lost, allowing the old aircraft to consume less than their normal annual potential.

The "second-hand" sale to Greece is justified by the urgency of the need and it is therefore likely that we will choose aircraft that are as recent as possible. On the other hand, the second-hand sale to Croatia is justified by the need to lower the bill but without the urgency being as great, which gives a target of 2024 for the delivery of these aircraft.

There will remain in the Air Force 106 - 24 = 82 Aircraft which will have to ensure 106 *250 = 26500h or 323 hours per aircraft for 3 years, then new aircraft will be available which can be overused. They will have to provide 6,000 hours per year to compensate for the shortfall due to the levy. The first year we will produce 12 Rafale which means that we will have on average 6 to fly. We will limit ourselves to 500 hours per year for these new planes, which will only make up 3000 hours, so the 82 planes will have to fly 287 hours. The second year we will have an average of 15 planes available which will be able to produce 7500 h and thus the beginning of the under consumption of the 82 air force planes.

With the sale to Greece we will lose 7000*12 = 84000 hrs and with the sale to Croatia we will lose 4500 *12 = 54000 hrs, so we have to buy back 15 planes with 9000 hrs of potential, but we have decided to buy back 24 of them just to ensure the load at Dassault.
 

randomradio

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Falcon in his tweet, said it's mainly to tap into US MIC and it's diplomatic clout.

For India who don't even order in required numbers even at last minute, leasing numbers when required is a best fit.

Referring to the SH, considering the numbers that the IAF actually needs, tapping into the US stores for EDA transfers is quite impossible.

If we do not have the money for it, then the only choice today is to buy whatever we can afford and keep pushing the requirement further and further until we can afford it. For example, if we can't afford to sign the MRFA deal before 2025, then we simply have to buy 36 more Rafales and push the deal ahead by 3 more years with the aim of signing it by 2028.
 

randomradio

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I don't think we ll buy Mig 29 or additional Su 30 because of Caatsa and also hellfire tweet.. Unreliable Russian weapons with no major diplomatic clout.

CAATSA doesn't apply to existing inventories.

Similarly, even if we go for Su-57, it won't matter because GoI can argue that the deal predates CAATSA by a decade.

Then again, the US is only going to threaten us with CAATSA, they actually won't sanction us no matter what we buy from the Russians. But they will do their best to offer alternatives wherever possible.

We are going to buy second hand F18 as " Lease of block 3"

Stop gap until Tejas mk1A, Mk2, Tedbf & Amca all comes online.

Considering the numbers we need, a lease is going to become more expensive than we can afford. Plus we won't have ownership, which is a bad thing for frontline equipment because any loss will become extremely expensive. It's not the same situation for force multipliers.

Tejas, TEDBF and AMCA are not stopgaps for MRFA.

Rafale going to be the tip of spear for nuclear deterrence / short small war scenario s.

If we are stuck with just 36, then yeah. But the IAF still needs 200 jets of this class. So if it's not Rafale, it's gonna be Typhoon or SH. But the cheapest among the three is still Rafale, and also more advanced.

I do hope we take advantage of the next tranche of 36 rafales with no ISE / base / training requirements.

@randomradio

I hope so too. But, if given a choice, I'd much rather see a contract for 114 Rafale F4.2 instead.
Else we order 57 of these jets and move the entire Mig 29K's to IAF.

That can't be done. Just because the IAF and IN jets share the name, Mig-29, doesn't mean they are the same jets. The airframe design, engine and the insides of the aircraft along with avionics are different. Mig-29UPG and Mig-29K are two different aircraft. The IAF won't benefit with the transfer.
 
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randomradio

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India
General François Lecointre is in his role when he expresses his fears, but these are more theoretical than real, in fact the information coming from our proposals to Finland shows us that the Rafale has an operational life of 9000 h and is capable of being used at a rate of 350 h over a month and 1000 h over a year! It is therefore likely that the limit in force in France of 250 h per year is only to protect the potential for a 30-year service life.

Under these conditions, 300 h per year could have been consumed. But as we did not know this, we consumed 250 hours per year!

We therefore have a "reserve" of hours that we have saved, which I will calculate approximately.

We produced operational aircraft for the air force from 2006 to 2016 (only 1 aircraft in 2017, I'm neglecting) that is 10 years, and we had 106 aircraft for the air force (and space). During this time we flew 10*106 * 250/2 = 132500 hrs to which we must add the last four years, i.e. 4*106*250= 106000 hrs, i.e. 238500 hrs in all (at the end of the year).

We saved 1/5 of this quantity, i.e. 47500 h.

This reserve allows us to ensure the transition to make the export deliveries. But even without this reserve we could manage the situation as explained below.

This transition would take 9 years: 3 years for the production of the new planes during which the remaining planes must consume more than their normal annual potential. 2 neutral years where the new aircraft would provide the extra hours that compensate for the levies and 4 years where the new aircraft would reimburse the hours that have been lost, allowing the old aircraft to consume less than their normal annual potential.

The "second-hand" sale to Greece is justified by the urgency of the need and it is therefore likely that we will choose aircraft that are as recent as possible. On the other hand, the second-hand sale to Croatia is justified by the need to lower the bill but without the urgency being as great, which gives a target of 2024 for the delivery of these aircraft.

There will remain in the Air Force 106 - 24 = 82 Aircraft which will have to ensure 106 *250 = 26500h or 323 hours per aircraft for 3 years, then new aircraft will be available which can be overused. They will have to provide 6,000 hours per year to compensate for the shortfall due to the levy. The first year we will produce 12 Rafale which means that we will have on average 6 to fly. We will limit ourselves to 500 hours per year for these new planes, which will only make up 3000 hours, so the 82 planes will have to fly 287 hours. The second year we will have an average of 15 planes available which will be able to produce 7500 h and thus the beginning of the under consumption of the 82 air force planes.

With the sale to Greece we will lose 7000*12 = 84000 hrs and with the sale to Croatia we will lose 4500 *12 = 54000 hrs, so we have to buy back 15 planes with 9000 hrs of potential, but we have decided to buy back 24 of them just to ensure the load at Dassault.

You haven't considered SLEP though. IAF M2000s now give 11500 hours total after SLEP. And SLEP is much, much cheaper than buying the jets themselves.

Considering SLEP you can even double the number of flight hours of the newest airframes to compensate for the loss of 24 jets.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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You haven't considered SLEP though. IAF M2000s now give 11500 hours total after SLEP. And SLEP is much, much cheaper than buying the jets themselves.

Considering SLEP you can even double the number of flight hours of the newest airframes to compensate for the loss of 24 jets.
It's too early to consider SLEP, we need more experience to be efficient with a SLEP program, but it will come perhaps with the MLU in 2030.
 

Picdelamirand-oil

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LA FRANCE S'APPRÊTERAIT À SIGNER UN CONTRAT DE RAFALE AVEC LES EMIRATS ARABES UNIS

FRANCE IS SET TO SIGN A CONTRACT WITH THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Pascal Samama On 28/12/2020 at 10:01am

After Greece and Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates are said to be in discussions with France to equip themselves with Rafale. This contract could be signed by 2022.

If civil aviation is badly affected by the pandemic, on the military side, the contracts for the sale of aircraft are succeeding one another. According to La Tribune, Paris and Abu Dhabi are discussing a contract for Rafales.



Qatar's armed forces will eventually have 36 Rafale.

A few days ago, the commander of the UAE air force and air defence, General Ibrahim Nasser Mohamed Al Alawi, met in Paris with representatives of the Ministry of Armies to discuss this order.

For the time being, nothing is done. It is not known how many fighter planes could be ordered. But discussions between Paris and Abu Dhabi are "progressing well", according to sources who confided to the economic site.

An agreement for 2022
These sources only specify that this contract, if signed, will be signed before the 2022 presidential election as a reminder that the two predecessors of Emmanuel Macron had failed to sign an agreement discussed since 2008.

In the meantime, one contract follows another for Dassault's tricolour fighter jet. The order book already shows 96 orders until 2022, between India and Qatar.

Greece has signed for 12 Rafale and recently, on BFM Business, Florence Parly, Minister of the Armed Forces, unveiled a future order for 36 French fighters with Indonesia.

The minister also recalled discussions "with a great many countries", including Finland and Switzerland, who wish to renew their combat aircraft. "Calls for tenders have been launched and will most probably result next year," Florence Parly said.
 

randomradio

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It's too early to consider SLEP, we need more experience to be efficient with a SLEP program, but it will come perhaps with the MLU in 2030.

Right, but SLEP is guaranteed to happen. So if you include it in your figures for even a moderate 30-50% boost in airframe life, the amount of hours left will be pretty large. I'd say that with just 250 hours a year the Rafale airframe is not being used even close to its optimum level. With SLEP carried out at the end of 3 decades of its induction, we may see the Rafale operating for 50+ years easily, which is interestingly also the length of the maintenance contract India signed with DA.
 

randomradio

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LA FRANCE S'APPRÊTERAIT À SIGNER UN CONTRAT DE RAFALE AVEC LES EMIRATS ARABES UNIS

FRANCE IS SET TO SIGN A CONTRACT WITH THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Pascal Samama On 28/12/2020 at 10:01am

After Greece and Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates are said to be in discussions with France to equip themselves with Rafale. This contract could be signed by 2022.

If civil aviation is badly affected by the pandemic, on the military side, the contracts for the sale of aircraft are succeeding one another. According to La Tribune, Paris and Abu Dhabi are discussing a contract for Rafales.



Qatar's armed forces will eventually have 36 Rafale.

A few days ago, the commander of the UAE air force and air defence, General Ibrahim Nasser Mohamed Al Alawi, met in Paris with representatives of the Ministry of Armies to discuss this order.

For the time being, nothing is done. It is not known how many fighter planes could be ordered. But discussions between Paris and Abu Dhabi are "progressing well", according to sources who confided to the economic site.

An agreement for 2022
These sources only specify that this contract, if signed, will be signed before the 2022 presidential election as a reminder that the two predecessors of Emmanuel Macron had failed to sign an agreement discussed since 2008.

In the meantime, one contract follows another for Dassault's tricolour fighter jet. The order book already shows 96 orders until 2022, between India and Qatar.

Greece has signed for 12 Rafale and recently, on BFM Business, Florence Parly, Minister of the Armed Forces, unveiled a future order for 36 French fighters with Indonesia.

The minister also recalled discussions "with a great many countries", including Finland and Switzerland, who wish to renew their combat aircraft. "Calls for tenders have been launched and will most probably result next year," Florence Parly said.

Good. With just the UAE, French and Indonesian orders, DA will be forced to bring some of that production over to India. Perhaps either the entire Indonesian or UAE production will be assembled in India, or a mix of both. Both countries are important to Indian national security, so it would be good if India has some influence over these countries over the Rafale. Maybe ride on the French deal by tagging on some weapons to their Rafales that France isn't offering, like Brahmos-M and SAAW.

Look, @Ashwin, even the article mentions 2022, and in bold. Plus whatever I stated before has been backed up by none other than France's RM, both Siwss and Finnish tenders will see a result next year, hence a signature in 2022.
 
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Ashwin

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Good. With just the UAE, French and Indonesian orders, DA will be forced to bring some of that production over to India. Perhaps either the entire Indonesian or UAE production will be assembled in India, or a mix of both. Both countries are important to Indian national security, so it would be good if India has some influence over these countries over the Rafale. Maybe ride on the French deal by tagging on some weapons to their Rafales that France isn't offering, like Brahmos-M and SAAW.

Look, @Ashwin, even the article mentions 2022, and in bold. Plus whatever I stated before has been backed up by none other than France's RM, both Siwss and Finnish tenders will see a result next year, hence a signature in 2022.
Why do they need this if they are getting F-35 and already operate upgraded F-16s?
 

randomradio

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Why do they need this if they are getting F-35 and already operate upgraded F-16s?

Since when has the GCC's military purchases followed any kind of logic? They are not buying fighter jets, they are buying relationships.

Have you considered the UAE could become our first LCA Mk1A customer due to the use of Israeli avionics? This will allow the UAE to have indirect relations with the Israelis, as part of their ongoing normalisation of relations with them.

The UAE's purchases are interesting due to the dynamics of their relations with the West. They bought the F-16 and M2000 20 years ago, and they are repeating history with the purchase of F-35 and Rafale as successors to their previous contracts, hence continuing their relations with two major powers in the West. If they are allowed some day, they will buy Russian and Chinese jets as well.
 
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Ashwin

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Because the Rafale is much better than the F-16 and as far as the F-35 is concerned, it will never be engaged in dangerous missions for fear that the whole world will realise that it's a lemon.
That's a well-reasoned argument.
Since when has the GCC's military purchases followed any kind of logic? They are not buying fighter jets, they are buying relationships.

Have you considered the UAE could become our first LCA Mk1A customer due to the use of Israeli avionics? This will allow the UAE to have indirect relations with the Israelis, as part of their ongoing normalisation of relations with them.

The UAE's purchases are interesting due to the dynamics of their relations with the West. They bought the F-16 and M2000 20 years ago, and they are repeating history with the purchase of F-35 and Rafale as successors to their previous contracts, hence continuing their relations with two major powers in the West. If they are allowed some day, they will buy Russian and Chinese jets as well.
UAE is not SA or Qatar. They are quite reasonable.

Exporting LCA to UAE?

Calm Down Bernie Sanders GIF by GIPHY News
 

randomradio

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UAE is not SA or Qatar. They are quite reasonable.

Lol.

No such thing as reasonable when it comes to the GCC.

Exporting LCA to UAE?

 
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Ashwin

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Some unknown post from 2018. You are living in a cloud of confirmation bias.
 
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randomradio

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The boost to Trappier's career was a consequence of the sale of 60 Mirage aircraft to the UAE that he had completed after the death of the export manager at the time... He knows his contacts in the UAE well, very well.

UAE's political situation has also reached a point where they need to counter Qatar's Rafale purchase with their own. And I had pointed out sometime ago that they were likely waiting for the F4.2 instead of going for the F3R, explaining the delay in the signature of this deal.
 

Hydra

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UAE's political situation has also reached a point where they need to counter Qatar's Rafale purchase with their own. And I had pointed out sometime ago that they were likely waiting for the F4.2 instead of going for the F3R, explaining the delay in the signature of this deal.
What about IAF? Are we waiting for F4.2 versions for follow up orders?
 
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randomradio

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What about IAF? Are we waiting for F4.2 versions for follow up orders?

Can't say. We are not even sure if another deal for 36 will be signed, since the IAF will not want it interfering with the MRFA tender. But if we wait until 2022 or 2023 to sign the deal for 36, then we will be in F4.2 territory.

UAE is a special case, they will want the most advanced version possible. When their version of the F-16 and M2000 were inducted, both were the most advanced versions available globally. But IAF will likely even make do with another batch of 36 F3R if it will mean quicker inductions while leaving the F4.2 for MRFA.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Can't say. We are not even sure if another deal for 36 will be signed, since the IAF will not want it interfering with the MRFA tender. But if we wait until 2022 or 2023 to sign the deal for 36, then we will be in F4.2 territory.

UAE is a special case, they will want the most advanced version possible. When their version of the F-16 and M2000 were inducted, both were the most advanced versions available globally. But IAF will likely even make do with another batch of 36 F3R if it will mean quicker inductions while leaving the F4.2 for MRFA.

On the one hand we complain about declining squadron strength and XI Jinping making life difficult for us and
On the Other we dont order more planes

Have we got MANY hidden undeclared squadrons 😂
 
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